Hunting Washington Forum

Big Game Hunting => Elk Hunting => Topic started by: kentrek on April 18, 2013, 06:25:06 PM

Title: just for the bow guys (trends update)
Post by: kentrek on April 18, 2013, 06:25:06 PM: here are the odds and trends for some of the most wanted early bull tags

obviously if the trend is steadily less hunters than you can expect better odds for this years draws..if its sporadic than precise odds pretty much mean nothing since its hard to predict if more/less hunter will put in for the unit

hope this helps

feel free to post up the same type of info for other units & hunts..it would be nice to have one thread with as much info as possible for folks to give their best guess at which tag to draw
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: Mudman on April 18, 2013, 06:50:23 PM: Exactly why I dont play their game. Systems broken, I would rather buy lottery ticket. :twocents:
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: kentrek on April 18, 2013, 07:07:12 PM: Quote from: Mudman on April 18, 2013, 06:50:23 PM
Exactly why I dont play their game. Systems broken, I would rather buy lottery ticket. :twocents:

love it or hate it, it is what it is :tup:
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: BOWHUNTER45 on April 18, 2013, 07:07:24 PM: Alot of gamblers in America :dunno: :chuckle: :chuckle: :chuckle: Well maybe I should not complain to much ... I did not gamble long to get my quality bull tag but I have not applied since :chuckle: :chuckle:
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: pendoreilleadventures on April 18, 2013, 07:21:28 PM: kentrek would you be so kind as to share your excel formula? So we can do the odds on the units we want?
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: kentrek on April 18, 2013, 07:25:07 PM: [your points^2/((average points^2)*number of applicants)]*number of tags*100 = % odds

:tup:
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: D-Rock425 on April 18, 2013, 07:43:33 PM: So you saying I got a chance :IBCOOL:
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: kentrek on April 18, 2013, 07:55:12 PM: i need to say that these are actually the exact odds for what happened at last years draw, i was going to work up odds for this year but didn't feel like doing the trends of applicants throughout the years..but this should give you an idea if your thinking of moving up to a higher quality tag
Title: just for the bow guys
Post by: Dip-Zag on April 18, 2013, 08:13:14 PM: This is good work. I'd imagine that even if we trended with applicant volume for 5 years odds wouldn't change by 1 percentage point.
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: kentrek on April 18, 2013, 08:28:11 PM: Quote from: Dip-Zag on April 18, 2013, 08:13:14 PM
This is good work. I'd imagine that even if we trended with applicant volume for 5 years odds wouldn't change by 1 percentage point.

i was thinking the same but here is the 2012/2013 mud flow results... il check into this further and see if a can get some type of predictable trend
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: MLBowhunting on April 18, 2013, 10:17:49 PM: Wow
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: TommyH on April 18, 2013, 10:45:58 PM: :yeah: i dont gamble :chuckle:
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: bucklucky on April 18, 2013, 10:53:18 PM: So what you are saying is that special permits are terrible odds .... sweet ! I drew once with .06% odds. And another at 1.2% :chuckle:
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: couesbitten on April 19, 2013, 07:17:32 AM: Quote from: Mudman on April 18, 2013, 06:50:23 PM
I would rather buy lottery ticket.

And just like the lottery, you can't win if you don't buy a ticket.
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: throttlejocky20 on April 19, 2013, 08:10:32 AM: Having points help but I do believe its the luck of the draw. In 2010 I met a guy that drew a Margret archery bull tag with 2 points. I have drawn cow tags (margret-Toutle) within 2 years of the other. I know a guy that drew a moose tag with 8 points. If you dont put in you wont draw.
Title: just for the bow guys
Post by: iRem on April 19, 2013, 08:25:49 AM: I would agree that it's the Luck of the draw! I too have some friends and know a few guys that drew different tags with hardly any points and I can't even pull a tag when I have been putting in for years.
Title: just for the bow guys
Post by: Ridgerunner on April 21, 2013, 02:47:38 PM: With odds going down every year it is luck of the draw but it does happen I drew a moose tag and sheep in a three year period, of course it was year ten and twelve of applying........
Title: Re: just for the bow guys
Post by: BOWHUNTER45 on April 21, 2013, 03:08:52 PM: Quote from: bucklucky on April 18, 2013, 10:53:18 PM
So what you are saying is that special permits are terrible odds .... sweet ! I drew once with .06% odds. And another at 1.2% :chuckle:
Well ...quit turning in them poachers ;) :chuckle: :chuckle: :chuckle: :chuckle: :chuckle:
Title: Re: just for the bow guys (trends update)
Post by: kentrek on April 21, 2013, 03:52:45 PM: updated