Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 10, 2017, 12:46:07 PM
1. Is it too early to call it or is there a chance that this will still be a "mild" winter?
2. Does it really affect game populations that much? What's the potential percentage loss here? 20%? 50%? 90%?
3. Does it affect deer more than elk?
4. Will the 2017 winter have the potential to change your applications and hunts for 2017?
Post by: go4steelhd on January 10, 2017, 05:57:30 PM
#2 in bad winters It will be 60 or 70% on deer. They say it can be 90% on fawns. The last one like that in Idaho was 1992 followed by another tuff winter in 1996. The deer really never returned to old numbers from there. In 2016 it was the best numbers I've seen since 1992.
#3 deer are the ones greatly affected party because of size. Elk are a big tuff animals, they have big hoofs and generally a large herd can dig down to good feed. I have not seen a noticeable difference in there numbers from year to year by winter kill.
#4 not really
Post by: huntnnw on January 10, 2017, 09:59:23 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 10, 2017, 10:53:54 PM
Post by: 2MANY on January 11, 2017, 09:05:45 AM
Post by: Dhoey07 on January 11, 2017, 09:36:24 AM
Post by: h2ofowlr on January 11, 2017, 09:46:26 AM
Post by: jrebel on January 11, 2017, 09:52:25 AM
Post by: Magnum_Willys on January 11, 2017, 09:55:49 AM
Post by: autodink13 on January 11, 2017, 09:58:37 AM
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Post by: BULLBLASTER on January 11, 2017, 10:17:46 AM
It seemed like the animals came into winter very healthy. That's a plus.:yeah: in the areas I hunt there was still growing green feed at crazy levels into December. A month or so later than a normal year due to warm temps in November.
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Post by: Pathfinder101 on January 11, 2017, 10:21:55 AM
As per the OP I wanted to talk winter kill in general, it's a bit early but I'm sure by mid Feb we'll have more than a few specific areas to talk about :(
This seems to be my experience. December snow doesn't kill deer. FEBRUARY snow kills deer. When they're in good shape, they usually seem to come out of it OK as long as the really bad weather ends in January. Both bucks we killed here in WA had good fat on them this year.
Post by: The scout on January 11, 2017, 11:00:02 AM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 11, 2017, 11:33:23 AM
Post by: Dhoey07 on January 11, 2017, 11:39:36 AM
Does anybody have a link to some sort of snotel data site that might show the trends and or amounts of snow throughout the western states? Current snow levels and percentage of "normal" snow levels for the year type of stuff?
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/winter-weather
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 11, 2017, 11:53:14 AM
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
Post by: Griiz on January 11, 2017, 01:18:01 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 11, 2017, 02:02:49 PM
If only we could zoom...
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on January 11, 2017, 03:29:11 PM
1. Some areas can still be called mild. In others there will be some significant fawn losses. In a few areas where December had really frigid conditions and/or deep crusted snow, some dominant bucks probably winterkilled, unable to recover from post-rut stress.
2. Yes, it really can affect populations, however, with the exception of post-rut dominant bucks, most increased mortality occurs in the fawn population. Adult doe non-hunting mortality averages 15% annually, regardless of weather. Average overwinter fawn mortality is 55%, December - May, but can vary from less than 5% to greater than 95%. Since fawns make up anywhere from 25-50% of the post-hunt population, it is quite possible to lose 30-50% of the population in a bad winter.
3. Usually deer are affected more than elk. In some areas, where high densities of elk are maintained year-round and the herd can be forage limited, significant elk die-offs can occur - usually due to wildfire followed by a cold early winter, or following a severe summer drought. Like deer, the elevated mortality will occur in calves. Unlike deer, elevated bull mortality rates almost never occur post-rut, as they have a couple of months to recover body condition and as larger animals are more robust to winter-related stress than bucks.
4. A severe winterkill, if the game agency is on the ball, is usually followed by a drastic reduction in antlerless opportunity. It could affect where a hunter puts in for doe or cow hunting. Since the largest component of the buck harvest is 2.5 year old bucks under normal conditions, a high fawn die-off has the greatest impact on buck hunting the second season after the winter kill. If we have a high winterkill in GMU xyz this winter, the buck success will tank in 2018. It wouldn't normally affect where I put in for 2017 quality opportunities, but because general and special permit deer hunting in my quality areas sucked in 2016 - I have already decided to not put in for those usual areas.
On another note, one of my most reliable indicators for local winterkill rates is how early in the winter I see bald eagles leaving the open water and coots of the Columbia to cruise the sagebrush foothills. In really bad years it starts in early December; in mild years they stick to the river until early March. This winter along the Columbia in Chelan, Douglas and Okanogan counties, bald eagles started hitting the winter range in early January. My eagle ball tells me the bucks didn't take a hit post-rut, but that fawns started tipping over a couple weeks ago, representing average to above average winter kill.
Post by: packmule on January 11, 2017, 06:11:10 PM
The answer to all questions (drum roll): It depends.
1. Some areas can still be called mild. In others there will be some significant fawn losses. In a few areas where December had really frigid conditions and/or deep crusted snow, some dominant bucks probably winterkilled, unable to recover from post-rut stress.
2. Yes, it really can affect populations, however, with the exception of post-rut dominant bucks, most increased mortality occurs in the fawn population. Adult doe non-hunting mortality averages 15% annually, regardless of weather. Average overwinter fawn mortality is 55%, December - May, but can vary from less than 5% to greater than 95%. Since fawns make up anywhere from 25-50% of the post-hunt population, it is quite possible to lose 30-50% of the population in a bad winter.
3. Usually deer are affected more than elk. In some areas, where high densities of elk are maintained year-round and the herd can be forage limited, significant elk die-offs can occur - usually due to wildfire followed by a cold early winter, or following a severe summer drought. Like deer, the elevated mortality will occur in calves. Unlike deer, elevated bull mortality rates almost never occur post-rut, as they have a couple of months to recover body condition and as larger animals are more robust to winter-related stress than bucks.
4. A severe winterkill, if the game agency is on the ball, is usually followed by a drastic reduction in antlerless opportunity. It could affect where a hunter puts in for doe or cow hunting. Since the largest component of the buck harvest is 2.5 year old bucks under normal conditions, a high fawn die-off has the greatest impact on buck hunting the second season after the winter kill. If we have a high winterkill in GMU xyz this winter, the buck success will tank in 2018. It wouldn't normally affect where I put in for 2017 quality opportunities, but because general and special permit deer hunting in my quality areas sucked in 2016 - I have already decided to not put in for those usual areas.
On another note, one of my most reliable indicators for local winterkill rates is how early in the winter I see bald eagles leaving the open water and coots of the Columbia to cruise the sagebrush foothills. In really bad years it starts in early December; in mild years they stick to the river until early March. This winter along the Columbia in Chelan, Douglas and Okanogan counties, bald eagles started hitting the winter range in early January. My eagle ball tells me the bucks didn't take a hit post-rut, but that fawns started tipping over a couple weeks ago, representing average to above average winter kill.
Great summary Beau, thanks for the good information!
Post by: crabcreekhunter on January 12, 2017, 01:18:42 AM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 12, 2017, 06:41:52 AM
You dropped some good knowledge on us there!! I've never freaked out over winter kill, much less thought about it. Apparently you have, thanks.
It begs the question...what is a 2.5 year old deer?
Answer: It depends. :)
Mr Lung please continue to stay on board this thread as conditions change!!
Post by: theleo on January 12, 2017, 09:58:31 AM
Just when Idaho was getting good Im afraid two steps back. Arghhhh:yeah:
What few animals that remained that the wolves hadn't killed are now dead from the snow. Idaho is a complete loss now. :'(
Post by: 2MANY on January 12, 2017, 10:24:48 AM
Post by: muzzlebuck on January 12, 2017, 11:26:15 AM
http://weather.wsu.edu/
Post by: meatwhack on January 12, 2017, 06:55:44 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 12, 2017, 07:54:13 PM
:yeah:I could not agree more. In fact THE LAST THING a guy would want to do this coming year would be to put in for the draw tags in Idaho!!
What few animals that remained that the wolves hadn't killed are now dead from the snow. Idaho is a complete loss now. :'(
Post by: bobcat on January 12, 2017, 10:27:09 PM
Post by: bobcat on January 12, 2017, 10:34:08 PM
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on January 13, 2017, 03:09:00 PM
Doublelung, been watching the deer around us here and most seem pretty healthy, glassed a few winterkills up when the cold hit. Just came through town at 1 am and seems like alot more deer in the yards this week now. I think last years winter was worse in our area. Looks like warmer temps mid next week.I've seen some rough-looking fawns, but also some good-looking fawns and most of the adults look good too. I've been watching that forecast, would really like to see things open up and warm up. On the bright side, the extended cold has minimized crusting, and snow depths aren't limiting deer to the crucial winter ranges (<2,500' approximately) - there are still deer up to 4,000' at least in some areas. East of the Columbia, the wind has been keeping wheat and other crops accessible. I definitely agree last winter was tougher in a lot of north-central Washington.
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on January 13, 2017, 03:19:27 PM
It begs the question...what is a 2.5 year old deer?
Answer: It depends. :)
Whoops, sorry for the population modeling jargon. All fawns and calves in the northern states are born mid-late spring, so bios have a habit of tacking on a half year for animals killed during fall hunting seasons. A 2.5 year old deer is one that was born in the spring two years before the fall in which it was killed. Some prefer to call the same just 2+, others will assume a June birthdate and call September and October kills 2.3, November 2.4 and December 2.5. Still others will have actual peak birth timing data for species in their area and go from there.
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on January 13, 2017, 04:01:22 PM
Agreed. Many thousands of pints of beer have been consumed by dedicated game bios talking about winters and effects on herds. When a population is low relative to available forage, you hope for mild all the way. When a herd is in balance with forage or too high, some early severe weather can actually aid over-all herd survival by draining down the reserves of the ones that are going to die regardless - better they die in December than eat 3 months of forage and die in March.As per the OP I wanted to talk winter kill in general, it's a bit early but I'm sure by mid Feb we'll have more than a few specific areas to talk about :(
This seems to be my experience. December snow doesn't kill deer. FEBRUARY snow kills deer. When they're in good shape, they usually seem to come out of it OK as long as the really bad weather ends in January. Both bucks we killed here in WA had good fat on them this year.
I do worry for the herds that have been experiencing -20s to -40s F in the northern Rockies and plains - those deer and antelope are going to take a beating I'm afraid - especially if they get hit with spring blizzards.
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on January 19, 2017, 04:22:30 PM
Post by: DIYARCHERYJUNKIE on January 19, 2017, 04:26:23 PM
Post by: Pathfinder101 on January 20, 2017, 10:32:51 PM
Post by: Dan-o on January 20, 2017, 11:41:54 PM
Agreed. Many thousands of pints of beer have been consumed by dedicated game bios talking about winters and effects on herds. When a population is low relative to available forage, you hope for mild all the way. When a herd is in balance with forage or too high, some early severe weather can actually aid over-all herd survival by draining down the reserves of the ones that are going to die regardless - better they die in December than eat 3 months of forage and die in March.As per the OP I wanted to talk winter kill in general, it's a bit early but I'm sure by mid Feb we'll have more than a few specific areas to talk about :(
This seems to be my experience. December snow doesn't kill deer. FEBRUARY snow kills deer. When they're in good shape, they usually seem to come out of it OK as long as the really bad weather ends in January. Both bucks we killed here in WA had good fat on them this year.
I do worry for the herds that have been experiencing -20s to -40s F in the northern Rockies and plains - those deer and antelope are going to take a beating I'm afraid - especially if they get hit with spring blizzards.
Seems the deeper snow has to take a toll......
Post by: crabcreekhunter on January 21, 2017, 08:49:38 AM
I havent seen nearly the numbers down in my neighborhood as I have last year which is a good thing i suppose. The next two weeks will decide will decide a lot. I know we are a lot better off than idaho and many states. Hoping guys grow a little common sense and leave the deer alone with the head gear dropping and wait til march and april.Doublelung, been watching the deer around us here and most seem pretty healthy, glassed a few winterkills up when the cold hit. Just came through town at 1 am and seems like alot more deer in the yards this week now. I think last years winter was worse in our area. Looks like warmer temps mid next week.I've seen some rough-looking fawns, but also some good-looking fawns and most of the adults look good too. I've been watching that forecast, would really like to see things open up and warm up. On the bright side, the extended cold has minimized crusting, and snow depths aren't limiting deer to the crucial winter ranges (<2,500' approximately) - there are still deer up to 4,000' at least in some areas. East of the Columbia, the wind has been keeping wheat and other crops accessible. I definitely agree last winter was tougher in a lot of north-central Washington.
Post by: jstone on January 22, 2017, 05:19:48 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 22, 2017, 10:15:04 PM
Go ahead and model your populations brother. I hang out with Biologists every now and again ;)It begs the question...what is a 2.5 year old deer?
Answer: It depends. :)
Whoops, sorry for the population modeling jargon. All fawns and calves in the northern states are born mid-late spring, so bios have a habit of tacking on a half year for animals killed during fall hunting seasons. A 2.5 year old deer is one that was born in the spring two years before the fall in which it was killed. Some prefer to call the same just 2+, others will assume a June birthdate and call September and October kills 2.3, November 2.4 and December 2.5. Still others will have actual peak birth timing data for species in their area and go from there.
I was saying: What does a 2.5 year old deer really look like...110"? 130"? 138"? Forky?
I reckon it just depends.
We had a spirited debate whilst looking over a pile of dead buckums last year...
Pretty sure my buddy kilt the most genetically gifted 78# fawn you ever did see!!
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 22, 2017, 10:15:52 PM
not lookin' good for the home team...Damnations!!
At least they're not being wasteful :/
Post by: elkboy on January 22, 2017, 10:51:58 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on January 23, 2017, 04:01:46 PM
Wyoming
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 23, 2017, 08:40:34 PM
Post by: pianoman9701 on January 24, 2017, 07:41:52 AM
Isn't this early for the fawns to be dropping?I believe they're referring to last years fawns.
Post by: pianoman9701 on January 24, 2017, 07:44:28 AM
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on January 24, 2017, 03:38:23 PM
Gotcha! A 2.5 year old buck is on his second set of antlers and was probably a spike or 2-point the year before. A typical Washington 2.5 year old really depends by area, but in general I'd say is a 14-18" outside spread, spindly 3 or 4 point mule deer; a basket-racked 3 or 4 point whitetail (counting eye guards) and 10-14" outside. Probably 100-110 pounds dressed.Go ahead and model your populations brother. I hang out with Biologists every now and again ;)It begs the question...what is a 2.5 year old deer?
Answer: It depends. :)
Whoops, sorry for the population modeling jargon. All fawns and calves in the northern states are born mid-late spring, so bios have a habit of tacking on a half year for animals killed during fall hunting seasons. A 2.5 year old deer is one that was born in the spring two years before the fall in which it was killed. Some prefer to call the same just 2+, others will assume a June birthdate and call September and October kills 2.3, November 2.4 and December 2.5. Still others will have actual peak birth timing data for species in their area and go from there.
I was saying: What does a 2.5 year old deer really look like...110"? 130"? 138"? Forky?
I reckon it just depends.
We had a spirited debate whilst looking over a pile of dead buckums last year...
Pretty sure my buddy kilt the most genetically gifted 78# fawn you ever did see!!
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on January 24, 2017, 03:45:18 PM
Isn't a cold snap around birthing time the worst for mortality rates in deer and elk, Doublelung?It can be occasionally, more so for deer and pronghorn than elk. More of an issue in the Rocky Mountain states, where spring blizzards can actually cover the fawns with snow. So many of the newborns are going to die anyway, it can be difficult to piece out predation, exposure and lactation issues. Only 1 fawn in 5 or 6 needs to survive to 12 months for a stable deer population, around 1 in 3 to 4 for elk calves. it's very common to have over half the newborns dead within 2 weeks of birth.
Post by: Pathfinder101 on January 31, 2017, 03:59:26 PM
http://wyo4news.com/news/severe-winter-conditions-impact-wildlife-southwest-wyoming
Wyoming
Not cool...
Post by: WALLEYEGUY on January 31, 2017, 04:24:13 PM
Post by: hirshey on January 31, 2017, 06:28:14 PM
If the spring green up happens too fast they will overindulge and die.
Especially after a tough winter. I've found lots of yearlings with just a little blood and/or green rumen around the nostrils/mouth. I suspect lots of areas in the PNW are in the average to bad winter kill this season. Especially with that week plus of single digits/below 0, followed by wet and another freeze.
Post by: 2MANY on February 01, 2017, 01:18:47 PM
Watched the circle of life everyday.
Winter kill is a horrible thing to watch.
Post by: dvolmer on February 01, 2017, 03:47:57 PM
Post by: Ghost Hunter on February 02, 2017, 06:19:18 AM
Well I just applied for WY elk so...
I think there is a grace period for removing application ;) :dunno: I'm going with the odds I won't draw. :(
Post by: Wolfdog2314 on February 02, 2017, 07:13:36 AM
Post by: Buckblaster on February 02, 2017, 08:33:14 AM
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on February 02, 2017, 09:07:25 AM
Post by: Mudman on February 02, 2017, 09:22:48 AM
Chelan County PUD recently released a news release in response to recent inquiries about high bills. The December-January billing period was the coldest on record.AHHH!! Global Warming skipped us! Call Gore!! :yike:
Post by: Ghost Hunter on February 02, 2017, 03:45:58 PM
:yeah: Not sure they aren't playing it down a little. Brother has lived in the Rock Springs - Lander area for over 40 years. He says it's as bad as he has seen. :(http://wyo4news.com/news/severe-winter-conditions-impact-wildlife-southwest-wyoming
Wyoming
Not cool...
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on February 03, 2017, 10:35:49 AM
That's sad. I was there for the '92-93 and '96-97 winters, and those were both severe buttkickers for antelope and deer; '96-97 was one of the very few years that elk in western Wyoming had increased weather-related mortality.:yeah: Not sure they aren't playing it down a little. Brother has lived in the Rock Springs - Lander area for over 40 years. He says it's as bad as he has seen. :(http://wyo4news.com/news/severe-winter-conditions-impact-wildlife-southwest-wyoming
Wyoming
Not cool...
Post by: Buckblaster on February 04, 2017, 06:53:56 AM
Post by: bobcat on February 07, 2017, 10:17:41 AM
Post by: actionshooter on February 07, 2017, 11:38:44 AM
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on February 07, 2017, 11:41:18 AM
96-97 was a killer winter here too.Yes indeed. Where you see references to the worst winter in 20 years, that is the point of reference.
Post by: TriggerMike on February 09, 2017, 12:27:59 PM
Post by: Huntin Hounds on February 09, 2017, 03:42:04 PM
Post by: bobcat on February 09, 2017, 08:55:36 PM
Post by: actionshooter on February 09, 2017, 09:51:55 PM
https://wgfd.wyo.gov/News/Cold-temperatures-and-deep-snow-taking-a-toll-on-W
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on February 10, 2017, 11:11:45 AM
Post by: bobcat on February 10, 2017, 11:17:59 AM
Post by: heavyhorned on February 10, 2017, 12:38:18 PM
Post by: grade-creek-rd on February 13, 2017, 09:34:21 AM
Grade :)
Post by: heavyhorned on February 13, 2017, 10:47:39 AM
heavyhorned...you sound like a guy who spends each morning drinking coffee looking at deer...really hope you pick out a big whitetail for your nephew, he needs one to fill his "Washington Grand Slam" of deer, as you know he's already killed a 25" muley and notched last years tag on a blacktail...not bad for a kid that's 11 years old and only hunting a couple of years...must be taught by your brother...if i can keep track of them i will get him on them for sure. he is becoming one hell of a hunter. must be in his jeans?
Grade :)
Post by: heavyhorned on February 13, 2017, 10:53:49 AM
heavyhorned...you sound like a guy who spends each morning drinking coffee looking at deer...really hope you pick out a big whitetail for your nephew, he needs one to fill his "Washington Grand Slam" of deer, as you know he's already killed a 25" muley and notched last years tag on a blacktail...not bad for a kid that's 11 years old and only hunting a couple of years...must be taught by your brother...if i can keep track of them i will get him on them for sure. he is becoming one hell of a hunter. must be in his jeans?
Grade :)
Post by: WAcoueshunter on February 13, 2017, 10:55:59 AM
It's 60 degrees in Casper, Wyoming and 64 in Douglas right now. :tup:
Nice, hurry up and melt!!!
Post by: Sitka_Blacktail on February 13, 2017, 12:53:11 PM
The winter kill in Idaho's unit 1 will probably be pretty bad after that big snow they got. I was in Bonners Ferry yesterday and the hay fields have snow to the tops of the fence posts. Saw where several critters got smacked by trains. One of my customers was telling me he watched a fawn try and escape hwy 95 without getting smacked only to sink up to its neck in the snow when it made it off the hwy.
During big snow years in Alaska the trains take a heavy toll on moose. In the Mat-Su Borough where I lived for six years, they can end up with upwards of 500 moose killed by autos, and the train toll can surpass that. The moose will find a way down on the tracks where the snow is swept away by the trains and packed down, so it's easy walking, but when a train comes, they can't get back up over the bank to get away, and the trains don't/won't stop for anything. Some nights it's an absolute slaughter.
Here's a story of one of the worst years ever. http://www.alaskarails.org/stories/ARR-moose.html
Post by: Sitka_Blacktail on February 13, 2017, 01:03:30 PM
Post by: Duckslayer89 on February 13, 2017, 01:19:03 PM
The winter kill in Idaho's unit 1 will probably be pretty bad after that big snow they got. I was in Bonners Ferry yesterday and the hay fields have snow to the tops of the fence posts. Saw where several critters got smacked by trains. One of my customers was telling me he watched a fawn try and escape hwy 95 without getting smacked only to sink up to its neck in the snow when it made it off the hwy.
During big snow years in Alaska the trains take a heavy toll on moose. In the Mat-Su Borough where I lived for six years, they can end up with upwards of 500 moose killed by autos, and the train toll can surpass that. The moose will find a way down on the tracks where the snow is swept away by the trains and packed down, so it's easy walking, but when a train comes, they can't get back up over the bank to get away, and the trains don't/won't stop for anything. Some nights it's an absolute slaughter.
Here's a story of one of the worst years ever. http://www.alaskarails.org/stories/ARR-moose.html
It's crazy how many get killed by train. I've noticed a big increase lately. Some of the deer laying down between the rails? Guessing because there's less snow obviously.
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on February 13, 2017, 05:05:40 PM
On the bright side, all 82 looked to be in good shape, whereas last year we were seeing emaciated mule deer with eagles waiting for them to tip over. The eagles are following the mule deer hoping to scavenge a coyote kill - does not look like many of these deer will tip over and die of winter stress. Also, record high numbers of eagles along the reservoir, which is good - means they aren't scattered over the winter range taking advantage of abundant winterkill deer.
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on February 14, 2017, 11:32:14 AM
Nice picture heavyhorned. I can see 4 for sure and I'm pretty sure a 5th.I see 5 for sure and maybe a 6th
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Post by: dvolmer on February 22, 2017, 03:19:51 PM
Post by: grundy53 on February 22, 2017, 03:48:27 PM
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Post by: bearpaw on February 22, 2017, 04:04:28 PM
Post by: Ghost Hunter on February 22, 2017, 04:30:25 PM
https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Regional%20Offices/Green%20River/GR-Newsletter-Publication-40-FINAL.pdf