Hunting Washington Forum

Big Game Hunting => Deer Hunting => Topic started by: idahohuntr on February 25, 2014, 08:10:39 AM

Title: 2013 Quality Deer and Buck Draw Odds
Post by: idahohuntr on February 25, 2014, 08:10:39 AM: Attached are draw odds for 2013 quality and buck deer by point total. Should be useful for understanding your chances in the 2014 draw if you care.
Title: Re: 2013 Quality Deer and Buck Draw Odds
Post by: Ridgerunner on February 25, 2014, 12:01:28 PM: Interesting info for sure.
Title: Re: 2013 Quality Deer and Buck Draw Odds
Post by: Whitehunter on March 03, 2014, 11:37:33 AM: My opinion on best chances in a quality deer hunt is mowing the area and deer movements during the season. I only apply in okanogan because I know it up there. If you have lots of time to spend in the woods scouting then yes the numbers shall help. I rather save my points
Title: Re: 2013 Quality Deer and Buck Draw Odds
Post by: hardrichard on March 17, 2014, 01:05:33 PM: Thanks for the Info. I have 14pts for what its worth :dunno: ive seen guys draw with 1pt and guys with 16 pts never get anything, will have to see right. So your saying there's a chance :chuckle: good luck to all. :tup:
Title: Re: 2013 Quality Deer and Buck Draw Odds
Post by: E-Town Hunter on March 17, 2014, 01:16:12 PM: Wow....those odds stink! Personally if a guy has been putting in for 10 years, I think he deserves to have more than a 1% chance for a "Quality" hunt. Hearing stories of others drawing these same coveted tags multiple times in the same 10 year span seems unjust. I know I know :cryriver:
Title: Re: 2013 Quality Deer and Buck Draw Odds
Post by: timberhunter on May 31, 2014, 10:56:34 PM: where did you find these odds? wdfw website?
Title: Re: 2013 Quality Deer and Buck Draw Odds
Post by: idahohuntr on May 31, 2014, 11:05:21 PM: I generated them myself based on applicants point totals and tag numbers from wdfw site. Because there are multiple hunt choices per applicant you actually can't get true odds...but these are pretty darn close.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 2013 Quality Deer and Buck Draw Odds
Post by: Bob33 on May 31, 2014, 11:16:24 PM: Quote from: Whitehunter on March 03, 2014, 11:37:33 AM
My opinion on best chances in a quality deer hunt is mowing the area...
If you say so.
Title: Re: 2013 Quality Deer and Buck Draw Odds
Post by: Romulus1297 on June 01, 2014, 12:43:15 AM: I drew 1. The only problem I had was he was a 28 inch 3 x 4 >:(
Title: Re: 2013 Quality Deer and Buck Draw Odds
Post by: timberhunter on June 21, 2014, 11:03:41 PM: i am curious the formula you used to figured them out. would you mind sharing?
Title: Re: 2013 Quality Deer and Buck Draw Odds
Post by: idahohuntr on June 22, 2014, 05:50:15 PM: In microsoft excel enter the following for the hunt you are interested in and the number of points you have:

=1-hypgeomdist(0,a,b,c)

where a = the number of "names in the hat" by point total. For example, if you have 2 pts, a = 4
b = number of permits for the specific hunt
c = all of the "names in the hat"...to get this multiply number of applications for each point total, and sum them. So if 100 people with 1 pt and 2 people with 2 pts apply, c = 104.

This will give you a decimal fraction...e.g., .4567 This number x100 is your percent odds of drawing.

One disclaimer, it is technically impossible to calculate true odds for WA because hunters can apply for multiple hunts and so odds could be slightly better than what you calculate using this method...however, they are very, very close and my observations are they have been pretty robust estimates.