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Author Topic: How many points do you have for your once in a lifetime hunt? Point creep....  (Read 2623 times)

Offline TD3939

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Well I received my  standard "not selected" notification and yeah, I was disappointed but not surprised.  When you factor in the total number of people applying for these limited permits year after year the numbers are not in our favor.  In fact, I would speculate that drawing one of these "quality" tags is turning into a once in a lifetime opportunity at best.  If you take lets say 15 tags available and 1500 people applying, well you do the math, the chances are  1 %.  For the 99% that don't draw, well we all get that point added to our total that makes us feel like maybe next year is our year.  The fact is, there's 99 other guys out there thinking the same sad thing....
This phenomena is apparently called "point creep" and it paints a grim picture of what our chances really are.

Just for the record, I have 16 "quality" deer points and 21 for elk..

I suggest we rename these tags from "Quality" to "Once in a life time"  because that's what we're really talking about.

Just sayin

Offline MuzzyHunter28

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I couldn't agree with you more! Its very disappointing. My pops is mad at him self for not starting me off with special points when I first started hunting. I could of had some serious cool hunts by now! 25 yrs old and haven't even drew a quality tag.....Been fortunate in some other category's...But no quality elk or deer yet.
Aim Small, Miss Small

Offline fishngamereaper

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I couldn't agree with you more! Its very disappointing. My pops is mad at him self for not starting me off with special points when I first started hunting. I could of had some serious cool hunts by now! 25 yrs old and haven't even drew a quality tag.....Been fortunate in some other category's...But no quality elk or deer yet.


 :chuckle: Some of us are almost twice your age and have barley drawn anything good. Get in line boy, your in for a long wait.

Offline huntnnw

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Our point system and draw system is not what you call point creep. Look at states such as UT,WY and CO that is point creep.

Offline Marcus

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You also need to keep in mind that the odds are not truely what they appear as your points are not 1:1 but a square +1 so if u hane 10 points u have 101 chances this year or 100 more chances of the guy with 1. It frys me though NR and Residents are considered in the same pool. No other western state does that accross the board. Lame

Offline WAcoueshunter

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It frys me though NR and Residents are considered in the same pool. No other western state does that accross the board. Lame

You could put a 10% cap on NRs and it wouldn't change anything here.  We weed out the NRs from our draws by having upfront, expensive and non-refundable deer and elk tags.  OIL isn't much different, very expensive to apply as a NR in WA for astronomical draw odds.  They are better off buying raffle tickets.  I'd be surprised if NRs made up 10% here for any species. 

Offline Miles

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Our point system and draw system is not what you call point creep. Look at states such as UT,WY and CO that is point creep.

Thank you.... I get so tired of people crying about point creep in wa.  A true preference point system has point creep when the total number of tags issued is not enough to clear out the max point holders (or top few).  The following year what took 10points to draw will now take 11 until tags increase in qty or people drop out of the pool.  If it doesn't clear out the group of hunters with 11 points, the following year it will start drawing at 12 points, etc...


For the last time....there is no point creep in WA so stop repeating the phrase just because you hear about it from other states.

Offline TD3939

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"For the last time....there is no point creep in WA so stop repeating the phrase just because you hear about it from other states."

Well you can call it whatever you'd like.  The fact is to use my simplistic example there's 98 other guys with one more point for next years draw and no real increase in chance of getting drawn for anything. 

We're all "creeping" along here year after year hoping that next year will be different when in fact, mathematically, it would almost be a miracle or 1 in a hundred.....

Online Bob33

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Ok. Points crawl.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline fishngamereaper

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Ok. Points crawl.

Which is how we get to bad after not drawing.

Offline Reidus

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It frys me though NR and Residents are considered in the same pool. No other western state does that accross the board. Lame

You could put a 10% cap on NRs and it wouldn't change anything here.  We weed out the NRs from our draws by having upfront, expensive and non-refundable deer and elk tags.  OIL isn't much different, very expensive to apply as a NR in WA for astronomical draw odds.  They are better off buying raffle tickets.  I'd be surprised if NRs made up 10% here for any species.
:yeah:
How many NR have you heard of drawing a good tag here?

Lots better options for NR in other states.

Offline Luckyone

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One of the Chelan Butte sheep tags went to a non-resident from California last year. There one for you!!!

Offline jmscon

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There was another former Washington resident, and current Hunt-wa guy, that drew a moose tag last year as well.
I don't know what I'm talking about because I live in the BIG CITY!
Once I thought I was wrong but I was mistaken.

Offline Reidus

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for the OIL's what does a NR have to buy to apply? just the app fee?

I was thinking more along the lines of deer and elk tags. Not many NR will buy tags in WA every year and apply. Probably a few do.

Offline bobcat

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I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.

Offline fish vacuum

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If you take lets say 15 tags available and 1500 people applying, well you do the math, the chances are  1 %. 
You could apply for the many quality hunts that have better odds.

Offline andrew_in_idaho

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I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.
$113 per species. To apply for a "quality" deer or elk tag would cost $113 plus the tag fee. That is an expensive spike only tag for nonresidents


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Offline Magnum_Willys

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Washington has Point Creep.  Each state has its own version.

Point Creep in Washington is when your odds don't increase next year.  If you have less than the average points, with all those above you having their points squared  your odds drop next year.  Aka - ones at the top not getting cleared out.  Only difference from Colorado is in Washington your odds drop but not to zero like Colorado's.

Offline bobcat

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Your odds may decrease slightly each year but to think in a positive way, a person with 20 points still has a 400 times greater chance of being drawn than the new hunter applying for the first time.

Offline boneaddict

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Point systems are the devil.
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Online Bigshooter

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Washington has Point Creep.  Each state has its own version.

Point Creep in Washington is when your odds don't increase next year.  If you have less than the average points, with all those above you having their points squared  your odds drop next year.  Aka - ones at the top not getting cleared out.  Only difference from Colorado is in Washington your odds drop but not to zero like Colorado's.

Wrong.
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Offline no.cen.wa

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Like BOBCAT says, if you have 20 points you will have 400 times your name will be in the draw. Well that's sort of true, the wdfw computer will then randomly assign a number to each of your 400 points. So if the wdfw computer god likes you you will get a low number,  Hasn't happened yet, I'll have 20 points next year. I do wish they would go to a system to get us "OLD FARTS" out of the draw, don't think that's likely, all they really want is my application fee. Oh well, maybe 20 more points will give me a chance, I'll need it then at 88 years old!
John G

Online Bob33

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I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.
I just made an attempt to estimate the odds of someone drawing a moose permit in 23 years of applying in Washington, based on the current number of applicants and points. I came up about 9%: apply for 23 years and have around a 1 in 10 chance of getting a moose permit sometime in those 23 years.

I suspect the odds of drawing a moose permit in Idaho in 23 years even as a non-resident would be much higher.

To me the lesson is simple: if you really hunt to hunt moose in your lifetime, don't count on doing it in Washington unless you can afford to buy the auction permit. :twocents:
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline Miles

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Washington has Point Creep.  Each state has its own version.

Point Creep in Washington is when your odds don't increase next year.  If you have less than the average points, with all those above you having their points squared  your odds drop next year.  Aka - ones at the top not getting cleared out.  Only difference from Colorado is in Washington your odds drop but not to zero like Colorado's.

Wrong.

It's like talking to a wall Bigshooter.  Don't waste your time.

Just post something about point creep in wa and watch everyone pile in to back up your claims.  Lol

Offline WAcoueshunter

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Washington has Point Creep.  Each state has its own version.

Point Creep in Washington is when your odds don't increase next year.  If you have less than the average points, with all those above you having their points squared  your odds drop next year.  Aka - ones at the top not getting cleared out.  Only difference from Colorado is in Washington your odds drop but not to zero like Colorado's.

Wrong.

This debate always cracks me up.  So who is the keeper of the official definition of "points creep"?  Webster's? 

Same concept, it just gets applied differently between a weighted system and a true preference point system (or a combo of the two). 

 

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