Post by: psr81 on October 26, 2019, 07:07:28 PM
In the full data set, what are the two columns for?
https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-09/2019%20Quality%20Elk%20drawing%20results%20by%20hunt%20number.pdf
And then, how come the data doesn’t tie out? For example, for Upper Smith Creek WA Bull, it says average points was 4 but if you look at the table in the PDF as well as the complete results it says 14.5. https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/special-hunts/results/elk#
What am I missing? Thanks!
Post by: Gobble Doc on October 26, 2019, 07:13:01 PM
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Post by: Bob33 on October 26, 2019, 07:13:23 PM
Hello All - Trying to understand how to decipher WDFW special hunt results.Which two columns are you asking about?
In the full data set, what are the two columns for?
https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-09/2019%20Quality%20Elk%20drawing%20results%20by%20hunt%20number.pdf
And then, how come the data doesn’t tie out? For example, for Upper Smith Creek WA Bull, it says average points was 4 but if you look at the table in the PDF as well as the complete results it says 14.5. https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/special-hunts/results/elk#
What am I missing? Thanks!
Post by: psr81 on October 27, 2019, 03:32:58 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on October 27, 2019, 03:43:09 PM
Do you understand that it's a bonus point squared system, not a preference point system?
Do you have any idea what the individual odds are for being selected?
You said that you wanted to understand points...that's why I'm asking :)
Post by: psr81 on October 27, 2019, 03:53:13 PM
When selected applicants is more than applicants selected it means that one or more group applications were selected.
Do you understand that it's a bonus point squared system, not a preference point system?
Do you have any idea what the individual odds are for being selected?
You said that you wanted to understand points...that's why I'm asking :)
Thanks. I was curious about why the Avg Points is the regulation pamphlet doesnt match the data. For a special hunt, it will list avg points of say 4, but the data says something much larger. Smith Creek Western Archery Bull Elk is an example. And then, in the data (pdf), why there are two columns with the same data that often repeats itself but sometimes doesn’t. I generally have a handle on everything else.
Post by: Mr Mykiss on October 27, 2019, 04:18:51 PM
Post by: Stein on October 27, 2019, 06:11:07 PM
Ignore Average Points, that is a gimmick to get you to buy. Just like the lottery where average tickets for the winner is near 1.
The more difficult the tag is to draw (or the fewer the tags) the less credibility to average points.
Many people see that number, look at their points and get disappointed for a lifetime.
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Post by: Mr Mykiss on October 27, 2019, 06:18:56 PM
Post by: Bob33 on October 27, 2019, 07:50:32 PM
Average points in the pamphlet are misleading at best. Assume there is one permit available with 100 applications. 99 of the applicants have 10 points, and the hundredth applicant has one point. If he draws the average in the pamphlet will list average points as one. If there were two permits, and the applicant with one point drew and another applicant with ten points drew the average points listed would be five. That number has virtually no bearing on draw odds.
Post by: Chesapeake on October 28, 2019, 11:03:28 AM
Doesn't mean the average person will draw when they have said number of points. Just means that by pure chance the average points of those applicants that were drawn happens to be said number.
Pretty useless statistic if you ask me.
The issue with the Washington draw system is that if they listed the actual chance of drawing they'd likely lose many customers.
For the Upper Smith creek WF tag on average about 800 people apply each year for 2 tags. You have way way way less than 1% chance of drawing. Odds are that if you put in every year for your 50 year hunting life, you'd never draw it. If the same 800 guys applied until they drew and no others entered it would only take 400 years for them to all get tags. :sry:
What you need to look at in the book is "# of tags" and "# of applicants". Calc that out and look for 10% or better odds of drawing. Maybe even 20% or better odds. Anything else is more or less a "Once in a lifetime" tag.
Per the books I have Upper Smith creek rifle bull:
2011: 9
2012: 8
2013:10
2014:11
2017:8
2018:12
2019:8
So, on average about 9.5 points will get you that tag, eventually. :dunno:
Post by: psr81 on October 28, 2019, 11:33:23 AM
Post by: Chesapeake on October 28, 2019, 12:32:22 PM
Washington draw odds are astronomical and only getting worse.
Post by: boneaddict on October 28, 2019, 12:48:40 PM
Post by: WapitiChaser on November 03, 2019, 05:58:23 PM
I would still go every year for the time with friends and family but it is frustrating to watch big bulls and cows stroll right in front of you. Heck, in 20 years we will be so overrun with elk, the state will have to pay YOU to go hunt them. Oh wait!?! That’s why we have the wolves....
In the meantime, keep funding the state and eating tag soup! One day your number is bound to come up!