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Author Topic: moose 10 pts or less?  (Read 8005 times)

Offline Bullkllr

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #50 on: May 14, 2017, 01:24:08 PM »
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?

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Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #51 on: May 14, 2017, 01:42:18 PM »
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?
I'm thinking if you don't ultimately draw a tag they count you as unsuccessful in the summary yes.


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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #52 on: May 14, 2017, 02:13:31 PM »
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?
The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline Stein

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #53 on: May 14, 2017, 03:47:42 PM »
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

Offline Bullkllr

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #54 on: May 14, 2017, 04:12:31 PM »
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?
The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.

That makes sense  :tup:

So in many categories (less for OILs), a lot with the top points seem to be doing points only. Someone has 29 points for antlerless elk, and bought another point. In fact, only 1 of the 33 with 20 or more points didn't do points only for antlerless elk (and didn't draw Pine Mtn. Ranch fwiw). Plausible; still seems a bit weird.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2017, 04:31:50 PM by Bullkllr »
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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #55 on: May 14, 2017, 04:25:25 PM »
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?
The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.

That makes sense  :tup:

So in many categories (less for OILs), a lot with the top points seem to be doing "points only" then.
That is most likely the case. In addition, some applicants with maximum points have a bias. They are applying for the most difficult to draw hunts, and possibly only applying for one hunt choice versus multiple hunts.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #56 on: May 14, 2017, 06:18:16 PM »
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #57 on: May 14, 2017, 06:21:31 PM »
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #58 on: May 14, 2017, 07:07:28 PM »
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

I would venture to guess that the 3 extra names in the hat is far outweighed by the 1000's of people who are gaining an extra 10 or 20 names in the hat.


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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #59 on: May 14, 2017, 07:14:04 PM »
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

I would venture to guess that the 3 extra names in the hat is far outweighed by the 1000's of people who are gaining an extra 10 or 20 names in the hat.


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On average, the total number of "names in the hat" for quality hunts increases by about 15% per year. Someone with one point gets 300% more points going from year one to year two, and thus gains ground. Someone with 20 points gets only 10% more points going from year 20 to year 21 (400 to 441), and thus loses ground.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline Miles

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #60 on: May 19, 2017, 08:46:47 AM »
I wouldn't waste my time applying for WA moose.  There are better options, that include hunting moose before you die of old age.

Offline Skyvalhunter

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #61 on: May 19, 2017, 09:54:01 AM »
 :chuckle:

Offline huntnnw

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #62 on: May 22, 2017, 05:37:43 AM »
I wouldn't waste my time applying for WA moose.  There are better options, that include hunting moose before you die of old age.

 :yeah: pony up the money for ID.. You will be moose hunting in a few years

Offline Skyvalhunter

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #63 on: May 22, 2017, 05:40:21 AM »
Apply as you are not out much money if you do and you might end up being lucky

Offline Ridgeratt

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #64 on: May 22, 2017, 06:01:01 AM »
Here are the 2016 stats. Some of the tags went to folks with 2 or 3 points.
It's a Lottery.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016category_points_anymoose.pdf

Offline jkononen

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #65 on: May 25, 2017, 02:01:22 PM »
Here are the 2016 stats. Some of the tags went to folks with 2 or 3 points.
It's a Lottery.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016category_points_anymoose.pdf
The 2 and 3 point winners for 49 degrees north we're a 10 year old and a 11 or 12 year old. Both from Skagit valley.
we live for the nights we never remember with the people we'll never forget

Offline smithjacksonsublette

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #66 on: June 28, 2017, 08:14:58 PM »
My 11 year old drew 124 with 3 points. From north Snoho. Not sure what youth odds are but that seems pretty good to me.

Offline PA BEN

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #67 on: July 10, 2017, 06:38:36 PM »
I drew 49 any moose in 2008 w 10 points.

Offline sure shot

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #68 on: September 17, 2017, 07:18:16 PM »
I drew an any moose in 49 deg, north this Oct. with 9 points.

Offline Buckblaster

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #69 on: September 19, 2017, 12:45:37 PM »
Wow, I'm one of the 4 max-point holders, but it still doesn't guarantee me a tag.  Thinking that I may never draw a moose tag in this state, I put in for Wyoming moose points for 15 years before I finally had enough preference points to draw there.  In 2015, I cashed in my points and shot a 38" bull, which wasn't huge, but I took home 300 lbs of boned out meat, and I couldn't be happier. 
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Offline bobcat

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #70 on: September 19, 2017, 01:26:09 PM »
Max points right now is 22, and the data posted was from the previous year, so it looks like there are 310 people with "max points."

Offline Buckblaster

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #71 on: September 19, 2017, 01:41:51 PM »
Sorry, I assumed I had max since I haven't missed a moose application since the early 1990's, but I looked up my points, and I in fact have only 22 points.  I am still not encouraged that I'll draw a tag any time soon. 
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Offline Falcon

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #72 on: September 19, 2017, 03:05:17 PM »
Max points right now is 22, and the data posted was from the previous year, so it looks like there are 310 people with "max points."

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Offline Buckblaster

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #73 on: September 19, 2017, 03:11:26 PM »
If the top points were actually preference points, the odds for getting one of the 103 any moose tags would be about 1 in 3.  The bonus point system is worthless.
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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #74 on: September 19, 2017, 03:31:28 PM »
Max points right now is 22, and the data posted was from the previous year, so it looks like there are 310 people with "max points."
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

 

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