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Big Game Hunting => Deer Hunting => Topic started by: sooperfly on December 01, 2019, 09:30:11 PM


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Title: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: sooperfly on December 01, 2019, 09:30:11 PM
(NOTE: Please see post # 38 on page 3 for the update!!!)

Digging into my stash'o stuff came across some interesting documents which included a map of the Twisp districts 1938 winter deer survey.  I've blurred out the deer count numbers in the red circles and replaced them with A,B,C,D for this first go-round.  (Will do more of the drainage's in the valley if there's interest.)

So, to be clear, your vote will be for the totals of the counts of A,B,C,D on this map. 
I'll have the poll up for 4 days, after that I'll post an original picture showing the counts in the red circles.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49156019516_3f953dce96_c.jpg)

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49172153612_cefabf1c29_c.jpg)

Here's the totals.  6,810

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49171921791_dcfde26417_b.jpg)
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: jstone on December 01, 2019, 09:55:30 PM
There summer numbers where probably more then than the winter counts now.
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: Dan-o on December 01, 2019, 10:06:54 PM
Cool.

This could be interesting.
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: Katmai Guy on December 01, 2019, 10:10:06 PM
Says winter counts in OP. :chuckle:
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: jagermiester on December 01, 2019, 10:21:06 PM
Interesting
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: boneaddict on December 02, 2019, 04:58:15 AM
38 was a little before my time so not sure of any natural phenomenon  but historically those areas were a huge winter range.
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: Skyvalhunter on December 02, 2019, 05:02:28 AM
 :yeah:
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: jagermiester on December 02, 2019, 06:06:57 AM
What is the most recent winter count?
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: MADMAX on December 02, 2019, 07:00:25 AM
Fitkin says down a bit

 :chuckle:


http://methowvalleynews.com/2018/12/26/wdfw-deer-survey-shows-methow-population-down-a-bit/
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: boneaddict on December 02, 2019, 07:07:12 AM
Only probably....
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: Jonathan_S on December 02, 2019, 07:19:46 AM
Only probably....

 Yup have to apply the correlation factors man to be sure
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: boneaddict on December 02, 2019, 07:34:32 AM
key words.....     extrapolates + estimates x factors = complete *censored* 
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: Bullkllr on December 02, 2019, 08:37:10 AM
What is the most recent winter count?

Three

(?)
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: Boss .300 winmag on December 02, 2019, 08:53:44 AM
This is the dumbest thing I’ve ever read about deer hunting. :yike:

 Fitkin said. “Our harvest pressure stays pretty consistent, but if there are less bucks on the landscape overall, hunters probably are going to take a higher percentage.”
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: hunter399 on December 02, 2019, 10:19:38 AM
That artical is the out of this world ,lets factor in deer that were not seeing. :tinfoil:
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: bigmacc on December 02, 2019, 04:17:22 PM


My dad was born in 33 so he was a little young to have remembered the late 30,s, although I do remember reading some of my great grandparents journals(ones that are ledgeable) and I seem to remember some time in the 1930,s there were a couple bad winters and over Thanksgiving they had only counted 700 or 900 come through a particular area over 4 days (:dunno:, hard to read) in a route about 16 miles to the north that would usually produce 2000-3000 over those 4 days, I,m going to role the dice and go with the 251-500 count, betting that 38 could be a year or two after one of those bad winters :dunno:........As far as that article, all I can say is wow, nothing was mentioned about his "specialty's" which is pretty much everything carnivore effecting this herd. Fawn numbers being down is blamed solely on fires which we all agree are a contributing factor and always have been but nothing is mentioned about his beloved bears and their population gain, which consider new born fawns a delicacy. Just sad knowing this will never change and will just keep getting worse, yes it will have peaks and valleys but remember the bar is so low now concerning this herd that any little tick up will be heralded as "the herd is doing great".
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: Bango skank on December 02, 2019, 05:32:59 PM


My dad was born in 33 so he was a little young to have remembered the late 30,s, although I do remember reading some of my great grandparents journals(ones that are ledgeable) and I seem to remember some time in the 1930,s there were a couple bad winters and over Thanksgiving they had only counted 700 or 900 come through a particular area over 4 days (:dunno:, hard to read) in a route about 16 miles to the north that would usually produce 2000-3000 over those 4 days, I,m going to role the dice and go with the 251-500 count, betting that 38 could be a year or two after one of those bad winters :dunno:........As far as that article, all I can say is wow, nothing was mentioned about his "specialty's" which is pretty much everything carnivore effecting this herd. Fawn numbers being down is blamed solely on fires which we all agree are a contributing factor and always have been but nothing is mentioned about his beloved bears and their population gain, which consider new born fawns a delicacy. Just sad knowing this will never change and will just keep getting worse, yes it will have peaks and valleys but remember the bar is so low now concerning this herd that any little tick up will be heralded as "the herd is doing great".

Did you email wdfw during the spring bear proposal planning about the need to open up spring bear hunts in the area?
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: bigmacc on December 02, 2019, 05:48:08 PM

No, my son did, this is about the extent of my technology, but trust me, every chance I get to talk with a WDFW employee that will listen, I talk :tup:, My dad did the same back in the 70,s and 80,s, it did a lot for the Methow herd, BUT, that was the Department of Game which I have stated many, many times.
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: blindluck on December 02, 2019, 06:00:41 PM
This is the dumbest thing I’ve ever read about deer hunting. :yike:

 Fitkin said. “Our harvest pressure stays pretty consistent, but if there are less bucks on the landscape overall, hunters probably are going to take a higher percentage.”
If I understand that correctly is he saying if there are two bucks on the mountain and one gets killed 50% of the herd was taken?
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: boneaddict on December 02, 2019, 06:05:20 PM
Quote
Did you email wdfw during the spring bear proposal planning about the need to open up spring bear hunts in the area?

I did
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: sooperfly on December 02, 2019, 06:49:15 PM
I realize this is only one year (map actually has figures for both 37 and 38 ) amongst many, so the numbers won't mean too much overall.  Would be better if I had at least a 10 year period of figures.  Also, this is around the depression time and it's possible a few more deer than normal were taken out of season.   :chuckle:

   
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: boneaddict on December 02, 2019, 06:53:10 PM
I saw photos of the snow levels from 37.   A moose would have had trouble.   Still looking forward to your numbers
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: ribka on December 02, 2019, 08:52:47 PM
:yeah:

your mailbox is full fyi
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: bigmacc on December 02, 2019, 09:05:20 PM
I saw photos of the snow levels from 37.   A moose would have had trouble.   Still looking forward to your numbers

That could have been what I was trying to decipher from the old journals bone, all I could read was "horrible Win@@@rs, 1@3&, many Fe4T of SNpw. That was what was on the paper, smeared and faded writing. I do remember dad saying there was some bad weather back in the mid-late 40,s that drew some "no spike shoots" for a few years but the only ones I can recall from the 30,s is what we have figured from the journals. I remember one year in the mid 60,s that was supposed to be a "down year", It was actually the year my dad killed that big non-typical that the Game Department came up to camp and weighed that went over 450. Not many deer that year but man the ones we killed were HUGE, if I remember right there were at least 5 or 6 bucks hanging on the pole that went over 400. The next winter was horrible, they figured thats why the deer were so big, one of the biggest winter kills in valley history actually,  and sadly. Seen it with my own eyes, deer, livestock and pets being bulldozed into piles, doused with diesel and a torch being set, seen nothing like it since, parts of the Methow were in the 40-60 below range, it happened within hours, a flash freeze.  The herd bounced back though, help from the Game Department, citizens and the state, take notes folks, thats when the herds were taken care of.
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: bigmacc on December 03, 2019, 11:23:34 AM
Fitkin says down a bit

 :chuckle:


http://methowvalleynews.com/2018/12/26/wdfw-deer-survey-shows-methow-population-down-a-bit/

The thing that keeps jumping out at me concerning this article is that they estimate the mule deer population to be around 47.000 running from the Canadian border to down around Yakima. Just to show a perspective on what has happened, the Methow herd ALONE back in the 60,s during its peak was at around 35,000-40,000, just the Methow herd! It hovered at around 25,000-30,000 until the predator boom and the switchover to the WDFW, I believe now the Methow herd is estimated at around 15,000-17,000 which pretty much everyone I know says is a total BS number and not even close which comes back to their problem of finding better ways of counting, just my suggestion, get out of your $500 an hour helicopters and do it the way they used to, get college kids and volunteers, park them in migration corridors the first couple weeks of November and count away, oh I forgot, those big migrations stopped happening in the Methow about 25 years ago :bash:, my bad, carry on...... We used to see a rig parked on the East Chewuch road every year, parked on the side of the road by where the big Cider outfit is now, just to the south of where Methow Valley Estates is now. It was usually a college kid sitting in the rig counting deer, hundreds would cross that road every day, thousands in a weeks time would cross the pavement there, head east up past the rifle range then hang a right and head towards Davis lake and spread out, some would stop there and others would continue farther south to set up camp for the winter, that also does not happen anymore, last time I seen it was back in the 80,s.
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: boneaddict on December 03, 2019, 12:36:18 PM
Yep! :yeah:
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: D Coates on December 03, 2019, 01:36:03 PM
Was told by a old timer not long ago the deer numbers were very low around that time due to some brutal winters could have been 40s?. Up toward bear creek there was a sign that fish and game had hung in the 90 s talking about the thriving migrating mule deer herd that at that time was estimated to be around 25,000. Todays numbers seem to be as low. The IQ of the people in charge of managing this seems to be very low as well. Just my observation very well could be wrong?
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: timberfaller on December 03, 2019, 02:05:12 PM
Having lived there for 35 years and had family members pioneers there(grandfather helped build the Wangner Mill).   I was lucky enough to have talked to those who lived and hunted back then.  They all said, there was really not to many deer in the whole valley until after WWII.  They told of finding a single set of tracks in the snow and following them for a couple of days "hoping" to come across the animal making the tracks.   So my vote was for the first choice.

I am glad I got to see the "herds" of Mule deer and the Whitetails come in to the valley back in the 70's and 80's and the elk herd in the 80's and early 90's.  But am sad to see the demise of those animals.  Greed was the main cause of their fall in numbers.  Greed by the Game department, now known as WDFW for sales of license and tags(thousands of doe tags) That is the only excuse for having years and years of doe tags, even after they said it would only last for a period of 3 years.  They never quit!!!!  Their "biologist" told them they needed to have a certain, "buck to doe ratio" so the response was harvest more does.  Problem they created was the "herd doe"(those who lead the herd back to their winter ranges)were wiped out.  I seen the "winter ranges" full of animals and I've seen winter ranges with NO animals or very few in them.  Why no or few animals? IMHO the leaders were gone, the new herd animals had no clue where they were.

Now, you'll never convince a "biologist"(at least I haven't met one yet) that, that, has happened.  I was a bit floored when I talked to an individual working for Fitkin studying the Methow herd and was told, "they didn't migrate that winter because of the mild winter"(2017).  Also that the herd(numbers)was in great shape :bash:  Gee, I wonder how that's working out! That same individual hadn't even read the early 1970's Mule Deer Study done by the Game Department. :o 

   
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: bigmacc on December 03, 2019, 02:48:38 PM
Having lived there for 35 years and had family members pioneers there(grandfather helped build the Wangner Mill).   I was lucky enough to have talked to those who lived and hunted back then.  They all said, there was really not to many deer in the whole valley until after WWII.  They told of finding a single set of tracks in the snow and following them for a couple of days "hoping" to come across the animal making the tracks.   So my vote was for the first choice.

I am glad I got to see the "herds" of Mule deer and the Whitetails come in to the valley back in the 70's and 80's and the elk herd in the 80's and early 90's.  But am sad to see the demise of those animals.  Greed was the main cause of their fall in numbers.  Greed by the Game department, now known as WDFW for sales of license and tags(thousands of doe tags) That is the only excuse for having years and years of doe tags, even after they said it would only last for a period of 3 years.  They never quit!!!!  Their "biologist" told them they needed to have a certain, "buck to doe ratio" so the response was harvest more does.  Problem they created was the "herd doe"(those who lead the herd back to their winter ranges)were wiped out.  I seen the "winter ranges" full of animals and I've seen winter ranges with NO animals or very few in them.  Why no or few animals? IMHO the leaders were gone, the new herd animals had no clue where they were.

Now, you'll never convince a "biologist"(at least I haven't met one yet) that, that, has happened.  I was a bit floored when I talked to an individual working for Fitkin studying the Methow herd and was told, "they didn't migrate that winter because of the mild winter"(2017).  Also that the herd(numbers)was in great shape :bash:  Gee, I wonder how that's working out! That same individual hadn't even read the early 1970's Mule Deer Study done by the Game Department. :o 

 

I 100% agree with you about the doe tags, we always had 7-8 folks in camp(we would all put in for them) that would draw them then burn them on the first day camp was set up. There is a time for doe tags to be issued now and then, used as a tool to benefit the well being of the herd, not used as a money maker.
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: D Coates on December 04, 2019, 07:41:36 AM
Timbefaller is pretty spot on.
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: jagermiester on December 04, 2019, 01:21:05 PM
Another interesting number to look at would be the number of people hunting in the Methow Valley. I have stopped hunting and fishing in areas due to the decline in game (birds and ungulate's). I have never hunted the Methow but it sounds like people are really holding on to their traditions of hunting in that area. Has there been a decline? At what point do people just stop taking animals out of a heard that is failing regardless of what the game dept. allows. Move on to better hunting grounds as man has done forever. Are we or are we not the #1 conservation group in this country.
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: stlusn30-06 on December 04, 2019, 02:12:45 PM
This is the dumbest thing I’ve ever read about deer hunting. :yike:

 Fitkin said. “Our harvest pressure stays pretty consistent, but if there are less bucks on the landscape overall, hunters probably are going to take a higher percentage.”
If I understand that correctly is he saying if there are two bucks on the mountain and one gets killed 50% of the herd was taken?

He's saying that if pressure (meaning number of hunters stays the same), but buck numbers are lower (year over year), a larger percentage of the buck population gets harvested. Ex. There is a total of 100 bucks and 100 hunters one year. hunters harvest 20 bucks. 20% of the buck pop got harvested. In year two there are 100 hunters and 90 bucks. 20 bucks get harvested again. 22% of the buck pop. got harvested. Equals hunters taking a higher percentage.

Seems to be making the assumption that hunter success rates will remain the same, or only slightly decrease with the buck pop. drop. Not sure how that holds up after enough of them are gone.

 
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: Humptulips on December 04, 2019, 04:04:24 PM
Another interesting number to look at would be the number of people hunting in the Methow Valley. I have stopped hunting and fishing in areas due to the decline in game (birds and ungulate's). I have never hunted the Methow but it sounds like people are really holding on to their traditions of hunting in that area. Has there been a decline? At what point do people just stop taking animals out of a heard that is failing regardless of what the game dept. allows. Move on to better hunting grounds as man has done forever. Are we or are we not the #1 conservation group in this country.
Move on to better hunting grounds in WA? Where would that be?
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: no.cen.wa on December 04, 2019, 04:32:05 PM
 There are many variables that have put the Methow herd in jeopardy, days the mule deer are hunted is one for  sure. In the 60's-80's there wasn't a campsite open form Beavercreek to the summit of Loop Loop pass, and the season was 5 weeks long, sometimes running into Veterans Day. They are mostly empty after the first weekend now, not nearly as many hunters at all.
I guess we could all stop hunting and let the predators control the herd, till they killed them all, and like I said once before, we could just go to a zoo if we wanted to see a mule deer.
As many of us saw the story of the island in Alaska that had too many deer, so, wolves were introduced and within 3 years nearly every deer was gone, the wolves had started killing themselves, the wolves were removed and the deer rebounded.
The WDFW needs to help with the Methow herd, doing nothing to help has gotten us to where we are, they were silent when trapping and hunting with dogs was stopped, or rolled way back, they should have known that would explode the predator population, they said nothing with the introduction of wolves, they should have known that would hurt the herd,,, and now the introduction of grizzlies,,,,
They don't care!
 :twocents:
John G
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: Igor on December 04, 2019, 04:35:56 PM
They don't care!
 :twocents:
John G

That is, in fact, the answer !!
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: bigmacc on December 04, 2019, 05:36:03 PM
There are many variables that have put the Methow herd in jeopardy, days the mule deer are hunted is one for  sure. In the 60's-80's there wasn't a campsite open form Beavercreek to the summit of Loop Loop pass, and the season was 5 weeks long, sometimes running into Veterans Day. They are mostly empty after the first weekend now, not nearly as many hunters at all.
I guess we could all stop hunting and let the predators control the herd, till they killed them all, and like I said once before, we could just go to a zoo if we wanted to see a mule deer.
As many of us saw the story of the island in Alaska that had too many deer, so, wolves were introduced and within 3 years nearly every deer was gone, the wolves had started killing themselves, the wolves were removed and the deer rebounded.
The WDFW needs to help with the Methow herd, doing nothing to help has gotten us to where we are, they were silent when trapping and hunting with dogs was stopped, or rolled way back, they should have known that would explode the predator population, they said nothing with the introduction of wolves, they should have known that would hurt the herd,,, and now the introduction of grizzlies,,,,
They don't care!
 :twocents:
John G

 :yeah:......All it takes is to look at the Bio,s "Bio", his specialtys are carnivors, where do we think the mule deer herd comes in as importance, like most of us have been saying, that rung is way down the ladder. I know a some folks"locals" that believe that herd is being managed as food for the 4 legged predator population, not for hunters and if anything is done about seasons or cutbacks that effect us as hunters it won't have anything to do about benefiting us or to increase our opportunity, they believe the priority is to make sure the "prey" is available to support the growing numbers of the 4 legged variety..... don't shoot the messenger, just what I,ve heard from more than a handful of folks. I actually hope they are wrong.
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: jagermiester on December 04, 2019, 05:40:16 PM
Another interesting number to look at would be the number of people hunting in the Methow Valley. I have stopped hunting and fishing in areas due to the decline in game (birds and ungulate's). I have never hunted the Methow but it sounds like people are really holding on to their traditions of hunting in that area. Has there been a decline? At what point do people just stop taking animals out of a heard that is failing regardless of what the game dept. allows. Move on to better hunting grounds as man has done forever. Are we or are we not the #1 conservation group in this country.
Move on to better hunting grounds in WA? Where would that be?

 Yeah right  :)
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: sooperfly on December 05, 2019, 10:44:03 AM
Don't forget to get your vote in, poll closes tonight at 9:30!   :tup:

Ok, the second part of this will go a lot quicker.   After the poll closes tonight, I'll show results on the map.  There will be a new map posted with most of the Methow winter range showing broken down into 3 more groups.  You'll just post in the thread what you think the totals of each group is, and in two days I'll show the map with all the totals.  Thanks for participating !   :) :)
Title: Re: Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: sooperfly on December 05, 2019, 11:40:21 PM
Ok, here ya go, total is 516!   Poll results are in, 20% picked correctly at 501-1000.
(note: the red circles are the 1938 numbers, the blue circles are 1937. We're just guessing the 1938 red #'s )

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49172153612_cefabf1c29_c.jpg)

Now the second part to this - if you'd like to participate just reply with what the totals of #1,2 and 3 are.  Using this example below, I'm guessing there are 195 total rest of the map.

1. 25
2. 50
3. 120

Easy peasy!  Here's the map for the second part:

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49176389138_21bbc92d6e_o.jpg)

Hope this made sense ?  I'll leave this blurred out version up for a couple days, and update with the full map on Sunday afternoon!  Thanks to everyone that voted, and I hope you put a guess up for this second part!    :tup: :tup: :tup:
Title: Re: (updated 12/5 ! ) Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: no.cen.wa on December 06, 2019, 07:57:01 AM
My Grandfather moved from Wenatchee to Twisp in the 1920's and I remember him telling me when I was hunting with him in the 60's that the herd wasn't always huge, there had been some really bad winters, don't think he mentioned the years but guess he was talking about 1938 for sure!
John G
Title: Re: (updated 12/5 ! ) Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: CoryTDF on December 06, 2019, 08:33:36 AM
Am I the only one that cant see the map?
Title: Re: (updated 12/5 ! ) Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: sooperfly on December 06, 2019, 09:22:49 AM
Am I the only one that cant see the map?

Ok, I had the picture set to "private", I've now changed it to "public".
Can you refresh the page and see them now?

Title: Re: (updated 12/5 ! ) Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: bigmacc on December 06, 2019, 04:51:53 PM
My Grandfather moved from Wenatchee to Twisp in the 1920's and I remember him telling me when I was hunting with him in the 60's that the herd wasn't always huge, there had been some really bad winters, don't think he mentioned the years but guess he was talking about 1938 for sure!
John G

 :tup:, Thats kind of what we have deciphered from from some of the old writings on the backs of pictures no.cen.wa, we have some pictures (posted and pulled down) from the 30,s that show a lot of bucks hanging (10-15 depending on the year, including a few real dandy,s) in the pictures along with a lot of snow on the ground, grandma wrote on the backs, "tough going this year", "lots of snow, not many deer", etc., a lot of it is unreadable and dates are hard to read also but some are readable and the ones from the 30,s seem to have a foot - 2 feet of snow in them around the ridgepole. Like I said, I remember dad saying there were a few years where the Department would shut down all shooting of spikes, seems to me I remember him saying they were mostly in the 30,s and 40,s after tough winters :dunno:
Title: Re: (updated 12/5 ! ) Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: bigmacc on December 06, 2019, 05:16:23 PM

Its interesting looking at these"maps and counts" (great idea sooperfly :tup:). Brings up many of my own personal memories of doing counts and hearing the many stories from my dad and grandparents. of their counts and observations going back to 1917.  One of the ones I remember as a kid was going over to count (might have been that flash freeze in the 60,s or another one a few years after :dunno:) but there were just handfuls of deer in these areas you have posted, 80-90% of the herd was piled up from the town of Methow to the Columbia, the snow was so deep in the upper valley there were litterly thousands of deer just laying along the south slopes(which were still covered in feet of snow) along the hillsides, some just feet or yards from the pavement heading south towards Pateros. Almost like the time my dad and I went over in the 80,s I believe, stopped and picked up some pellets at the Game Mgrs place and he sent us down to an orchard off the Burma Road(there was 5-6 feet of snow from Twisp,north) and the herd was all around Carleton to about Methow. I think I told the story before, there were hundreds of deer in that little orchard that dang near attacked us when we pulled in :chuckle:, I actually had to climb out of a window of my truck to get in the back where the feed was, we couldn't open a door!
Title: Re: (updated 12/5 ! ) Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: huntnphool on December 06, 2019, 06:27:53 PM
 We used to hit Finley every year and count hundreds, and that was in my lifetime. Wolf would hold about the same but didn’t have as easy of access to view, you actually had to hike. :chuckle:

 I’ve got miles upon miles of boot leather in all these spots on that map, it’s a crying shame what it’s turned into. :twocents:
Title: Re: (updated 12/5 ! ) Historic Methow valley winter deer survey - take your guess!
Post by: h2ofowlr on December 06, 2019, 06:56:38 PM
Interesting.
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: sooperfly on December 08, 2019, 05:00:13 PM
Well nobody has bothered to guess so I'll go ahead and post the totals! - 6,810
Blue was 1937 numbers, red is for 1938.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49171921791_dcfde26417_b.jpg)

Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: bigmacc on December 09, 2019, 09:23:25 AM

Aint that something, my son and I just got back from 3 days of December counting, covered alot of that area you labeled "area #1". We covered ground from about Boulder creek at the north going south into Pearrygin, Cougar, Bear, Davis lake and a little into Beaver Creek areas all great winter range with plenty of southwest slopes, feed, water and cover, we would usually count around 1,500-2,500 scattered through these areas over this same time period 25 years and more ago(pre predator boom), in fact in 1996 we counted 1,800, after that numbers continued shrinking, this trip we just returned from.........138


Forgot to add, we did also see more predator sign this year than we have ever seen. We had a little fresh snow to work with so the sign we were seeing was only a day or two old. Seen wolf and cougar sign in all those areas, more in some than in others, seen lots of wolf sign in the Boulder-Pearrygin areas and seen more signs put up on trees in the Bear/Cougar creek areas stating to keep your dogs on leash because there were traps set in the area that attracted canines, didn't actually see a wolf or cougar this trip but we did see a lot more sign than we have before and wolf sign in areas we have not seen it in before.
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: boneaddict on December 09, 2019, 09:50:14 AM
138 :'(                                            (I've counted more than 200 there in less than 2 hours hunting before)   



Thanks for sharing that Sooperfly.    Very interesting

I think that was considered a down year, but kinda scary to think how todays numbers would compare
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: bigmacc on December 09, 2019, 10:25:47 AM
138 :'(                                            (I've counted more than 200 there in less than 2 hours hunting before)   



Thanks for sharing that Sooperfly.    Very interesting

I think that was considered a down year, but kinda scary to think how todays numbers would compare

I hear ya bone, same thing here, just sitting in ONE of those areas even during hunting season in late October/early November and seeing a couple hundred deer was the norm, lots of other things eating these deer nowadays, there is really no escape for them, they are kind of "locked" into this valley and its getting real obvious where they are going to escape, man we seen a lot of deer in yards, driveways, corrals etc., probably around 100-125(those were not included in our count), some are "hugging" civilization to stay alive. I know we have all seen deer hanging around houses etc. over the years but it sure seems like its more and more, makes you wonder as more deer are chased/persued by 4 legged predators or when more and more witness fawns or others in their herd or groups get taken down and killed they are more compelled to latch on closer to people, houses etc., they are pretty smart and adaptable animals, while populations of cougar, bear and wolf continue to kill more and more deer and more deer are witnessing it or even surviving attacks I think this is what we get, more and more in yards, less and less where they should be and all in all, bottom line is, these predators have had a huge impact on this herd by not only killing a lot of deer which is causing thousands upon thousands less deer on the landscape but also how they are effecting their behavior, its really sad...:twocents:
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: sooperfly on December 09, 2019, 12:59:53 PM
Yeah, wish I had more years to compare, only one doesn't show a whole lot.  But, it's better than nothing!   :)


138 :'(                                            (I've counted more than 200 there in less than 2 hours hunting before)   



Thanks for sharing that Sooperfly.    Very interesting

I think that was considered a down year, but kinda scary to think how todays numbers would compare
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: bigmacc on December 09, 2019, 01:01:22 PM
Well nobody has bothered to guess so I'll go ahead and post the totals! - 6,810
Blue was 1937 numbers, red is for 1938.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49171921791_dcfde26417_b.jpg)

Good work sooperfly, Like a lot of folks are saying, I believe those were considered "down" years but still thousands upon thousands were in those particular areas, probably 10,s of thousands more in many other winter range areas, like what was written on back of some of our pictures by my great grandma from the 1930,s(ones we can read) there were many lean years in the 30,s but they always had double digit counts of deer hanging on the ridge pole, their lean years back then are bumper crop seasons nowadays, really puts things in perspective on how far they have let this herd slip.
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: bigmacc on December 10, 2019, 11:34:35 AM
I remember my dad telling me a few times the story of grandma and grandpa doing one of their counts the 1st week of December. It was in the 1930,s sometime and they went up into the Ramsey area, the road going up in that turf back then went up and around the south end of the hill above where Methow valley estates is now and then went up the draw to where Sullivan's old house used to be (the foundation is still there) and then around Sullivan's pond and dead ended up the road aways and to the north on the backside of the big hill above Sullivans Pond where the little campground is. Anyways, they would hike back into where the rifle range is now and my dad said one year they(grandma and grandpa) went in there(sometime in the mid 30,s ) they counted over 800 deer laying in the big bowl above where the 300 yard target is now :chuckle: and remember now, like all my great grandparents writings have said that we could read, a lot of the 1930,s were considered "down" or "lean" years, but they still counted huge numbers of deer and killed plenty of big bucks during those times, the bar was just higher I guess :dunno:. Every time we would go over to count when I was a kid and we would drive up in that area he would tell those stories of the deer they used to see in that bowl. Just up over the top of that bowl is where we seen one of the signs this last week that said to keep your dogs on leash because there were traps in the area that attracts canines, drive a little farther up that road towards Bear is where we cut 3 sets of cougar tracks crossing the road within a one mile stretch, never seen a deer up in there and only cut about 12 sets of deer tracks in fresh snow that had been on the ground for 2 days. Talked to a buddy who a week prior jumped the gate up by Ramsey and hiked back in around the old stock drive and Pearrygin ridge areas, they only seen 11 deer total for the whole day but seen plenty of wolf and cougar sign including 4 different buried kills that they figured were 2-3 weeks old, a friend and I were up in that same area in 1998, Thanksgiving weekend and counted over 600, been up in there 9 or 10 times since, either the last weekend of November or the first in December, the numbers have declined every time until this year when 11 were seen. Keep your pets on leash nowadays if your in those areas and don't count on seeing many deer, seems the predators have set up shop pretty good, I guess they will eventually move into another area in the valley after they scorch the landscape there.


I looked over the article that Boss .300 winmag posted in the wolf topics about the Lolo elk herd in Idaho, I,m afraid being an eye witness to what this Methow mule deer herd was at one time, hearing family stories, seeing pictures etc. of the (at one time) largest migrating deer herd in the country that at one time was 35,000-40,000 strong, that this herd may be going down the same path as that historic elk herd, I really do hope I,m wrong. I,m also very angry that we as hunters and sportsmen and women are the ones that will eventually have to give things up to continue to pursue and hunt in the Methow, the predator situation in that valley is getting so bad it would take drastic measures to "clean up the mess" that has occurred, folks would need to admit mistakes were made, evaluations missed and decisions made involving opinion and emotion rather than being based on science and facts. Im no expert but as a lot of us have said that have a history with this particular herd, its a real shame what has happened to it and in the end we as hunters are the ones that will be chipped away at by loosing not only opportunity by the fact there are just drastically less deer on the landscape in the valley but also by loosing time in the field, seasons etc., all for the passion of growing, expanding and nurturing predators by some, who in the end, do not want to see us as hunters on the landscape, period!.... :twocents:
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: no.cen.wa on December 10, 2019, 03:47:42 PM
I was looking at the Outdoor Channel guide the other day for a good mule deer hunt, when I came onto a series called "Hunter Nation" it was going to have Donald Trump Jr. on so thought I would record it.
When I watched it Trump and the host were both talking about the effort, very well coordinated effort, to stop hunting by some groups. Bringing in predators is one of their best attacks. It takes the herd down, and in a generation or two people give up hunting and they have won!
They weren't talking just about Washington, things like this are going on many places.
Guess this could be another subject to post, but thought it might fit.
John G.
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: boneaddict on December 11, 2019, 06:26:45 AM
I honestly believe that is what is happening and I think they have those with that agenda in high places.
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: boneaddict on December 11, 2019, 04:53:48 PM
Some other indicators of the 30s in the Methow.   Antler “restrictions” were placed for the first time in 1933.   It had to be a branched buck.   It went to any buck in 1955.

In 1937 the season was moved from basically the first two weeks of November back to the 20th of October.. it went back to the first of November in the early forties for a couple years then back to October until in the 50s. 
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: boneaddict on December 11, 2019, 05:04:11 PM
1937 was the lowest harvest in Okanogan county on record until 1971.   71 and 72 were very low harvest years as well.  Bigmacc might have some insight on that.  Legal  antlerless  harvest didn’t start until 1948. 
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: bigmacc on December 12, 2019, 09:59:24 AM
Some other indicators of the 30s in the Methow.   Antler “restrictions” were placed for the first time in 1933.   It had to be a branched buck.   It went to any buck in 1955.

In 1937 the season was moved from basically the first two weeks of November back to the 20th of October.. it went back to the first of November in the early forties for a couple years then back to October until in the 50s.

Yes bone, I remember my dad talking of the antler restrictions, you couldn't shoot spikes, my dad was 8 when he killed his first buck in 1941, the "no spike" rule was in effect then he said. His opinion was that this is what should be in effect now, since the 3 point restriction went into effect I can't even tell you how many dead 2 points just our group of 9 have stumbled onto, my dad said he never found a dead spike, he used to say "to much margin for error for some ya-hoos when trying to count points on an escaping buck, pretty easy to distinguish a spike", just his opinion. As far as seasons go he said they would "bounce them around", but as a kid he always trick or treated at the Little Bellingham Camp, I myself have many tags that were punched in the 1st week of November, my latest is November 9th I believe :dunno:, Id have to check.

I remember (as I said before) dad talking about times in the 30,s being down years, he would actually compare them to being what we call good years nowadays, they would still have many deer in camp(I posted pictures), some of the pictures have 10 or more on the pole between the 16 folks in our clan at the time, those were "down" years. My dad said there were always deer around, he would say some years when it was slow, after big winter kills you would only see 10-20 per day and other years you would see 100-200 a day. As far as 1971 and 72 go, yes they were tough years I guess for "those times", my dad and I each killed monster bucks, I killed a 5 by 5 that was running with 6 other bucks and my dad killed a huge 4 by 4, both bucks were pushing the high 300,s in weight, that was the season of 71 and there was a foot of snow on the ground the whole season, that winter was brutal and the deer were carrying a lot of fat going into it, 72 was a little lean also but we still killed 5 bucks in 71 and 4 bucks in 72 out of 9 folks in our camp. I do remember seeing very few other hunters and only seeing maybe on average 15 or so deer per day.....Averaging seeing 15-20 deer per day and batting about a .500 average for bucks on the pole, and yep, we did consider those, "lean years"........Id take those lean years back in a heartbeat, its all about where the bar is set... :twocents:
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: bigmacc on December 12, 2019, 01:02:04 PM
1937 was the lowest harvest in Okanogan county on record until 1971.   71 and 72 were very low harvest years as well.  Bigmacc might have some insight on that.  Legal  antlerless  harvest didn’t start until 1948.

I was looking through some of the old pictures bone and a couple that I posted on here a few years ago were actually from 1937, the picture showed 4 bucks(all 4 point and bigger) on the pole, there were 11 family members in the photo and a lot of snow. This was one of the pictures grandma wrote on the back "slow year" and "tough going" along with other writing that is tough to read, something also about deer being in their hiding spots :dunno:. I think there might have been quite a bit of bad weather back in that decade :dunno:, seems a lot of the pictures have lots of snow...... I already talked a little about 71-72 in the previous post so I won't repeat.
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: bigmacc on December 13, 2019, 03:20:53 PM

I was looking through some more old pictures and noticed the early 40,s(about 41-44) looked like some pretty good hunting, there are a few pictures with 20 and more on the ridge pole, there is a picture from 1944 that had 12 deer hanging and the smallest buck was a HUGE 3 by 3 along with that monster non typical that a cousin killed that made him look like a little kid, it was absolutely huge(told that story before,Gabe was about 6.5 and 270 lbs), he later became a game warden, two wardens in the family, one ended up in Alaska, one in Idaho, both hunted Muleys only in the Methow even the one who worked for Idaho Fish and Game, for some of you younger folks, that will shine a light on what this herd was really like and what has happened to it, they would both be heart broken to see what has become of this herd.
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: royalhntr on December 13, 2019, 06:28:10 PM
One has to imagine the hunting was pretty good in the early to mid 40s due to the war and so many men not at home. Those that were may have been concentrating on the war effort. Any thoughts from your family about those times and lack of hunters macc?
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: no.cen.wa on December 14, 2019, 09:42:33 AM
 My Grandfather who had moved to Twisp in the late 1920's, took his tools and his truck to Bremerton to help build, housing and whatever the war effort needed, he was alittle too young for the 1st World War, and alittle too old for WW 2, but he could swing a hammer! Also he said they really needed people with trucks!
So yes, I think there were alot of other hunters that did the same.
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: bigmacc on December 15, 2019, 12:07:06 PM
One has to imagine the hunting was pretty good in the early to mid 40s due to the war and so many men not at home. Those that were may have been concentrating on the war effort. Any thoughts from your family about those times and lack of hunters macc?

The Little Bellingham Camp was in  full bore from about the early 1930,s through about the 1960,s, like I have mentioned before the camp started in 1917, it consisted of my great grandparents, a couple cousins and that was it and it still continues today with only a couple camps and around 9 or 10 people but was at its peaks in population during the 30,s, 40,s , 50,s and 60,s. During those times there was my family along with about 5 other friends of my great grandparents along with their familys, my dad said during its hay-days there was about 15-20 camps with about 100 people(give or take) spread over about a 5 acre area, that was Little Bellingham. Yes, I do remember my dad saying that during the war years the camp was thinned out a bit, my grandpa(my dads dad) in fact was away at war along with many other of the men that were of age, many women including my dads mom were in Seattle building airplanes. I remember my dad saying that my great grandparents would bring him over to camp during those times so he could still go hunting, my dad was around 10 during the war. My dad said that a lot of the women in camp still came over to hunt even though their husbands were away at war, I told a story on here awhile back about one of those fellas, his name was Henry Luth. My dad used to tell stories of a lot of those women at camp(I posted some pictures on here a few years ago) and how tough they were, a lot of them were family members, aunts, cousins, nieces of great grandpa and grandma, they would kill, drag, gut and cut up there own deer and help anyone else who needed help. There were a few of the fellas that never made it back to deer camp, I think I remember dad saying 2 were killed in action, they were the sons of friends of grandma and grandpa. Back then they would go over to set up their camps 2 weeks prior to the opening, they would scout, hike and fish and they would break down their camps usually a week or two after the season closed, they just loved being over there, hiking and scouting. They discovered many, many migration routes and staging areas back in those early days, some of which were actually learned by the Game Department directly from my family. 
Title: Re: (updated 12/7 ! ) Totals Posted - Historic Methow valley winter deer survey
Post by: bigmacc on December 15, 2019, 07:12:01 PM

This is kind of a blanket answer, I guess :dunno:. My great grandparents were good friends with the Sullivan's. (just answering some private messages all at once).
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