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GET THE MOST OUT OF YOUR GPS MAP Guided Moose And Black Bear Hunts

Author Topic: partner draw moose  (Read 3923 times)

Offline benhuntin

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #25 on: May 27, 2017, 08:35:12 PM »
Let's just say you're right and everyone else is wrong. Have a great weekend.


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Offline Oh Mah

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #26 on: May 27, 2017, 08:39:16 PM »
i will accept that,bye
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Offline grundy53

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #27 on: May 27, 2017, 08:52:00 PM »
Let's just say you're right and everyone else is wrong. Have a great weekend.


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:yeah: :chuckle:

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The opinions expressed in my posts do not represent those of the forum.

Offline Oh Mah

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #28 on: May 27, 2017, 09:13:32 PM »
Can't help but laugh and laugh hard at you both.Now between the 2 of you ,You're everyone else.  :chuckle:  :dunno: HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND !
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Offline Falcon

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #29 on: May 28, 2017, 09:09:39 AM »
Can't help but laugh and laugh hard at you both.Now between the 2 of you ,You're everyone else.  :chuckle:  :dunno: HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND !

Ok I think we got it :chuckle:
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Offline Oh Mah

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #30 on: May 28, 2017, 09:17:23 AM »
Can't help but laugh and laugh hard at you both.Now between the 2 of you ,You're everyone else.  :chuckle:  :dunno: HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND !

Ok I think we got it :chuckle:
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Offline dscubame

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #31 on: May 28, 2017, 09:31:05 AM »
Happens all the time. Lots of camps with two tags that put in together.


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Yep.  Happens all the time.   :yeah:. Best way to draw too since you can both enjoy the oil.
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Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #32 on: May 28, 2017, 09:46:41 AM »
Saying that 5 groups out of 11k applicants is not the right way to look at it. Saying that 10 people drew out of 104 tags as partners means that almost 10% of the any moose tags are going to group applications, so yea I think you could say it happens often enough


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Offline Oh Mah

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #33 on: May 28, 2017, 10:18:52 AM »
only 5 names were drawn for the 10 so its not 10% drawn.Almost 10% got tags and that is still not a lot out of 104,But like i said keep putting in for group especially in areas with 3 or less tags.  :tup:
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Offline teanawayslayer

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #34 on: May 28, 2017, 11:02:16 AM »
only 5 names were drawn for the 10 so its not 10% drawn.Almost 10% got tags and that is still not a lot out of 104,But like i said keep putting in for group especially in areas with 3 or less tags.  :tup:
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Offline Dan-o

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #35 on: May 28, 2017, 11:23:35 AM »
Benhuntin is correct. 

It happens all the time - meaning every time a draw occurs. 

And statistically, your odds of drawing as partners (if you go for high permit areas) is very nearly as good if you apply as partners as com$pared to drawing individually. Not quite as good, but very close. 

Having said that, my three sons and I always apply individually for these......m. In the hopes that we can enjoy a few over the years rather than jus ome year of shooting 4 moose. 
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Offline Oh Mah

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #36 on: May 28, 2017, 11:44:19 AM »
Happens all the time. Lots of camps with two tags that put in together.


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THIS IS NOT SAYING IT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR,THIS SAYS IT HAPPENS A LOT EVERY YEAR.
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Offline Dan-o

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #37 on: May 28, 2017, 11:57:29 AM »
Think about it this way:

Take an area with 15 tags. If you apply individually, you need to be one of the first 15 drawn to be a winner.    Conversely, if you apply as partners (2 people) you need to be one of the first 14 drawn. (if you are 15th drawn, the rules say you don't get it because there are insufficient tags remaining.)

That means you are 93 percent as likely to draw as partners. 

Now if you apply where there are only 2 tags, you are only 50 percent as likely to draw as partners (you need to draw the first of two tags). 


Cheers!
« Last Edit: May 28, 2017, 01:02:23 PM by Dan-o »
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Offline Oh Mah

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #38 on: May 28, 2017, 12:03:22 PM »
not exactly,as you said look at it this way:if there were only 20 groups in the draw of 1000 you are far less likely to draw as a group than 93%.As the chart shows only 5 groups were drawn out of 104 tags is that 93% as likely to draw?I think not.

cheers!
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Offline bobcat

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #39 on: May 28, 2017, 12:16:08 PM »
Dan's explanation is good. Personally I'd still prefer to apply individually because two hunters applying as individuals pretty much double the odds of one of them being drawn, versus both being drawn as partners. Simply because they've got two applications in the pool instead of only one.

Offline Oh Mah

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #40 on: May 28, 2017, 12:41:48 PM »
from you good enough(you're right most times).how does dans explanation make him right but your answer is same as mine?you are agreeing with me 100%
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Offline Dan-o

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #41 on: May 28, 2017, 12:50:40 PM »
not exactly,as you said look at it this way:if there were only 20 groups in the draw of 1000 you are far less likely to draw as a group than 93%.As the chart shows only 5 groups were drawn out of 104 tags is that 93% as likely to draw?I think not.

cheers!

The key word is relative.

In my example you are 93.3333333333333333333% as likely to draw as partners relative to drawing as an individual.

That statistic holds true whether there are 20 people trying for the 15 tags or 20,000,000 people trying for them.     

BOTTOM LINE:    Your adds of drawing a moose tag suck!    :chuckle:   And you will make your odds a little worse if you try to draw as partners.

I'd just like to draw a moose tag before I'm too old to do iti!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Offline Oh Mah

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #42 on: May 28, 2017, 12:55:43 PM »
 :chuckle: i agree except once again the words a lot and you're word a little.I agree with what bobcat said you have a 50% better chance of drawing as individual as you do drawing as a group.your odds are nill in over half of all the draws done in moose.dropping you're odds even more.as was said you have slightly better odds than nill in a couple  areas.

yes and you will have a more than 50% better chance of doing it if you go in individual before you're old  :chuckle:  :tup:
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Online h20hunter

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #43 on: May 28, 2017, 01:00:47 PM »
Apparently the only one who feels they need to be right is oh mah.
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Offline bobcat

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #44 on: May 28, 2017, 01:03:30 PM »
The point of this thread was about whether it's possible or likely to draw moose tags as a group. Answer is yes, it's possible and almost as likely as if you applied as individuals.

I'm no statistician, but let's just throw out some numbers here, let's say odds are .2% applying as partners and .4% applying as an individual. That's double the odds as an individual but you're still most likely not going to draw.

Offline Oh Mah

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #45 on: May 28, 2017, 01:12:58 PM »
Apparently the only one who feels they need to be right is oh mah.
wow,I think we all should have just asked you a long time ago,you are quite astute.Can you answer the rest of the forum questions with such precision?


BOBCAT:yes that is the question he has not come back to it yet to clarify what exactly he meant,I mean he asked us on this forum if it has been done,Is he asking if anyone on here has done it?I never said it can't be done nore have i said its impossible.


H20 yes i am right and don't care if you agree or not,if you put in for group hunt in one of the 15 tag areas you are doing so to gain points knowing that you most likely wont draw.I'll go back to what i said earlier 5 people got drawn because they were in a group,99 people drew because they were not in a group.Whats the % again?  :chuckle:
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Offline Oh Mah

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #46 on: May 28, 2017, 01:17:29 PM »
On average 5% of tags go to group vs 95% tags go to individual.
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Online h20hunter

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #47 on: May 28, 2017, 01:19:24 PM »
I can not, nor will I try. I am only astute enough to be able to see the forest for the trees. My point, as others have alluded to is you seem to argue points you agree with only to one up the other with the goal of being more right if that is even possible.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2017, 01:26:30 PM by h20hunter »
Yes, my FJ is pink, I'm all about Team Jacob, beer is not for the horses nor is whiskey for the men, they are both for me.

Offline Timberstalker

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #48 on: May 28, 2017, 01:20:13 PM »
Oh mah, you must be a bored individual.
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Offline Oh Mah

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Re: partner draw moose
« Reply #49 on: May 28, 2017, 01:26:23 PM »
Oh mah, you must be a bored individual.
did you read all of this thread?
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