Post by: time2hunt on May 16, 2016, 07:12:24 PM
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Post by: Skyvalhunter on May 16, 2016, 07:33:38 PM
Post by: Bob33 on May 16, 2016, 07:37:15 PM
You can get it from the source. ;)
Post by: Magnum_Willys on May 16, 2016, 07:54:33 PM
Post by: Bob33 on May 16, 2016, 08:08:45 PM
Shows why its more likely someone with one or two points will draw (7297 chances) vs one of the four with 21 points (1764 chances) :bash:That's right. "I knew someone who drew with one point!" is because there are so many of them, not because their individual odds are better.
Post by: WAcoueshunter on May 17, 2016, 03:26:13 PM
Total applicants: 23,861
Total numbers in the hat: 1,844,164
Total tags available: 107
So, if you had 20 points (400 numbers in the hat), your basic odds of being one of the top 107 numbers chosen would look like this: 1,844,164/400/107 = 43. I.e., 1:43.
Someone with 10 points would be 4x worse off with their 100 numbers in the hat, or 1,844,164/100/107 = 172, i.e., 1:172.
You can increase your odds from there by putting down Hangman or Parker or one of the other "easier" to draw odds, because it is likely that there are still Hangman tags left once we get to number 107 in the draw. Conversely, you'd probably be worse off if you only put down one choice and it was 49DN or Huckleberry. Also, the average applicant only applies for 2.6 hunt choices out of a possible 4, so that will impact the draw odds somewhat as well.
Post by: RadSav on May 17, 2016, 04:13:22 PM
It's nice when I find out that there are bigger losers in this world than me!! Gives me hope! :chuckle: :chuckle:
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 18, 2016, 12:31:06 PM
Post by: carlyoungs on May 18, 2016, 12:35:30 PM
Post by: Bob33 on May 18, 2016, 12:40:42 PM
What amazes me is with the odds being so low how many guys are jumping into the points game each year.Hope springs eternal; it's only after 20 years of not being drawn that many start to get skeptical.
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 18, 2016, 12:56:38 PM
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Post by: Whitenuckles on May 19, 2016, 06:46:06 PM
Post by: LabChamp on May 19, 2016, 07:04:33 PM
Cheap way to dream big too. (https://hunting-washington.com/smf/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fuploads.tapatalk-cdn.com%2F20160518%2F2a99026fd6510bdc25f0146915e1d2db.jpg&hash=71ba5743b85982a919da7631190973d857c3e77b)
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STUD
Post by: fishngamereaper on May 19, 2016, 07:07:45 PM
Cheap way to dream big too. (https://hunting-washington.com/smf/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fuploads.tapatalk-cdn.com%2F20160518%2F2a99026fd6510bdc25f0146915e1d2db.jpg&hash=71ba5743b85982a919da7631190973d857c3e77b)
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Your mean....
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on May 19, 2016, 07:18:30 PM
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Post by: shanevg on May 20, 2016, 10:20:00 AM
Haha my dad is in that top point category on both moose and mountain goat. I don't know what to think of that. Maybe I should plan some time off to join him on a hunt this fall. Then again the odds are probably still against him drawing.
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Odds are probably still less than 1% for goat and less than 2% for moose even with max points. Plus they are going down every year as we continue to water down the pot by squaring so many peoples points. We really need to change our OIL permit system. :bash:
Post by: Buckblaster on June 22, 2016, 12:40:17 PM
Post by: lhrbull on June 22, 2016, 05:25:02 PM
Post by: WAcoueshunter on June 23, 2016, 09:41:57 AM
Those points are for 2015, when I had 20 points for Any Ram and for Any Moose, and there is still no guarantee that I will ever draw. That's why I put in for Wyoming moose for 15 years, at least I knew I would draw eventually with preference points, and now I have a freezer full of moose meat.
You were smart to get in at the beginning. Those of us that waited in WY (I've got about 9), are now stuck behind all those preference point tags. Point creep is almost 1 point per year, I may never catch up.
Post by: trophyhunt on June 23, 2016, 10:26:44 AM
yup, I missed one dang year and my odds are way different than if I had max points. Stupid me spaced out one year!Those points are for 2015, when I had 20 points for Any Ram and for Any Moose, and there is still no guarantee that I will ever draw. That's why I put in for Wyoming moose for 15 years, at least I knew I would draw eventually with preference points, and now I have a freezer full of moose meat.
You were smart to get in at the beginning. Those of us that waited in WY (I've got about 9), are now stuck behind all those preference point tags. Point creep is almost 1 point per year, I may never catch up.
Post by: Katmai Guy on June 23, 2016, 08:56:59 PM