Post by: fishnfur on March 22, 2018, 09:37:10 PM
Post by: Rainstorm Hunter on March 22, 2018, 09:40:15 PM
Post by: W_Ellison2011 on March 22, 2018, 10:05:48 PM
Just nine days left to submit an application for MS Deer (and elk, if you're feeling lucky).I just put in for my MS elk today lol! I completely forgot about it until today... then was reading the forum and the light bulb flickered on. Messaged all my buddies to remind them as well!
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 23, 2018, 04:50:52 AM
Post by: Killmore on March 23, 2018, 07:33:51 AM
Post by: XJcoug13 on March 23, 2018, 09:38:24 AM
Post by: highside74 on March 23, 2018, 10:02:12 AM
Don't remind people, it hurts your odds.
:yeah:
Post by: doubletall on March 28, 2018, 05:39:19 PM
Post by: Oh Mah on March 28, 2018, 06:04:33 PM
Post by: doubletall on March 28, 2018, 06:12:48 PM
I'm not sure i understand this :yeah:
Apparently its the same as a special hunt application. You have to buy the permit then go back and select the specific hunt you want. Seems kind of ridiculous because in the case of the multi season deer there is only one selection.
I bought mine online. If you buy it at a vendor it’s probably not an issue.
Post by: Oh Mah on March 28, 2018, 06:21:21 PM
Post by: emac on March 28, 2018, 06:30:42 PM
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Post by: doubletall on March 28, 2018, 07:17:24 PM
If you buy but dot submit it you are automatically in. The option is really only for points if you dont wanna draw but build points
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Thanks, good to know.
Post by: pd on March 28, 2018, 07:29:35 PM
Just nine days left to submit an application for MS Deer (and elk, if you're feeling lucky).
Thanks. Bought both in December. Feel like I’m getting old waiting for the draw!
Is it camping/hunting/funning season yet??
Post by: fishnfur on March 29, 2018, 11:15:19 PM
Post by: Rainier10 on March 30, 2018, 07:34:04 AM
If you buy but dot submit it you are automatically in. The option is really only for points if you dont wanna draw but build pointsI had to log on and go to special permits and then either choose points option or click on multiseason and submit it. :dunno:
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Post by: Bob33 on March 30, 2018, 08:06:31 AM
If you hadn't it would have been automatically submitted.If you buy but dot submit it you are automatically in. The option is really only for points if you dont wanna draw but build pointsI had to log on and go to special permits and then either choose points option or click on multiseason and submit it. :dunno:
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Post by: Rainier10 on March 30, 2018, 09:15:06 AM
:tup: Good to know, I didn't want to risk it.If you hadn't it would have been automatically submitted.If you buy but dot submit it you are automatically in. The option is really only for points if you dont wanna draw but build pointsI had to log on and go to special permits and then either choose points option or click on multiseason and submit it. :dunno:
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Post by: Bob33 on March 30, 2018, 09:23:56 AM
Post by: Oh Mah on March 30, 2018, 09:28:30 AM
Post by: Oh Mah on March 30, 2018, 09:59:46 AM
Post by: Oh Mah on March 30, 2018, 10:10:39 AM
WITH 1000 tags and 14000 applicants you have about a 7%chance of drawing.
How much does this % rise with each point you have?
Post by: trophyhunt on March 30, 2018, 10:21:07 AM
Post by: Stein on March 30, 2018, 10:33:05 AM
I've always thought i was pretty good with math but i'm stumped.Anyone.
WITH 1000 tags and 14000 applicants you have about a 7%chance of drawing.
How much does this % rise with each point you have?
You would need to lookup how many points each of the other applicants has and then square them. Then, you take all of your points squared as well as the number of tags and do a ton of math where you add up all the chances you will draw a random number low enough to draw a tag. In other words, it is a ton of work to get to your true odds.
Post by: Oh Mah on March 30, 2018, 10:38:31 AM
Post by: Bob33 on March 30, 2018, 11:06:38 AM
Post by: Oh Mah on March 30, 2018, 12:49:18 PM
Post by: Magnum_Willys on March 30, 2018, 02:48:02 PM
In 2017 there were 12,817 applications for 1,000 multi-season elk permits. The average applicant had 3.23 points. There were 133,604 “names in the hat”. You can get a somewhat accurate estimate of draw odds by squaring your points, dividing by 133,604, and multiplying by 1,000.How did you calculate “names in the hat”???
Post by: Bob33 on March 30, 2018, 02:56:00 PM
This gives the number of applicants with each point level.
You need to square the points and multiply them times the number of applicants for each level, and then sum them.
For example, the data shows that two applicants had 11 points. Each had 121 names in the hat (11x11). Multiplying 11 times the 2 applicants means that applicants with 11 points had a total of 242 names “in the hat”.
I copy the data, paste it into Excel, and do the math.
Post by: bearpaw on March 30, 2018, 03:19:39 PM
Post by: Oh Mah on March 30, 2018, 03:32:54 PM
The data comes from this site: https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2017.phpWith these numbers are the group numbers taken into account already?This chart really shows how the odds drop with the more points you have. :yike:looks like 4 points is the best place to be.
This gives the number of applicants with each point level.
You need to square the points and multiply them times the number of applicants for each level, and then sum them.
For example, the data shows that two applicants had 11 points. Each had 121 names in the hat (11x11). Multiplying 11 times the 2 applicants means that applicants with 11 points had a total of 242 names “in the hat”.
I copy the data, paste it into Excel, and do the math.
Post by: Bob33 on March 30, 2018, 03:59:56 PM
Post by: Oh Mah on March 30, 2018, 04:03:12 PM
Post by: W_Ellison2011 on March 30, 2018, 04:44:55 PM
except there is only 242 names in the hat with 11 points and over 24k in the hat with just 4 points.odds are in favor of the people with 4 points.I don't think you are getting the math. The guys with 11 points still have a higher % chance of being draw due to the fact that there names are on more cards in the hat than any other individual. Now the odds of being drawn in the groups of 3, 4, and 5 points are high but that's only because of how many people applied in with those point groups. Its an algorithm to be honest. Reason being is that every time someone from one of the groups the number changes and thus the chances change. Its a pain in the ass to figure out especially since you don't know which names are drawn and how many points they had. Good news though.. I foresee it being the same as the past 2-3 years where they end up selling a bunch over the counter. Only issue with that is they sell them out within 5 minutes for elk. Deer I could have picked one up a couple weeks after they sold otc!
Post by: Oh Mah on March 30, 2018, 05:06:56 PM
Post by: Ghost Hunter on March 30, 2018, 06:01:26 PM
except there is only 242 names in the hat with 11 points and over 24k in the hat with just 4 points.odds are in favor of the people with 4 points.I don't think you are getting the math. The guys with 11 points still have a higher % chance of being draw due to the fact that there names are on more cards in the hat than any other individual. Now the odds of being drawn in the groups of 3, 4, and 5 points are high but that's only because of how many people applied in with those point groups. Its an algorithm to be honest. Reason being is that every time someone from one of the groups the number changes and thus the chances change. Its a pain in the ass to figure out especially since you don't know which names are drawn and how many points they had. Good news though.. I foresee it being the same as the past 2-3 years where they end up selling a bunch over the counter. Only issue with that is they sell them out within 5 minutes for elk. Deer I could have picked one up a couple weeks after they sold otc!
There was a few over 50 MS elk tags left over last year that sold out in a few seconds. (Think about every vender pushing a button at the same moment.) I got one of them. It took about 15 minutes for the system to grind them out.
Post by: W_Ellison2011 on March 30, 2018, 06:08:57 PM
Tell me if I'm wrong but they let anyone buy them at that point right?except there is only 242 names in the hat with 11 points and over 24k in the hat with just 4 points.odds are in favor of the people with 4 points.I don't think you are getting the math. The guys with 11 points still have a higher % chance of being draw due to the fact that there names are on more cards in the hat than any other individual. Now the odds of being drawn in the groups of 3, 4, and 5 points are high but that's only because of how many people applied in with those point groups. Its an algorithm to be honest. Reason being is that every time someone from one of the groups the number changes and thus the chances change. Its a pain in the ass to figure out especially since you don't know which names are drawn and how many points they had. Good news though.. I foresee it being the same as the past 2-3 years where they end up selling a bunch over the counter. Only issue with that is they sell them out within 5 minutes for elk. Deer I could have picked one up a couple weeks after they sold otc!
There was a few over 50 MS elk tags left over last year that sold out in a few seconds. (Think about every vender pushing a button at the same moment.) I got one of them. It took about 15 minutes for the system to grind them out.
Post by: Oh Mah on March 30, 2018, 06:11:53 PM
Post by: Ghost Hunter on March 30, 2018, 06:22:32 PM
only people that applied. tick - tock:yeah:
Post by: trophyhunt on March 30, 2018, 06:32:16 PM
I WISH IT WAS: BUY TAG FOR MULTI WITHOUT BUYING LICENSE IF DRAWN DRAWN ALREADY PAID FOR.REIMBURSE THE REST.PUT IN FOR ALL SPECIAL HUNT PERMITS AND BUY OTHER LICENSES NEEDED FOR SEASON AFTER MULTI SEASON DRAW.why are you yelling at us????? :chuckle:
Post by: Oh Mah on March 30, 2018, 06:42:06 PM
Post by: Oh Mah on March 30, 2018, 06:43:13 PM
Post by: Recon on March 31, 2018, 09:17:31 AM
Post by: trophyhunt on March 31, 2018, 10:41:47 AM
Does anyone know how long after today before they post the results?If I remember right it should only be a couple weeks.
Post by: Oh Mah on March 31, 2018, 11:10:09 AM
Post by: Recon on March 31, 2018, 10:36:06 PM