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Big Game Hunting => Other Big Game => Topic started by: idahohuntr on May 02, 2013, 10:12:34 PM


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Title: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: idahohuntr on May 02, 2013, 10:12:34 PM
Draw odds for any moose - 2012 attached below.
Title: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 02, 2013, 10:29:59 PM
Those are encouraging.  It's only OIL for a very select few with those kind of odds.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Gringo31 on May 02, 2013, 11:01:10 PM
After 20 years you have a 1% chance of being drawn  :tup:
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: kentrek on May 02, 2013, 11:11:12 PM
i think ive said this in other threads but when looking at this one needs to realize that those are the odds for you drawing "that" year and not all the years combined.. cumulative odds would reveal the once in a life time chances that the state offers

if the odds were 1% after 20 years of applying then it would take 2000 years to have 100% odds lol things are not that bad...yet lol

the best part about these types of odds is comparing two different units side by side with odds vs trophy quality..which i thought was pretty useful esp for deer and elk draws



good work idahohuntr   :tup:
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: PolarBear on May 02, 2013, 11:11:33 PM
So what are the odds after 28 years?   :bash:  I wish that I could transfer my OIL points to my daughter, only then might she be able to draw by the time she reaches 50 years old.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: kentrek on May 02, 2013, 11:22:58 PM
sorry for making this confusing  but..

 for the odds for getting a tag after 20 years is each years odds added to each other..so from the first years odds all the way to the 20th years odds

small example

year 1 odds=.01
year 2 odds=.02
year3 odds=.03

odds for drawing once out of those three years is .06


hope this helps


Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: JoeE on May 03, 2013, 03:37:09 AM
Ugh    :bash: ... This is why I'm going moose hunting in Alaska next year. How are the odds for a Shiras in Idaho?
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: X-Force on May 03, 2013, 07:42:35 AM
Depends on the unit but it only took my dad 2 years to draw a tag that consistently produces 40" bulls. I think he was the only permit holder to not harvest.
Title: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 03, 2013, 07:58:39 AM
Makes me appreciate my draw even more.  If a guy is serious about killing a Shiras there is no doubt he should be applying in Idaho every year , draw odds are so much better it's not even funny and it is close.  I think a lot of people apply because it's relatively cheap but as the years add up and the costs continue to climb you'll start seeing fewer applicants although not enough to make the odds decent.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: bobcat on May 03, 2013, 08:02:50 AM
I'd like to but can't afford to buy the $2,200 Idaho moose tag.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: shanevg on May 03, 2013, 08:28:36 AM
So you're saying there's a chance!   :chuckle: :chuckle:

I took the plunge for ID moose this year for exactly that reason. I want to hunt Shiras in my lifetime and $2200 is a heck of a lot cheaper than going to AK for a moose hunt.  Last year ID results were posted 5/18 and I'm counting down the days! 
Title: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Gringo31 on May 03, 2013, 08:33:43 AM
I did the same Shane.

Good Luck'
Title: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: benhuntin on May 03, 2013, 08:35:39 AM
So you're saying there's a chance!   :chuckle: :chuckle:

I took the plunge for ID moose this year for exactly that reason. I want to hunt Shiras in my lifetime and $2200 is a heck of a lot cheaper than going to AK for a moose hunt.  Last year ID results were posted 5/18 and I'm counting down the days!
what tag?  We put in also. Hope it's not the same one.
Title: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Gringo31 on May 03, 2013, 08:41:54 AM
Unit 1-1
Title: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: benhuntin on May 03, 2013, 08:43:39 AM
Unit 1-1
there goes those odds.  Good luck
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: PolarBear on May 03, 2013, 08:51:59 AM
I guess that I will have to look into hunting moose in Idaho.  My wife's relatives have 1,000 acres out of Sand Point that has a bunch of moose on it.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: HUNT on May 03, 2013, 09:26:08 AM
Idaho has some great moose hunts for sure.   :tup:
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: shanevg on May 03, 2013, 12:18:41 PM
LOL, I applied 1-1 as well.  What hunt did you guys apply for?  9-15 - 11/15, 10/1 - 10/15, or 11/1 - 11/15?

Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: cmiller85 on May 03, 2013, 12:26:33 PM
Makes me appreciate my draw even more.  If a guy is serious about killing a Shiras there is no doubt he should be applying in Idaho every year , draw odds are so much better it's not even funny and it is close.

This is why I don't understand how most people can actually like our current point system. It's not hard to see how the system has absolutely destroyed the drawing odds for OIL tags.

Back in 1998 for instance, 2,139 applicants applied for 13 moose tags for 49 Degrees North A. This is 1 permit for every 164 applicants. After people started to catch on with the, at that time recently implemented, point system the number of applicants jumped substantially, and in 1999 the total number of applicants more than doubled with 5,300 applying for 13 permits; or 1 permit for every 407 applicants.

The number of applicants has steadily increased each year with the exception of 2006 where the number of applicants dipped slightly from 11,190 in 2005 to 10,800 total appliants for 49 Degrees North A. Moose permits were increased to 22, but this was still a worsening of the odds with 1 permit for every 490 applicants.

In 2011, the number of applicants peaked at 16,034 people applying for 22 permits. This is 1 permit for every 728 applicants. The number of applicants reduced in 2012 after WDFW doubled the cost of the permit application fees for OIL tags.

Now for the drawing odds. Looking at numbers Idahohuntr posted, only those with 17 points or more have odds better than they did in 1998; and not even drastically better but a little bit better. Those with 16 points are about the same and those with 15 points or less are worse off than when they started in 1998, so unless you got into the point game within the first 3 years, our system is screwing you. Those just now getting into the game might as well go play the WA lottery. As you can see from Idahohuntr's numbers, 49 Degrees North A applicants with 1 point had about 1 in 40,000 drawing odds.

All things being relatively equal and consistent, our system might actually better odds for those who faithfully apply every year, but things, obviously, did not stay consistent. People began to realize that if they didn't start applying to get thier points they would never draw in the future as their odds were getting worse by not applying. This obviously caused many people who would not have applied to initially to jump into the game and essentially start "Investing" in the possibility of a future hunt. This demand to jump in and begin investing in a future hunt caused the number of applicants to jump by nearly 14,000 in just 13 years while the number of permits issued went up by 9.

Long story short. Idaho knows whats up. Point systems suck. And there is nothing wrong with making people choose only 1 species in applying for a special permit.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: shanevg on May 03, 2013, 12:43:29 PM
Makes me appreciate my draw even more.  If a guy is serious about killing a Shiras there is no doubt he should be applying in Idaho every year , draw odds are so much better it's not even funny and it is close.

This is why I don't understand how most people can actually like our current point system. It's not hard to see how the system has absolutely destroyed the drawing odds for OIL tags.

Back in 1998 for instance, 2,139 applicants applied for 13 moose tags for 49 Degrees North A. This is 1 permit for every 164 applicants. After people started to catch on with the, at that time recently implemented, point system the number of applicants jumped substantially, and in 1999 the total number of applicants more than doubled with 5,300 applying for 13 permits; or 1 permit for every 407 applicants.

The number of applicants has steadily increased each year with the exception of 2006 where the number of applicants dipped slightly from 11,190 in 2005 to 10,800 total appliants for 49 Degrees North A. Moose permits were increased to 22, but this was still a worsening of the odds with 1 permit for every 490 applicants.

In 2011, the number of applicants peaked at 16,034 people applying for 22 permits. This is 1 permit for every 728 applicants. The number of applicants reduced in 2012 after WDFW doubled the cost of the permit application fees for OIL tags.

Now for the drawing odds. Looking at numbers Idahohuntr posted, only those with 17 points or more have odds better than they did in 1998; and not even drastically better but a little bit better. Those with 16 points are about the same and those with 15 points or less are worse off than when they started in 1998, so unless you got into the point game within the first 3 years, our system is screwing you. Those just now getting into the game might as well go play the WA lottery. As you can see from Idahohuntr's numbers, 49 Degrees North A applicants with 1 point had about 1 in 40,000 drawing odds.

All things being relatively equal and consistent, our system might actually better odds for those who faithfully apply every year, but things, obviously, did not stay consistent. People began to realize that if they didn't start applying to get thier points they would never draw in the future as their odds were getting worse by not applying. This obviously caused many people who would not have applied to initially to jump into the game and essentially start "Investing" in the possibility of a future hunt. This demand to jump in and begin investing in a future hunt caused the number of applicants to jump by nearly 14,000 in just 13 years while the number of permits issued went up by 9.

Long story short. Idaho knows whats up. Point systems suck. And there is nothing wrong with making people choose only 1 species in applying for a special permit.

 :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah:
Title: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 03, 2013, 12:50:41 PM
I saw somewhere in the early 90s our sheep units had only 20 or 30 applicants per tag, now look at things.  I do think it will swing eventually people will stop throwing money at species they won't draw especially now that the oil and quality categories are so expensive.  I mean that's $65 every year for minimal odds of drawing.  That will get old for people.  Then the aging population will also result in a decrease but reality is the odds are always going to be terrible in this state. 
Title: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 03, 2013, 12:52:24 PM
I would like the department to split the moose seasons like Idaho does it.  That would create four hunts out of each unit, that would spread the applicants put more and help improve the odds perhaps a tiny bit.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Gringo31 on May 03, 2013, 12:53:54 PM
Quote
LOL, I applied 1-1 as well.  What hunt did you guys apply for?
 

9-15 - 11/15
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: bobcat on May 03, 2013, 12:58:54 PM
Well, it's the system we have. Don't like it? Don't apply. I agree using a point system with moose permits doesn't make sense. It should have just been left to a totally random draw like it used to be. But, this happened because of hunters complaining that they had more rights to these limited tags just because they had been applying for many years.

So like I said in another thread- please don't ask the state to "fix" the draw system. The only thing that will happen is they'll find a way to make it worse.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: cmiller85 on May 03, 2013, 01:42:01 PM
Well, it's the system we have. Don't like it? Don't apply. I agree using a point system with moose permits doesn't make sense. It should have just been left to a totally random draw like it used to be. But, this happened because of hunters complaining that they had more rights to these limited tags just because they had been applying for many years.

So like I said in another thread- please don't ask the state to "fix" the draw system. The only thing that will happen is they'll find a way to make it worse.

I agree that we shouldn't request the state to "fix" anything. They should just do away with it. But I don't buy the fact that a few hunter complaints is what led to the point system. I think the WDFW saw a way to make more money and used a few complaints as their reasoning, just like they did when they split the permit categories a couple of years ago. I don't doubt that some people wanted it that way but the WDFW isn't going to just listen to a few hunters like that. there was no overwhelming demand from hunters that I'm aware of, the department had something to gain.

A good example is the lighted nocking issue. It had something like 90% support from hunters (as I remember), but WDFW shot it down. It took a large majority several years to get them to finally give in to the pressure. The WDFW when to the point system and expanded categories because they wanted to, IMO. If they thought they could have sold a lighted nock permit then all it would likely have taken would be a short rant from one disgruntled bow hunter who lost his arrow to "convince" them it was an overwhelming public demand.  :chuckle:
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: WAcoueshunter on May 03, 2013, 02:05:32 PM
Don't forget that you get four choices (actually, looks like five this year?), so the printed odds are misleading.  Your overall odds of drawing a moose tag should approximate the sum of the four (or five) units you apply for.    Yes, there may be 13,000 people applying for 21 permits in 49DN...but a large number of those 13,000 are also in the hat for the 10 Kettle tags, 15 Selkirk tags, 7 Huckleberry tags, etc.   Numerator stays the same, but the denominator is the sum of all the tags you apply for.

Were there four choices in 1998, before the points system was implemented?  If not, that would partly explain the big apparent jump in 49DN apps.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: bobcat on May 03, 2013, 02:17:10 PM
The best way to get odds for moose is take the total number of applications (19,224) and divide it by the total moose permits (82).

For odds of 1 in 234.

I realize that doesn't take points into account but it still gives you a general idea.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: cmiller85 on May 03, 2013, 03:23:24 PM
Don't forget that you get four choices (actually, looks like five this year?), so the printed odds are misleading.  Your overall odds of drawing a moose tag should approximate the sum of the four (or five) units you apply for.    Yes, there may be 13,000 people applying for 21 permits in 49DN...but a large number of those 13,000 are also in the hat for the 10 Kettle tags, 15 Selkirk tags, 7 Huckleberry tags, etc.   Numerator stays the same, but the denominator is the sum of all the tags you apply for.

Were there four choices in 1998, before the points system was implemented?  If not, that would partly explain the big apparent jump in 49DN apps.

I'm not sure on how many choices you got back then. That's a good point though and might possibly explain the initial spoke, but I do know that 49 DN increased by about 1,000 applicants on average each year and there were 4 choices during most if not all of those years. If the WDFW just limited your entry to 1 hunt choice that would increase drawing odds substantially. That's probably to easy though.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: splitshot on May 03, 2013, 03:33:09 PM
  i keep saying this:  we have too many people!   mike w
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: bobcat on May 03, 2013, 03:37:21 PM
I don't think limiting moose applications to one choice would change odds at all. How could it? You'd still have the same number of people applying for the same number of permits. That equals the same exact odds.   Correct?  :dunno:
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Curly on May 03, 2013, 03:42:09 PM
Well, it's the system we have. Don't like it? Don't apply. I agree using a point system with moose permits doesn't make sense. It should have just been left to a totally random draw like it used to be. But, this happened because of hunters complaining that they had more rights to these limited tags just because they had been applying for many years.

So like I said in another thread- please don't ask the state to "fix" the draw system. The only thing that will happen is they'll find a way to make it worse.

I agree that we shouldn't request the state to "fix" anything. They should just do away with it. But I don't buy the fact that a few hunter complaints is what led to the point system. I think the WDFW saw a way to make more money and used a few complaints as their reasoning, just like they did when they split the permit categories a couple of years ago. I don't doubt that some people wanted it that way but the WDFW isn't going to just listen to a few hunters like that. there was no overwhelming demand from hunters that I'm aware of, the department had something to gain.

A good example is the lighted nocking issue. It had something like 90% support from hunters (as I remember), but WDFW shot it down. It took a large majority several years to get them to finally give in to the pressure. The WDFW when to the point system and expanded categories because they wanted to, IMO. If they thought they could have sold a lighted nock permit then all it would likely have taken would be a short rant from one disgruntled bow hunter who lost his arrow to "convince" them it was an overwhelming public demand.  :chuckle:

 :chuckle:  Next year they will probably have a lighted nock fee.   :chuckle:
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: WAcoueshunter on May 03, 2013, 03:50:34 PM
I don't think limiting moose applications to one choice would change odds at all. How could it? You'd still have the same number of people applying for the same number of permits. That equals the same exact odds.   Correct?  :dunno:

Yup, exactly.  It will move them around a bit to the extent people want 49DN and not Hangman (for example), but overall odds of drawing a bull permit basically stay the same.   Same number of total applicants vying for the same number of total tags.

Maybe the benefits of going to a single choice are (i) optically, it would LOOK like you have better odds even though you really don't (of course, this might just invite more people to apply), and (ii) we would decrease the number of silly statistics threads on HuntWA.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: 6x6in6 on May 03, 2013, 03:57:35 PM
I don't think limiting moose applications to one choice would change odds at all. How could it? You'd still have the same number of people applying for the same number of permits. That equals the same exact odds.   Correct?  :dunno:
Isn't applicants the total number of hunt choices selected by application?
If we were limited to 1 hunt choice then the applicants would certainly come down and so would the overall odds.  I know I have always applied for 2 hunt choices and therefore I would be considered an applicant twice.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: bobcat on May 03, 2013, 04:08:54 PM
I don't think limiting moose applications to one choice would change odds at all. How could it? You'd still have the same number of people applying for the same number of permits. That equals the same exact odds.   Correct?  :dunno:
Isn't applicants the total number of hunt choices selected by application?
If we were limited to 1 hunt choice then the applicants would certainly come down and so would the overall odds.  I know I have always applied for 2 hunt choices and therefore I would be considered an applicant twice.

Doesn't matter how you want to look at it. There are, or were, 19,224 people who applied for a bull moose permit last year. If that number stays the same, and the number of tags stays the same, odds will remain the same. Regardless of how many choices each person gets.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Bob33 on May 03, 2013, 04:18:03 PM
If everyone submits the same number of hunt choices it does not matter how many there are. If one person submits four and someone else submits one, it alters their draw odds slightly.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: cmiller85 on May 03, 2013, 04:26:16 PM
I don't think limiting moose applications to one choice would change odds at all. How could it? You'd still have the same number of people applying for the same number of permits. That equals the same exact odds.   Correct?  :dunno:
Isn't applicants the total number of hunt choices selected by application?
If we were limited to 1 hunt choice then the applicants would certainly come down and so would the overall odds.  I know I have always applied for 2 hunt choices and therefore I would be considered an applicant twice.

Doesn't matter how you want to look at it. There are, or were, 19,224 people who applied for a bull moose permit last year. If that number stays the same, and the number of tags stays the same, odds will remain the same. Regardless of how many choices each person gets.

Overall, yes. But odds of drawing aren't based of the overall applicants and the overall tags. It is based on applicants applying for a specific hunt. What it would do is force people to choose one hunt.

If there are 100 people with four hunt choices applying for 4 hunts then there will be 100 applications in each hunt. If the 100 people only get 1 choice then those 100 people get divided up into each hunt. For instance, hunt #1 might then get 35 applications, hunt #2 might get 25 applicants, hunts #3 and 4 might get 20 applications. This is of course very basic but you can get the idea.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: bobcat on May 03, 2013, 05:04:02 PM
Right, overall odds is what I'm talking about. I assume most people are like me, and just want to draw a moose tag, regardless of the unit. I also assume that most people apply for four hunts, in order to maximize your odds of drawing a tag. If it went to only one choice, I believe odds would be virtually the same, with the exception of one or two of the least popular units. Hangman might be the one and only hunt that would actually see an increase in odds.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: WAcoueshunter on May 03, 2013, 08:03:06 PM
Right, overall odds is what I'm talking about. I assume most people are like me, and just want to draw a moose tag, regardless of the unit. I also assume that most people apply for four hunts, in order to maximize your odds of drawing a tag. If it went to only one choice, I believe odds would be virtually the same, with the exception of one or two of the least popular units. Hangman might be the one and only hunt that would actually see an increase in odds.

I bet it would even stay pretty close to the same for Hangman.  Hangman has better odds right now.  It's not like deer where you feel like you can hold out for the Entiat or Desert and will eventually get there.  If you're holding out for 49DN or Selkirk, you LIKELY will never get there.   The first year might shift it around a bit, but if Hangman has significantly better odds you better believe people will apply there and things will balance out.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: cmiller85 on May 03, 2013, 10:13:01 PM
Right, overall odds is what I'm talking about. I assume most people are like me, and just want to draw a moose tag, regardless of the unit. I also assume that most people apply for four hunts, in order to maximize your odds of drawing a tag. If it went to only one choice, I believe odds would be virtually the same, with the exception of one or two of the least popular units. Hangman might be the one and only hunt that would actually see an increase in odds.

Gotchya.  :tup:  I wasn't considering the cumulative probabilities of simply drawing a tag. That is a good point. You are probably right, it probably wouldn't be much different overall. I'll have to think on that some more. I was assuming that most people apply for their first choice as the one they really wanted and that each hunt must contain thousands of 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice entries that just make it more difficult for those who really want that hunt, and that by removing those non-first choice entries total applications for a hunt could only go down increasing odds for that particular hunt.



Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Hoythunter on May 06, 2013, 08:09:18 PM
Quote
LOL, I applied 1-1 as well.  What hunt did you guys apply for?
 

9-15 - 11/15

Sorry to say but that now makes 3 of us.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: shanevg on May 07, 2013, 08:49:05 AM
Quote
LOL, I applied 1-1 as well.  What hunt did you guys apply for?
 

9-15 - 11/15

Sorry to say but that now makes 3 of us.

I applied for 11/1 - 11/15.  Better draw odds!
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Bob33 on May 07, 2013, 08:51:10 PM
I just finished a similar exercise in a different format using Excel. I've included Moose, Goat, and Sheep.

To answer a few questions asked in this thread: (1) the odds of drawing once in more than one year is not the sum of the individual years. Think about flipping a coin: the odds of flipping heads is 50% each time, but if you flip twice the odds are not 100%. It's more complicated than that. (2) Odds of drawing with 28 bonus points are about double the odds of drawing with 20, everything else being equal. The problem is that when you have 28 points, many others will as well. Everyone moves up. The odds curve shifts as time goes on.
Title: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Gringo31 on May 07, 2013, 09:08:25 PM
Bob,
I think I'm even more depressed...

Thx
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: boneaddict on May 07, 2013, 09:10:02 PM
I have a zero chance in hell of drawing this year, only slightlty worse odds than you guys. :)
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: bobcat on May 07, 2013, 09:11:21 PM
1 in 100 odds for moose with my 17 points!   :IBCOOL:

With odds that good, how could I possibly NOT draw?   :dunno:    8)

Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Bob33 on May 07, 2013, 09:14:06 PM
Bob,
I think I'm even more depressed...

Thx
If we can get more hunters depressed, our odds increase. :chuckle:
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Dan-o on May 07, 2013, 09:18:04 PM
After reading thru this thread, I can't wait to be pleasantly surprised when I draw later this year....
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: boneaddict on May 07, 2013, 09:19:16 PM
I think we need to enlist Sheldon to help us with the math on this to come up what our real odds are with these OIL draws.    Then again, it might be better we just don't know.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: carpsniperg2 on May 07, 2013, 09:21:57 PM
Dang sad for us young pups :chuckle: I think I have 7 for each right now. Just have to get lucky, which in the oil draws is the only way to get a tag :chuckle:
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: boneaddict on May 07, 2013, 09:26:29 PM
In real time, there isn't that much difference between 20 years and 7 Carp.   That's how messed up these point/draw systems are.   
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: carpsniperg2 on May 07, 2013, 09:31:04 PM
I know, it's all about luck. 2 of my family members have drawn a moose tag with 1 point and 7 points :chuckle:
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: coachcw on May 07, 2013, 09:50:04 PM
I feel good about this year !
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: boneaddict on May 07, 2013, 09:59:09 PM
You have enough Karma points, you should be able to pull a Henrys Mule deer or sheep tag. :tup:
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: coachcw on May 07, 2013, 10:00:58 PM
well i'm not buying to many raffle tag apps !
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: coachcw on May 07, 2013, 10:01:45 PM
There's not enough karma tags to go around here ! :tup:
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: boneaddict on May 07, 2013, 10:03:22 PM
There's not enough karma tags to go around here ! :tup:
ISN'T that the truth.   
Title: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 08, 2013, 06:07:51 AM
Ouch, I have a feeling I have used up all my luck on OIL tags after reviewing those odds.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: boneaddict on May 08, 2013, 07:04:35 AM
I'd almost bet you have a higher probablility than most.  It seems like the computer gliches out on some numbers and reproduces it more than others.  Lots of heresay or urban legend about folks drawing and drawing and drawing, while others never draw. 
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Bwana Bob on May 08, 2013, 07:49:50 AM
Ouch, I have a feeling I have used up all my luck on OIL tags after reviewing those odds.
Yes you have RR and that goes for Deer, goat and Elk. No meed to apply this year, save that money for your Dall sheep hunt.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Bwana Bob on May 08, 2013, 08:00:50 AM
What even more depressing is being 63yr old and knowing even with 17-18 points I may never draw while I'm still able to hunt. The flip side to this, I could be dead by now, the bright side, I drew a goat tag in 1992.
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: lucky33 on May 31, 2013, 08:37:58 AM
The odds are long, but after all, somebody has to draw it.  Might as well be one of you or I  :tup:
Title: Re: Moose Draw Odds - 2012
Post by: Buckmania on May 31, 2013, 08:44:24 AM
I'd almost bet you have a higher probablility than most.  It seems like the computer gliches out on some numbers and reproduces it more than others.  Lots of heresay or urban legend about folks drawing and drawing and drawing, while others never draw.

 :yeah: x100!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Know a couple people who continue to draw TOUGH tags and I know a bunch of people who don't draw squat
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