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Author Topic: moose 10 pts or less?  (Read 9381 times)

Offline wheels

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moose 10 pts or less?
« on: May 03, 2017, 12:36:51 AM »
can it be done just curios on odds thanks

Offline bowhunterforever

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2017, 12:46:58 AM »
Yes it can be done just gotta get lucky
You know how to skin griz pilgram

Offline huntnnw

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2017, 01:04:37 AM »
Points mean absolutely nothing when your dealing with so few tags and way to many applicants

Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2017, 03:00:48 AM »
Odds are somewhere around 1 in 1000 likely but yes it can be done


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Offline ctwiggs1

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2017, 05:27:50 AM »
You could put in every year of your life and not get drawn.

You could also get drawn your first year. 

Good luck! :tup:

Offline benhuntin

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2017, 07:37:53 AM »
Happens every year.


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Offline teanawayslayer

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2017, 07:43:21 AM »
Points don't matter in this state. Had a buddy draw any moose with 5.
Happiness is being in the woods!!!

Online Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2017, 07:46:53 AM »
If you apply for four "any moose" hunt choices, I compute your odds to be around 1 in 200 of drawing one of them with ten points.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline Duckgtr

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2017, 08:08:08 AM »
I had to

Offline 3boys

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2017, 08:13:10 AM »
Happens every year.


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Yes it does! I drew with 8

Offline BeerBugler

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2017, 08:39:16 AM »
Building special permit points gives applicants a better chance in the random drawings. Each special permit category has a separate drawing.

The special permit drawing system is similar to pulling tickets out of a barrel. Building points gives an applicant more tickets. The system also squares points. That means a person with one point ends up with one entry (1x1=1) and a person with 10 points ends up with 100 entries (10x10=100).

The system randomly pulls out all these tickets in order. At the end, each application will keep and use the lowest number it drew. Lower numbers are better in this case, as an application assigned the number one earns the first overall pick. With more points, an application has a better chance of drawing a better pick.

You'll have a hundred tickets in the barrel.....but it's a big ass barrel!


Online Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2017, 09:12:13 AM »
I ran a more precise estimate of the odds of drawing an “any moose” permit. My assumption was that the applicant applied for four hunt choices: (1) 49 Degrees North A Early, (2) 49 Degrees North A Late, (3) Selkirk, (4) Kettle Range. (The order does not matter in overall draw odds.)

I computed the estimated odds of drawing one of the four choices at various applicant point levels as shown here:

-   1 point: 1 in 13,270
-   5 points: 1 in 530
-   10 points: 1 in 135
-   15 points: 1 in 60
-   20 points: 1 in 35
-   24 points: 1 in 25

It's very easy to compute the odds of drawing if one doesn't apply.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline Magnum_Willys

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2017, 09:20:31 AM »
I ran a more precise estimate of the odds of drawing an “any moose” permit. My assumption was that the applicant applied for four hunt choices: (1) 49 Degrees North A Early, (2) 49 Degrees North A Late, (3) Selkirk, (4) Kettle Range. (The order does not matter in overall draw odds.)

I computed the estimated odds of drawing one of the four choices at various applicant point levels as shown here:

-   1 point: 1 in 13,270
-   5 points: 1 in 530
-   10 points: 1 in 135
-   15 points: 1 in 60
-   20 points: 1 in 35
-   24 points: 1 in 25

It's very easy to compute the odds of drawing if one doesn't apply.

So with 15 points I shouldn't worry about camp reservations just yet ?  Odds look just slightly worse than drawing Wenaha - arghhhhh

Offline sagerat

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2017, 09:43:43 AM »
Yeah and then think about your odds of actually finding the bull you want... Those big coyotes up there haven't made it any easier.

Offline Ridgerunner

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2017, 12:34:01 PM »
It's cheap to dream, apply and hope to get lucky. 


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Offline stickman999

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2017, 12:48:56 PM »
I drew Selkirk with 4.

Offline wheels

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2017, 02:22:37 PM »
thanks im sitting on 9 or 10 not counting this year  in all but  65 and youth

Offline teanawayslayer

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2017, 03:16:02 PM »
I drew Selkirk with 4.
lets see what 4 points got you!
Happiness is being in the woods!!!

Offline steeleywhopper

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2017, 02:07:23 AM »
Took my Grandfather until he was 83 yrs old to draw a Washington Cow Moose Permit and took him to 86 yrs old to draw the Washington Any Moose Permit. He passed away 6 Months after he killed his bull. Good luck to us all and I hope I don't have to wait until I'm in my 80's to draw a Moose Permit.

Offline Skyvalhunter

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2017, 05:08:27 AM »
Well I am just thankful your grandfather was able to draw the permit Steve before he passed on.

Offline Magnum_Willys

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2017, 07:08:34 AM »
thanks im sitting on 9 or 10 not counting this year  in all but  65 and youth
Each year the average number of points goes up and because its squared that means if you are below average number of points your odds actually decrease each year  :yike:  I think the average was around 8 ? so at least your odds aren't dropping.   :tup: Just a lil luck needed. 

Offline Dhoey07

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2017, 07:35:26 AM »
I quit applying with 5 points, just after they upped the the app fee.

Offline stickman999

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #22 on: May 04, 2017, 10:28:42 AM »
I drew Selkirk with 4.
lets see what 4 points got you!

I heard this bull late the previous day in a swampy area I located on a map so the next morning I snuck in and did a little cow call and he came in hot right to me. Maybe  a 40 yard shot. My only regret is I didn't call him closer to the road.

Offline Ridgerunner

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #23 on: May 04, 2017, 11:44:55 AM »
I drew with 10 points.  But that was 9 years ago when I was only 3 off max. 

Offline 180-GRAIN

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2017, 10:18:33 AM »
I drew 49 in 2009. 7 points

 

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