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I'll have 20 points this year. But have had my cousin draw his first ever year putting in. Another year my dad and brother both got drawn and they weren't partners. You just never know when it's your time to get lucky.

Quote from: bobcat on May 13, 2017, 12:53:34 PMQuote from: andrew_in_idaho on May 13, 2017, 11:23:40 AMMy dad is one of about 4 people who has put in every year since the point system started and still not drawn(any moose)Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkOnly 4 people? I think there's a whole lot more people than that who have been applying for moose since the point system started and haven't drawn. I'm thinking maybe more like 4 hundred people.

Quote from: andrew_in_idaho on May 13, 2017, 11:23:40 AMMy dad is one of about 4 people who has put in every year since the point system started and still not drawn(any moose)Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkOnly 4 people? I think there's a whole lot more people than that who have been applying for moose since the point system started and haven't drawn. I'm thinking maybe more like 4 hundred people.

My dad is one of about 4 people who has put in every year since the point system started and still not drawn(any moose)Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

Quote from: Bob33 on May 14, 2017, 01:04:54 PMThere are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?

Quote from: Bullkllr on May 14, 2017, 01:24:08 PMQuote from: Bob33 on May 14, 2017, 01:04:54 PMThere are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.

Quote from: Bob33 on May 14, 2017, 02:13:31 PMQuote from: Bullkllr on May 14, 2017, 01:24:08 PMQuote from: Bob33 on May 14, 2017, 01:04:54 PMThere are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.That makes sense So in many categories (less for OILs), a lot with the top points seem to be doing "points only" then.

Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat. Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%. There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew. This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

Quote from: Stein on May 14, 2017, 03:47:42 PMAny way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat. Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%. There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew. This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rateSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote from: andrew_in_idaho on May 14, 2017, 06:18:16 PMQuote from: Stein on May 14, 2017, 03:47:42 PMAny way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat. Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%. There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew. This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rateSent from my iPhone using TapatalkApplicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

Quote from: Bob33 on May 14, 2017, 06:21:31 PMQuote from: andrew_in_idaho on May 14, 2017, 06:18:16 PMQuote from: Stein on May 14, 2017, 03:47:42 PMAny way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat. Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%. There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew. This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rateSent from my iPhone using TapatalkApplicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.I would venture to guess that the 3 extra names in the hat is far outweighed by the 1000's of people who are gaining an extra 10 or 20 names in the hat. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk