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Author Topic: Mule deer permit hunt  (Read 31292 times)

Offline tjgerm

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Mule deer permit hunt
« on: March 04, 2011, 08:00:54 PM »
Ben accumilating points over the years and now feel fairly confident in drawing been interested in Perragin. What gmu do you think would be the best chance at harvesting a once in a lifetime mule deer during a special permit hunt??

Offline mack2255

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2011, 08:05:49 PM »
Go North way north :chuckle:
Sincerly...Buckwheat

Online bobcat

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2011, 08:07:11 PM »
First we need to know how many points you have.   :)

Offline tjgerm

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2011, 08:16:57 PM »
9

Offline Skyvalhunter

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2011, 08:18:08 PM »
How far off the road r u willing to hunt?

Offline tjgerm

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2011, 08:20:52 PM »
Anwhere I can hike and get back in the same day

Offline jackelope

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2011, 08:22:12 PM »
What weapon?
:fire.:

" In today's instant gratification society, more and more pressure revolves around success and the measurement of one's prowess as a hunter by inches on a score chart or field photos produced on social media. Don't fall into the trap. Hunting is-and always will be- about the hunt, the adventure, the views, and time spent with close friends and family. " Ryan Hatfield

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Offline tjgerm

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2011, 08:23:54 PM »
Modern

Online Bigshooter

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2011, 08:30:13 PM »
I have 10 points and I don't plan on drawing anytime soon with the luck I have in WA draws.
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Offline Skyvalhunter

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2011, 08:31:15 PM »
theres always hope

Online Bigshooter

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2011, 08:33:21 PM »
theres always hope

what about change?  :chuckle:
"Thou shalt not speak ill of any Republican."

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Offline Skyvalhunter

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2011, 08:34:36 PM »
 :chuckle: This just has to be your year!!

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2011, 08:36:01 PM »
If I draw a late mule deer tag this year I will  :'(  tears of joy.
"Thou shalt not speak ill of any Republican."

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2011, 08:44:09 PM »
You say you feel fairly confident in drawing, because you have 9 points? Well then you must not understand how bad your odds really are. The Pearrygin had 1854 applications for 15 permits last year for odds of 1 in 124. That means you should expect to draw once in 124 years of applying. If you've only applied for 9 years you have a long way to go. The problem is there are lots of people with just as many points as you have, or more. Many people will have 16 points this year. So your 9 points really doesn't help you a whole lot. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but it's the truth. If you want a little better odds apply for Chewuch. It was 1 in 66 last year, so almost twice as much chance of drawing as the Pearrygin.

Offline Skyvalhunter

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2011, 09:04:09 PM »
not totally right
Washington's system places a multiplier on the points. The number of points is squared and it is this number of random numbers that are issued to the application (or number of cards in the barrel). If a person applies for an elk permit for the first time, they have one card in the barrel. If a person has built up two points, they have four cards in the barrel. If a person has three points built up, nine cards are in the barrel and so on.

Placing a multiplier on the points more noticeably increases the chances of being selected over someone who is a new applicant or was recently awarded a permit.


Offline jackelope

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2011, 09:06:54 PM »
Right...with the multiplier, I don't know how you can accurately calculate the odds. Some seem to think you can but I've never been able to figure it out...way too many variables. I'm all ears if someone wants to explain it to me...I used to be a math geek.
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Online Bigshooter

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2011, 09:13:10 PM »
I have saw a website by wdfw that shows who put in for what unit and how many points they had and who drew the tag.  Bobcat is pretty good at finding and posting information like that maybe he will again?   :dunno:
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Online bobcat

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2011, 09:14:34 PM »
I know points are squared, but what if the average number of points each applicant has is equal to what you have? It's like not having points at all. To really have a big advantage you need to have more than the average number of points. If he said he had 30 points then I'd agree he could feel confident in drawing.

But the fact is, last year out of 1854 applicants for the Pearrygin permit, only 15 of those drew it. That is 1,839 who did not draw. With only 9 points odds of drawing Pearrygin are still extremely low. To put it in perspective I think it helps to think of it in terms of how many years it takes to draw a permit, based on the odds (not considering points). So as I said, for Pearrygin, a person should draw it once in 124 years of applying.

Another way to look at it is that your odds of drawing a moose tag are about the same.

Online Bigshooter

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2011, 09:17:10 PM »
I agree with bobcat it's simple odds.  Not exactly right but pretty close.
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Offline Skyvalhunter

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2011, 09:21:57 PM »
But you still don't know how many points all those other 1839 people had. If he wants a truly once in a lifetime animal put in for a quality area and not an area where he might stumble across a sub par buck and burn up his points. He has as good of shooting a nice buck in the regular season  as hunting in a higher average draw unit. The odds might be simple but the bucks just aren't there

Offline jackelope

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:fire.:

" In today's instant gratification society, more and more pressure revolves around success and the measurement of one's prowess as a hunter by inches on a score chart or field photos produced on social media. Don't fall into the trap. Hunting is-and always will be- about the hunt, the adventure, the views, and time spent with close friends and family. " Ryan Hatfield

My posts, opinions and statements do not represent those of this forum

Offline jackelope

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #21 on: March 04, 2011, 09:24:19 PM »
Average guy drew Pearygin last year with 7 points.
:fire.:

" In today's instant gratification society, more and more pressure revolves around success and the measurement of one's prowess as a hunter by inches on a score chart or field photos produced on social media. Don't fall into the trap. Hunting is-and always will be- about the hunt, the adventure, the views, and time spent with close friends and family. " Ryan Hatfield

My posts, opinions and statements do not represent those of this forum

Offline Skyvalhunter

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #22 on: March 04, 2011, 09:25:47 PM »
Go for it if you feel lucky

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #23 on: March 04, 2011, 09:26:13 PM »
Any of the Chelan or Okanogan County permits are going to be good hunts. With only 9 points I would be applying for the hunts with the best odds. That eliminates Pearrygin. But that's just me. If you only apply for the most popular permits every year, there's a good chance you will NEVER draw a permit in your lifetime.

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Re: Mule deer permit hunt
« Reply #24 on: March 04, 2011, 09:27:46 PM »
Thats not the page I was hoping someone would post  :chuckle:  The page I want will show how many people with 15 points put in followed by 14,13,12, and so on.  Plus it shows you how many tags out of each point class drew.
"Thou shalt not speak ill of any Republican."

Obama lied and US Healthcare died!

"Borders, language, culture."

 

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