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Author Topic: Moose Draw Odds - 2012  (Read 6295 times)

Offline idahohuntr

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Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« on: May 02, 2013, 10:12:34 PM »
Draw odds for any moose - 2012 attached below.
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood..." - TR

Offline Ridgerunner

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Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2013, 10:29:59 PM »
Those are encouraging.  It's only OIL for a very select few with those kind of odds.

Offline Gringo31

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2013, 11:01:10 PM »
After 20 years you have a 1% chance of being drawn  :tup:
We must reject the idea that every time a law's broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions.
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Offline kentrek

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2013, 11:11:12 PM »
i think ive said this in other threads but when looking at this one needs to realize that those are the odds for you drawing "that" year and not all the years combined.. cumulative odds would reveal the once in a life time chances that the state offers

if the odds were 1% after 20 years of applying then it would take 2000 years to have 100% odds lol things are not that bad...yet lol

the best part about these types of odds is comparing two different units side by side with odds vs trophy quality..which i thought was pretty useful esp for deer and elk draws



good work idahohuntr   :tup:

Offline PolarBear

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2013, 11:11:33 PM »
So what are the odds after 28 years?   :bash:  I wish that I could transfer my OIL points to my daughter, only then might she be able to draw by the time she reaches 50 years old.
P&Y bucks & bulls, predators and any game fish that swims!!
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Offline kentrek

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2013, 11:22:58 PM »
sorry for making this confusing  but..

 for the odds for getting a tag after 20 years is each years odds added to each other..so from the first years odds all the way to the 20th years odds

small example

year 1 odds=.01
year 2 odds=.02
year3 odds=.03

odds for drawing once out of those three years is .06


hope this helps



Offline JoeE

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2013, 03:37:09 AM »
Ugh    :bash: ... This is why I'm going moose hunting in Alaska next year. How are the odds for a Shiras in Idaho?

Offline X-Force

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2013, 07:42:35 AM »
Depends on the unit but it only took my dad 2 years to draw a tag that consistently produces 40" bulls. I think he was the only permit holder to not harvest.
Homo sapiens hunting animals has been natural for the last 125,000 years.
So why is nature void of humans as an apex predator now natural?

Offline Ridgerunner

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Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2013, 07:58:39 AM »
Makes me appreciate my draw even more.  If a guy is serious about killing a Shiras there is no doubt he should be applying in Idaho every year , draw odds are so much better it's not even funny and it is close.  I think a lot of people apply because it's relatively cheap but as the years add up and the costs continue to climb you'll start seeing fewer applicants although not enough to make the odds decent.

Offline bobcat

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2013, 08:02:50 AM »
I'd like to but can't afford to buy the $2,200 Idaho moose tag.

Offline shanevg

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2013, 08:28:36 AM »
So you're saying there's a chance!   :chuckle: :chuckle:

I took the plunge for ID moose this year for exactly that reason. I want to hunt Shiras in my lifetime and $2200 is a heck of a lot cheaper than going to AK for a moose hunt.  Last year ID results were posted 5/18 and I'm counting down the days! 

Offline Gringo31

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Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2013, 08:33:43 AM »
I did the same Shane.

Good Luck'
We must reject the idea that every time a law's broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions.
-Ronald Reagan

Offline benhuntin

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Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2013, 08:35:39 AM »
So you're saying there's a chance!   :chuckle: :chuckle:

I took the plunge for ID moose this year for exactly that reason. I want to hunt Shiras in my lifetime and $2200 is a heck of a lot cheaper than going to AK for a moose hunt.  Last year ID results were posted 5/18 and I'm counting down the days!
what tag?  We put in also. Hope it's not the same one.
If it aint broke, dont fix it.

Offline Gringo31

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Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2013, 08:41:54 AM »
Unit 1-1
We must reject the idea that every time a law's broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions.
-Ronald Reagan

Offline benhuntin

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Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2013, 08:43:39 AM »
Unit 1-1
there goes those odds.  Good luck
If it aint broke, dont fix it.

Offline PolarBear

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2013, 08:51:59 AM »
I guess that I will have to look into hunting moose in Idaho.  My wife's relatives have 1,000 acres out of Sand Point that has a bunch of moose on it.
P&Y bucks & bulls, predators and any game fish that swims!!
Life is too short to settle for dinks!
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Offline HUNT

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2013, 09:26:08 AM »
Idaho has some great moose hunts for sure.   :tup:

Offline shanevg

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2013, 12:18:41 PM »
LOL, I applied 1-1 as well.  What hunt did you guys apply for?  9-15 - 11/15, 10/1 - 10/15, or 11/1 - 11/15?


Offline cmiller85

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2013, 12:26:33 PM »
Makes me appreciate my draw even more.  If a guy is serious about killing a Shiras there is no doubt he should be applying in Idaho every year , draw odds are so much better it's not even funny and it is close.

This is why I don't understand how most people can actually like our current point system. It's not hard to see how the system has absolutely destroyed the drawing odds for OIL tags.

Back in 1998 for instance, 2,139 applicants applied for 13 moose tags for 49 Degrees North A. This is 1 permit for every 164 applicants. After people started to catch on with the, at that time recently implemented, point system the number of applicants jumped substantially, and in 1999 the total number of applicants more than doubled with 5,300 applying for 13 permits; or 1 permit for every 407 applicants.

The number of applicants has steadily increased each year with the exception of 2006 where the number of applicants dipped slightly from 11,190 in 2005 to 10,800 total appliants for 49 Degrees North A. Moose permits were increased to 22, but this was still a worsening of the odds with 1 permit for every 490 applicants.

In 2011, the number of applicants peaked at 16,034 people applying for 22 permits. This is 1 permit for every 728 applicants. The number of applicants reduced in 2012 after WDFW doubled the cost of the permit application fees for OIL tags.

Now for the drawing odds. Looking at numbers Idahohuntr posted, only those with 17 points or more have odds better than they did in 1998; and not even drastically better but a little bit better. Those with 16 points are about the same and those with 15 points or less are worse off than when they started in 1998, so unless you got into the point game within the first 3 years, our system is screwing you. Those just now getting into the game might as well go play the WA lottery. As you can see from Idahohuntr's numbers, 49 Degrees North A applicants with 1 point had about 1 in 40,000 drawing odds.

All things being relatively equal and consistent, our system might actually better odds for those who faithfully apply every year, but things, obviously, did not stay consistent. People began to realize that if they didn't start applying to get thier points they would never draw in the future as their odds were getting worse by not applying. This obviously caused many people who would not have applied to initially to jump into the game and essentially start "Investing" in the possibility of a future hunt. This demand to jump in and begin investing in a future hunt caused the number of applicants to jump by nearly 14,000 in just 13 years while the number of permits issued went up by 9.

Long story short. Idaho knows whats up. Point systems suck. And there is nothing wrong with making people choose only 1 species in applying for a special permit.

Offline shanevg

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #19 on: May 03, 2013, 12:43:29 PM »
Makes me appreciate my draw even more.  If a guy is serious about killing a Shiras there is no doubt he should be applying in Idaho every year , draw odds are so much better it's not even funny and it is close.

This is why I don't understand how most people can actually like our current point system. It's not hard to see how the system has absolutely destroyed the drawing odds for OIL tags.

Back in 1998 for instance, 2,139 applicants applied for 13 moose tags for 49 Degrees North A. This is 1 permit for every 164 applicants. After people started to catch on with the, at that time recently implemented, point system the number of applicants jumped substantially, and in 1999 the total number of applicants more than doubled with 5,300 applying for 13 permits; or 1 permit for every 407 applicants.

The number of applicants has steadily increased each year with the exception of 2006 where the number of applicants dipped slightly from 11,190 in 2005 to 10,800 total appliants for 49 Degrees North A. Moose permits were increased to 22, but this was still a worsening of the odds with 1 permit for every 490 applicants.

In 2011, the number of applicants peaked at 16,034 people applying for 22 permits. This is 1 permit for every 728 applicants. The number of applicants reduced in 2012 after WDFW doubled the cost of the permit application fees for OIL tags.

Now for the drawing odds. Looking at numbers Idahohuntr posted, only those with 17 points or more have odds better than they did in 1998; and not even drastically better but a little bit better. Those with 16 points are about the same and those with 15 points or less are worse off than when they started in 1998, so unless you got into the point game within the first 3 years, our system is screwing you. Those just now getting into the game might as well go play the WA lottery. As you can see from Idahohuntr's numbers, 49 Degrees North A applicants with 1 point had about 1 in 40,000 drawing odds.

All things being relatively equal and consistent, our system might actually better odds for those who faithfully apply every year, but things, obviously, did not stay consistent. People began to realize that if they didn't start applying to get thier points they would never draw in the future as their odds were getting worse by not applying. This obviously caused many people who would not have applied to initially to jump into the game and essentially start "Investing" in the possibility of a future hunt. This demand to jump in and begin investing in a future hunt caused the number of applicants to jump by nearly 14,000 in just 13 years while the number of permits issued went up by 9.

Long story short. Idaho knows whats up. Point systems suck. And there is nothing wrong with making people choose only 1 species in applying for a special permit.

 :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah:

Offline Ridgerunner

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Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #20 on: May 03, 2013, 12:50:41 PM »
I saw somewhere in the early 90s our sheep units had only 20 or 30 applicants per tag, now look at things.  I do think it will swing eventually people will stop throwing money at species they won't draw especially now that the oil and quality categories are so expensive.  I mean that's $65 every year for minimal odds of drawing.  That will get old for people.  Then the aging population will also result in a decrease but reality is the odds are always going to be terrible in this state. 

Offline Ridgerunner

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Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2013, 12:52:24 PM »
I would like the department to split the moose seasons like Idaho does it.  That would create four hunts out of each unit, that would spread the applicants put more and help improve the odds perhaps a tiny bit.

Offline Gringo31

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2013, 12:53:54 PM »
Quote
LOL, I applied 1-1 as well.  What hunt did you guys apply for?
 

9-15 - 11/15
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Offline bobcat

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2013, 12:58:54 PM »
Well, it's the system we have. Don't like it? Don't apply. I agree using a point system with moose permits doesn't make sense. It should have just been left to a totally random draw like it used to be. But, this happened because of hunters complaining that they had more rights to these limited tags just because they had been applying for many years.

So like I said in another thread- please don't ask the state to "fix" the draw system. The only thing that will happen is they'll find a way to make it worse.

Offline cmiller85

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Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2013, 01:42:01 PM »
Well, it's the system we have. Don't like it? Don't apply. I agree using a point system with moose permits doesn't make sense. It should have just been left to a totally random draw like it used to be. But, this happened because of hunters complaining that they had more rights to these limited tags just because they had been applying for many years.

So like I said in another thread- please don't ask the state to "fix" the draw system. The only thing that will happen is they'll find a way to make it worse.

I agree that we shouldn't request the state to "fix" anything. They should just do away with it. But I don't buy the fact that a few hunter complaints is what led to the point system. I think the WDFW saw a way to make more money and used a few complaints as their reasoning, just like they did when they split the permit categories a couple of years ago. I don't doubt that some people wanted it that way but the WDFW isn't going to just listen to a few hunters like that. there was no overwhelming demand from hunters that I'm aware of, the department had something to gain.

A good example is the lighted nocking issue. It had something like 90% support from hunters (as I remember), but WDFW shot it down. It took a large majority several years to get them to finally give in to the pressure. The WDFW when to the point system and expanded categories because they wanted to, IMO. If they thought they could have sold a lighted nock permit then all it would likely have taken would be a short rant from one disgruntled bow hunter who lost his arrow to "convince" them it was an overwhelming public demand.  :chuckle:

 



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