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Author Topic: moose 10 pts or less?  (Read 14841 times)

Offline wheels

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moose 10 pts or less?
« on: May 03, 2017, 12:36:51 AM »
can it be done just curios on odds thanks

Offline bowhunterforever

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2017, 12:46:58 AM »
Yes it can be done just gotta get lucky
You sure you know how to skin griz pilgram

Offline huntnnw

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2017, 01:04:37 AM »
Points mean absolutely nothing when your dealing with so few tags and way to many applicants

Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2017, 03:00:48 AM »
Odds are somewhere around 1 in 1000 likely but yes it can be done


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Offline ctwiggs1

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2017, 05:27:50 AM »
You could put in every year of your life and not get drawn.

You could also get drawn your first year. 

Good luck! :tup:

Offline benhuntin

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2017, 07:37:53 AM »
Happens every year.


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If it aint broke, dont fix it.

Online teanawayslayer

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2017, 07:43:21 AM »
Points don't matter in this state. Had a buddy draw any moose with 5.
Happiness is being in the woods!!!

Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2017, 07:46:53 AM »
If you apply for four "any moose" hunt choices, I compute your odds to be around 1 in 200 of drawing one of them with ten points.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline Duckgtr

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2017, 08:08:08 AM »
I had to

Offline 3boys

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2017, 08:13:10 AM »
Happens every year.


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Yes it does! I drew with 8

Offline BeerBugler

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2017, 08:39:16 AM »
Building special permit points gives applicants a better chance in the random drawings. Each special permit category has a separate drawing.

The special permit drawing system is similar to pulling tickets out of a barrel. Building points gives an applicant more tickets. The system also squares points. That means a person with one point ends up with one entry (1x1=1) and a person with 10 points ends up with 100 entries (10x10=100).

The system randomly pulls out all these tickets in order. At the end, each application will keep and use the lowest number it drew. Lower numbers are better in this case, as an application assigned the number one earns the first overall pick. With more points, an application has a better chance of drawing a better pick.

You'll have a hundred tickets in the barrel.....but it's a big ass barrel!


Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2017, 09:12:13 AM »
I ran a more precise estimate of the odds of drawing an “any moose” permit. My assumption was that the applicant applied for four hunt choices: (1) 49 Degrees North A Early, (2) 49 Degrees North A Late, (3) Selkirk, (4) Kettle Range. (The order does not matter in overall draw odds.)

I computed the estimated odds of drawing one of the four choices at various applicant point levels as shown here:

-   1 point: 1 in 13,270
-   5 points: 1 in 530
-   10 points: 1 in 135
-   15 points: 1 in 60
-   20 points: 1 in 35
-   24 points: 1 in 25

It's very easy to compute the odds of drawing if one doesn't apply.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline Magnum_Willys

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2017, 09:20:31 AM »
I ran a more precise estimate of the odds of drawing an “any moose” permit. My assumption was that the applicant applied for four hunt choices: (1) 49 Degrees North A Early, (2) 49 Degrees North A Late, (3) Selkirk, (4) Kettle Range. (The order does not matter in overall draw odds.)

I computed the estimated odds of drawing one of the four choices at various applicant point levels as shown here:

-   1 point: 1 in 13,270
-   5 points: 1 in 530
-   10 points: 1 in 135
-   15 points: 1 in 60
-   20 points: 1 in 35
-   24 points: 1 in 25

It's very easy to compute the odds of drawing if one doesn't apply.

So with 15 points I shouldn't worry about camp reservations just yet ?  Odds look just slightly worse than drawing Wenaha - arghhhhh

Offline sagerat

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2017, 09:43:43 AM »
Yeah and then think about your odds of actually finding the bull you want... Those big coyotes up there haven't made it any easier.

Offline Ridgerunner

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2017, 12:34:01 PM »
It's cheap to dream, apply and hope to get lucky. 


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