Post by: TD3939 on June 20, 2017, 06:44:50 PM
This phenomena is apparently called "point creep" and it paints a grim picture of what our chances really are.
Just for the record, I have 16 "quality" deer points and 21 for elk..
I suggest we rename these tags from "Quality" to "Once in a life time" because that's what we're really talking about.
Just sayin
Post by: MuzzyHunter28 on June 20, 2017, 07:28:43 PM
Post by: fishngamereaper on June 20, 2017, 07:33:29 PM
I couldn't agree with you more! Its very disappointing. My pops is mad at him self for not starting me off with special points when I first started hunting. I could of had some serious cool hunts by now! 25 yrs old and haven't even drew a quality tag.....Been fortunate in some other category's...But no quality elk or deer yet.
:chuckle: Some of us are almost twice your age and have barley drawn anything good. Get in line boy, your in for a long wait.
Post by: huntnnw on June 20, 2017, 07:42:46 PM
Post by: Marcus on June 20, 2017, 08:24:34 PM
Post by: WAcoueshunter on June 20, 2017, 08:46:26 PM
It frys me though NR and Residents are considered in the same pool. No other western state does that accross the board. Lame
You could put a 10% cap on NRs and it wouldn't change anything here. We weed out the NRs from our draws by having upfront, expensive and non-refundable deer and elk tags. OIL isn't much different, very expensive to apply as a NR in WA for astronomical draw odds. They are better off buying raffle tickets. I'd be surprised if NRs made up 10% here for any species.
Post by: Miles on June 20, 2017, 09:12:36 PM
Our point system and draw system is not what you call point creep. Look at states such as UT,WY and CO that is point creep.
Thank you.... I get so tired of people crying about point creep in wa. A true preference point system has point creep when the total number of tags issued is not enough to clear out the max point holders (or top few). The following year what took 10points to draw will now take 11 until tags increase in qty or people drop out of the pool. If it doesn't clear out the group of hunters with 11 points, the following year it will start drawing at 12 points, etc...
For the last time....there is no point creep in WA so stop repeating the phrase just because you hear about it from other states.
Post by: TD3939 on June 20, 2017, 09:59:18 PM
Well you can call it whatever you'd like. The fact is to use my simplistic example there's 98 other guys with one more point for next years draw and no real increase in chance of getting drawn for anything.
We're all "creeping" along here year after year hoping that next year will be different when in fact, mathematically, it would almost be a miracle or 1 in a hundred.....
Post by: Bob33 on June 20, 2017, 10:01:36 PM
Post by: fishngamereaper on June 20, 2017, 10:04:47 PM
Ok. Points crawl.
Which is how we get to bad after not drawing.
Post by: Reidus on June 20, 2017, 10:06:59 PM
:yeah:It frys me though NR and Residents are considered in the same pool. No other western state does that accross the board. Lame
You could put a 10% cap on NRs and it wouldn't change anything here. We weed out the NRs from our draws by having upfront, expensive and non-refundable deer and elk tags. OIL isn't much different, very expensive to apply as a NR in WA for astronomical draw odds. They are better off buying raffle tickets. I'd be surprised if NRs made up 10% here for any species.
How many NR have you heard of drawing a good tag here?
Lots better options for NR in other states.
Post by: Luckyone on June 20, 2017, 10:29:56 PM
Post by: jmscon on June 20, 2017, 10:37:32 PM
Post by: Reidus on June 20, 2017, 10:46:30 PM
I was thinking more along the lines of deer and elk tags. Not many NR will buy tags in WA every year and apply. Probably a few do.
Post by: bobcat on June 20, 2017, 10:52:52 PM
Post by: fish vacuum on June 21, 2017, 02:55:52 AM
If you take lets say 15 tags available and 1500 people applying, well you do the math, the chances are 1 %.You could apply for the many quality hunts that have better odds.
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on June 21, 2017, 06:35:35 AM
I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.$113 per species. To apply for a "quality" deer or elk tag would cost $113 plus the tag fee. That is an expensive spike only tag for nonresidents
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Post by: Magnum_Willys on June 21, 2017, 06:43:04 AM
Point Creep in Washington is when your odds don't increase next year. If you have less than the average points, with all those above you having their points squared your odds drop next year. Aka - ones at the top not getting cleared out. Only difference from Colorado is in Washington your odds drop but not to zero like Colorado's.
Post by: bobcat on June 21, 2017, 07:16:38 AM
Post by: boneaddict on June 21, 2017, 07:22:04 AM
Post by: Bigshooter on June 21, 2017, 07:48:41 AM
Washington has Point Creep. Each state has its own version.
Point Creep in Washington is when your odds don't increase next year. If you have less than the average points, with all those above you having their points squared your odds drop next year. Aka - ones at the top not getting cleared out. Only difference from Colorado is in Washington your odds drop but not to zero like Colorado's.
Wrong.
Post by: no.cen.wa on June 21, 2017, 08:02:49 AM
John G
Post by: Bob33 on June 21, 2017, 08:05:06 AM
I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.I just made an attempt to estimate the odds of someone drawing a moose permit in 23 years of applying in Washington, based on the current number of applicants and points. I came up about 9%: apply for 23 years and have around a 1 in 10 chance of getting a moose permit sometime in those 23 years.
I suspect the odds of drawing a moose permit in Idaho in 23 years even as a non-resident would be much higher.
To me the lesson is simple: if you really hunt to hunt moose in your lifetime, don't count on doing it in Washington unless you can afford to buy the auction permit. :twocents:
Post by: Miles on June 21, 2017, 08:11:44 AM
Washington has Point Creep. Each state has its own version.
Point Creep in Washington is when your odds don't increase next year. If you have less than the average points, with all those above you having their points squared your odds drop next year. Aka - ones at the top not getting cleared out. Only difference from Colorado is in Washington your odds drop but not to zero like Colorado's.
Wrong.
It's like talking to a wall Bigshooter. Don't waste your time.
Just post something about point creep in wa and watch everyone pile in to back up your claims. Lol
Post by: WAcoueshunter on June 21, 2017, 08:13:32 AM
Washington has Point Creep. Each state has its own version.
Point Creep in Washington is when your odds don't increase next year. If you have less than the average points, with all those above you having their points squared your odds drop next year. Aka - ones at the top not getting cleared out. Only difference from Colorado is in Washington your odds drop but not to zero like Colorado's.
Wrong.
This debate always cracks me up. So who is the keeper of the official definition of "points creep"? Webster's?
Same concept, it just gets applied differently between a weighted system and a true preference point system (or a combo of the two).
Post by: Miles on June 21, 2017, 08:17:19 AM
Post by: Curly on June 21, 2017, 08:18:13 AM
In WA, everyone has a chance, even the new guy that just put in for the first time.
Post by: Miles on June 21, 2017, 08:34:06 AM
Points creep means you never quite have enough points to draw. It's always out of reach.
In WA, everyone has a chance, even the new guy that just put in for the first time.
Those who have never participated in a true preference point system are having a very hard time understanding this concept.
Post by: Stein on June 21, 2017, 08:35:12 AM
For a new hunter, they are mathematically similar. If you start putting in with one point and the draw will never clear out the pack of guys with 20+ points, you had better be one lucky hombre.
It's actually the beauty of WA's system. In a state that doesn't clear max and you need max to draw, you would be smart to quit and go elsewhere. In WA, you always have a chance and it's only a few bucks to try.
Post by: Reidus on June 21, 2017, 08:41:16 AM
Point creep isn't exactly a Webster defined term. In my mind, it means it is getting harder to draw a tag in a given area year over year. In some states, your chance will be zero, in WA, your chance is moving toward zero. You still have a chance, but it goes down every year.
For a new hunter, they are mathematically similar. If you start putting in with one point and the draw will never clear out the pack of guys with 20+ points, you had better be one lucky hombre.
It's actually the beauty of WA's system. In a state that doesn't clear max and you need max to draw, you would be smart to quit and go elsewhere. In WA, you always have a chance and it's only a few bucks to try.
says the guy that drew :chuckle:
Post by: Bob33 on June 21, 2017, 08:41:59 AM
Post by: jmscon on June 21, 2017, 09:04:25 AM
I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.$113 per species. To apply for a "quality" deer or elk tag would cost $113 plus the tag fee. That is an expensive spike only tag for nonresidents
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And you still have to buy the license to apply for the special permits!
Elk university said that if you are a non resident don't even bother trying to hunt in Washington. Building points as a non resident is fruitless.
Post by: Curly on June 21, 2017, 09:10:51 AM
(That is how people are getting their one year old baby a WILD ID # and buying them points for Moose, Goat, and Sheep. By the time the kid is old enough to hunt, they could have a dozen points for OIL species). :twocents:
Post by: jmscon on June 21, 2017, 09:45:08 AM
Actually, I don't think you need a license to apply for the 3 OIL species. So, non residents can apply for OIL species rather inexpensively. :twocents:
(That is how people are getting their one year old baby a WILD ID # and buying them points for Moose, Goat, and Sheep. By the time the kid is old enough to hunt, they could have a dozen points for OIL species). :twocents:
For deer and elk you have to buy the license to apply oil you are correct you don't.
Post by: Bob33 on June 21, 2017, 09:46:22 AM
Actually, I don't think you need a license to apply for the 3 OIL species. So, non residents can apply for OIL species rather inexpensively. :twocents:That is true, although I wouldn't necessarily consider $113 for an application inexpensive, especially considering the low odds of drawing.
(That is how people are getting their one year old baby a WILD ID # and buying them points for Moose, Goat, and Sheep. By the time the kid is old enough to hunt, they could have a dozen points for OIL species). :twocents:
Post by: WAcoueshunter on June 21, 2017, 10:11:43 AM
Points creep means you never quite have enough points to draw. It's always out of reach.
In WA, everyone has a chance, even the new guy that just put in for the first time.
Those who have never participated in a true preference point system are having a very hard time understanding this concept.
:rolleyes: I participate in CO, WY, AZ, and have for many years. I get the difference you are trying to make. I just don't agree that "points creep" means only what you think it does.
Post by: Bigshooter on June 21, 2017, 10:16:07 AM
Post by: Bob33 on June 21, 2017, 10:34:09 AM
Up in Anchorage, there is a famous bar/institution called Chilkoot Charlie’s. It’s one of those go-to places. They have a tongue-in- cheek motto they print on their shirts that says, “We cheat the other guy and pass the savings on to you!”
Somehow, when they came up with that, they must have had bonus/preference points systems in the backs of their minds. A better quote simply couldn’t exist on the subject.
On its surface, the idea of a points system sounds decent enough. Everyone grab a number, take your spot in line, and we’ll all get treated “fairly”. It’s hunting’s version of socialism. The problem with most things of a socialistic nature, though, is that people quickly learn to rely on it and exploit it.
Those who are proponents of such a system tend to look at the more immediate benefit rather than the long-term effects. “If I get in on the ground floor, it’ll put me at the front of the line and I’ll be guaranteed a tag.”
But what about after the first round? What happens then?
There are two overlying assumptions about bonus points. The first is that it always works in all scenarios. The second is that there is no net increase in applicants. Simply put, neither is true.
Let’s back up a second, though. There are a few questions we should be asking to see whether the idea of these points passes the basic litmus test of whether it makes it more likely that you will draw the tag. 1) Does a points system put more deer/elk/sheep on the mountain? The answer is obviously, “No”; 2) Does a points system increase the number of tags? Again, the answer is, “No”; 3) Does a points system make for fewer people putting in for the tag? And that question, folks, is where the light bulb should have just come on.
Let’s address that question in detail. In my home state of Idaho, we don’t have a points system. Along with New Mexico, we’re the last holdouts. Because there is no specific impetus to either put in or risk falling behind in your point totals, there is a percentage of people who are very casual about applying – those who just kind of got busy, or didn’t really have the heart or money this year, or think, “I never draw; screw it, I’m just going to keep my $10 this year.” Under a points system, that percentage of people would now have much more motivation to keep putting in or risk falling behind. My guess is that alone counts for at least a 10% increase in applicants.
Another situation arises in points scenarios where savvy but perhaps less scrupulous hunters will use the system to their advantage by putting in non-hunting friends and family, with the strategy of building up their points over time so that eventually they can put in with them in a party, split/average the points, and draw tags at a faster rate. This creates two problems. First, a person draws tags at an unfair and manipulated rate. Second, that tag that was drawn by the non-hunter either goes straight into the trash can (and right out of the pocket of a deserving hunter) or it ends up going to a person who couldn’t care less about the tag, rather than to a hunter who may have cared deeply about having that tag.
The net result of either scenario, though, is the same. Once you’ve gone through your first round of drawing and now come back in at the bottom, you now have more people in the draw than you would have without a points system. The final net effect is that you have adopted a system that has the same number of tags, with more people in the draw, which ultimately just permanently lowered your chances and/or rate of drawing a tag.
So, we instituted our points system and thus encouraged more people into the draw for the same number of tags. How’s it working so far?
There’s another situation here that makes points a bad idea. What about any group that comes into the draw at a later date? Those who didn’t get in on the ground floor? The one group that we as hunter-conservationists have a proud history of fostering is our youth. “Pass it on” has been a mantra starting from Teddy Roosevelt and now carried today by the likes of the RMEF. This type of points system shoves our youth into a black hole that can take them half or more of their lifetimes to escape.
The longer these points systems stay in place, the more it turns into its own sideshow. Every state that has them has multiple examples where there is still no ceiling. Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and others all are in the mid-20s and still climbing, with no end in sight. They have turned many tags into once-in- a-lifetime tags (at best) by default.
Soon, this nebulous, nefarious patchwork quilt will have new rules adopted on how to deal with “end of life” points debacles. Grandpa will likely be “willing” his 45 sheep points to the grandson of his choice. Families will be fighting over how his points will be split.
Sound ridiculous? Well, it is, but sadly, truth might be stranger than fiction on this one.
Hunting isn’t fair. Of all the endeavors you will pursue in your lifetime, hunting – guaranteed – will be the least fair of them all. That’s why we love it. Each day brings the promise that it only takes once, and today could be that day. It’s the enticement of hope that keeps us going.
With a simple lottery, everyone has that chance, and they have that chance every year. With a simple lottery, the net odds of all of the most interested parties drawing a tag go up, rather than a net decrease or that non-interested parties have tags in their hands. This is a prime example of using the KISS approach and not overcomplicating the obvious.
http://www.themeateater.com/2016/fools-gold-points-systems-offer-false-hope-poorer-odds/
Post by: jackelope on June 21, 2017, 10:54:35 AM
Post by: KNOPHISH on June 21, 2017, 10:56:30 AM
changed to you will draw a good tag next year.
Post by: boneaddict on June 21, 2017, 01:18:15 PM
Quote
I suspect the odds of drawing a moose permit in Idaho in 23 years even as a non-resident would be much higher.
First Year I applied.....
next year I put my Dad in and he drew first year!
Had to front the fee, couldn't apply for deer and elk, no points.
There were 60 people applying for 15 tags or so. Versus Washington!
Post by: Bob33 on June 21, 2017, 01:28:33 PM
Much better way to go. You front the fee but get most of it refunded if not drawn. In 20 years you're almost certain to get a chance to hunt moose. In Washington your odds of getting a permit in 20 years are at best around 10%-20%.QuoteI suspect the odds of drawing a moose permit in Idaho in 23 years even as a non-resident would be much higher.
First Year I applied.....
next year I put my Dad in and he drew first year!
Had to front the fee, couldn't apply for deer and elk, no points.
There were 60 people applying for 15 tags or so. Versus Washington!
Post by: no.cen.wa on June 21, 2017, 02:44:09 PM
Post by: Magnum_Willys on June 21, 2017, 08:41:24 PM
The commonality is that even though your points go up your odds don't or they even go down. In Colorado its a simple concept - it takes x points for 100% certainty of draw one year but x+1 points next year. In Washington the squared odds complicate the results and there is never a certainty of anything.
Post by: TD3939 on June 23, 2017, 06:21:55 PM
Just sayin..
Post by: Bangflop on June 23, 2017, 11:16:02 PM
The best advice I have heard so far to insure a quality tag is to live as long as possible. LOL. Hope I can walk when I'm 95.
Post by: Bangflop on June 23, 2017, 11:21:11 PM
I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.
http://wdfw.wa.gov/publications/01903/wdfw01903.pdf
Read this it will help you make accurate statements.
Post by: bobcat on June 23, 2017, 11:27:50 PM
I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.
http://wdfw.wa.gov/publications/01903/wdfw01903.pdf
Read this it will help you make accurate statements.
That's okay, I already looked it up in the 2017 pamphlet. Yeah, I was thinking of when it used to be only about $50. It's double that now and someone corrected my statement soon after I posted it.
Post by: huntnphool on June 23, 2017, 11:38:02 PM
It's easy to sit back and bitch, not saying that the OP is, how about laying out your better system, here http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,214387.msg2854553.html#msg2854553 is your chance.
Post by: TD3939 on June 25, 2017, 08:28:13 PM
I guess for a start I would allocate a certain percentage of the tags to the applicants with the max number of points. Only seems fair. I realize this is a problem where there's only one tag for a certain hunt. Have to figure out a work around for that one. Ideally more tags would be be best for every scenario. One solution for generating more premium tags for the future would be to END native American poaching. Use every resource possible to make this happen. As we all know when a herd or particular resource starts to expand and become healthy and thriving they're the one group that continually exploits it just because it's legal in this wonderful state. For example Entiat deer, Clockum Elk, and Desert deer.
I would also consider permit only hunting for deer and elk. I know that sounds drastic, but personally I'd rather have a premium hunt every 3 years than every year the way it is now.
My solution for what ever it's worth
Post by: huntnnw on June 25, 2017, 11:57:05 PM
For the OP, and everybody else unhappy with the system, what is YOUR solution?My solution? Get rid of it all together ! Or you pick like ID 1 oil tag and no bucks and bull or you can apply for bucks and Bulls and no oil. When you draw deer or elk you sit out a year too!
It's easy to sit back and bitch, not saying that the OP is, how about laying out your better system, here http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,214387.msg2854553.html#msg2854553 is your chance.
Post by: Bangflop on June 26, 2017, 11:54:31 AM
For the OP, and everybody else unhappy with the system, what is YOUR solution?
It's easy to sit back and bitch, not saying that the OP is, how about laying out your better system, here http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,214387.msg2854553.html#msg2854553 is your chance.
It's easy more tags.
Post by: Bangflop on June 26, 2017, 01:18:48 PM
I think it's only about $50 for a non resident to apply for moose, sheep, or mountain goats here. Compare that to Idaho. Would cost me about $2,200 to apply for moose.
http://wdfw.wa.gov/publications/01903/wdfw01903.pdf
Read this it will help you make accurate statements.
That's okay, I already looked it up in the 2017 pamphlet. Yeah, I was thinking of when it used to be only about $50. It's double that now and someone corrected my statement soon after I posted it.
A correction with out education is just being an azz. I posted the link to be helpful.
Long story short WA has a tone of opportunity for hunting and gives very limited number of tags. I Would be in favor of a draw only and do away with the general hunt all together. Late archery season and muzzle loader is very stressful on pregnant mommas. The list goes on and on.
Post by: jagermiester on June 26, 2017, 01:38:36 PM
It's luck no matter what. You can draw a quality deer tag with no points it's possible, not plausible but possible. The more time I spend on this site the more I think most people on it are wolves in sheep's clothing. It's not fair I didn't get my trophy, sounds like something a lefty would say. :'( You wanna shoot a big bull go to Montana but you better put your big boy pants on cause it's still work.
Post by: jagermiester on June 26, 2017, 02:02:20 PM