Post by: Mr Mykiss on May 01, 2019, 12:45:46 PM
2806 Peaches Ridge Rifle
2017 (110) 2018 (61) 2019 (13)
20 points 25.53% 12.1% 2.43%
15 points 14.36% 7.0% 1.38%
10 points 6.38% 3.2% 0.6%
5 points 1.59% 0.8% 0.15%
**Tag numbers in parenthesis
Post by: blackpowderhunter on May 01, 2019, 12:50:34 PM
Post by: boneaddict on May 01, 2019, 12:56:19 PM
Post by: Stein on May 01, 2019, 01:42:35 PM
I have been looking at the archery and muzzie odds in that unit (quality). I did draw the rifle tag and had a great hunt. Not 2% draw odds great, but a good hunt none the less.
Post by: Mr Mykiss on May 01, 2019, 02:47:07 PM
Did you adjust for the change in tag numbers between 2018 and 2019?If I didn’t adjust the tag numbers why would the odds have changed?
Post by: HntnFsh on May 01, 2019, 02:56:50 PM
Post by: Pegasus on May 01, 2019, 02:58:40 PM
Did you adjust for the change in tag numbers between 2018 and 2019?If I didn’t adjust the tag numbers why would the odds have changed?
Your assumptions are all wrong cuz after listening to all the griping and how everyone is going to hunt out of state there should only be four people applying for the hunt this year.
Post by: slowhand on May 01, 2019, 03:03:46 PM
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 01, 2019, 03:50:54 PM
Been playing the point game across multiple states for almost 25 years, I've had some amazing hunts during that time but the current direction of things is the wrong way for sure. Not just WA but across the west, more and more folks playing the game and fewer and fewer tags...........
Post by: bowhunterforever on May 01, 2019, 03:55:46 PM
Post by: vandeman17 on May 01, 2019, 03:58:05 PM
Its pretty depressing actually. I don't know what else to say really.
Been playing the point game across multiple states for almost 25 years, I've had some amazing hunts during that time but the current direction of things is the wrong way for sure. Not just WA but across the west, more and more folks playing the game and fewer and fewer tags...........
:yeah: We complain about WA but many other states are getting harder and harder to draw permits. The benefit many of them have and the reason I go elsewhere is that their OTC hunts can be and are often just as good if not better than many of WA's quality tags. :twocents:
Post by: slowhand on May 01, 2019, 04:01:49 PM
Good point. Never thought of it like that.Its pretty depressing actually. I don't know what else to say really.
Been playing the point game across multiple states for almost 25 years, I've had some amazing hunts during that time but the current direction of things is the wrong way for sure. Not just WA but across the west, more and more folks playing the game and fewer and fewer tags...........
:yeah: We complain about WA but many other states are getting harder and harder to draw permits. The benefit many of them have and the reason I go elsewhere is that their OTC hunts can be and are often just as good if not better than many of WA's quality tags. :twocents:
Post by: brew on May 01, 2019, 05:45:16 PM
Post by: Dan-o on May 01, 2019, 05:58:38 PM
I don't have a degree in statistics but am smart enough to know if you don't apply your chances are 0%. Not trying to be "that guy" but in 2006 I applied for a special hunt moose permit with 1 point and got drawn. it can be done
You!
It was YOU!!!!
YOU are the one that got my moose tag!!!
I knew it......
Post by: Bullkllr on May 01, 2019, 06:07:58 PM
How
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o
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o
o
o
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?
Post by: carlyoungs on May 01, 2019, 06:51:57 PM
Post by: CarbonHunter on May 01, 2019, 07:39:33 PM
I play every year. The way I look at it is it the same as my wife and I going to the casino for a night. $400 dollars and I have a chance. I have drawn some sort of tag every year for the past 3 years . That is cheap entertainment for me. Hopefully I draw a branched bull tag this year. If not maybe Idaho. Only 600 bucks.
Good point because every time people visit a tribal casino and give them the $400 they in turn give fuel to a tribal member to go kill another trophy animal. Technically giving the $400 to a tribal casino isn’t the same but it actually reduces your chance of getting a tag in the future because a tribal member took another critter with your money. Just an idea to ponder.
Post by: Bullkllr on May 01, 2019, 07:44:20 PM
I play every year. The way I look at it is it the same as my wife and I going to the casino for a night. $400 dollars and I have a chance. I have drawn some sort of tag every year for the past 3 years . That is cheap entertainment for me. Hopefully I draw a branched bull tag this year. If not maybe Idaho. Only 600 bucks.Good point because every time people visit a tribal casino and give them the $400 they in turn give fuel to a tribal member to go kill another trophy animal. Technically giving the $400 to a tribal casino isn’t the same but it actually reduces your chance of getting a tag in the future because a tribal member took another critter with your money. Just an idea to ponder.
Around here it's more likely they just use it to buy the woods...so...
Post by: Stein on May 01, 2019, 07:51:35 PM
Did you adjust for the change in tag numbers between 2018 and 2019?If I didn’t adjust the tag numbers why would the odds have changed?
More people applying and squaring the points. The odds go down even if the tags stay the same. Too many people with a ton of points.
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Post by: sagerat on May 01, 2019, 07:55:29 PM
I play every year. The way I look at it is it the same as my wife and I going to the casino for a night. $400 dollars and I have a chance. I have drawn some sort of tag every year for the past 3 years . That is cheap entertainment for me. Hopefully I draw a branched bull tag this year. If not maybe Idaho. Only 600 bucks.
Good point because every time people visit a tribal casino and give them the $400 they in turn give fuel to a tribal member to go kill another trophy animal. Technically giving the $400 to a tribal casino isn’t the same but it actually reduces your chance of getting a tag in the future because a tribal member took another critter with your money. Just an idea to ponder.
:yeah: do not donate to that circus
Post by: CarbonHunter on May 02, 2019, 06:23:31 PM
I play every year. The way I look at it is it the same as my wife and I going to the casino for a night. $400 dollars and I have a chance. I have drawn some sort of tag every year for the past 3 years . That is cheap entertainment for me. Hopefully I draw a branched bull tag this year. If not maybe Idaho. Only 600 bucks.Good point because every time people visit a tribal casino and give them the $400 they in turn give fuel to a tribal member to go kill another trophy animal. Technically giving the $400 to a tribal casino isn’t the same but it actually reduces your chance of getting a tag in the future because a tribal member took another critter with your money. Just an idea to ponder.
Around here it's more likely they just use it to buy the woods...so...
Yep buy the land here then jump the crest and kill the elk. I’ve seen it with my own eyes.
Post by: Igottanewknee on May 03, 2019, 11:17:07 AM
I don't have a degree in statistics but am smart enough to know if you don't apply your chances are 0%. Not trying to be "that guy" but in 2006 I applied for a special hunt moose permit with 1 point and got drawn. it can be doneNow there's a s-ton of us that hate you all of the sudden. And I'm sure you're a nice guy. >:(
Post by: Bango skank on May 03, 2019, 11:25:58 AM
I don't have a degree in statistics but am smart enough to know if you don't apply your chances are 0%. Not trying to be "that guy" but in 2006 I applied for a special hunt moose permit with 1 point and got drawn. it can be doneNow there's a s-ton of us that hate you all of the sudden. And I'm sure you're a nice guy. >:(
Now add in 13 years of point creep
Post by: Rainier10 on May 03, 2019, 11:59:57 AM
WDFW purposefully created the problem. They needed more revenue. People were only buying applications on the years that they were available to hunt. Some people hunt here every year no matter what. Others have vacations, weddings, out of state hunts or whatever come up and don't hunt here or put in for special permits every year. By rolling points over they knew even on years that you couldn't hunt you wouldn't want to lose ground so you buy the application and put in for points only. It had nothing to do with giving people better odds, it doesn't, but it does generate more revenue because people buy the application every year whether they can hunt or not.Did you adjust for the change in tag numbers between 2018 and 2019?If I didn’t adjust the tag numbers why would the odds have changed?
More people applying and squaring the points. The odds go down even if the tags stay the same. Too many people with a ton of points.
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Post by: boneaddict on May 03, 2019, 01:21:31 PM
Post by: CarbonHunter on May 04, 2019, 07:00:21 AM
WDFW purposefully created the problem. They needed more revenue. People were only buying applications on the years that they were available to hunt. Some people hunt here every year no matter what. Others have vacations, weddings, out of state hunts or whatever come up and don't hunt here or put in for special permits every year. By rolling points over they knew even on years that you couldn't hunt you wouldn't want to lose ground so you buy the application and put in for points only. It had nothing to do with giving people better odds, it doesn't, but it does generate more revenue because people buy the application every year whether they can hunt or not.Did you adjust for the change in tag numbers between 2018 and 2019?If I didn’t adjust the tag numbers why would the odds have changed?
More people applying and squaring the points. The odds go down even if the tags stay the same. Too many people with a ton of points.
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This isn’t what the state was thinking when they created the new draw system in the 90’s. The problem is they didn’t think it through at the time. This system was developed to replace the old system of no points but if you applied you were penalized by loosing days during the general season.
When the state went to spike only east, 3 point or better west and 3 point for mule deer along with eliminating the late mule deer hunt people were outraged. In order to calm people down they created this system and it worked fine until people who were holding out for quality tags complained they weren’t able to draw a cow without loosing their points. Then the state created the category mess we have now and that’s when the revenue storm began.
Keep in mind when this began you only bought one application for each species and there was plenty of tags to draw. Often doe and cow tags had more tags then applications so if you wanted a tag you could get one, maybe not the tag you wanted but you could get a tag.
Post by: sagerat on May 04, 2019, 07:21:27 AM
I remember those days. Odds of drawing a bull tag were way better because a ton of guys applied for cow tags. Wish we could go back!
Post by: CarbonHunter on May 04, 2019, 07:30:20 AM
We could go back if everyone would stop saying “there’s no going back” but there would be some people with a lot of points when you add all their categories for a species back into one application for a species.
Post by: Stein on May 04, 2019, 07:45:08 AM
That’s one reason we can’t go back.
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Post by: sagerat on May 04, 2019, 07:50:10 AM
We would also need to go back to when there were many more tags and much fewer applicants.
That’s one reason we can’t go back.
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I disagree. Yes we do have fewer permits and more people but it would still help draw odds.
Post by: JimmyHoffa on May 04, 2019, 08:18:42 AM
Post by: Stein on May 04, 2019, 08:31:22 AM
We would also need to go back to when there were many more tags and much fewer applicants.
That’s one reason we can’t go back.
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I disagree. Yes we do have fewer permits and more people but it would still help draw odds.
It's just math. We can go back to the old system, but it won't resemble the old results. If you have 3 tags and 500 people applying, you can rig any system you want and there are still going to be 497 people that don't draw. With the number of applicants and tags we have this year, it really doesn't matter what system they use.
Post by: sagerat on May 04, 2019, 08:44:26 AM
Post by: CarbonHunter on May 05, 2019, 07:44:48 AM
I agree it’s not the big solution but only having an “elk” or “deer” category would be better for draw odds. Rather than having my name in 4 different elk draws this year it would only be in 1 and I sure wouldn’t be putting down Antlerless choices.. Other guys would rather have a cow tag more often and would go that route...
This is the key factor, as of right now you have 14 choices for your 4 categories. If you only had 4 choices like you did under the old system there would be an instant reduction in the amount of applicants for each tag.
Post by: CarbonHunter on May 05, 2019, 07:48:19 AM
Post by: Fletch on May 05, 2019, 07:26:42 PM
Post by: CarbonHunter on May 05, 2019, 07:43:46 PM
Could also go back to paying upfront for oil tags.
:yeah: it would help as well!
Post by: Mr Mykiss on May 05, 2019, 08:31:58 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on May 05, 2019, 08:38:25 PM
Please don’t give people the impression that these kinds of numbers could be due solely to squaring points.Did you adjust for the change in tag numbers between 2018 and 2019?If I didn’t adjust the tag numbers why would the odds have changed?
More people applying and squaring the points. The odds go down even if the tags stay the same. Too many people with a ton of points.
Post by: Stein on May 05, 2019, 09:19:14 PM
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Post by: Fletch on May 05, 2019, 10:00:27 PM
Post by: dvolmer on May 06, 2019, 09:54:46 AM
Post by: asmith on May 06, 2019, 10:14:37 AM
Post by: Slow-1 on May 07, 2019, 06:00:21 AM
Post by: huntnnw on May 07, 2019, 06:31:42 AM
Post by: Bullkllr on May 07, 2019, 07:51:54 AM
Little off subject do you guys think an elk tag that's is more than say 100 to 1 to get IE 5 tags 600 people want (take the points out to make the math simple) should be a once in a life time? If our drawn you can't put in for that tag again? I know total hypothetical, because the WDFW will never do, because of loss of revenue. Just thinking out loud.No.
That would be a heck of a precedent. Would it have to cover all "Quality" and/or "Bull" tags to even make sense? Otherwise those that drew one OIL elk would simply apply for the next one on the list the next year.
The OILs should be reserved for those species that are very limited in range and could never sustain a general season. I suppose if the elk population continues the present trend we could get there; hopefully after I'm done because that would be a very sorry thing.
Post by: jeffitz on May 07, 2019, 08:10:45 AM
Post by: slowhand on May 07, 2019, 08:36:05 AM
Not what GMU, I know people don't want to share that.
Example
Mine
I have put in on and off for 10 years+
Muzzle loader cow tag 5 points
Modern Doe tag 4 points
Modern any bull (peaches) had to add location to that one :chuckle: 5 points
Modern Cow tag 5 points
2nd Deer tag 3 points
That's My luck and experience. How about You guys. Share Your pain and success.
Post by: Slow-1 on May 07, 2019, 08:54:37 AM
Here is a prime example ” I have benefited from the any bull tags I won’t complain... but... drawn in 2002 2005 2010 2017 so a pattern has formed 3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs so I can expect to maybe get drawn in 9 yrs now”
Every time someone draws another tag in a hard to get area some else doesn’t get a tag.
Post by: BeerBugler on May 07, 2019, 09:09:14 AM
Peaches archery the year BEFORE the big split (2008)?
Mountainview archery
White river modern
Deer-
Tucannon Muzzle
(3) second deer tags
Bear-
(3) spring bear NE
OIL- ..........this year!
Post by: Magnum_Willys on May 07, 2019, 09:09:53 AM
Post by: JimmyHoffa on May 07, 2019, 09:39:27 AM
Ok I’m good with any elk tag that has greater than 100 to 1 odds you get one in a life time.Or 11 years if the pattern is always prime numbers. >:(
Here is a prime example ” I have benefited from the any bull tags I won’t complain... but... drawn in 2002 2005 2010 2017 so a pattern has formed 3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs so I can expect to maybe get drawn in 9 yrs now”
Every time someone draws another tag in a hard to get area some else doesn’t get a tag.
Post by: Stein on May 07, 2019, 09:43:12 AM
Post by: Slow-1 on May 07, 2019, 09:54:03 AM
If it was up to me you would purchase one application for say $50.00. That had one slot for a single hunt, be that deer, elk sheep, goat, moose. That way you could apply for what you really want.
Post by: SuperX on May 07, 2019, 09:56:28 AM
:twocents:
Post by: boneaddict on May 07, 2019, 09:59:39 AM
I understand this will never happen do to loss of revenue. I'm just pointing out that some people beats the odds way more than most.
If it was up to me you would purchase one application for say $50.00. That had one slot for a single hunt, be that deer, elk sheep, goat, moose. That way you could apply for what you really want.
You mean like IDAHO!
Post by: slowhand on May 07, 2019, 10:01:52 AM
offering more opportunity?
Post by: SuperX on May 07, 2019, 10:05:33 AM
Is there zero chance that animal numbers will increase in the future?the past informs the future
offering more opportunity?
Post by: Stein on May 07, 2019, 10:07:36 AM
Is there zero chance that animal numbers will increase in the future?
offering more opportunity?
No, but long term trends are hard to buck. Those trends are fewer animals (and tags) and more people applying. Either could change, but that is simply hoping on a good luck streak - which pretty much sums up the plan the department has in place.
Post by: slowhand on May 07, 2019, 10:12:10 AM
The good old days scenario? :(
Well lets get those Deer and Elk hatcheries build as soon as possible. I have three boys that have yet to harvest an animal.
Post by: Stein on May 07, 2019, 10:16:57 AM
Post by: slowhand on May 07, 2019, 10:28:37 AM
He had a couple chances but He's a kid and took to long to take the shot. I do think I was successful in getting him hooked on hunting. The youngest wants nothing to do with it. I'm not the kind of Dad to force the issue. I ask him every year to go on just one trip with Me. No thanks is the response I get every time. He's 15
The oldest went into the Marine Corp right after high school and is currently deployed in some horrible place that He can't tell us about. He also had a couple chances at Deer in 510 when He was 16 and 17. One that was only foiled By the fact He forgot to take the safty off. Not a mistake in My book.
I still hold out hope to see each one take a deer and an elk.
Post by: Slow-1 on May 07, 2019, 10:52:57 AM
Post by: jeffitz on May 07, 2019, 03:14:49 PM
Post by: X-Force on May 07, 2019, 04:00:51 PM
Youth tags are still decent, with kids dropping out when they turn 16, it naturally prevents point creep beyond a certain level. If the department doesn't drop youth tags, it should stay pretty good.
They dropped all but 1 youth moose tag :chuckle:
Post by: HillHound on May 07, 2019, 04:08:04 PM
Post by: Stein on May 07, 2019, 04:25:29 PM
Post by: bobcat on May 07, 2019, 06:16:55 PM
Post by: Limhangerslayer on May 07, 2019, 06:38:06 PM
Not sure why they would strip the kids of even having a chance. I would rather see the cow tags taken from the regular hunt application. Makes me think twice about even giving them the $3.80 for my sons youth moose permit. It really seems like they kept the category just to collect fees. One tag available is a slap in the face.ya, strictly a money grab. They make more money when they hey adults to buy yah versus a youth
Post by: sagerat on May 07, 2019, 07:33:35 PM
Not sure why they would strip the kids of even having a chance. I would rather see the cow tags taken from the regular hunt application. Makes me think twice about even giving them the $3.80 for my sons youth moose permit. It really seems like they kept the category just to collect fees. One tag available is a slap in the face.ya, strictly a money grab. They make more money when they hey adults to buy yah versus a youth
Yeah, I’m not applying my boys. They should’ve just eliminated the category in my opinion.
Post by: Bangflop on May 07, 2019, 09:56:53 PM
Would be nice if I die before I get to hunt anything good maybe I could pass them on to one of my children or grandchildren. I did pay for them and it clearly says your points on line.
Post by: bobcat on May 07, 2019, 10:09:14 PM
Not to mention if you don’t live long enough to draw a tag. Our state Takes the point you payed for. 🤬
Would be nice if I die before I get to hunt anything good maybe I could pass them on to one of my children or grandchildren. I did pay for them and it clearly says your points on line.
That would make the problem worse.
Post by: Stein on May 07, 2019, 10:57:21 PM
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Post by: DOUBLELUNG on May 08, 2019, 11:48:40 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190508/e4e96eebbb308c4786521402b793a22a.jpg)Bingo
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Post by: BULLBLASTER on May 08, 2019, 12:22:47 PM
Not to mention if you don’t live long enough to draw a tag. Our state Takes the point you payed for. 🤬
Would be nice if I die before I get to hunt anything good maybe I could pass them on to one of my children or grandchildren. I did pay for them and it clearly says your points on line.
You are right you applied for a permit and received a point to increase YOUR odds in future years. There was never any promise that anyone else would benefit from that. You haven’t applied for your tags to increase your child or grandchild’s odds. :twocents: if you would like your children or grandchildren to benefit from your points then apply as a group with them.
Post by: WSU on May 08, 2019, 12:27:43 PM
Not to mention if you don’t live long enough to draw a tag. Our state Takes the point you payed for. 🤬
Would be nice if I die before I get to hunt anything good maybe I could pass them on to one of my children or grandchildren. I did pay for them and it clearly says your points on line.
You are right you applied for a permit and received a point to increase YOUR odds in future years. There was never any promise that anyone else would benefit from that. You haven’t applied for your tags to increase your child or grandchild’s odds. :twocents: if you would like your children or grandchildren to benefit from your points then apply as a group with them.
Or put your money in a college savings plan so your grand kids can afford college. That way, they'll make enough money to buy an out of state elk tag and they'll actually get to go elk hunting!
Post by: walleye1 on May 08, 2019, 01:57:00 PM
Post by: CarbonHunter on May 08, 2019, 08:26:53 PM
Post by: Timberstalker on May 09, 2019, 05:08:50 AM
I’m 21 points deep on most categories - I don’t expect to draw any of the quality tags and really don’t have hope in OIL. But it’s the system we have and it’s an opportunity I am not going to pass.
Post by: polishstunner on May 09, 2019, 06:52:37 AM
Everyone there seems to like it. They have the same pt structure as us, but seems to have a better managed herd as well.
Post by: msg on May 19, 2019, 07:50:44 PM
Post by: D-Rock425 on May 24, 2019, 01:08:27 PM
My daughter has 9 youth moose points and I didn't put her in for the 1 tag. I did put her in for the bull tags and the regular antlerless tags. But the youth category is a joke with only one tag.it is a joke but it's only 3 dollars for a chance to draw.
Post by: bobcat on May 24, 2019, 01:14:25 PM
My daughter has 9 youth moose points and I didn't put her in for the 1 tag. I did put her in for the bull tags and the regular antlerless tags. But the youth category is a joke with only one tag.it is a joke but it's only 3 dollars for a chance to draw.
I know it's only $3 but it's not about the money. In 2017 there were 18 youth moose permits. Approximately 1,800 applicants, for odds of 1 in 100. Now, only 1 youth permit. Same number of applicants, so odds of 1 in 1800. Maybe I'll buy her a couple raffle tickets instead.
Post by: Bango skank on May 24, 2019, 01:17:20 PM
My daughter has 9 youth moose points and I didn't put her in for the 1 tag. I did put her in for the bull tags and the regular antlerless tags. But the youth category is a joke with only one tag.it is a joke but it's only 3 dollars for a chance to draw.
I know it's only $3 but it's not about the money. In 2017 there were 18 youth moose permits. Approximately 1,800 applicants, for odds of 1 in 100. Now, only 1 youth permit. Same number of applicants, so odds of 1 in 1800. Maybe I'll buy her a couple raffle tickets instead.
Im all for youth hunting opportunities, but 18 cow moose permits for youth? Im glad they cut it. I personally dont think there should be any antlerless moose permits unless we get our predators firmly under control. All of them. Wolves, bears, lions. All moose killers.
Post by: bobcat on May 24, 2019, 01:23:05 PM
My daughter has 9 youth moose points and I didn't put her in for the 1 tag. I did put her in for the bull tags and the regular antlerless tags. But the youth category is a joke with only one tag.it is a joke but it's only 3 dollars for a chance to draw.
I know it's only $3 but it's not about the money. In 2017 there were 18 youth moose permits. Approximately 1,800 applicants, for odds of 1 in 100. Now, only 1 youth permit. Same number of applicants, so odds of 1 in 1800. Maybe I'll buy her a couple raffle tickets instead.
Im all for youth hunting opportunities, but 18 cow moose permits for youth? Im glad they cut it. I personally dont think there should be any antlerless moose permits unless we get our predators firmly under control. All of them. Wolves, bears, lions. All moose killers.
I don't have a problem with them cutting the tags. But what I find ridiculous is still having one tag, so they can continue selling applications in the youth moose category. They should just do away entirely with that category.
In fact, IMO there should only be one category- MOOSE. Bull tags and cow tags all in the same pool. And draw a cow moose tag and that should be your once in a lifetime moose.
Post by: Bango skank on May 24, 2019, 01:25:26 PM
Post by: msg on May 26, 2019, 08:33:20 AM
Post by: HillHound on May 26, 2019, 09:07:15 AM