Hunting Washington Forum

Big Game Hunting => Other Big Game => Topic started by: wheels on May 03, 2017, 12:36:51 AM

Title: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: wheels on May 03, 2017, 12:36:51 AM
can it be done just curios on odds thanks
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: bowhunterforever on May 03, 2017, 12:46:58 AM
Yes it can be done just gotta get lucky
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: huntnnw on May 03, 2017, 01:04:37 AM
Points mean absolutely nothing when your dealing with so few tags and way to many applicants
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on May 03, 2017, 03:00:48 AM
Odds are somewhere around 1 in 1000 likely but yes it can be done


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Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: ctwiggs1 on May 03, 2017, 05:27:50 AM
You could put in every year of your life and not get drawn.

You could also get drawn your first year. 

Good luck! :tup:
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: benhuntin on May 03, 2017, 07:37:53 AM
Happens every year.


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Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: teanawayslayer on May 03, 2017, 07:43:21 AM
Points don't matter in this state. Had a buddy draw any moose with 5.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on May 03, 2017, 07:46:53 AM
If you apply for four "any moose" hunt choices, I compute your odds to be around 1 in 200 of drawing one of them with ten points.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Duckgtr on May 03, 2017, 08:08:08 AM
I had to
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: 3boys on May 03, 2017, 08:13:10 AM
Happens every year.


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Yes it does! I drew with 8
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: BeerBugler on May 03, 2017, 08:39:16 AM
Building special permit points gives applicants a better chance in the random drawings. Each special permit category has a separate drawing.

The special permit drawing system is similar to pulling tickets out of a barrel. Building points gives an applicant more tickets. The system also squares points. That means a person with one point ends up with one entry (1x1=1) and a person with 10 points ends up with 100 entries (10x10=100).

The system randomly pulls out all these tickets in order. At the end, each application will keep and use the lowest number it drew. Lower numbers are better in this case, as an application assigned the number one earns the first overall pick. With more points, an application has a better chance of drawing a better pick.

You'll have a hundred tickets in the barrel.....but it's a big ass barrel!

Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on May 03, 2017, 09:12:13 AM
I ran a more precise estimate of the odds of drawing an “any moose” permit. My assumption was that the applicant applied for four hunt choices: (1) 49 Degrees North A Early, (2) 49 Degrees North A Late, (3) Selkirk, (4) Kettle Range. (The order does not matter in overall draw odds.)

I computed the estimated odds of drawing one of the four choices at various applicant point levels as shown here:

-   1 point: 1 in 13,270
-   5 points: 1 in 530
-   10 points: 1 in 135
-   15 points: 1 in 60
-   20 points: 1 in 35
-   24 points: 1 in 25

It's very easy to compute the odds of drawing if one doesn't apply.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Magnum_Willys on May 03, 2017, 09:20:31 AM
I ran a more precise estimate of the odds of drawing an “any moose” permit. My assumption was that the applicant applied for four hunt choices: (1) 49 Degrees North A Early, (2) 49 Degrees North A Late, (3) Selkirk, (4) Kettle Range. (The order does not matter in overall draw odds.)

I computed the estimated odds of drawing one of the four choices at various applicant point levels as shown here:

-   1 point: 1 in 13,270
-   5 points: 1 in 530
-   10 points: 1 in 135
-   15 points: 1 in 60
-   20 points: 1 in 35
-   24 points: 1 in 25

It's very easy to compute the odds of drawing if one doesn't apply.

So with 15 points I shouldn't worry about camp reservations just yet ?  Odds look just slightly worse than drawing Wenaha - arghhhhh
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: sagerat on May 03, 2017, 09:43:43 AM
Yeah and then think about your odds of actually finding the bull you want... Those big coyotes up there haven't made it any easier.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 03, 2017, 12:34:01 PM
It's cheap to dream, apply and hope to get lucky. 


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Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: stickman999 on May 03, 2017, 12:48:56 PM
I drew Selkirk with 4.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: wheels on May 03, 2017, 02:22:37 PM
thanks im sitting on 9 or 10 not counting this year  in all but  65 and youth
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: teanawayslayer on May 03, 2017, 03:16:02 PM
I drew Selkirk with 4.
lets see what 4 points got you!
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: steeleywhopper on May 04, 2017, 02:07:23 AM
Took my Grandfather until he was 83 yrs old to draw a Washington Cow Moose Permit and took him to 86 yrs old to draw the Washington Any Moose Permit. He passed away 6 Months after he killed his bull. Good luck to us all and I hope I don't have to wait until I'm in my 80's to draw a Moose Permit.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Skyvalhunter on May 04, 2017, 05:08:27 AM
Well I am just thankful your grandfather was able to draw the permit Steve before he passed on.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Magnum_Willys on May 04, 2017, 07:08:34 AM
thanks im sitting on 9 or 10 not counting this year  in all but  65 and youth
Each year the average number of points goes up and because its squared that means if you are below average number of points your odds actually decrease each year  :yike:  I think the average was around 8 ? so at least your odds aren't dropping.   :tup: Just a lil luck needed. 
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Dhoey07 on May 04, 2017, 07:35:26 AM
I quit applying with 5 points, just after they upped the the app fee.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: stickman999 on May 04, 2017, 10:28:42 AM
I drew Selkirk with 4.
lets see what 4 points got you!

I heard this bull late the previous day in a swampy area I located on a map so the next morning I snuck in and did a little cow call and he came in hot right to me. Maybe  a 40 yard shot. My only regret is I didn't call him closer to the road.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 04, 2017, 11:44:55 AM
I drew with 10 points.  But that was 9 years ago when I was only 3 off max. 
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: 180-GRAIN on May 05, 2017, 10:18:33 AM
I drew 49 in 2009. 7 points
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Skyvalhunter on May 05, 2017, 11:21:51 AM
I am pretty sure you paid WDFW off on that one.. :chuckle: :chuckle:
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: streak on May 05, 2017, 08:49:45 PM
A 10 year old kid drew 49 degrees north bull tag last year with 2 points and killed a 40" bull. It's the luck of the draw
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Falcon on May 07, 2017, 09:14:56 AM
I drew 2 years ago with 18 points.  My brother Craig drew a really good tag the next year with 8.
If you want to get slightly better odds, swing for the fences on your first pic, and than go with the sleeper units with better odds.    That's what I did :tup:
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: cem3434 on May 07, 2017, 10:32:11 AM
The reality is most guys/gals will never draw in Washington because there are too many hunters and not enough tags. If you really want to kill a moose, apply in Idaho. The tag and license is around $2350, but I drew a tag my second year applying. Some of there units are better than 1:4 for non-resident draw odds. :twocents:
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: wheels on May 07, 2017, 11:46:06 AM
didnt there are sleeper units  except maybe spokane west and hangman maybe  i just look for what i can get around in
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: cem3434 on May 07, 2017, 12:34:33 PM
didnt there are sleeper units  except maybe spokane west and hangman maybe  i just look for what i can get around in

If you are lucky enough to draw a tag in any WA unit, filling the tag should be the easy part. Even being handicapped, I have all the faith that you wouldn't have to worry about filling the tag if you're not trophy hunting. Many people on this forum, myself included, would have no problem helping you out if you are one of the few lucky ones to draw. The reality is most bulls are probably killed within a couple hundred yards of the road, so don't hold back or feel like you can't put in for some of the other units if you'd like to. Good luck to you in the draw! :tup:
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: wheels on May 07, 2017, 12:53:12 PM
thats why i love this  place  and i would do some holding out  i put in for what looks like best odds usually  more tags
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: brew on May 07, 2017, 03:47:12 PM
in 2006 i drew any moose in 49 degree north, unit 117 i believe it was, with 1 point...yes i am "that guy"-sorry  :chuckle:  we spent 3 days before the opener camped in chewelaw and using enduro motorcycles scouting the area.  opening morning we walked in a gated road that we saw an area that bulls had been sparring...ground was all chewed up and patches of moose hair where everywhere.  we jumped a cow and had 2 different moose in the brush at less than 30 yards but couldn't get a clear shot-figured they were bulls but they moved off before i could identify them.  that evening driving to a spot that we had previously scouted a small bull we had a cow cross the road followed by a bull.  he just stood on the side of the road so i figured he was big enough and dropped him with a high shoulder shot from my buddies 338.  he measured 43 1/2 " and with the "pack out" i couldn't resist.  only regret was not shooting him with my bow i had with me as he was only 40 yards away but quartering and loading him into the truck sure was easy.  got him to the butcher and the quarters hung at 550 lbs.  wife wanted to do a shoulder mount but we didn't have enough room in the house so i got a euro.  can't wait for the new house to be completed to hang him back up.  he had a fresh scar down his nose and a broken rib from rutting.  funny thing was one of the guys that was with us scouting had to leave before the hunt and ran into someone at a dinner party who also had that tag.  He told him about the smaller bull we saw and the approximate mile marker on the road.  a couple days later that tag holder was driving up that same road around the same mile marker when he saw a vehicle pulled over.  he got out to see what was going on and the couple in the vehicle was taking pictures of that same bull moose just off the road drinking in the creek.  that tag holder went back to his truck, got his gun and shot that moose right there.  yes it can and does happen with limited points
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: wheels on May 07, 2017, 05:47:33 PM
thats awesome
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: First timer on May 13, 2017, 10:00:11 AM
I'll have 20 points this year. But have had my cousin draw his first ever year putting in. Another year my dad and brother both got drawn and they weren't partners. You just never know when it's your time to get lucky.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Falcon on May 13, 2017, 10:39:29 AM
I'll have 20 points this year. But have had my cousin draw his first ever year putting in. Another year my dad and brother both got drawn and they weren't partners. You just never know when it's your time to get lucky.
.

First Timer:   With 20 points you are a heck of a lot better off than a guy with just a few points.   
That's 400 ping pong balls in the hopper.  Best of luck👊💥👊
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on May 13, 2017, 11:23:40 AM
My dad is one of about 4 people who has put in every year since the point system started and still not drawn(any moose)


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Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: First timer on May 13, 2017, 12:50:23 PM
That is true. I've definitely have paid my dues and ready for a permit soon.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: bobcat on May 13, 2017, 12:53:34 PM
My dad is one of about 4 people who has put in every year since the point system started and still not drawn(any moose)


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Only 4 people? I think there's a whole lot more people than that who have been applying for moose since the point system started and haven't drawn. I'm thinking maybe more like 4 hundred people.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: tchoutacabouffa on May 13, 2017, 01:06:47 PM
The reality is most guys/gals will never draw in Washington because there are too many hunters and not enough tags. If you really want to kill a moose, apply in Idaho. The tag and license is around $2350, but I drew a tag my second year applying. Some of there units are better than 1:4 for non-resident draw odds. :twocents:
I drew my first year. In a great unit where only 7 non residents even applied. This unit give a tag to non residents yearly.


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Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: wheels on May 13, 2017, 02:05:36 PM
so i guess im in the game either way  looks like ill be going in with 9 this year
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on May 13, 2017, 02:10:23 PM
My dad is one of about 4 people who has put in every year since the point system started and still not drawn(any moose)


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Only 4 people? I think there's a whole lot more people than that who have been applying for moose since the point system started and haven't drawn. I'm thinking maybe more like 4 hundred people.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Pinetar on May 13, 2017, 02:38:58 PM
My son drew with one point when he was 9yrs old. The odds are always there for you if you keep playing
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: wheels on May 13, 2017, 04:53:29 PM
BOB did you get that off the wdfw s9ite ?
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on May 13, 2017, 04:55:21 PM
BOB did you get that off the wdfw s9ite ?
Yes.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on May 13, 2017, 08:55:39 PM
I think the "top points" pool on each of the OIL tags is down to single digits


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Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: wheels on May 14, 2017, 01:44:24 AM
thanks
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: westside bull on May 14, 2017, 07:19:19 AM
I'll have 20 points this year. But have had my cousin draw his first ever year putting in. Another year my dad and brother both got drawn and they weren't partners. You just never know when it's your time to get lucky.
Holy cow who does your family know at wdfw?? :chuckle:
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bullkllr on May 14, 2017, 12:34:37 PM
My dad is one of about 4 people who has put in every year since the point system started and still not drawn(any moose)


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Only 4 people? I think there's a whole lot more people than that who have been applying for moose since the point system started and haven't drawn. I'm thinking maybe more like 4 hundred people.

I thought that data was interesting, so I looked at what they showed for other categories. Across the board, the summaries show top-points applicants as drawing at a very low rate.

But at first glance, some of the numbers don't jibe 100%.
On the summary for antlerless deer, for example, here: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016.php (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016.php) (don't now how to post the screen shot) shows 1 unsuccessful applicant with 21 points, another with 20 points, and 3 more with 19 points (all unsuccessful).

While it seems somewhat unlikely to not draw an antlerless deer permit with over 20 points (much less unlikely than for moose, imo), things get confusing when I look at the pfd by-hunt-breakdown of applicants here http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016category_points_antlerlessdeer.pdf (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016category_points_antlerlessdeer.pdf)
This report lists NO applicants with either 20 or 21 applying for any hunts, and it only lists 1 of the 3 with 19 points as applying unsuccessfully. I looked several times and I don't think I overlooked them.

The summary results for 2nd deer are even more confusing. It shows the overall rate of drawing (all tags divided by all apps) as 1:3.39.  Apps with 1 point drew at a rate of 1:3.87, while the top points apps (>12 pts) drew at a 1:40 rate. This makes no mathematical sense to me.

I'm not saying the results from moose are the same (I will look at that in more detail when I have time), but if it is- something is up  with those discrepancies. There could be a logical reason- like the summary includes points options and has them listed as unsuccessful- or it includes them as individual applicants who applied as a group. Or it could be the numbers are off somehow  :dunno:

Just thought it was interesting...
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on May 14, 2017, 01:04:54 PM
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bullkllr on May 14, 2017, 01:24:08 PM
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?

Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on May 14, 2017, 01:42:18 PM
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?
I'm thinking if you don't ultimately draw a tag they count you as unsuccessful in the summary yes.


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Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on May 14, 2017, 02:13:31 PM
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?
The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Stein on May 14, 2017, 03:47:42 PM
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bullkllr on May 14, 2017, 04:12:31 PM
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?
The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.

That makes sense  :tup:

So in many categories (less for OILs), a lot with the top points seem to be doing points only. Someone has 29 points for antlerless elk, and bought another point. In fact, only 1 of the 33 with 20 or more points didn't do points only for antlerless elk (and didn't draw Pine Mtn. Ranch fwiw). Plausible; still seems a bit weird.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on May 14, 2017, 04:25:25 PM
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?
The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.

That makes sense  :tup:

So in many categories (less for OILs), a lot with the top points seem to be doing "points only" then.
That is most likely the case. In addition, some applicants with maximum points have a bias. They are applying for the most difficult to draw hunts, and possibly only applying for one hunt choice versus multiple hunts.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on May 14, 2017, 06:18:16 PM
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on May 14, 2017, 06:21:31 PM
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on May 14, 2017, 07:07:28 PM
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

I would venture to guess that the 3 extra names in the hat is far outweighed by the 1000's of people who are gaining an extra 10 or 20 names in the hat.


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Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on May 14, 2017, 07:14:04 PM
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

I would venture to guess that the 3 extra names in the hat is far outweighed by the 1000's of people who are gaining an extra 10 or 20 names in the hat.


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On average, the total number of "names in the hat" for quality hunts increases by about 15% per year. Someone with one point gets 300% more points going from year one to year two, and thus gains ground. Someone with 20 points gets only 10% more points going from year 20 to year 21 (400 to 441), and thus loses ground.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Miles on May 19, 2017, 08:46:47 AM
I wouldn't waste my time applying for WA moose.  There are better options, that include hunting moose before you die of old age.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Skyvalhunter on May 19, 2017, 09:54:01 AM
 :chuckle:
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: huntnnw on May 22, 2017, 05:37:43 AM
I wouldn't waste my time applying for WA moose.  There are better options, that include hunting moose before you die of old age.

 :yeah: pony up the money for ID.. You will be moose hunting in a few years
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Skyvalhunter on May 22, 2017, 05:40:21 AM
Apply as you are not out much money if you do and you might end up being lucky
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Ridgeratt on May 22, 2017, 06:01:01 AM
Here are the 2016 stats. Some of the tags went to folks with 2 or 3 points.
It's a Lottery.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016category_points_anymoose.pdf
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: jkononen on May 25, 2017, 02:01:22 PM
Here are the 2016 stats. Some of the tags went to folks with 2 or 3 points.
It's a Lottery.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016category_points_anymoose.pdf
The 2 and 3 point winners for 49 degrees north we're a 10 year old and a 11 or 12 year old. Both from Skagit valley.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: smithjacksonsublette on June 28, 2017, 08:14:58 PM
My 11 year old drew 124 with 3 points. From north Snoho. Not sure what youth odds are but that seems pretty good to me.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: PA BEN on July 10, 2017, 06:38:36 PM
I drew 49 any moose in 2008 w 10 points.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: sure shot on September 17, 2017, 07:18:16 PM
I drew an any moose in 49 deg, north this Oct. with 9 points.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Buckblaster on September 19, 2017, 12:45:37 PM
Wow, I'm one of the 4 max-point holders, but it still doesn't guarantee me a tag.  Thinking that I may never draw a moose tag in this state, I put in for Wyoming moose points for 15 years before I finally had enough preference points to draw there.  In 2015, I cashed in my points and shot a 38" bull, which wasn't huge, but I took home 300 lbs of boned out meat, and I couldn't be happier. 
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: bobcat on September 19, 2017, 01:26:09 PM
Max points right now is 22, and the data posted was from the previous year, so it looks like there are 310 people with "max points."
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Buckblaster on September 19, 2017, 01:41:51 PM
Sorry, I assumed I had max since I haven't missed a moose application since the early 1990's, but I looked up my points, and I in fact have only 22 points.  I am still not encouraged that I'll draw a tag any time soon. 
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Falcon on September 19, 2017, 03:05:17 PM
Max points right now is 22, and the data posted was from the previous year, so it looks like there are 310 people with "max points."

Bcat..................You're a shoe in next year for a moose tag :drool:
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Buckblaster on September 19, 2017, 03:11:26 PM
If the top points were actually preference points, the odds for getting one of the 103 any moose tags would be about 1 in 3.  The bonus point system is worthless.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on September 19, 2017, 03:31:28 PM
Max points right now is 22, and the data posted was from the previous year, so it looks like there are 310 people with "max points."
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Falcon on September 19, 2017, 04:12:51 PM
Max points right now is 22, and the data posted was from the previous year, so it looks like there are 310 people with "max points."

With 21 points, you had a 4.5% chance of drawing, and probably much more if you picked easier to draw units. Still tough odds, but much better odds than winning the lottery :tup:
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on September 19, 2017, 04:33:57 PM
Just doing some quick calculations, assuming that you were in the 23 point category your odds are actually about 0.059% to draw a tag. Calculated that figure by taking 24675applicants, adding up from the bottom until I reached the midway point(12,337) to figure that the average applicant has somewhere around 6 points

6x6=36 chances per applicant
36x24,675=888,300 total names in the "barrel" so to speak
23 points gets you 529 chances
So 529/888,300=0.00059552 or about 0.059552% chance to draw any 1 "any moose" tag as a top point holder in Washington state.


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Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on September 19, 2017, 04:51:18 PM
Just doing some quick calculations, assuming that you were in the 23 point category your odds are actually about 0.059% to draw a tag. Calculated that figure by taking 24675applicants, adding up from the bottom until I reached the midway point(12,337) to figure that the average applicant has somewhere around 6 points

6x6=36 chances per applicant
36x24,675=888,300 total names in the "barrel" so to speak
23 points gets you 529 chances
So 529/888,300=0.00059552 or about 0.059552% chance to draw any 1 "any moose" tag as a top point holder in Washington state.


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The odds a little better.  Not all applicants apply for the same hunts, and applicants can select up to four choices.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on September 20, 2017, 06:26:01 AM
Just doing some quick calculations, assuming that you were in the 23 point category your odds are actually about 0.059% to draw a tag. Calculated that figure by taking 24675applicants, adding up from the bottom until I reached the midway point(12,337) to figure that the average applicant has somewhere around 6 points

6x6=36 chances per applicant
36x24,675=888,300 total names in the "barrel" so to speak
23 points gets you 529 chances
So 529/888,300=0.00059552 or about 0.059552% chance to draw any 1 "any moose" tag as a top point holder in Washington state.


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The odds a little better.  Not all applicants apply for the same hunts, and applicants can select up to four choices.
Slightly but the fact that everybody can choose up to 4 choices is actually part of what makes the odds so bad. I'm just saying if you take an overall look at the odds of drawing you can assume that your overall odds of picking any 4 units and putting in an application your odds of drawing are extremely terrible, far from the 4.5% somebody said they are.


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Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on September 20, 2017, 07:29:20 AM
Just doing some quick calculations, assuming that you were in the 23 point category your odds are actually about 0.059% to draw a tag. Calculated that figure by taking 24675applicants, adding up from the bottom until I reached the midway point(12,337) to figure that the average applicant has somewhere around 6 points

6x6=36 chances per applicant
36x24,675=888,300 total names in the "barrel" so to speak
23 points gets you 529 chances
So 529/888,300=0.00059552 or about 0.059552% chance to draw any 1 "any moose" tag as a top point holder in Washington state.


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The odds a little better.  Not all applicants apply for the same hunts, and applicants can select up to four choices.
Slightly but the fact that everybody can choose up to 4 choices is actually part of what makes the odds so bad. I'm just saying if you take an overall look at the odds of drawing you can assume that your overall odds of picking any 4 units and putting in an application your odds of drawing are extremely terrible, far from the 4.5% somebody said they are.


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The odds are not good.

One problem in looking at the aggregate applications (24,675) is that a portion of them are for points only. The  number of applications for "points only" last year was 5,351; those applications can be discarded for consideration of odds.

The best way to evaluate odds is to look at individual hunts.  A popular Any Moose permit is the 49 Degrees - Early hunt. Last year there were 11,395 applications for 15 permits. The average points per application was 9.9. Summing up the number of "names in the hat" for all applications totaled 1,117,047. Someone with 23 points would have 529 "names in the hat". Odds of one of the 529 being drawn from the 1,117,047 would be approximately .000474 (1 in 2,111). However, he has a chance to get a permit on each of the 15 draws, so the approximately odds of being drawn come out to about 1 in 140 for that hunt.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: boneaddict on September 20, 2017, 08:20:01 AM
As I have noted on here many times....POINTS ARE THE DEVIL
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Falcon on September 20, 2017, 11:39:42 AM
As I have noted on here many times....POINTS ARE THE DEVIL

Agreed, but when you draw, its kind of nice to dance with the Devil :chuckle:
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: KFhunter on September 20, 2017, 12:07:12 PM
I don't understand why a young hunter would want to start acquiring OIL pts in WA.


Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on September 20, 2017, 12:17:22 PM
I don't understand why a young hunter would want to start acquiring OIL pts in WA.
Low cost, lots of years to accumulate points and increase a chance of drawing. I don't understand why an older person would want to start.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Stein on September 20, 2017, 12:29:09 PM
I don't understand why a young hunter would want to start acquiring OIL pts in WA.
Low cost, lots of years to accumulate points and increase a chance of drawing. I don't understand why an older person would want to start.

 :yeah:

I didn't start accumulating WA points until I was about 38.  Seems pointless other than the fact that a small chance beats zero chance.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: bobcat on September 20, 2017, 12:29:34 PM
The same reason people buy lottery tickets. They might win. The points don't mean a lot. Odds are low regardless of how many points you have. But everyone has a chance. And it's only $14.


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Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: KFhunter on September 20, 2017, 12:37:30 PM
$14 dollars sure...and 23 years of disappointment, disappointment that builds each consecutive year, how many years of disappointment before you go beyond mere disappointment and fill bitter each year when you aren't selected?  15? 20? 23? 25?

After 20+ years of putting in for a moose and seeing folks drawing with 10 or less years I'd be bitter about it - thus I abstain.   


"it's only $14"  no, it's not.   I'll gladly take my $2350 to Idaho.


Title: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: bobcat on September 20, 2017, 12:43:34 PM
It's one of those things that you should never have the expectation that you'll eventually draw. Odds are you never will. So, a person shouldn't become too upset about not drawing when that's what you already know is going to happen. I think of it as a donation to the state that benefits wildlife by helping to fund proper wildlife management.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: KFhunter on September 20, 2017, 12:47:03 PM
If a guy hunter was hunting moose out of state and wanted a WA moose to go with all their out of state hunts then I could see it, but if you don't hunt out of state and are relying solely upon WA to give you an opportunity to hunt a moose then forget about it.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Bob33 on September 20, 2017, 12:48:24 PM
$14 dollars sure...and 23 years of disappointment, disappointment that builds each consecutive year, how many years of disappointment before you go beyond mere disappointment and fill bitter each year when you aren't selected?  15? 20? 23? 25?

After 20+ years of putting in for a moose and seeing folks drawing with 10 or less years I'd be bitter about it - thus I abstain.   


"it's only $14"  no, it's not.   I'll gladly take my $2350 to Idaho.
Bitterness and disappointment comes primarily from not understanding the true odds and how Washington's draw system works. Twenty years at $14/year is $280 and gives one a chance (yes a small one) of being drawn in your home state; that seems like a reasonable cost to many.

I also believe that anyone who really wants to hunt moose in his lifetime shouldn't count on ever getting the opportunity in Washington.
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: KFhunter on September 20, 2017, 12:55:22 PM
but then there's Jackalope with his 8 pts and the hunt of a lifetime coming in a couple short weeks
Title: Re: moose 10 pts or less?
Post by: Falcon on September 21, 2017, 03:06:51 PM
About half of my hunting buddies who have faithfully put
In for moose each year have drawn.  If you put down 4 choices
And do your research on units that aren't legendary your chances
Go up quite a bit.   Moose permits are quite a bit easier than sheep and
Goat.   Those 2 are getting extremely hard to draw :twocents: