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Author Topic: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded  (Read 56046 times)

Offline Buckjunkie

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #50 on: March 23, 2016, 07:28:04 PM »
This is funny. I have a friend that said he just dropped $10k in the goat raffle. Can't wait to see the new numbers.

Offline kentrek

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #51 on: March 23, 2016, 07:38:08 PM »
Your odds keep going down...sorry

Offline emac

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #52 on: March 23, 2016, 08:10:09 PM »
Bushcraft. If you win the raffle pick me, pick me to tag along. Hopefully I am the first to ask

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

With some luck, there will be plenty of room for extra glass on the mountain.  ;)
Well keep me in mind if you draw. But hopefully I am chasing my own goat

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk


Offline Buckjunkie

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #53 on: March 23, 2016, 08:14:59 PM »
The WDFW website doesn't reflect it yet, but the goat tag raffle got heavily flooded yesterday by a guy who still has some in reserve.  Evidently, WDFW only updates the website once a week.

As it stands now, it will take at least $25K to get 60% odds at this point if historical figures are any indication. And, at least $60K or more to get to 85%.  Of course, a guy that buys just one tag would win it all. Crazy.

Anyway, I'm just passing this along as a courtesy since it would suck for someone that's thinking about doing it to depend on WDFW's outdated website for the latest raffle tag count and then end up inadvertently screwing themselves on the odds...and whoever else that already laid down some dough for mountain goat conservation.

I will challenge your math:

$25,000 to get 60% odds means there is a total of $16,666 including the 147 that already show on WDFW's website.

$60,000 to get 85% odds means there is a total of $10,588 including the 147 showing.

Both can't be true?

Offline Bango skank

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #54 on: March 23, 2016, 08:18:41 PM »
Ive never bought raffle tickets, but despite my wish to give wdfw as little money as possible im having a hard time not buying a handful of moose tickets.  I really want a wa moose tag!  This thread isnt helping.

Offline Rainier10

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #55 on: March 23, 2016, 08:31:21 PM »
Ive never bought raffle tickets, but despite my wish to give wdfw as little money as possible im having a hard time not buying a handful of moose tickets.  I really want a wa moose tag!  This thread isnt helping.
:yeah:
This thread has inspired me to get involved in one or more of these raffles.

that is why i think this is going to be so interesting to watch.
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Offline Bushcraft

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #56 on: March 23, 2016, 08:35:43 PM »
The WDFW website doesn't reflect it yet, but the goat tag raffle got heavily flooded yesterday by a guy who still has some in reserve.  Evidently, WDFW only updates the website once a week.

As it stands now, it will take at least $25K to get 60% odds at this point if historical figures are any indication. And, at least $60K or more to get to 85%.  Of course, a guy that buys just one tag would win it all. Crazy.

Anyway, I'm just passing this along as a courtesy since it would suck for someone that's thinking about doing it to depend on WDFW's outdated website for the latest raffle tag count and then end up inadvertently screwing themselves on the odds...and whoever else that already laid down some dough for mountain goat conservation.

I will challenge your math:

$25,000 to get 60% odds means there is a total of $16,666 including the 147 that already show on WDFW's website.

$60,000 to get 85% odds means there is a total of $10,588 including the 147 showing.

Both can't be true?

Sorry for any confusion.  It was quickie math for the purpose of brevity.  I'm including another 4K in reserve plus 500ish tags bought by others in increments.  Here's a chart of diminishing returns.

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Offline Tbar

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #57 on: March 23, 2016, 08:42:16 PM »
Good luck.  This would be an amazing hunt.

Offline Buckjunkie

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #58 on: March 23, 2016, 08:43:16 PM »
Good Luck!

Offline jkthomps

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #59 on: March 23, 2016, 08:45:41 PM »
The WDFW website doesn't reflect it yet, but the goat tag raffle got heavily flooded yesterday by a guy who still has some in reserve.  Evidently, WDFW only updates the website once a week.

As it stands now, it will take at least $25K to get 60% odds at this point if historical figures are any indication. And, at least $60K or more to get to 85%.  Of course, a guy that buys just one tag would win it all. Crazy.

Anyway, I'm just passing this along as a courtesy since it would suck for someone that's thinking about doing it to depend on WDFW's outdated website for the latest raffle tag count and then end up inadvertently screwing themselves on the odds...and whoever else that already laid down some dough for mountain goat conservation.

I will challenge your math:

$25,000 to get 60% odds means there is a total of $16,666 including the 147 that already show on WDFW's website.

$60,000 to get 85% odds means there is a total of $10,588 including the 147 showing.

Both can't be true?

Sorry for any confusion.  It was quickie math for the purpose of brevity.  I'm including another 4K in reserve plus 500ish tags bought by others in increments.  Here's a chart of diminishing returns.
This is a start but what is your input data? Where is your margin for error?  What are you entering for unknown number of tags for others? Are you using a law of large numbers or past 5 year tags sold, 10 year?  I need more info lol.

I like the graph, but it doesn't help without knowing your input factors. Details man detail ;)

Offline jkthomps

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #60 on: March 23, 2016, 08:47:16 PM »
Nevermind, I read your post again, I blame tapatalk for only showing the graph until I quoted it... You might have even played it safe with your info.

Nice work!

Offline actionshooter

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #61 on: March 23, 2016, 09:09:57 PM »
Thanks for reminding me I still need to buy some tickets...... :chuckle:
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Offline RadSav

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #62 on: March 23, 2016, 09:17:12 PM »
This is funny. I have a friend that said he just dropped $10k in the goat raffle. Can't wait to see the new numbers.

I've been thinking of dropping $6K in the drawing.

But if someone wanted to give me $2,000 of their reserve gambling money I could be persuaded to put it on a sheep or moose tag instead. :chuckle:
« Last Edit: March 23, 2016, 09:28:32 PM by RadSav »
He asked, Do you ever give a short simple answer?  I replied, "Nope."

Offline DOUBLELUNG

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #63 on: March 24, 2016, 03:44:30 PM »
I buy 1 ticket.  My odds are infinitely better with 1 than 0 tickets, and I can't buy enough tickets to improve my odds appreciably.  1 ticket keeps the dream alive until the raffle is drawn.
As long as we have the habitat, we can argue forever about who gets to kill what and when.  No habitat = no game.

Offline jkthomps

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #64 on: March 24, 2016, 03:55:12 PM »
I buy 1 ticket.  My odds are infinitely better with 1 than 0 tickets, and I can't buy enough tickets to improve my odds appreciably.  1 ticket keeps the dream alive until the raffle is drawn.
I like your logical optimistic thinking. I hope you win with one ticket! That would be awesome!

Offline rosscrazyelk

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #65 on: March 24, 2016, 04:15:06 PM »
Good luck bushcraft on your  mission. I wish you well.
If its brown knock it down

Offline Bango skank

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #66 on: March 24, 2016, 05:05:18 PM »
So im a sucker, just bought raffle tickets.  Got a new license printed out but no actual numbers.  Is this normal?  Was i supposed to get numbers??

Offline Bushcraft

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #67 on: March 24, 2016, 07:32:08 PM »
Thanks for the well wishes everyone.  I appreciate it and am keeping my fingers crossed.

Anyone that wants to wear out some boots and help glass is welcome to come along and scout if I luck out on the draw.   :tup:

So im a sucker, just bought raffle tickets.  Got a new license printed out but no actual numbers.  Is this normal?  Was i supposed to get numbers??

There should be some numbers at the bottom of your receipt.  PM me if you like.

Regards,

Allen

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Offline MLBowhunting

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #68 on: March 24, 2016, 08:02:43 PM »
Awesome,  way to put the odds in your favor :tup:.  It's a dream hunt of mine for sure and I hope youdo get the raffle and keep us all ininformed.   Best of luck.
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Offline Bushcraft

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #69 on: March 24, 2016, 08:12:48 PM »
Awesome,  way to put the odds in your favor :tup:.  It's a dream hunt of mine for sure and I hope youdo get the raffle and keep us all ininformed.   Best of luck.

Thank you!
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Offline Bango skank

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #70 on: March 24, 2016, 08:15:14 PM »
I see em now, thanks

Offline bearpaw

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #71 on: March 24, 2016, 08:16:58 PM »
Good luck to whomever draws the tag, it will be a great hunt, hopefully we'll get to read the story. Goat tags have really gone up in demand, I wished I could have afforded a governor tag 5 or 10 years ago. I'll probably have to go to Alaska or BC someday, it's cheaper up there.
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Offline Bushcraft

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #72 on: March 24, 2016, 08:20:19 PM »
Dale,

Cheaper and better genetics.  If this doesn't work out, I'm headed to B.C.

Regards,

Allen
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Online The scout

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #73 on: March 24, 2016, 08:26:19 PM »
shearer?

Offline jkthomps

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Re: Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded
« Reply #74 on: March 24, 2016, 11:19:19 PM »
Dale,

Cheaper and better genetics.  If this doesn't work out, I'm headed to B.C.

Regards,

Allen
You and me both! Good luck on this!