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Author Topic: moose 10 pts or less?  (Read 3290 times)

Offline Bullkllr

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #50 on: May 14, 2017, 01:24:08 PM »
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?

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Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #51 on: May 14, 2017, 01:42:18 PM »
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?
I'm thinking if you don't ultimately draw a tag they count you as unsuccessful in the summary yes.


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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #52 on: May 14, 2017, 02:13:31 PM »
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?
The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline Stein

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #53 on: May 14, 2017, 03:47:42 PM »
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

Offline Bullkllr

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #54 on: May 14, 2017, 04:12:31 PM »
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?
The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.

That makes sense  :tup:

So in many categories (less for OILs), a lot with the top points seem to be doing points only. Someone has 29 points for antlerless elk, and bought another point. In fact, only 1 of the 33 with 20 or more points didn't do points only for antlerless elk (and didn't draw Pine Mtn. Ranch fwiw). Plausible; still seems a bit weird.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2017, 04:31:50 PM by Bullkllr »
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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #55 on: May 14, 2017, 04:25:25 PM »
There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?
The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.

That makes sense  :tup:

So in many categories (less for OILs), a lot with the top points seem to be doing "points only" then.
That is most likely the case. In addition, some applicants with maximum points have a bias. They are applying for the most difficult to draw hunts, and possibly only applying for one hunt choice versus multiple hunts.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #56 on: May 14, 2017, 06:18:16 PM »
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #57 on: May 14, 2017, 06:21:31 PM »
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #58 on: May 14, 2017, 07:07:28 PM »
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

I would venture to guess that the 3 extra names in the hat is far outweighed by the 1000's of people who are gaining an extra 10 or 20 names in the hat.


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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #59 on: May 14, 2017, 07:14:04 PM »
Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.
Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

I would venture to guess that the 3 extra names in the hat is far outweighed by the 1000's of people who are gaining an extra 10 or 20 names in the hat.


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On average, the total number of "names in the hat" for quality hunts increases by about 15% per year. Someone with one point gets 300% more points going from year one to year two, and thus gains ground. Someone with 20 points gets only 10% more points going from year 20 to year 21 (400 to 441), and thus loses ground.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline Miles

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #60 on: May 19, 2017, 08:46:47 AM »
I wouldn't waste my time applying for WA moose.  There are better options, that include hunting moose before you die of old age.

Offline Skyvalhunter

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #61 on: May 19, 2017, 09:54:01 AM »
 :chuckle:

Offline huntnnw

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #62 on: Yesterday at 05:37:43 AM »
I wouldn't waste my time applying for WA moose.  There are better options, that include hunting moose before you die of old age.

 :yeah: pony up the money for ID.. You will be moose hunting in a few years

Offline Skyvalhunter

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #63 on: Yesterday at 05:40:21 AM »
Apply as you are not out much money if you do and you might end up being lucky

Offline Ridgeratt

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #64 on: Yesterday at 06:01:01 AM »
Here are the 2016 stats. Some of the tags went to folks with 2 or 3 points.
It's a Lottery.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016category_points_anymoose.pdf

 

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