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Author Topic: How many points do you have for your once in a lifetime hunt? Point creep....  (Read 9160 times)

Offline fish vacuum

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If you take lets say 15 tags available and 1500 people applying, well you do the math, the chances are  1 %. 
You could apply for the many quality hunts that have better odds.

Offline andrew_in_idaho

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I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.
$113 per species. To apply for a "quality" deer or elk tag would cost $113 plus the tag fee. That is an expensive spike only tag for nonresidents


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Offline Magnum_Willys

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Washington has Point Creep.  Each state has its own version.

Point Creep in Washington is when your odds don't increase next year.  If you have less than the average points, with all those above you having their points squared  your odds drop next year.  Aka - ones at the top not getting cleared out.  Only difference from Colorado is in Washington your odds drop but not to zero like Colorado's.

Offline bobcat

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Your odds may decrease slightly each year but to think in a positive way, a person with 20 points still has a 400 times greater chance of being drawn than the new hunter applying for the first time.

Offline boneaddict

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Point systems are the devil.

Offline Bigshooter

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Washington has Point Creep.  Each state has its own version.

Point Creep in Washington is when your odds don't increase next year.  If you have less than the average points, with all those above you having their points squared  your odds drop next year.  Aka - ones at the top not getting cleared out.  Only difference from Colorado is in Washington your odds drop but not to zero like Colorado's.

Wrong.
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Offline no.cen.wa

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Like BOBCAT says, if you have 20 points you will have 400 times your name will be in the draw. Well that's sort of true, the wdfw computer will then randomly assign a number to each of your 400 points. So if the wdfw computer god likes you you will get a low number,  Hasn't happened yet, I'll have 20 points next year. I do wish they would go to a system to get us "OLD FARTS" out of the draw, don't think that's likely, all they really want is my application fee. Oh well, maybe 20 more points will give me a chance, I'll need it then at 88 years old!
John G

Offline Bob33

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I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.
I just made an attempt to estimate the odds of someone drawing a moose permit in 23 years of applying in Washington, based on the current number of applicants and points. I came up about 9%: apply for 23 years and have around a 1 in 10 chance of getting a moose permit sometime in those 23 years.

I suspect the odds of drawing a moose permit in Idaho in 23 years even as a non-resident would be much higher.

To me the lesson is simple: if you really hunt to hunt moose in your lifetime, don't count on doing it in Washington unless you can afford to buy the auction permit. :twocents:
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline Miles

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Washington has Point Creep.  Each state has its own version.

Point Creep in Washington is when your odds don't increase next year.  If you have less than the average points, with all those above you having their points squared  your odds drop next year.  Aka - ones at the top not getting cleared out.  Only difference from Colorado is in Washington your odds drop but not to zero like Colorado's.

Wrong.

It's like talking to a wall Bigshooter.  Don't waste your time.

Just post something about point creep in wa and watch everyone pile in to back up your claims.  Lol

Offline WAcoueshunter

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Washington has Point Creep.  Each state has its own version.

Point Creep in Washington is when your odds don't increase next year.  If you have less than the average points, with all those above you having their points squared  your odds drop next year.  Aka - ones at the top not getting cleared out.  Only difference from Colorado is in Washington your odds drop but not to zero like Colorado's.

Wrong.

This debate always cracks me up.  So who is the keeper of the official definition of "points creep"?  Webster's? 

Same concept, it just gets applied differently between a weighted system and a true preference point system (or a combo of the two). 

Offline Miles

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Wa just doesn't want to be left out...

Offline Curly

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Points creep means you never quite have enough points to draw. It's always out of reach.

In WA, everyone has a chance, even the new guy that just put in for the first time.
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Offline Miles

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Points creep means you never quite have enough points to draw. It's always out of reach.

In WA, everyone has a chance, even the new guy that just put in for the first time.


Those who have never participated in a true preference point system are having a very hard time understanding this concept.

Offline Stein

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Point creep isn't exactly a Webster defined term.  In my mind, it means it is getting harder to draw a tag in a given area year over year.  In some states, your chance will be zero, in WA, your chance is moving toward zero.  You still have a chance, but it goes down every year.

For a new hunter, they are mathematically similar.  If you start putting in with one point and the draw will never clear out the pack of guys with 20+ points, you had better be one lucky hombre.

It's actually the beauty of WA's system.  In a state that doesn't clear max and you need max to draw, you would be smart to quit and go elsewhere.  In WA, you always have a chance and it's only a few bucks to try.

Offline Reidus

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Point creep isn't exactly a Webster defined term.  In my mind, it means it is getting harder to draw a tag in a given area year over year.  In some states, your chance will be zero, in WA, your chance is moving toward zero.  You still have a chance, but it goes down every year.

For a new hunter, they are mathematically similar.  If you start putting in with one point and the draw will never clear out the pack of guys with 20+ points, you had better be one lucky hombre.

It's actually the beauty of WA's system.  In a state that doesn't clear max and you need max to draw, you would be smart to quit and go elsewhere.  In WA, you always have a chance and it's only a few bucks to try.

says the guy that drew :chuckle:

 

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