2018 Washington Wild Sheep Foundation Banquet and Auction

[JoeE]

The same person has won a tag from the western hunt expo raffle multiple years in a row.

This year in Washington another person beat the odds and won both sheep hunts.

Both these raffles have same odds for everyone because you can't buy multiple tickets for the raffles.

When it comes to things like raffles, lotteries, etc greed comes into play and eventually you will read that one of the conservation groups local or national chapters had some funny business going on with a raffle. Not saying there was anything wrong with either of the 2 events I listed above. Those are just examples of major odds being overcome by luck. You see fraud with churches, government, charities, so why would conservation groups be excluded? Mark my words it will come out whether it happens at a small local turkey banquet or something big like the western hunt expo. When crazy odds get overcome time and again eventually it won't be just luck. It will be tampering.

Exactly. Fraud, corruption and scams happen everywhere in almost all organizations. To think it can’t happen in a conservation group with that much money on the line is asinine. After looking at the numbers and how completely out of this world unlikely the odds were, coupled with the fact that it was an insider you have to ask yourself, what at is more likely, somebody beat odds that would taken 150,000 attempts to recreate or somebody messed with the draw? I know what the laws of probability suggest.

We will never know the answer but what happened should raise serious questions with anybody who invests in this group.

[trophyhunt]

The same person has won a tag from the western hunt expo raffle multiple years in a row.

This year in Washington another person beat the odds and won both sheep hunts.

Both these raffles have same odds for everyone because you can't buy multiple tickets for the raffles.

When it comes to things like raffles, lotteries, etc greed comes into play and eventually you will read that one of the conservation groups local or national chapters had some funny business going on with a raffle. Not saying there was anything wrong with either of the 2 events I listed above. Those are just examples of major odds being overcome by luck. You see fraud with churches, government, charities, so why would conservation groups be excluded? Mark my words it will come out whether it happens at a small local turkey banquet or something big like the western hunt expo. When crazy odds get overcome time and again eventually it won't be just luck. It will be tampering.

Exactly. Fraud, corruption and scams happen everywhere in almost all organizations. To think it can’t happen in a conservation group with that much money on the line is asinine. After looking at the numbers and how completely out of this world unlikely the odds were, coupled with the fact that it was an insider you have to ask yourself, what at is more likely, somebody beat odds that would taken 150,000 attempts to recreate or somebody messed with the draw? I know what the laws of probability suggest.

We will never know the answer but what happened should raise serious questions with anybody who invests in this group.

It does sound like they are addressing this issue, I think they want nothing but 100% confidence in the draws and I think we will see a positive change.  I know if I won both hunts I'd feel pretty happy giving one of them to my friends, they'd have to draw straws!! Maybe it's as simple as a new rule that you can't win both hunts?  Who would have thought you'd need such a rule?

[SilkOnTheDrySide]

The same person has won a tag from the western hunt expo raffle multiple years in a row.

This year in Washington another person beat the odds and won both sheep hunts.

Both these raffles have same odds for everyone because you can't buy multiple tickets for the raffles.

When it comes to things like raffles, lotteries, etc greed comes into play and eventually you will read that one of the conservation groups local or national chapters had some funny business going on with a raffle. Not saying there was anything wrong with either of the 2 events I listed above. Those are just examples of major odds being overcome by luck. You see fraud with churches, government, charities, so why would conservation groups be excluded? Mark my words it will come out whether it happens at a small local turkey banquet or something big like the western hunt expo. When crazy odds get overcome time and again eventually it won't be just luck. It will be tampering.

Exactly. Fraud, corruption and scams happen everywhere in almost all organizations. To think it can’t happen in a conservation group with that much money on the line is asinine. After looking at the numbers and how completely out of this world unlikely the odds were, coupled with the fact that it was an insider you have to ask yourself, what at is more likely, somebody beat odds that would taken 150,000 attempts to recreate or somebody messed with the draw? I know what the laws of probability suggest.

We will never know the answer but what happened should raise serious questions with anybody who invests in this group.

It does sound like they are addressing this issue, I think they want nothing but 100% confidence in the draws and I think we will see a positive change.  I know if I won both hunts I'd feel pretty happy giving one of them to my friends, they'd have to draw straws!! Maybe it's as simple as a new rule that you can't win both hunts?  Who would have thought you'd need such a rule?

Occams Razor.




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[Rainier10]

The same person has won a tag from the western hunt expo raffle multiple years in a row.

This year in Washington another person beat the odds and won both sheep hunts.

Both these raffles have same odds for everyone because you can't buy multiple tickets for the raffles.

When it comes to things like raffles, lotteries, etc greed comes into play and eventually you will read that one of the conservation groups local or national chapters had some funny business going on with a raffle. Not saying there was anything wrong with either of the 2 events I listed above. Those are just examples of major odds being overcome by luck. You see fraud with churches, government, charities, so why would conservation groups be excluded? Mark my words it will come out whether it happens at a small local turkey banquet or something big like the western hunt expo. When crazy odds get overcome time and again eventually it won't be just luck. It will be tampering.

Exactly. Fraud, corruption and scams happen everywhere in almost all organizations. To think it can’t happen in a conservation group with that much money on the line is asinine. After looking at the numbers and how completely out of this world unlikely the odds were, coupled with the fact that it was an insider you have to ask yourself, what at is more likely, somebody beat odds that would taken 150,000 attempts to recreate or somebody messed with the draw? I know what the laws of probability suggest.

We will never know the answer but what happened should raise serious questions with anybody who invests in this group.

It does sound like they are addressing this issue, I think they want nothing but 100% confidence in the draws and I think we will see a positive change.  I know if I won both hunts I'd feel pretty happy giving one of them to my friends, they'd have to draw straws!! Maybe it's as simple as a new rule that you can't win both hunts?  Who would have thought you'd need such a rule?

Occams Razor.




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Had to go to the googler for that one.  Occam's Razor or Ockham's razor

[coachcw]

It would be pretty simple. Everyone gets there ticket when they come in the door . Then you just drop your ticket in the hopper right on center stage for all to see . Once a winner is drawn it could be sealed . Then checked by a independent firm for duplicate names . Draw a alternate just in case.

[trophyhunt]

It would be pretty simple. Everyone gets there ticket when they come in the door . Then you just drop your ticket in the hopper right on center stage for all to see . Once a winner is drawn it could be sealed . Then checked by a independent firm for duplicate names . Draw a alternate just in case.

[scree]

The same person has won a tag from the western hunt expo raffle multiple years in a row.

This year in Washington another person beat the odds and won both sheep hunts.

Both these raffles have same odds for everyone because you can't buy multiple tickets for the raffles.

When it comes to things like raffles, lotteries, etc greed comes into play and eventually you will read that one of the conservation groups local or national chapters had some funny business going on with a raffle. Not saying there was anything wrong with either of the 2 events I listed above. Those are just examples of major odds being overcome by luck. You see fraud with churches, government, charities, so why would conservation groups be excluded? Mark my words it will come out whether it happens at a small local turkey banquet or something big like the western hunt expo. When crazy odds get overcome time and again eventually it won't be just luck. It will be tampering.

Exactly. Fraud, corruption and scams happen everywhere in almost all organizations. To think it can’t happen in a conservation group with that much money on the line is asinine. After looking at the numbers and how completely out of this world unlikely the odds were, coupled with the fact that it was an insider you have to ask yourself, what at is more likely, somebody beat odds that would taken 150,000 attempts to recreate or somebody messed with the draw? I know what the laws of probability suggest.

We will never know the answer but what happened should raise serious questions with anybody who invests in this group.

While I agree that no organization is immune to fraud I can (and have) given my word that there was nothing fraudulent with our drawings. 

Joe this is my public invitation to you to volunteer to oversee the 2019 process from empty tumbler to drawing. We will be adjusting how we do business and you certainly will not be alone with the tickets (nor will anyone be).  As we have always done, people can watch their tickets go in the tumbler.  The first year we allowed people to put their own tickets in but we kept having people manipulate the tickets (fold corners crinkle them etc.) even after being asked not to.  This way all every single ticket is un-altered.

[JoeE]

I’ll do that Andy. I think there should be a few people that oversee the drawing.

[Tbar]

@Scree
Your organization also conducts the raffle for the Rocky mountain bighorn sheep, correct?

[trophyhunt]

I’ll do that Andy. I think there should be a few people that oversee the drawing.

Only problem I see here is, you should be in the drawing joe.  I just don’t think people who are in control of the tumbler or tickets should be in the draw. Just my thoughts. I don’t see where bending tickets is a problem, that happens with every raffle I’ve ever been in.  Even in Reno the raffle tickets for the other hunts had a lot folded. 

[scree]

@Scree
Your organization also conducts the raffle for the Rocky mountain bighorn sheep, correct?

We do, that one is drawn by a WDFW employee and it is usually in the foyer at the natural resource building; although, last year we had to do it in a room down there because the foyer was booked for something else.  I think we are going to FB it live it this year.

We have been tapped out with the banquet but the raffle flyer should be out this week.  It is written but it is at WDFW for review.  Hopefully tomorrow we will have the OK.

[scree]

I’ll do that Andy. I think there should be a few people that oversee the drawing.

Thanks Joe 

[Tbar]

@Scree
Your organization also conducts the raffle for the Rocky mountain bighorn sheep, correct?

We do, that one is drawn by a WDFW employee and it is usually in the foyer at the natural resource building; although, last year we had to do it in a room down there because the foyer was booked for something else.  I think we are going to FB it live it this year.

We have been tapped out with the banquet but the raffle flyer should be out this week.  It is written but it is at WDFW for review.  Hopefully tomorrow we will have the OK.

Why is there no way to find out how many tickets have been sold prior to the drawing?

[scree]

It is uncommon for anyone to ask and when they do we let them know. It is no secret.  We could have our FB administrator post it occasionally.  That question has not been posed to me before... Good point thanks for bringing it up.           

[Tbar]

It was posed to a board member (water under the bridge at this point)  by myself and another.  The reason being a wise man once said,  luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.  This rings true in raffles throughout the west annually. By not publicly posting a ticket ticker, and a select few having knowledge of number sold influences luck.  Raffles are meant to generate revenue, correct? They give the guise of "luck" (and it does happen) but they are defacto auctions without a cap on tickets per person.  You enter tickets sold onto your spreadsheet and have an assigned value for your hunt and get a roi on a given hunt.  Of course late money is always an x-factor but will always favor those "in the know".  The lack of access or answers on multiple occasions cost conservation much needed revenue because of the inability to accurately gauge the probability and roi.