Big Game Hunting > Out Of State Hunting
Point Creep
Bob33:
In our bonus point system draw odds do increase from year to year for those in the lower point tiers such as 1 to 10 points. Going from year 1 to year 2, names in the hat increases from one to four. Those at the upper ends experience a slight decrease. The problem is that if you don't get in or stay in the game your odds are between zero and worse.
actionshooter:
--- Quote from: Bigshooter on April 12, 2015, 01:32:13 AM ---
--- Quote from: idahohuntr on April 11, 2015, 10:47:12 PM ---Semantics. The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.
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You odds never change in a preference pt system they are 0% until you have enough pts to draw. So in a preference pt system your odds get better. Pt creep just adds a couple years on to how many pts you need until you draw. It's nothing like a bonus pt system where you can draw with fewer pts than what the average pts draw are. Those average pts draw numbers are fools gold. They are some of the reason why people get mad that they didn't draw in a bonus pt system.
When those average pts in WA guarantee me a tag then I will consider it pt creep. But when someone can draw with less than the averge pts it isn't pt creep.
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This is right on the money, true "point creep" only happens in states where you are guaranteed a tag if you have enough points to "buy" (for lack of a better word) the tag.
In Wyoming if it takes 4 points to obtain a tag for a specific draw everyone who put in with 4 points or more will draw that tag until there are more people with 4 (or more) points putting in than tags available.
Its frustrating when you have your eyes on a tag and the required points go up. :(
pd:
--- Quote from: idahohuntr on April 10, 2015, 05:04:37 PM ---Point creep is at play in WA as well. For example, in 2012, if you applied for a quality deer Entiat MF tag with 10pts your odds were approximately 2%. In 2014, with 10 points for the same hunt your odds were 1%. Now here is the kicker...the guy with 10 pts in 2012 had 2% draw odds, in 2014 with 12pts, his odds of drawing the tag are 1.5% As more "points" are added to the system your odds go down and the value of each point diminishes at a rate greater than your individual increase in points/odds.
The bottom line here is that point systems are 110% a ponzi scheme. You get in on the base level or you are SOL. And really, even those on the base level are fighting a losing game. One last bit of advice...never invest or do business with anyone who has something positive to say about point systems :chuckle: :chuckle:
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Best explanation that I've read.