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Author Topic: How many points do you have for your once in a lifetime hunt? Point creep....  (Read 2672 times)

Offline Miles

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Wa just doesn't want to be left out...

Offline Curly

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Points creep means you never quite have enough points to draw. It's always out of reach.

In WA, everyone has a chance, even the new guy that just put in for the first time.
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Offline Miles

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Points creep means you never quite have enough points to draw. It's always out of reach.

In WA, everyone has a chance, even the new guy that just put in for the first time.


Those who have never participated in a true preference point system are having a very hard time understanding this concept.

Offline Stein

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Point creep isn't exactly a Webster defined term.  In my mind, it means it is getting harder to draw a tag in a given area year over year.  In some states, your chance will be zero, in WA, your chance is moving toward zero.  You still have a chance, but it goes down every year.

For a new hunter, they are mathematically similar.  If you start putting in with one point and the draw will never clear out the pack of guys with 20+ points, you had better be one lucky hombre.

It's actually the beauty of WA's system.  In a state that doesn't clear max and you need max to draw, you would be smart to quit and go elsewhere.  In WA, you always have a chance and it's only a few bucks to try.

Offline Reidus

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Point creep isn't exactly a Webster defined term.  In my mind, it means it is getting harder to draw a tag in a given area year over year.  In some states, your chance will be zero, in WA, your chance is moving toward zero.  You still have a chance, but it goes down every year.

For a new hunter, they are mathematically similar.  If you start putting in with one point and the draw will never clear out the pack of guys with 20+ points, you had better be one lucky hombre.

It's actually the beauty of WA's system.  In a state that doesn't clear max and you need max to draw, you would be smart to quit and go elsewhere.  In WA, you always have a chance and it's only a few bucks to try.

says the guy that drew :chuckle:

Online Bob33

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Offline jmscon

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I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.
$113 per species. To apply for a "quality" deer or elk tag would cost $113 plus the tag fee. That is an expensive spike only tag for nonresidents


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And you still have to buy the license to apply for the special permits!

Elk university said that if you are a non resident don't even bother trying to hunt in Washington. Building points as a non resident is fruitless.
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Offline Curly

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Actually, I don't think you need a license to apply for the 3 OIL species.  So, non residents can apply for OIL species rather inexpensively.  :twocents:

(That is how people are getting their one year old baby a WILD ID # and buying them points for Moose, Goat, and Sheep.  By the time the kid is old enough to hunt, they could have a dozen points for OIL species). :twocents:
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Offline jmscon

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Actually, I don't think you need a license to apply for the 3 OIL species.  So, non residents can apply for OIL species rather inexpensively.  :twocents:

(That is how people are getting their one year old baby a WILD ID # and buying them points for Moose, Goat, and Sheep.  By the time the kid is old enough to hunt, they could have a dozen points for OIL species). :twocents:

For deer and elk you have to buy the license to apply oil you are correct you don't.
I don't know what I'm talking about because I live in the BIG CITY!
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Online Bob33

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Actually, I don't think you need a license to apply for the 3 OIL species.  So, non residents can apply for OIL species rather inexpensively.  :twocents:

(That is how people are getting their one year old baby a WILD ID # and buying them points for Moose, Goat, and Sheep.  By the time the kid is old enough to hunt, they could have a dozen points for OIL species). :twocents:
That is true, although I wouldn't necessarily consider $113 for an application inexpensive, especially considering the low odds of drawing.
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Offline WAcoueshunter

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Points creep means you never quite have enough points to draw. It's always out of reach.

In WA, everyone has a chance, even the new guy that just put in for the first time.


Those who have never participated in a true preference point system are having a very hard time understanding this concept.

 :rolleyes:  I participate in CO, WY, AZ, and have for many years.  I get the difference you are trying to make.  I just don't agree that "points creep" means only what you think it does.   

Offline Bigshooter

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Pt creep means it will take 1 more pt to guarantee you draw a tag next year than it did this year. Plain and simple.
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Online Bob33

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Fool’s Gold: Points systems offer false hope, poorer odds

Up in Anchorage, there is a famous bar/institution called Chilkoot Charlie’s. It’s one of those go-to places. They have a tongue-in- cheek motto they print on their shirts that says, “We cheat the other guy and pass the savings on to you!”

Somehow, when they came up with that, they must have had bonus/preference points systems in the backs of their minds. A better quote simply couldn’t exist on the subject.

On its surface, the idea of a points system sounds decent enough. Everyone grab a number, take your spot in line, and we’ll all get treated “fairly”. It’s hunting’s version of socialism. The problem with most things of a socialistic nature, though, is that people quickly learn to rely on it and exploit it.

Those who are proponents of such a system tend to look at the more immediate benefit rather than the long-term effects. “If I get in on the ground floor, it’ll put me at the front of the line and I’ll be guaranteed a tag.”

But what about after the first round? What happens then?

There are two overlying assumptions about bonus points. The first is that it always works in all scenarios. The second is that there is no net increase in applicants. Simply put, neither is true.

Let’s back up a second, though. There are a few questions we should be asking to see whether the idea of these points passes the basic litmus test of whether it makes it more likely that you will draw the tag. 1) Does a points system put more deer/elk/sheep on the mountain? The answer is obviously, “No”; 2) Does a points system increase the number of tags? Again, the answer is, “No”; 3) Does a points system make for fewer people putting in for the tag? And that question, folks, is where the light bulb should have just come on.

Let’s address that question in detail. In my home state of Idaho, we don’t have a points system. Along with New Mexico, we’re the last holdouts. Because there is no specific impetus to either put in or risk falling behind in your point totals, there is a percentage of people who are very casual about applying – those who just kind of got busy, or didn’t really have the heart or money this year, or think, “I never draw; screw it, I’m just going to keep my $10 this year.” Under a points system, that percentage of people would now have much more motivation to keep putting in or risk falling behind. My guess is that alone counts for at least a 10% increase in applicants.

Another situation arises in points scenarios where savvy but perhaps less scrupulous hunters will use the system to their advantage by putting in non-hunting friends and family, with the strategy of building up their points over time so that eventually they can put in with them in a party, split/average the points, and draw tags at a faster rate. This creates two problems. First, a person draws tags at an unfair and manipulated rate. Second, that tag that was drawn by the non-hunter either goes straight into the trash can (and right out of the pocket of a deserving hunter) or it ends up going to a person who couldn’t care less about the tag, rather than to a hunter who may have cared deeply about having that tag.

The net result of either scenario, though, is the same. Once you’ve gone through your first round of drawing and now come back in at the bottom, you now have more people in the draw than you would have without a points system. The final net effect is that you have adopted a system that has the same number of tags, with more people in the draw, which ultimately just permanently lowered your chances and/or rate of drawing a tag.

So, we instituted our points system and thus encouraged more people into the draw for the same number of tags. How’s it working so far?

There’s another situation here that makes points a bad idea. What about any group that comes into the draw at a later date? Those who didn’t get in on the ground floor? The one group that we as hunter-conservationists have a proud history of fostering is our youth. “Pass it on” has been a mantra starting from Teddy Roosevelt and now carried today by the likes of the RMEF. This type of points system shoves our youth into a black hole that can take them half or more of their lifetimes to escape.

The longer these points systems stay in place, the more it turns into its own sideshow. Every state that has them has multiple examples where there is still no ceiling. Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and others all are in the mid-20s and still climbing, with no end in sight. They have turned many tags into once-in- a-lifetime tags (at best) by default.

Soon, this nebulous, nefarious patchwork quilt will have new rules adopted on how to deal with “end of life” points debacles. Grandpa will likely be “willing” his 45 sheep points to the grandson of his choice. Families will be fighting over how his points will be split.

Sound ridiculous? Well, it is, but sadly, truth might be stranger than fiction on this one.

Hunting isn’t fair. Of all the endeavors you will pursue in your lifetime, hunting – guaranteed – will be the least fair of them all. That’s why we love it. Each day brings the promise that it only takes once, and today could be that day. It’s the enticement of hope that keeps us going.

With a simple lottery, everyone has that chance, and they have that chance every year. With a simple lottery, the net odds of all of the most interested parties drawing a tag go up, rather than a net decrease or that non-interested parties have tags in their hands. This is a prime example of using the KISS approach and not overcomplicating the obvious.

http://www.themeateater.com/2016/fools-gold-points-systems-offer-false-hope-poorer-odds/
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Offline jackelope

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Online KNOPHISH

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a better motto would follow a lot of bar signs of Free beer tomorrow.
changed to you will draw a good tag next year.
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Offline boneaddict

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Quote
I suspect the odds of drawing a moose permit in Idaho in 23 years even as a non-resident would be much higher.

First Year I applied.....

next year I put my Dad in and he drew first year!


Had to front the fee, couldn't apply for deer and elk, no points.  
There were 60 people applying for 15 tags or so.   Versus Washington! 
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Online Bob33

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Quote
I suspect the odds of drawing a moose permit in Idaho in 23 years even as a non-resident would be much higher.

First Year I applied.....

next year I put my Dad in and he drew first year!


Had to front the fee, couldn't apply for deer and elk, no points.  
There were 60 people applying for 15 tags or so.   Versus Washington!
Much better way to go. You front the fee but get most of it refunded if not drawn. In 20 years you're almost certain to get a chance to hunt moose. In Washington your odds of getting a permit in 20 years are at best around 10%-20%.
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Offline no.cen.wa

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Offline Magnum_Willys

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Yea point creep as I call it in Washington is more complicated then point creep as I call it in Colorado.

The commonality is that even though your points go up your odds don't or they even go down.   In Colorado its a simple concept - it takes x points for 100% certainty of draw one year but x+1 points next year. In Washington the squared odds complicate the results and there is never a certainty of anything.

Offline TD3939

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Wow thanks for all the dialog on my post here.  I guess for me it's more of a venting than anything because I know there's nothing I can do to change it.  So I guess I'll just keep creeping along here and swallow my yearly disappointment.  That being said I didn't comprehend until after reading a few of your replies that it possible my chances actually go down every year I'm unsuccessful.  I'm assuming this is because of the mathematical advantage of squaring the point total of all of the people in the pool with more points than I have.  Wow that is depressing......I propose we name this phenomena "point crapping" 

Just sayin..

Offline Bangflop

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The game department in this state is stingy as hell with tags. Units with 1 or 2 elk tags are a joke. It's like dangling a carrot. In really those hunts should have 10 or 15 tags. But some bunny hugging biologists calls the shots and has some really unrealistic ideas.
The best advice I have heard so far to insure a quality tag is to live as long as possible. LOL. Hope I can walk when I'm 95.

Offline Bangflop

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I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/publications/01903/wdfw01903.pdf 

Read this it will help you make accurate statements.


Offline bobcat

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I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/publications/01903/wdfw01903.pdf 

Read this it will help you make accurate statements.

That's okay, I already looked it up in the 2017 pamphlet. Yeah, I was thinking of when it used to be only about $50. It's double that now and someone corrected my statement soon after I posted it.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2017, 11:34:55 PM by bobcat »

Offline huntnphool

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 For the OP, and everybody else unhappy with the system, what is YOUR solution?

 It's easy to sit back and bitch, not saying that the OP is, how about laying out your better system, here http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,214387.msg2854553.html#msg2854553 is your chance.
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Offline TD3939

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For the OP, and everybody else unhappy with the system, what is YOUR solution?

I guess for a start I would allocate a certain percentage of the tags to the applicants with the max number of points.  Only seems fair.  I realize this is a problem where there's only one tag for a certain hunt.  Have to figure out a work around for that one.  Ideally more tags would be be best for every scenario.  One solution for generating more premium tags for the future would be to END native American poaching.  Use every resource  possible to make this happen.  As we all know when a herd or particular resource starts to expand and become healthy and thriving they're the one group that continually exploits it just because it's legal in this wonderful state.  For example Entiat deer, Clockum Elk, and Desert deer. 

I would also consider permit only hunting for deer and elk.  I know that sounds drastic, but personally I'd rather have a premium hunt every  3 years than every year the way it is now.

My solution for what ever it's worth