Post by: jamesfromseattle on October 12, 2016, 02:04:12 PM
My thoughts are that the wind is probably going to keep the deer holding pretty tight. Textbook says that Monday will be the day to be out there because it will be the first calm day in a while...unfortunately Monday is a Monday.
Post by: rickomatic on October 12, 2016, 02:13:17 PM
Post by: PolarBear on October 12, 2016, 02:14:03 PM
Post by: bobcat on October 12, 2016, 02:16:23 PM
Post by: Mudman on October 12, 2016, 02:19:12 PM
My daughter and I will be hunting right in the thick of it and not from the truck.Wise man!!
Post by: jamesfromseattle on October 12, 2016, 02:25:10 PM
What are the wind forecasts for the east side and higher elevations? I see rain in the Methow, but haven't seen the wind forecast.
The wind forecast for the mountains and east side doesn't actually look that bad--up to around 15 mph. Looks like it could be substantially stronger than that if the storm turns east, though. Wind and rain could be historically strong on the westside, though.
Only got a couple days to hunt and was planning on hitting a spot in the north sound but that seems like an unpleasant idea. Considering crossing the mountains and exploring a new spot if it isn't too bad over there.
Post by: JDHasty on October 12, 2016, 02:28:30 PM
Looks like the weather may be pretty nasty for the modern firearm opener this weekend. Curious to know how this will affect people's strategies.
My thoughts are that the wind is probably going to keep the deer holding pretty tight. Textbook says that Monday will be the day to be out there because it will be the first calm day in a while...unfortunately Monday is a Monday.
From: NWS Seattle - NOAA Service Account
Sent: Tuesday, October 11, 2016 1:07:17 PM (UTC-08:00) Pacific Time (US & Canada)
Subject: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: Very Significant Weather Expected to Affect the Region Wednesday Night Through This Weekend.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION: Very Significant Weather Expected to Affect the Region Wednesday Night Through This Weekend
Hello,
This message is intended as an informational briefing for public safety decision makers. We ask that you continue to monitor latest information using the resources listed below. You are welcome to share this message with others in your organization. Please do not respond to this email. If you need to contact the office, please use the links and information below.
SYNOPSIS:
A series of early season - strong Pacific storm systems - will affect the region Wednesday night through the weekend. These systems have the potential to bring very strong winds and heavy rainfall to Western Washington, as well as high seas to area waters, especially the coastal waters of Washington. The second system, that will affect the area Saturday and Sunday looks to be the stronger of the two.
HEADLINES:
Flood watch for Mason County for Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon .
FORECAST SPECIFICS:
The first of two strong Pacific storm systems will likely begin to affect the area Wednesday evening as rain begins to spread into the region. Models continue to show the potential for up 1 to 2 inches of rain over the lowlands and 2 to 4 inches in the mountains. Heavier accumulations of 5 or more inches are possible especially along the south facing slopes of the Olympic mountains Wednesday night through Thursday. Snow levels will remain high, above 7000 feet during the heaviest rainfall Wednesday evening and Thursday, lowering to 5000 to 6000 ft on Friday.
Models are also highlighting the potential for a deep surface low tracking northeast onto the North Washington Coast late Thursday/Thursday night followed by a second weaker low during the day on Friday. This will result in the potential for very strong winds especially along the coast and in the north interior. The exact timing, location and strength of significant winds will depend on the track and strength of the surface low which is not certain at this time.
A second, potentially stronger Pacific storm system will affect the region on Saturday and Sunday. Models continue to show a very deep surface low tracking into the area that may bring heavier precipitation and even stronger winds than Thursday's system. In addition to rainfall and winds, this system will also bring seas greater than 30 feet to the coastal waters of Washington and the potential for significant coastal flooding. The details regarding the nature of the impacts of this storm, including the specific timing, location, strength and type of hazards, are dependent upon the track and strength of the surface low, which is not certain at this time.
IMPACTS:
These storm systems have the potential to bring a wide range of potentially significant impacts to the region.
Heavy rain is possible, with rises on area rivers and the potential for flooding.
High winds are possible especially along the coast and the north interior. Impacts relative to strong winds such as widespread power outages and tree damage are possible.
High seas are possible, up to 20 to 25 feet Thursday night into Friday morning and even higher Saturday and Sunday with seas 30 feet or higher.
High seas, combined with other storm effects and tides may produce storm surge flooding along coastal areas of Washington.
CONFIDENCE:
Confidence is moderate to high that one or more strong Pacific storm systems will affect the area beginning Wednesday evening through the weekend.
In addition, confidence is moderate to high that these storm systems will produce a wide range of potentially significant impacts.
Confidence in the specific timing, location and magnitude of impacts is low at this time.
Web Site: http://www.weather.gov/seattle
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Seattle.gov
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSseattle
Thank you,
National Weather Service, Seattle WA
Post by: Sumpnneedskillin on October 12, 2016, 02:29:37 PM
What are the wind forecasts for the east side and higher elevations? I see rain in the Methow, but haven't seen the wind forecast.From NWS Spokane
Post by: bobcat on October 12, 2016, 02:38:01 PM
Quote
Starting Thursday, we will enter a period of extraordinarily active weather with the potential for heavy rain, flooding, and a highly dangerous windstorm with the potential to be an historic event. The coastal waters and shoreline areas could well experience hurricane-force gusts, with a lesser but serious threat for strong winds over the interior. Keep in mind that there is still uncertainty in the forecasts, more so for the wind than the rain.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/10/warming-major-storms-threaten-pacific.html?m=1
Post by: Sumpnneedskillin on October 12, 2016, 02:41:45 PM
ORZ044-WAZ028-029-131200-
/O.NEW.KPDT.WI.Y.0026.161014T1700Z-161015T0100Z/
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOARDMAN...HERMISTON...IONE...CONNELL...
PROSSER...TRI-CITIES...DAYTON...WAITSBURG...WALLA WALLA
218 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2016
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM PDT FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PENDLETON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM PDT FRIDAY.
* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE BY 10 AM FRIDAY AND BECOME VERY
WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS...INCLUDING CONSTRUCTION
MATERIAL...OUTDOOR FURNITURE...GARBAGE CANS AND HALLOWEEN
DECORATIONS...MAY TUMBLE OVER OR SUDDENLY BECOME AIRBORNE. SMALL
TREES LADEN WITH WET LEAVES MAY BE UPROOTED BY THE WIND GUSTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.
Post by: Timberstalker on October 12, 2016, 02:49:06 PM
Post by: Fl0und3rz on October 12, 2016, 02:57:54 PM
Post by: fishngamereaper on October 12, 2016, 03:07:16 PM
Post by: DaveMonti on October 12, 2016, 03:10:29 PM
Post by: NoBark on October 12, 2016, 03:18:19 PM
Post by: jamesfromseattle on October 12, 2016, 03:33:29 PM
Post by: boneaddict on October 12, 2016, 03:46:27 PM
Post by: wsmnut on October 12, 2016, 04:43:47 PM
I'm pulling the trigger on plan "B". That will likely be all I'll pull the trigger on...
Post by: Naches Sportsman on October 12, 2016, 04:46:02 PM
Post by: 3nails on October 12, 2016, 04:54:46 PM
I don't know about anyone else, but I'm hunting on Saturday, not Friday, which the previous few wind forecasts are for. I think the wind is supposed to ease up on Saturday, although it will be rainy. Get out and hunt!Some of the reports I am seeing say that Saturdays wind storm will be the worst. Possibly the biggest ever to hit the N.W. Even bigger than the Columbus Day storm of 1962.
Post by: bobcat on October 12, 2016, 04:56:13 PM
I don't know about anyone else, but I'm hunting on Saturday, not Friday, which the previous few wind forecasts are for. I think the wind is supposed to ease up on Saturday, although it will be rainy. Get out and hunt!Some of the reports I am seeing say that Saturdays wind storm will be the worst. Possibly the biggest ever to hit the N.W. Even bigger than the Columbus Day storm of 1962.
:yeah:
Post by: JimmyHoffa on October 12, 2016, 05:03:12 PM
If it gets even close to that, I think they'll be closing down some of the bridges.I don't know about anyone else, but I'm hunting on Saturday, not Friday, which the previous few wind forecasts are for. I think the wind is supposed to ease up on Saturday, although it will be rainy. Get out and hunt!Some of the reports I am seeing say that Saturdays wind storm will be the worst. Possibly the biggest ever to hit the N.W. Even bigger than the Columbus Day storm of 1962.
:yeah:
Post by: SteelheadTed on October 12, 2016, 05:54:34 PM
I don't know about anyone else, but I'm hunting on Saturday, not Friday, which the previous few wind forecasts are for. I think the wind is supposed to ease up on Saturday, although it will be rainy. Get out and hunt!
There are two storms, one Thursday and one Saturday, on the west side of the state. The link to Cliff Mass's blog explains the two potential for two storms. Saturday's storm is the worst of the two. In those kind of winds you won't find me in the woods, no deer is worth that.
Post by: 257wbymagkiller on October 12, 2016, 06:00:45 PM
Post by: Timberstalker on October 12, 2016, 06:03:09 PM
If the cold weather stays around, we could see feet of snow instead of inches of rain. It was in the upper 30's all day where I was.
The latest forecast I saw showed snow at 9-10k feet.
The majority of areas where hunters will be are gonna see rain.
Post by: rtspring on October 12, 2016, 06:26:10 PM
If the cold weather stays around, we could see feet of snow instead of inches of rain. It was in the upper 30's all day where I was.
The latest forecast I saw showed snow at 9-10k feet.
The majority of areas where hunters will be are gonna see rain.
Im seeing 5000-5500 starting sunday.
Post by: justyhntr on October 12, 2016, 06:28:12 PM
*ALERT*
As fire season ends, storm season is beginning.
Please be cautious and aware of your surroundings and current weather conditions. If Hancock Forest Management deems conditions are not safe for recreation, we will close the forest as we do during fire season. Always check our website and phone line for updates before making your visit to the property
Post by: coachcw on October 12, 2016, 06:40:44 PM
Post by: Timberstalker on October 12, 2016, 06:47:41 PM
Matter of fact you are correct. That'll make things perfect!If the cold weather stays around, we could see feet of snow instead of inches of rain. It was in the upper 30's all day where I was.
The latest forecast I saw showed snow at 9-10k feet.
The majority of areas where hunters will be are gonna see rain.
Im seeing 5000-5500 starting sunday.
Post by: horsehunter509 on October 12, 2016, 06:50:34 PM
Post by: JDHasty on October 12, 2016, 07:27:12 PM
We were getting a extra plow truck ready at work today. Supposed to be getting snow on Washington pass tonight and tomorrow. Was 24 degrees this morning in winthrop.
We had thick ice this morning on the windshield of our vehicle parked at the Tukwila Sounder Station. I have been choking the stove at night here in Tacoma, I think I am going to give it some air tonight and check it when I get up at my normal 03:00 to see a man about a horse.
Post by: fishngamereaper on October 12, 2016, 07:35:27 PM
I was headed to the high country with my wife. Not going to do that now. I think it's too risky especially with her along. Not too excited about killing anything anyway. I'm a little worried what this will do with the remaining of the herd.
Not a good scenario at all. High country snow during modern season. Migratory bucks moving into the slaughter zone. I agree that if this plays out, combined with last years high harvest rates, this could have a huge impact on the future of the herd.
Post by: NOCK NOCK on October 12, 2016, 08:07:15 PM
Be careful out there all.
Post by: SteelheadTed on October 12, 2016, 08:29:49 PM
I just can't imagine not going hunting because of weather . it's too nice no wait it's too rainy ....just hunt .
Good luck with that.
Post by: hollymaster on October 12, 2016, 09:07:48 PM
Best time to hunt blacktails is in the wind and rain on the wet side. :twocents:I just can't imagine not going hunting because of weather . it's too nice no wait it's too rainy ....just hunt .
Good luck with that.
Post by: JimmyHoffa on October 12, 2016, 09:16:03 PM
Reprod and shielded cuts.I just can't imagine not going hunting because of weather . it's too nice no wait it's too rainy ....just hunt .
Good luck with that.
Post by: JakeLand on October 12, 2016, 10:13:22 PM
Post by: Sakko300wsm on October 13, 2016, 05:08:03 AM
Post by: Molon5labe on October 13, 2016, 05:40:15 AM
Post by: kodiak 907 on October 13, 2016, 06:12:36 AM
Post by: Odell on October 13, 2016, 06:26:08 AM
Post by: JDHasty on October 13, 2016, 08:22:12 AM
Post by: splitshot on October 13, 2016, 09:58:46 AM
Post by: hunter_sean08 on October 13, 2016, 10:04:33 AM
Post by: singleshot12 on October 13, 2016, 10:19:48 AM
Post by: kukusya on October 13, 2016, 10:26:32 AM
Hype! Hype! Hype! It' all hype to mess with your plans so you'll go out and buy groceries and batteries instead :chuckle: Go hunting it could be the best opener we've had in over ten years.
shh. Dont tell anyone.
I change my plans from E to W Washington hunting when I read weather report.
Post by: singleshot12 on October 13, 2016, 10:31:34 AM
Post by: bronczilla on October 13, 2016, 10:35:16 AM
Post by: kukusya on October 13, 2016, 10:35:35 AM
The East side will be better opening weekend :twocents:Maybe, but I din't hunt W side for couple of years. plus it give me chance take my older son with me with out missing school on Monday.
Post by: singleshot12 on October 13, 2016, 10:40:29 AM
The East side will be better opening weekend :twocents:Maybe, but I din't hunt W side for couple of years. plus it give me chance take my older son with me with out missing school on Monday.
There you go :tup: Just play it by ear! Good luck to you and your boy
Post by: Old Man Yager on October 13, 2016, 10:42:54 AM
On Hancock's webpage
*ALERT*
As fire season ends, storm season is beginning.
Please be cautious and aware of your surroundings and current weather conditions. If Hancock Forest Management deems conditions are not safe for recreation, we will close the forest as we do during fire season. Always check our website and phone line for updates before making your visit to the property. Maybe I better sneak I better sneak in there Friday afternoon and sleep in the truck so I can be in already if they close it down!!😆😆
Post by: WSU on October 13, 2016, 10:47:14 AM
Post by: Fl0und3rz on October 13, 2016, 11:46:40 AM
You might be good for at least 48 hours of power outage, especially if it is cold outside, but I might worry about pipes freezing, if it is too cold.
Post by: finnman on October 13, 2016, 12:07:57 PM
I will personally be setting up my wall tent tomorrow in 20-30 mph winds, no trees around just grass, should be a blast!!! :chuckle: Muledeer hunting in open country with rain and high wind will be interesting!!
Post by: JDHasty on October 13, 2016, 12:09:18 PM
If your a real blacktail hunter then you will be out on Saturday!! This is the best weather for hunting those little brush rats!! :tup:
I will personally be setting up my wall tent tomorrow in 20-30 mph winds, no trees around just grass, should be a blast!!! :chuckle: Muledeer hunting in open country with rain and high wind will be interesting!!
That's what I'm talkin' bout
Post by: npaull on October 13, 2016, 12:11:43 PM
Post by: Humptulips on October 13, 2016, 12:15:41 PM
Post by: WSU on October 13, 2016, 12:41:27 PM
Post by: fishnfur on October 13, 2016, 12:44:36 PM
I for sure will be deer hunting. Sounds perfect to me. Clam digging in the evening however is canceled.
35 foot surf sound like a bit too much? Sneaker waves probably to 40 or so - and in the dark! I'm all in! Watch out bivalves - here I come!
Post by: JDHasty on October 13, 2016, 12:52:31 PM
Post by: Thefishguy77 on October 13, 2016, 12:52:46 PM
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: heronblu on October 13, 2016, 12:53:55 PM
Post by: Moe the Sleaze on October 13, 2016, 02:49:05 PM
Post by: meathunter on October 13, 2016, 02:55:22 PM
Post by: BGLEMIN on October 13, 2016, 03:14:12 PM
Post by: Thefishguy77 on October 13, 2016, 03:29:28 PM
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: JDHasty on October 13, 2016, 03:55:04 PM
This season will be my first at hunting blacktail with a rifle. I had originally asked for time off to hunt the 26th-30th. But the blacktail aficionados have claimed this weather to be the golden egg, so I changed plans and don't have to be back at work until Wednesday morning. Can't wait for some blacktail madness!!!
Hope it works out for ya! A lot of people prefer first light or mid day and I'm contrary, I prefer last light. We seem to disagree over quite a bit, but most of the people I know who are serious like what we see coming weather wise.
I'm trying to think of a time when this kind of weather has not been good to us.... and I can't thing of one.
Post by: fishnfur on October 13, 2016, 04:10:51 PM
Post by: JDHasty on October 13, 2016, 04:15:28 PM
Not only should hunting be good, there should be lots of free firewood sources over the next several days too! Residential neighborhoods are firewood heaven after a big storm.
I still have Oak and Madrona stashed around from last year's wind storm.
I told people I would be happy to clean it up, but I could only do so if I could stack it and tarp it until I have room to bring it home. I wouldn't even bother with anything less than Oak, Maple or Madrona and let other people get it.
Post by: 3nails on October 13, 2016, 04:16:24 PM
Post by: fishnfur on October 13, 2016, 04:20:30 PM
Post by: JimmyHoffa on October 13, 2016, 04:23:46 PM
I must be the only blacktail hunter who prefers cold, clear days.Those are good too. When it has been cold and stormy for a few days, then a cold clear day with some good sun. They're out soaking it up.
Post by: 3nails on October 13, 2016, 04:24:16 PM
crunch, crunch, crunch..... I'm sorry. I didn't hear you. I was walking stealthily on the frozen ground on this beautiful, clear, cold day. Dang, I wonder where the deer all went?Maybe that's why I can never find any.....
Post by: Jonathan_S on October 13, 2016, 04:27:35 PM
crunch, crunch, crunch..... I'm sorry. I didn't hear you. I was walking stealthily on the frozen ground on this beautiful, clear, cold day. Dang, I wonder where the deer all went?
All the deer went on 3nails' wall. The dude kills some studs!
Post by: bankwalker on October 13, 2016, 04:39:09 PM
I must be the only blacktail hunter who prefers cold, clear days.
Oh I love cold clear days. Find myself some steep clear cuts and deer soaking up the sun.
Post by: Ghunt on October 13, 2016, 04:58:13 PM
Post by: Mfowl on October 13, 2016, 05:10:58 PM
I'm having trouble with the opener. This is my first time going blacktail hunting, actually first time going hunting at all. I can't seem to convince my dad that this bad weather is great for Blacktail hunting. He's mainly concerned about the fog up high and we won't be able to see anything. I almost just want to tell him to drive me up there and sleep in the truck while I go out and get one. Can any of you guys think of anything to convince him to go out this weekend?
It's opening day!
Post by: Ghunt on October 13, 2016, 05:14:02 PM
I'm having trouble with the opener. This is my first time going blacktail hunting, actually first time going hunting at all. I can't seem to convince my dad that this bad weather is great for Blacktail hunting. He's mainly concerned about the fog up high and we won't be able to see anything. I almost just want to tell him to drive me up there and sleep in the truck while I go out and get one. Can any of you guys think of anything to convince him to go out this weekend?
It's opening day!
YEAH I KNOW! But that doesn't matter to him...
Post by: Fl0und3rz on October 13, 2016, 05:33:19 PM
Post by: JakeLand on October 13, 2016, 05:37:27 PM
Post by: fishnfur on October 13, 2016, 07:05:43 PM
Dad - grow a set! :chuckle: Just kidding. Next weekend will likely be a little better weather. Sunday looks OK too.
Post by: Timberstalker on October 13, 2016, 07:24:16 PM
Just put RAIN/X on your scope lenses and your binocular lenses
Holy Moly. That's some serious rain. We get a couple of hours of rain over here and it's a big deal. Wow.
Post by: coachcw on October 13, 2016, 08:22:19 PM
Post by: lamrith on October 13, 2016, 08:23:05 PM
Post by: bobdog86 on October 13, 2016, 08:27:29 PM
Post by: MLhunter1 on October 13, 2016, 08:40:51 PM
Post by: jmscon on October 13, 2016, 08:41:30 PM
Post by: 3nails on October 13, 2016, 08:51:41 PM
I need to be enlightened. Why is the windy crappy weather so good for blacktail hunting?The noise masks the crunch crunch crunch of cruddy hunters. :chuckle:
Post by: finnman on October 13, 2016, 09:09:42 PM
I need to be enlightened. Why is the windy crappy weather so good for blacktail hunting?If it's like that it basically hides all your mistakes! It covers your noise, your scent, your movement, it's all hidden by the weather when still hunting timber or edges. Wind and rain are your friends when hunting BT! Especially at the end of October when the bucks are moving more and more leaves are off the alders and maples!
Post by: JDHasty on October 13, 2016, 09:38:43 PM
I need to be enlightened. Why is the windy crappy weather so good for blacktail hunting?
I think they like to top off before going to ground to sit it out. In my case I am going to be watching their favorite apple trees as the storm builds.
Post by: highhunter on October 13, 2016, 10:33:52 PM
Post by: jagermiester on October 13, 2016, 10:42:26 PM
Post by: JimmyHoffa on October 13, 2016, 10:49:18 PM
Post by: jagermiester on October 13, 2016, 11:11:18 PM
Post by: jhawk13 on October 13, 2016, 11:14:49 PM
Stop watching the news. It's all for ratings. Let's kill some deer.
haha amen to that!
Post by: jackelope on October 13, 2016, 11:14:58 PM
I need to be enlightened. Why is the windy crappy weather so good for blacktail hunting?If it's like that it basically hides all your mistakes! It covers your noise, your scent, your movement, it's all hidden by the weather when still hunting timber or edges. Wind and rain are your friends when hunting BT! Especially at the end of October when the bucks are moving more and more leaves are off the alders and maples!
What about when your shot opportunity is 100 yards out and the wind is blowing left to right 40mph?
Post by: highhunter on October 13, 2016, 11:20:06 PM
Post by: fish vacuum on October 14, 2016, 12:31:48 AM
I need to be enlightened. Why is the windy crappy weather so good for blacktail hunting?They can't hear or smell as well in a wind storm. And if branches or trees are falling, they get moving.
Post by: 257wbymagkiller on October 14, 2016, 12:43:22 AM
Post by: bobcat on October 14, 2016, 03:53:10 AM
Quote
Most of you are probably more interested in windstorms...so lets consider that now. Right now it appears that the late Thursday/Friday morning event will not be a severe one. One problem for that storm is that we are really working with an initially amorphous, almost double system, rather than a consolidated single strong system.
Quote
By Friday afternoon, a more consolidated low passes to our north and a large pressure gradient develops over western WA. As a result, it will get windy during Friday afternoon, with sustained winds reaching 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph over Puget Sound, stronger over the coast and NW WA. Some power outages, but nothing catastrophic.
Quote
But now, lets talk about what you REALLY want to know about. The Saturday storm, which potentially can be much stronger, representing the remnants of Typhoon Songda. The confidence in earlier forecasts were lessened by the different solutions of the US model (GFS) and the vaunted European (ECMWF) model--a classic situation for forecasts. The GFS was going for a historic storm with a central pressure in the 950s mb that hit Vancouver Island, while the ECMWF solution was weaker (960s) and farther south (passing over Seattle!).
Well, the new US runs have now shifted to a compromise solution, halfway to the ECMWF track and weaker, but still a remarkably intense storm for our region. And the storm is a bit later.
Quote
Two things. This track is the perfect track of strong winds over Puget Sound. Second, the worst windstorms are rapidly intensifying as the make landfall...like this storm.
The wind forecast map (for sustained winds) at 11 PM Saturday suggest sustained winds of 25-35 mph, with gusts of 35-65 mph over Puget Sound.
Quote
Bottom line: the Saturday storm is the big windstorm threat and has the potential to be one of the strongest windstorms we have seen in a few years. There is still uncertainty in the forecast but it is far less than earlier.
Keep in mind what we are trying to do...forecast the exact track and intensity of a storm that is now thousands of miles away and currently very weak. If our track if off by 100 miles, the forecast is radically changed at nearly all locations. It is amazing we can even attempt to do this. So we still have to watch this system very carefully and update the forecast as we get close.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/10/storm-update.html?m=1
Post by: coachcw on October 14, 2016, 05:35:17 AM
When I shot a ram a couple years ago it was blowing 40-60 mph nd was 300 yards . my mind wouldn't let me hold for more than a 20 mph wind I hit him just a bit back but it was one hell of a wind hold for sure . my rule was don't leave the animal on the first shot , typically they wont know where its coming from .I need to be enlightened. Why is the windy crappy weather so good for blacktail hunting?If it's like that it basically hides all your mistakes! It covers your noise, your scent, your movement, it's all hidden by the weather when still hunting timber or edges. Wind and rain are your friends when hunting BT! Especially at the end of October when the bucks are moving more and more leaves are off the alders and maples!
What about when your shot opportunity is 100 yards out and the wind is blowing left to right 40mph?
Post by: fishnfur on October 14, 2016, 09:22:04 AM
I need to be enlightened. Why is the windy crappy weather so good for blacktail hunting?
The deer's normal protection comes from (in decreasing order): Nose, ears, eyes. A big storm completely destroys a deer's ability to smell and hear predators. Many times, when the conditions are extreme, the deer takes a defensive posture by using its only remaining sense that still works - eyes. They are known to stand up in an area where they can see predators from far enough to feel safe, put their asses toward the wind in an attempt to smell a predator from behind, and ride out the worst of the storm in this position. Alternatively, they head for reprod to hunker down or towards a known area where the winds will be more calm. Put a hunter in the woods while this is going on - instead of trying to find bucks bedded invisibly in some hole, you find bucks standing up in clearings, leaving the timber headed into reprod to hunker down, or up and moving to some calmer place than where they currently are. Boom! Successful hunt in stormy weather.
Post by: fishnfur on October 14, 2016, 09:32:12 AM
Post by: coachcw on October 14, 2016, 12:14:33 PM
Post by: cavemann on October 14, 2016, 12:29:55 PM
Post by: Goldeneye on October 14, 2016, 01:50:50 PM
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=47.66;-122.57;8&l=gust
Post by: lamrith on October 14, 2016, 03:20:39 PM
In case you wanted to see real time weather. Here's an interesting site. Zoom into your area of interest. Pretty breezy out there right now...Cool visual.. Buuut, gotta call shenanigans. says 45mph in Puyallup and it is not even 5mph outside..
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=47.66;-122.57;8&l=gust
Post by: yakimarcher on October 14, 2016, 03:48:42 PM
In case you wanted to see real time weather. Here's an interesting site. Zoom into your area of interest. Pretty breezy out there right now...Cool visual.. Buuut, gotta call shenanigans. says 45mph in Puyallup and it is not even 5mph outside..
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=47.66;-122.57;8&l=gust
Agreed, it's saying 30 in Yakima, and were having a stiff breeze for sure, but not 30!
Post by: westside103147 on October 14, 2016, 03:52:22 PM
Post by: Naches Sportsman on October 14, 2016, 04:01:06 PM
Post by: bobcat on October 14, 2016, 04:13:41 PM
Post by: yakimarcher on October 14, 2016, 04:29:28 PM
Blowing 35+ and unable to make it to my destination. Even with chains :yike:Dang!!!!! better find my chains!!!
Post by: fishnfur on October 14, 2016, 04:47:43 PM
Blowing 35+ and unable to make it to my destination. Even with chains :yike:Dang!!!!! better find my chains!!!
Mmmmm, nice warm couch, football, nachos and beer. I love hunting season!
Post by: Naches Sportsman on October 14, 2016, 05:42:54 PM
What's the elevation there?
Snowing from 4700' on up
Post by: fishnfur on October 14, 2016, 05:57:43 PM
Post by: fishnfur on October 15, 2016, 12:12:03 AM
I've officially cancelled for tomorrow, which doesn't upset me terribly since I've been out many times already with my MS tag, but somehow I was excited at the prospect of sitting in pouring rain and glassing reprod for freaked out deer. Better safe than sorry, or as Shakespeare wrote: Discretion is the better part of valor.
Good luck all! Shoot straight.
Post by: JimmyHoffa on October 15, 2016, 07:23:26 AM
But it sounds like the duck hunters are having a pretty good time this morning.
Post by: Axle on October 15, 2016, 07:54:40 AM
Getting meat before a wind storm might be a :bdid: Then again, I could can all the meat......I'm still thinking on this one....
Post by: bobcat on October 15, 2016, 08:20:06 AM
Post by: pianoman9701 on October 15, 2016, 08:34:17 AM
I'm planning on going out for a bit but if there's going to be power outages, I don't know that I want raw meat sitting around. Power outages in some areas can last many days. At that point, it's a scramble to keep what's already in the freezer.
Getting meat before a wind storm might be a :bdid: Then again, I could can all the meat......I'm still thinking on this one....
Be careful. You don't always hear those falling branches and trees.
Post by: HUNTINCOUPLE on October 15, 2016, 09:27:30 AM
Blowing 35+ and unable to make it to my destination. Even with chains :yike:Dang!!!!! better find my chains!!!
Mmmmm, nice warm couch, football, nachos and beer. I love hunting season!
Don't have a couch. Don't have a TV. Do have Beer and the old lady can whip up some awesome nachos!! You talked me into it! Oh ya hunting from the house blind has been good this mourning! :chuckle:n
Post by: splitshot on October 15, 2016, 10:56:12 AM
Post by: trophyhunt on October 15, 2016, 11:29:41 AM
Post by: lokidog on October 15, 2016, 11:50:42 AM
Weathergirl is all excited about 80 mph gusts, quite the change from when we first moved out here and the Hanukkah eve storm rolled through ten years ago.... :chuckle:
Post by: fishnfur on October 15, 2016, 12:46:31 PM
1245 - Gusts/breezes are getting a lot more serious, and worse, the lights just flickered. :yike: Looking forward to seeing that Wazzu game tonight (vs. hearing about it).
Post by: Bullkllr on October 15, 2016, 01:33:44 PM
Post by: lokidog on October 15, 2016, 02:47:39 PM
Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
Post by: 257wbymagkiller on October 15, 2016, 03:16:48 PM
Post by: kukusya on October 15, 2016, 03:36:33 PM
Note to everyone:
If you have BDC reticle scope please research how it works.
Post by: Thefishguy77 on October 15, 2016, 03:43:13 PM
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: jmscon on October 15, 2016, 03:46:50 PM
Post by: fishngamereaper on October 15, 2016, 03:51:51 PM
Post by: HUNTINCOUPLE on October 15, 2016, 04:01:12 PM
Post by: lamrith on October 15, 2016, 04:06:18 PM
Post by: fishngamereaper on October 15, 2016, 04:07:36 PM
check this out. pretty cool shows what and where. still looks strong.
Zoom in on WA.
Post by: trophyhunt on October 15, 2016, 04:08:27 PM
Careful now...let's not jinx it. Looking at NOAA's live weather stations there are gusts 60-70 on the coast right now and moving this way.i sure hope your right, this is a huge disappointment right now!
Post by: Fl0und3rz on October 15, 2016, 04:09:07 PM
Post by: jmscon on October 15, 2016, 04:48:01 PM
Post by: haus on October 15, 2016, 05:10:53 PM
Post by: AKBowman on October 15, 2016, 09:22:49 PM
Post by: kukusya on October 16, 2016, 04:40:34 AM
Post by: JimmyHoffa on October 16, 2016, 07:13:13 AM
I think they blew this one out of proportion. Windy on the ridge this pm but gusted to half of what they predicted. Hopefully see some deer movement in the amIt's going to be like the boy who cried wolf. When a big storm does finally show up, a bunch of people are going to get trapped in the woods or on the beaches or something.
Post by: JDHasty on October 16, 2016, 11:05:39 AM
My opinion is this was a bush league Al Capone's Vault. It was nothing but hype.
Post by: MtnMuley on October 16, 2016, 12:42:43 PM
These are the same Global Warming meatheads and if this proves anything it is that if they do know what the weather will be tomorrow, you simply cannot trust them. I don't know if they deliberately pulled this crap for ratings and to sell advertising, or if they just blew it.
My opinion is this was a bush league Al Capone's Vault. It was nothing but hype.
If they predict a big storm and it doesn't happen, people bitch. If they don't give stern warnings and predict a big storm and it happens, people bitch. Some of you are comical. I'm just thankful that my friends on the wetside didn't have to deal with a big mess. :twocents:
Post by: huntnphool on October 16, 2016, 12:47:18 PM
These are the same Global Warming meatheads and if this proves anything it is that if they do know what the weather will be tomorrow, you simply cannot trust them. I don't know if they deliberately pulled this crap for ratings and to sell advertising, or if they just blew it.
My opinion is this was a bush league Al Capone's Vault. It was nothing but hype.
If they predict a big storm and it doesn't happen, people bitch. If they don't give stern warnings and predict a big storm and it happens, people bitch. Some of you are comical. I'm just thankful that my friends on the wetside didn't have to deal with a big mess. :twocents:
Thanks Brother!
Post by: Mudman on October 16, 2016, 12:48:29 PM
Post by: lokidog on October 16, 2016, 03:28:00 PM
Post by: JDHasty on October 16, 2016, 04:01:19 PM
Post by: trophyhunt on October 16, 2016, 04:02:05 PM
Post by: JLS on October 16, 2016, 04:20:17 PM
I'd just love to hear them say, "sorry folks we screwed up again ", for once.
Quote
“Yes, our forecast did not turn out as predicted. We are not pleased about it either,” the weather service’s office posted on Facebook Sunday morning.
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/weather/western-washington-windstorm-weaker-than-predicted/
They did. I can't believe everyone is still grumbling about it. Be thankful everything is okay and move on.
Post by: JDHasty on October 16, 2016, 04:33:43 PM
I'm not any kind of dare devil, but have been in my tree stands in far worse weather than I sat through yesterday.
Post by: JLS on October 16, 2016, 04:50:32 PM
Carry on.
Post by: JDHasty on October 16, 2016, 05:02:49 PM
I have no dog in this fight, but I find the continued assertions that this was all blown up for TV ratings to be rather arrogant and ignorant. If you have proof that it was done maliciously and with the intent to inflate TV ratings, I'd love to see it. Until then, I'll assume that the forecasters who erred are good people who were doing their best to inform people of the severity and dangerousness of the storm. Those who continue to blather on are really no different than the talking heads on TV that make drama out of nothing.
Carry on.
If the same indivuals you place such great confidence were not the same individuals who have been banging the phony baloney "global warming" now "climate change" drum for the last two decades I might not believe that there were ulterior motives driving this.
Post by: Fl0und3rz on October 16, 2016, 06:40:37 PM
Post by: Fullabull on October 16, 2016, 09:24:41 PM
Post by: JDHasty on October 17, 2016, 08:20:56 AM
I have no dog in this fight, but I find the continued assertions that this was all blown up for TV ratings to be rather arrogant and ignorant. If you have proof that it was done maliciously and with the intent to inflate TV ratings, I'd love to see it. Until then, I'll assume that the forecasters who erred are good people who were doing their best to inform people of the severity and dangerousness of the storm. Those who continue to blather on are really no different than the talking heads on TV that make drama out of nothing.
Carry on.
I don't have television, but every time I was over at my mother's house all week the television was on and half the time the "weather forecasters," were blathering on about "climate change" and how this storm was a symptom of "climate change."
This anthropogenic catastrophic climate change is a bunch of ideologically driven pseudoscience pure and simple and the people who keep ballyhooing it are charlatans and Mountebanks of the losest order.
That isn't "proof that it was done maliciously and with the intent to inflate TV ratings," but it certainly does call into question the integrity of the person behind the mouth spewing it. If, and it is a big IF, "the forces driving" this "global warming" simply erred were good people who had not been doing their best to mislead people re: "global warming" for the last decade or two, then I might be considerably more open to giving the benefit of the doubt here.
The fact of the matter it it is THEY who, with their ideologically driven corruption of science in the case of this "global warming" nonsense who have given me every reason to have no faith their integrity and to call into question their motives.
Post by: lamrith on October 17, 2016, 08:29:53 AM
Not to mention how it can significantly affect the general population. I saw a number of pictures of cleaned out stores, people going out of their way and spending $ to move vehicles, campers, etc, etc to safer locations. Extremely disruptive and puts an economical hardship on the general population making all these special preparations for no reason at all because the meteorologists can't do their jobs. If it had been lower wind or something I can get that, but no wind at all....... It was a total NON storm, we have had random rain storms come thru that were much more damaging.
Post by: JDHasty on October 17, 2016, 08:44:22 AM
Big issue I have is that they are always getting it wrong. If any of us got it wrong that often and that badly at our jobs we would not have a job.... :bash:
Not to mention how it can significantly affect the general population. I saw a number of pictures of cleaned out stores, people going out of their way and spending $ to move vehicles, campers, etc, etc to safer locations. Extremely disruptive and puts an economical hardship on the general population making all these special preparations for no reason at all because the meteorologists can't do their jobs. If it had been lower wind or something I can get that, but no wind at all....... It was a total NON storm, we have had random rain storms come thru that were much more damaging.
Heck, my 93 year old mother was worried sick all week about everyone in the family. All she does is sit in front of the television and she believes most of the crap that comes pouring out of it.
Post by: Knocker of rocks on October 17, 2016, 09:16:04 AM
Quote
As I will describe in a future blog, this was not a failure so much of the models, but of communication of uncertainty. My profession has to stop providing the worst case or most probable weather evolution, but provide society with full probabilistic guidance. Yesterday was a good example of the failure mode when we do not. The media, such as the Seattle Times and several TV stations, were happy to hype up the storm because of all the interest in such events. Many events were unnecessarily cancelled or postponed, some on Friday or Saturday morning when there was no chance of strong winds.
The key facts are this:
1. By two to three days ago is was clear that there was no chance of a Columbus Day storm event. Prior to that, some model forecasts suggest it.
2. It was clear that a small-sized, but intense low center was going to pass through our region.
3. A small track error (say 50-100 km over a day) would radically change the forecast at any particular location.
4. Such a small error was well within forecast uncertainty as revealed by our ensemble (many forecast) systems.
5. Local meteorologists warned of the worst case situation, but failed to communicate the uncertainty of the prediction. I tried to talk about track errors, but it is clear that I needed to do much more.
Post by: jackelope on October 17, 2016, 09:18:44 AM
I'd just love to hear them say, "sorry folks we screwed up again ", for once.Quote“Yes, our forecast did not turn out as predicted. We are not pleased about it either,” the weather service’s office posted on Facebook Sunday morning.
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/weather/western-washington-windstorm-weaker-than-predicted/
They did. I can't believe everyone is still grumbling about it. Be thankful everything is okay and move on.
I heard a lot about how this storm was unpredictable and they couldn't say for sure what was going to happen. Predicting a storm that was thousands of miles away is very tough. I don't have any issues with the storm not happening. I'm thankful it didn't happen. It did happen in 2006 and we got pummeled. That was no fun. I didn't go hunting so I could be home with my wife and kid just in case. We had a good family weekend. It is what it is. Rather than bitch, we should be thankful we didn't get blasted.
My :twocents:
(https://hunting-washington.com/smf/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fuploads.tapatalk-cdn.com%2F20161017%2F537a1048884444a54218b061ae2ea108.jpg&hash=4b54bf53ddedb2d7ff13707c0d33f3ebf7404e09)
Post by: Knocker of rocks on October 17, 2016, 09:31:02 AM
Predicting a storm that was thousands of miles away is very tough. I don't have any issues with the storm not happening. I'm thankful it didn't happen. It did happen in 2006 and we got pummeled. That was no fun. I didn't go hunting so I could be home with my wife and kid just in case. We had a good family weekend. It is what it is. Rather than bitch, we should be thankful we didn't get blasted.
My :twocents:
:yeah:
And if I remember right, the 1993 storm blind sided us
Post by: JDHasty on October 17, 2016, 10:08:27 AM
Here's what Cliff Mass has to say:QuoteAs I will describe in a future blog, this was not a failure so much of the models, but of communication of uncertainty. My profession has to stop providing the worst case or most probable weather evolution, but provide society with full probabilistic guidance. Yesterday was a good example of the failure mode when we do not. The media, such as the Seattle Times and several TV stations, were happy to hype up the storm because of all the interest in such events. Many events were unnecessarily cancelled or postponed, some on Friday or Saturday morning when there was no chance of strong winds.
The key facts are this:
1. By two to three days ago is was clear that there was no chance of a Columbus Day storm event. Prior to that, some model forecasts suggest it.
2. It was clear that a small-sized, but intense low center was going to pass through our region.
3. A small track error (say 50-100 km over a day) would radically change the forecast at any particular location.
4. Such a small error was well within forecast uncertainty as revealed by our ensemble (many forecast) systems.
5. Local meteorologists warned of the worst case situation, but failed to communicate the uncertainty of the prediction. I tried to talk about track errors, but it is clear that I needed to do much more.
That kinda' validates my observations as being more than fairly accurate.