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Author Topic: moose 10 pts or less?  (Read 14854 times)

Offline Falcon

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #75 on: September 19, 2017, 04:12:51 PM »
Max points right now is 22, and the data posted was from the previous year, so it looks like there are 310 people with "max points."

With 21 points, you had a 4.5% chance of drawing, and probably much more if you picked easier to draw units. Still tough odds, but much better odds than winning the lottery :tup:
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Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #76 on: September 19, 2017, 04:33:57 PM »
Just doing some quick calculations, assuming that you were in the 23 point category your odds are actually about 0.059% to draw a tag. Calculated that figure by taking 24675applicants, adding up from the bottom until I reached the midway point(12,337) to figure that the average applicant has somewhere around 6 points

6x6=36 chances per applicant
36x24,675=888,300 total names in the "barrel" so to speak
23 points gets you 529 chances
So 529/888,300=0.00059552 or about 0.059552% chance to draw any 1 "any moose" tag as a top point holder in Washington state.


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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #77 on: September 19, 2017, 04:51:18 PM »
Just doing some quick calculations, assuming that you were in the 23 point category your odds are actually about 0.059% to draw a tag. Calculated that figure by taking 24675applicants, adding up from the bottom until I reached the midway point(12,337) to figure that the average applicant has somewhere around 6 points

6x6=36 chances per applicant
36x24,675=888,300 total names in the "barrel" so to speak
23 points gets you 529 chances
So 529/888,300=0.00059552 or about 0.059552% chance to draw any 1 "any moose" tag as a top point holder in Washington state.


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The odds a little better.  Not all applicants apply for the same hunts, and applicants can select up to four choices.
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Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #78 on: September 20, 2017, 06:26:01 AM »
Just doing some quick calculations, assuming that you were in the 23 point category your odds are actually about 0.059% to draw a tag. Calculated that figure by taking 24675applicants, adding up from the bottom until I reached the midway point(12,337) to figure that the average applicant has somewhere around 6 points

6x6=36 chances per applicant
36x24,675=888,300 total names in the "barrel" so to speak
23 points gets you 529 chances
So 529/888,300=0.00059552 or about 0.059552% chance to draw any 1 "any moose" tag as a top point holder in Washington state.


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The odds a little better.  Not all applicants apply for the same hunts, and applicants can select up to four choices.
Slightly but the fact that everybody can choose up to 4 choices is actually part of what makes the odds so bad. I'm just saying if you take an overall look at the odds of drawing you can assume that your overall odds of picking any 4 units and putting in an application your odds of drawing are extremely terrible, far from the 4.5% somebody said they are.


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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #79 on: September 20, 2017, 07:29:20 AM »
Just doing some quick calculations, assuming that you were in the 23 point category your odds are actually about 0.059% to draw a tag. Calculated that figure by taking 24675applicants, adding up from the bottom until I reached the midway point(12,337) to figure that the average applicant has somewhere around 6 points

6x6=36 chances per applicant
36x24,675=888,300 total names in the "barrel" so to speak
23 points gets you 529 chances
So 529/888,300=0.00059552 or about 0.059552% chance to draw any 1 "any moose" tag as a top point holder in Washington state.


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The odds a little better.  Not all applicants apply for the same hunts, and applicants can select up to four choices.
Slightly but the fact that everybody can choose up to 4 choices is actually part of what makes the odds so bad. I'm just saying if you take an overall look at the odds of drawing you can assume that your overall odds of picking any 4 units and putting in an application your odds of drawing are extremely terrible, far from the 4.5% somebody said they are.


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The odds are not good.

One problem in looking at the aggregate applications (24,675) is that a portion of them are for points only. The  number of applications for "points only" last year was 5,351; those applications can be discarded for consideration of odds.

The best way to evaluate odds is to look at individual hunts.  A popular Any Moose permit is the 49 Degrees - Early hunt. Last year there were 11,395 applications for 15 permits. The average points per application was 9.9. Summing up the number of "names in the hat" for all applications totaled 1,117,047. Someone with 23 points would have 529 "names in the hat". Odds of one of the 529 being drawn from the 1,117,047 would be approximately .000474 (1 in 2,111). However, he has a chance to get a permit on each of the 15 draws, so the approximately odds of being drawn come out to about 1 in 140 for that hunt.
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Offline boneaddict

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #80 on: September 20, 2017, 08:20:01 AM »
As I have noted on here many times....POINTS ARE THE DEVIL
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Offline Falcon

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #81 on: September 20, 2017, 11:39:42 AM »
As I have noted on here many times....POINTS ARE THE DEVIL

Agreed, but when you draw, its kind of nice to dance with the Devil :chuckle:
Cast all your anxiety upon him, for he cares for you.    1 Peter 5:7

Offline KFhunter

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #82 on: September 20, 2017, 12:07:12 PM »
I don't understand why a young hunter would want to start acquiring OIL pts in WA.


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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #83 on: September 20, 2017, 12:17:22 PM »
I don't understand why a young hunter would want to start acquiring OIL pts in WA.
Low cost, lots of years to accumulate points and increase a chance of drawing. I don't understand why an older person would want to start.
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Online Stein

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #84 on: September 20, 2017, 12:29:09 PM »
I don't understand why a young hunter would want to start acquiring OIL pts in WA.
Low cost, lots of years to accumulate points and increase a chance of drawing. I don't understand why an older person would want to start.

 :yeah:

I didn't start accumulating WA points until I was about 38.  Seems pointless other than the fact that a small chance beats zero chance.

Offline bobcat

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #85 on: September 20, 2017, 12:29:34 PM »
The same reason people buy lottery tickets. They might win. The points don't mean a lot. Odds are low regardless of how many points you have. But everyone has a chance. And it's only $14.


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Offline KFhunter

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #86 on: September 20, 2017, 12:37:30 PM »
$14 dollars sure...and 23 years of disappointment, disappointment that builds each consecutive year, how many years of disappointment before you go beyond mere disappointment and fill bitter each year when you aren't selected?  15? 20? 23? 25?

After 20+ years of putting in for a moose and seeing folks drawing with 10 or less years I'd be bitter about it - thus I abstain.   


"it's only $14"  no, it's not.   I'll gladly take my $2350 to Idaho.


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Offline bobcat

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moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #87 on: September 20, 2017, 12:43:34 PM »
It's one of those things that you should never have the expectation that you'll eventually draw. Odds are you never will. So, a person shouldn't become too upset about not drawing when that's what you already know is going to happen. I think of it as a donation to the state that benefits wildlife by helping to fund proper wildlife management.

Offline KFhunter

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #88 on: September 20, 2017, 12:47:03 PM »
If a guy hunter was hunting moose out of state and wanted a WA moose to go with all their out of state hunts then I could see it, but if you don't hunt out of state and are relying solely upon WA to give you an opportunity to hunt a moose then forget about it.
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Offline Bob33

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Re: moose 10 pts or less?
« Reply #89 on: September 20, 2017, 12:48:24 PM »
$14 dollars sure...and 23 years of disappointment, disappointment that builds each consecutive year, how many years of disappointment before you go beyond mere disappointment and fill bitter each year when you aren't selected?  15? 20? 23? 25?

After 20+ years of putting in for a moose and seeing folks drawing with 10 or less years I'd be bitter about it - thus I abstain.   


"it's only $14"  no, it's not.   I'll gladly take my $2350 to Idaho.
Bitterness and disappointment comes primarily from not understanding the true odds and how Washington's draw system works. Twenty years at $14/year is $280 and gives one a chance (yes a small one) of being drawn in your home state; that seems like a reasonable cost to many.

I also believe that anyone who really wants to hunt moose in his lifetime shouldn't count on ever getting the opportunity in Washington.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

 

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