Post by: idahohuntr on April 21, 2013, 08:26:18 AM
Post by: jackelope on April 21, 2013, 08:47:03 AM
Post by: cvandervort on April 21, 2013, 10:12:28 AM
KENTREK published the formula in a different post.
The formula is: [your points^2/((average points^2)*number of applicants)]*number of tags*100 = % odds
I created a spreadsheet that reads just like the regs, but has another column with this formula...makes me SERIOUSLY reconsider some of the hunts I was putting in for. (granted I only have a couple of points...)
PM me if you need more info.
Post by: adamR on April 21, 2013, 10:41:15 AM
Post by: Sawbuck on April 21, 2013, 10:49:36 AM
Post by: idahohuntr on April 21, 2013, 10:59:06 AM
How did you calculate them?
I use the HYPGEOMDIST function in excel and solve for 1 - odds of not drawing. It is very similar to how Bob33 described his methods in another thread. It requires you to input the number of tags (chances of success), your point total and the total number of applications.
Post by: Bob33 on April 21, 2013, 11:01:08 AM
Average points squared doesn't sound very accurate. Why not get the actual points per person that applied from the game dept and ill bet your numbers are even further rediculous.Average points can be accurately computed from the actual data. Using them will produce meaningful results. Quality Deer was 5.53 points in 2012.
Post by: Ridgerunner on April 28, 2013, 09:02:09 PM
Post by: bobcat on April 28, 2013, 09:19:55 PM
Post by: huntnnw on April 28, 2013, 09:36:45 PM
Post by: wilywin on May 14, 2013, 02:08:50 PM
Below I attached a PDF of draw odds by point total for each quality deer hunt offered in 2012. Each hunt is listed by hunt number and name (same order as in the 2012 regs).
Depressing...cept i noticed you had chewuch/perrygin as 1026-1027...its actually 1025-1026 (pg23)
I got my " LOSER " hat ready!
Post by: bobcat on May 14, 2013, 02:52:35 PM
Below I attached a PDF of draw odds by point total for each quality deer hunt offered in 2012. Each hunt is listed by hunt number and name (same order as in the 2012 regs).
Depressing...cept i noticed you had chewuch/perrygin as 1026-1027...its actually 1025-1026 (pg23)
I got my " LOSER " hat ready!
Th hunt numbers he has listed are the 2012 hunt numbers, since that is where all the data came from.
Post by: D-Rock425 on May 14, 2013, 02:55:00 PM
i see these and think blah blahme too.
Post by: bobcat on May 14, 2013, 02:59:13 PM
i see these and think blah blahme too.
Why, you guys can't face reality?
Post by: fishunt247 on May 19, 2013, 09:48:34 AM
Post by: bearpaw on May 19, 2013, 09:54:46 AM
Post by: Pathfinder101 on May 19, 2013, 10:07:13 AM
Yeah the odds definately aren't in anyones favor for drawing, thats for sure.
That's awfully cynical...
I think the odds are definitely in WDFW's favor. At $13 a pop, the house wins every time. All they have to do is creat a couple of new categories every few years and double the prices. We all play, regardless... :dunno:
Post by: Ridgeratt on May 19, 2013, 10:10:04 AM
Yeah the odds definately aren't in anyones favor for drawing, thats for sure.
That's awfully cynical...
I think the odds are definitely in WDFW's favor. At $13 a pop, the house wins every time. All they have to do is creat a couple of new categories every few years and double the prices. We all play, regardless... :dunno:
They are working on it as you speak!
"It's called a wolf tag"
Post by: idahohuntr on May 19, 2013, 11:57:52 AM
Thanks for doing this. Pretty interesting stuff. How do you get the information about average points for quality (or any category for that matter)? Really wish I would have looked at this prior to submitting my apps.
The WDFW website has previous years total applications (by point total) for each hunt...that is where I get the info for this stuff. Even if odds are low I do find this useful for submitting applications...it won't help you draw but it may help you decide on a unit/weapon etc.
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 19, 2013, 12:42:55 PM
Post by: washelkhunter on May 19, 2013, 12:52:29 PM
[/quote]
That's awfully cynical...
I think the odds are definitely in WDFW's favor. At $13 a pop, the house wins every time. All they have to do is creat a couple of new categories every few years and double the prices. We all play, regardless... :dunno:
[/quote]
I complained several times to the commissioners about this upcharge for a socalled quality permit. In my mind its not quality anything until you draw. It is nothing but socalled revenue enhancement scheme.
Post by: wilsongideon on May 19, 2013, 04:05:47 PM
Post by: matt345 on May 19, 2013, 04:13:00 PM
Post by: huntnnw on May 20, 2013, 02:36:25 AM
i see these and think blah blahme too.
Why, you guys can't face reality?
no its actually quite meaningless...I have drawn several tags...doesnt take a rocket scientist to look at available tags and applicants and see if they are bad or not.