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Author Topic: Don't forget your multi-season application  (Read 3074 times)

Offline Oh Mah

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #30 on: March 30, 2018, 03:32:54 PM »
The data comes from this site: https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2017.php

This gives the number of applicants with each point level.

You need to square the points and multiply them times the number of applicants for each level, and then sum them.

For example, the data shows that two applicants had 11 points. Each had 121 names in the hat (11x11). Multiplying 11 times the 2 applicants means that applicants with 11 points had a total of 242 names “in the hat”.

I copy the data, paste it into Excel, and do the math.
With these numbers are the group numbers taken into account already?This chart really shows how the odds drop with the more points you have.  :yike:looks like 4 points is the best place to be.
"Boss of the woods"
(this is in reference to the biggie not me).

Offline Bob33

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #31 on: March 30, 2018, 03:59:56 PM »
More points = more names in the hat = better chance of drawing.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline Oh Mah

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #32 on: March 30, 2018, 04:03:12 PM »
except there is only 242 names in the hat with 11 points and over 24k in the hat with just 4 points.odds are in favor of the people with 4 points.
"Boss of the woods"
(this is in reference to the biggie not me).

Offline W_Ellison2011

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #33 on: March 30, 2018, 04:44:55 PM »
except there is only 242 names in the hat with 11 points and over 24k in the hat with just 4 points.odds are in favor of the people with 4 points.
I don't think you are getting the math. The guys with 11 points still have a higher % chance of being draw due to the fact that there names are on more cards in the hat than any other individual. Now the odds of being drawn in the groups of 3, 4, and 5 points are high but that's only because of how many people applied in with those point groups. Its an algorithm to be honest. Reason being is that every time someone from one of the groups the number changes and thus the chances change. Its a pain in the ass to figure out especially since you don't know which names are drawn and how many points they had. Good news though.. I foresee it being the same as the past 2-3 years where they end up selling a bunch over the counter. Only issue with that is they sell them out within 5 minutes for elk. Deer I could have picked one up a couple weeks after they sold otc!

Offline Oh Mah

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #34 on: March 30, 2018, 05:06:56 PM »
I WISH IT WAS: BUY TAG FOR MULTI WITHOUT BUYING LICENSE IF DRAWN DRAWN ALREADY PAID FOR.REIMBURSE THE REST.PUT IN FOR ALL SPECIAL HUNT PERMITS AND BUY OTHER LICENSES NEEDED FOR SEASON AFTER MULTI SEASON DRAW.
"Boss of the woods"
(this is in reference to the biggie not me).

Offline Ghost Hunter

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #35 on: March 30, 2018, 06:01:26 PM »
except there is only 242 names in the hat with 11 points and over 24k in the hat with just 4 points.odds are in favor of the people with 4 points.
I don't think you are getting the math. The guys with 11 points still have a higher % chance of being draw due to the fact that there names are on more cards in the hat than any other individual. Now the odds of being drawn in the groups of 3, 4, and 5 points are high but that's only because of how many people applied in with those point groups. Its an algorithm to be honest. Reason being is that every time someone from one of the groups the number changes and thus the chances change. Its a pain in the ass to figure out especially since you don't know which names are drawn and how many points they had. Good news though.. I foresee it being the same as the past 2-3 years where they end up selling a bunch over the counter. Only issue with that is they sell them out within 5 minutes for elk. Deer I could have picked one up a couple weeks after they sold otc!

There was a few over 50 MS elk tags left over last year that sold out in a few seconds.  (Think about every vender pushing a button at the same moment.)  I got one of them.  It took about 15 minutes for the system to grind them out.
Economy failure = Too many people spending money they don't have on things they don't need to impress people they don't like.

Offline W_Ellison2011

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #36 on: March 30, 2018, 06:08:57 PM »
except there is only 242 names in the hat with 11 points and over 24k in the hat with just 4 points.odds are in favor of the people with 4 points.
I don't think you are getting the math. The guys with 11 points still have a higher % chance of being draw due to the fact that there names are on more cards in the hat than any other individual. Now the odds of being drawn in the groups of 3, 4, and 5 points are high but that's only because of how many people applied in with those point groups. Its an algorithm to be honest. Reason being is that every time someone from one of the groups the number changes and thus the chances change. Its a pain in the ass to figure out especially since you don't know which names are drawn and how many points they had. Good news though.. I foresee it being the same as the past 2-3 years where they end up selling a bunch over the counter. Only issue with that is they sell them out within 5 minutes for elk. Deer I could have picked one up a couple weeks after they sold otc!

There was a few over 50 MS elk tags left over last year that sold out in a few seconds.  (Think about every vender pushing a button at the same moment.)  I got one of them.  It took about 15 minutes for the system to grind them out.
Tell me if I'm wrong but they let anyone buy them at that point right?

Offline Oh Mah

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #37 on: March 30, 2018, 06:11:53 PM »
only people that applied. tick - tock
"Boss of the woods"
(this is in reference to the biggie not me).

Offline Ghost Hunter

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #38 on: March 30, 2018, 06:22:32 PM »

only people that applied. tick - tock
:yeah:

Economy failure = Too many people spending money they don't have on things they don't need to impress people they don't like.

Offline trophyhunt

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #39 on: March 30, 2018, 06:32:16 PM »
I WISH IT WAS: BUY TAG FOR MULTI WITHOUT BUYING LICENSE IF DRAWN DRAWN ALREADY PAID FOR.REIMBURSE THE REST.PUT IN FOR ALL SPECIAL HUNT PERMITS AND BUY OTHER LICENSES NEEDED FOR SEASON AFTER MULTI SEASON DRAW.
why are you yelling at us?????      :chuckle:
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline Oh Mah

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #40 on: March 30, 2018, 06:42:06 PM »
my laptop is 14 years old,sometimes it hangs.  :tup: why rewrite just because all caps
"Boss of the woods"
(this is in reference to the biggie not me).

Offline Oh Mah

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #41 on: March 30, 2018, 06:43:13 PM »
oh wait,IM NOT YELLING,IM SIMPLY SPEAKING AT A LEVEL FOR ALL TO HEAR SO EVERYBODY CAN LEARN FROM THESE MISTAKES.  :chuckle: private.
"Boss of the woods"
(this is in reference to the biggie not me).

Offline Recon

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #42 on: March 31, 2018, 09:17:31 AM »
Does anyone know how long after today before they post the results?

Offline trophyhunt

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #43 on: March 31, 2018, 10:41:47 AM »
Does anyone know how long after today before they post the results?
If I remember right it should only be a couple weeks.
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline Oh Mah

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Re: Don't forget your multi-season application
« Reply #44 on: March 31, 2018, 11:10:09 AM »
i think its usually 9th or 10th.  But you never know.
"Boss of the woods"
(this is in reference to the biggie not me).

 

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