Post by: pianoman9701 on February 09, 2021, 03:54:52 PM
I'm not an investor and I'm not telling you to invest in real estate or anything else. If it's time for your dream home, just do the math and look ahead down the road. Happy hunting!
Let me know if you're looking and want to find out for how much you pre-qualify. It takes minutes.
John
NMLS #2014743
Post by: Crunchy on February 09, 2021, 03:58:15 PM
Post by: pianoman9701 on February 09, 2021, 04:04:08 PM
Post by: Magnum_Willys on February 09, 2021, 04:08:39 PM
I know I didn't leave that much on the table but yea - internet commuters have figured out they don't need to live in town!
Post by: Buckmark on February 09, 2021, 04:13:55 PM
Post by: RB on February 09, 2021, 04:15:40 PM
Post by: kselkhunter on February 09, 2021, 04:21:05 PM
Post by: Magnum_Willys on February 09, 2021, 04:29:28 PM
Post by: luvmystang67 on February 09, 2021, 04:38:26 PM
If you think interest rates will go lower, then expect higher prices.
If you think interest rates will go up, I dunno, maybe to curb inflation, you should expect home prices to stabilize rapidly or fall.
IMO home prices have very little to do with the actual value of the home/area, and much more to do with what people's monthly "home allowance" buys them.
Example, I've got a job, wages have not been growing as fast a home values... not nearly as fast. So say I have $3000 a month for housing set aside. I also had that same amount (roughly speaking) 5 years ago. 5 years ago interest rates meant that I could only afford a 30 year mortgage on a $400,000 home. Today, I still have the same $3,000 available, but now I'm in the market for a $600,000 home. Here's the real trick, that $400,000 home is NOW WORTH $600,000. The only person who won is the person who might have bought that house as an investment. As a buyer, I'm still buying the same home with the same monthly commitment.
Here's what is not hard to imagine. Say this 1.9T stimulus package finally does it, finally we see some inflation. All of the savings that the middle class and wealthy have been able to save in COVID is deployed all at once when we get out of these lockdowns. We have more money, and we all compete for the same goods. This is what drives inflation. The ONLY way to combat inflation, is to raise interest rates. Guess how much my $3,000 buys me when interest rates go back up to 6%? Maybe more like a 300-400 home. This automatically puts downward pressure on home prices and why there was so little appreciation in home prices when interest rates are high and/or stagnant.
Its easy to see then why house prices have risen dramatically since the 80s. Sure its part because people are moving to the area, but housing prices are up EVERYWHERE. It has a lot to do with the amount that $3,000 buys you at 16% from the early 80s to the <3% its at today. Each rate step down means the same money buys a more expensive house. If you want to make money on real estate, buy when rates are sky high and are predicted to drop. If you want to lose money on real estate, buy when rates are expected to rise. If you need a place to live, sure you're "locking" in an old rate, but don't plan on underlying asset appreciation.
Here's some food for thought. Think about the type of house a certain type of job would buy you back in the early 80s when everyone bemoaned high rates. Now think about that same job and the type of house a person is likely to have. I don't think many UW professors are buying single family homes on Queen Anne today, but I know several who bought in the 80s are still there.
Rates don't have to go up though, we're making history today, we'll see.
Post by: Magnum_Willys on February 09, 2021, 05:01:02 PM
Post by: Stein on February 09, 2021, 05:18:36 PM
For the average Joe, their house is the best and most significant investment they will ever make.
Post by: Miles on February 09, 2021, 05:34:56 PM
Post by: Sandberm on February 09, 2021, 05:43:11 PM
I laugh when I hear about how we don't have inflation yet. Shop for a house, boat, car, bullets, canning stuff, sausage making stuff, aka any stuff and I have a hard time seeing that we aren't in a high inflation period now.
For the average Joe, their house is the best and most significant investment they will ever make.
Yes, count housing and its horrible. All this low interest rates have done is raise home pries. Its terrible. We bought our place in 2015 for $320,000...a neighboring place just sold for $520,000 that is comparable.
I saw 10-15 years ago that 25% of first time home buyers get help from family in the down payment....no wonder poor people are bent out of shape and think the rich have advantage...they do!
Horrible housing market here in the Tri -Cities for buyers, only 300 or so listings, half what it was a year ago.
Post by: TooTallMike on February 09, 2021, 05:43:39 PM
Getting ready to buy #3 now. This one will be in Florida for when we’re done with snow and cold weather.
Congrats! Hoping to be where you're at one day!
Post by: OutHouse on February 09, 2021, 05:52:16 PM
Post by: Buzz2401 on February 09, 2021, 05:59:10 PM
Post by: vandeman17 on February 09, 2021, 06:20:11 PM
Post by: Bareback on February 09, 2021, 06:25:54 PM
Contact Pianoman and see if he can help.
Post by: Mudman on February 09, 2021, 07:43:36 PM
Post by: fly-by on February 09, 2021, 08:45:22 PM
I laugh when I hear about how we don't have inflation yet. Shop for a house, boat, car, bullets, canning stuff, sausage making stuff, aka any stuff and I have a hard time seeing that we aren't in a high inflation period now.
For the average Joe, their house is the best and most significant investment they will ever make.
So true. Official measures of inflation are a joke. The weighting assigned to housing is low yet it's the largest expense for most families. Additionally, changes in the basket based on consumer behavior haven't shown up yet
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm#Question_2
'"There is a time lag between the expenditure survey and its use in the CPI. For example, CPI data in 2016 and 2017 was based on data collected from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys for 2013 and 2014."
Post by: Stein on February 09, 2021, 10:56:09 PM
Post by: Shoofly09 on February 10, 2021, 12:01:41 AM
* Buy the most expensive house you can afford. This follows on all the previous comments that inflation is coming, and a home is a good way to protect yourself from rising prices. This doesn't mean buy the most expensive house in your neighborhood. This doesn't mean buying a house that is "over improved" for your market....
* Buy a house 3x your annual income. So this is an old one, and many on here will argue its outdated, but we will revert to historical norms at some point. Are houses overpriced due to low interest rates? Maybe....
In the (very) long run, houses are depreciating assets. If you own a home for 20, 30, 50 years, you will need to spend money to repair and make improvements. If you are a short term speculator or investor, it doesn't matter. The land value appreciates over time, the improvements depreciate over a long term unless you spend money on upkeep and improvements.
People who can afford to buy/invest in a home as a primary residence will come out ahead in the long run. Those who can't afford a down payment/buy a home will lose in the long run.
Post by: arees on February 10, 2021, 07:35:23 AM
A couple of long term "theorems" about housing that I think remain true... They are in contrast, but I believe set a good range of what you should and shouldn't pay for a house:
* Buy the most expensive house you can afford. This follows on all the previous comments that inflation is coming, and a home is a good way to protect yourself from rising prices. This doesn't mean buy the most expensive house in your neighborhood. This doesn't mean buying a house that is "over improved" for your market....
* Buy a house 3x your annual income. So this is an old one, and many on here will argue its outdated, but we will revert to historical norms at some point. Are houses overpriced due to low interest rates? Maybe....
In the (very) long run, houses are depreciating assets. If you own a home for 20, 30, 50 years, you will need to spend money to repair and make improvements. If you are a short term speculator or investor, it doesn't matter. The land value appreciates over time, the improvements depreciate over a long term unless you spend money on upkeep and improvements.
People who can afford to buy/invest in a home as a primary residence will come out ahead in the long run. Those who can't afford a down payment/buy a home will lose in the long run.
How about, "expect a drop when too many people are saying that house prices only go up."
Post by: Miles on February 10, 2021, 07:58:56 AM
*** edit: speaking to 2nd homes and investment properties only.
Post by: Sandberm on February 10, 2021, 08:17:18 AM
All that did was create a whole bunch of stress and monthly juggling of finances, and bitter fights about what to spend money on. Couple years later they were divorced.
I like to buy things that are easily affordable. I hate payments/debt. I do not like money stress.
Post by: Buckhunter24 on February 10, 2021, 09:35:11 AM
Post by: Magnum_Willys on February 10, 2021, 09:58:28 AM
We just put an offer 5% over list and will almost certainly not get it. Crazy market, might just continue to rent for a year unless something changes.
Be sure to look at your payments not price. Buy a house now for $340k @ 3% interest = same $1432 payment as if you get it for $40k less next year but at @ 4% interest. And you know interest will be going up over 4% and will you see that house at $300k again ?
Post by: Ironhead on February 10, 2021, 10:05:18 AM
Post by: Buckhunter24 on February 10, 2021, 10:18:28 AM
We just put an offer 5% over list and will almost certainly not get it. Crazy market, might just continue to rent for a year unless something changes.
Be sure to look at your payments not price. Buy a house now for $340k @ 3% interest = same $1432 payment as if you get it for $40k less next year but at @ 4% interest. And you know interest will be going up over 4% and will you see that house at $300k again ?
Copy that :tup: The house needs some work, and we offered right to the top of our budget.
Post by: dc on February 10, 2021, 10:29:24 AM
Post by: luvmystang67 on February 10, 2021, 10:32:07 AM
We just put an offer 5% over list and will almost certainly not get it. Crazy market, might just continue to rent for a year unless something changes.
Be sure to look at your payments not price. Buy a house now for $340k @ 3% interest = same $1432 payment as if you get it for $40k less next year but at @ 4% interest. And you know interest will be going up over 4% and will you see that house at $300k again ?
Yes, is basically my answer to this.
Sure, you're spending $600k for a "normal" house today. Is it any different that the house you bought with the same monthly payment that was $300k 10 years ago? No, its the same house. Sure rates qualify you for more money, more money to spend on the same house.
Income streams dictate the house you buy, not the interest rate. (Obviously there are other real factors, but I think this is the biggest one in this short term period.
Post by: vandeman17 on February 10, 2021, 11:10:26 AM
We just put an offer 5% over list and will almost certainly not get it. Crazy market, might just continue to rent for a year unless something changes.
Be sure to look at your payments not price. Buy a house now for $340k @ 3% interest = same $1432 payment as if you get it for $40k less next year but at @ 4% interest. And you know interest will be going up over 4% and will you see that house at $300k again ?
Yes, is basically my answer to this.
Sure, you're spending $600k for a "normal" house today. Is it any different that the house you bought with the same monthly payment that was $300k 10 years ago? No, its the same house. Sure rates qualify you for more money, more money to spend on the same house.
Income streams dictate the house you buy, not the interest rate. (Obviously there are other real factors, but I think this is the biggest one in this short term period.
What is the underlying factor in buying a house, the payment. Does it matter really if you buy a $600k house with a low interest rate or a $450k house with a higher interest rate when the monthly payment is the same?
Post by: Angry Perch on February 10, 2021, 11:17:13 AM
I have been in Construction for um 27 years now, man I getting old. Im telling ya all to slow your roll. Be carefull. Crash is coming in next 2 years. House will be much cheaper. Buy low, sell high. I sure as hell wouldnt buy now.
Maybe, but maybe not. Also, how big of a crash? Houses in my area are going up 12.5%-ish annually. If the market drops 25% in two years, the house you buy now will be worth the same then. But what will interest rates be? A guy can really miss the boat waiting for it to hit the fan.
Post by: Stein on February 10, 2021, 11:25:04 AM
We just put an offer 5% over list and will almost certainly not get it. Crazy market, might just continue to rent for a year unless something changes.
Be sure to look at your payments not price. Buy a house now for $340k @ 3% interest = same $1432 payment as if you get it for $40k less next year but at @ 4% interest. And you know interest will be going up over 4% and will you see that house at $300k again ?
Yes, is basically my answer to this.
Sure, you're spending $600k for a "normal" house today. Is it any different that the house you bought with the same monthly payment that was $300k 10 years ago? No, its the same house. Sure rates qualify you for more money, more money to spend on the same house.
Income streams dictate the house you buy, not the interest rate. (Obviously there are other real factors, but I think this is the biggest one in this short term period.
What is the underlying factor in buying a house, the payment. Does it matter really if you buy a $600k house with a low interest rate or a $450k house with a higher interest rate when the monthly payment is the same?
Yes, the $600k house will have much higher taxes, insurance and less deductible interest so the difference is likely thousands a year - enough to go on a hunt every year for sure.
Post by: vandeman17 on February 10, 2021, 11:26:46 AM
We just put an offer 5% over list and will almost certainly not get it. Crazy market, might just continue to rent for a year unless something changes.
Be sure to look at your payments not price. Buy a house now for $340k @ 3% interest = same $1432 payment as if you get it for $40k less next year but at @ 4% interest. And you know interest will be going up over 4% and will you see that house at $300k again ?
Yes, is basically my answer to this.
Sure, you're spending $600k for a "normal" house today. Is it any different that the house you bought with the same monthly payment that was $300k 10 years ago? No, its the same house. Sure rates qualify you for more money, more money to spend on the same house.
Income streams dictate the house you buy, not the interest rate. (Obviously there are other real factors, but I think this is the biggest one in this short term period.
What is the underlying factor in buying a house, the payment. Does it matter really if you buy a $600k house with a low interest rate or a $450k house with a higher interest rate when the monthly payment is the same?
Yes, the $600k house will have much higher taxes, insurance and less deductible interest so the difference is likely thousands a year - enough to go on a hunt every year for sure.
All part of the factor when buying but is that $600k house your forever home and the $450k home one that isn't? I am just saying that low interest rates give you options. When interest rates are higher, the flexibility is limited
Post by: luvmystang67 on February 10, 2021, 11:43:47 AM
In fact, I'd much rather live in a world with high interest rates and low housing prices than the inverse.
Low prices mean lower down payment, lower taxes. When the 10k cap on mortgage interest deduction was not in place, this would've also been a preference as part of your monthly payment is tax deductible.
The only thing low interest rates are good for (and rates that become progressively lower over time) are total home prices, which benefit the investor only and those who want to take cash out of their home. Rising house prices are really not beneficial for those who want to live in a forever home, they only cost you more in taxes and insurance. If you die in your home, there's no value to you in your home value going it, it just costs you more to keep.
As rates rise, if they do, it'll put significant downward pressure on home values. Anyone who "locks it in low" will struggle if rates rise from an investment perspective. If its your forever home, you don't mind this at all as a lower value only reduces your tax and insurance burden.
Post by: Bob33 on February 10, 2021, 11:46:46 AM
We may be in bubble presently, but over a longer period of time I believe housing prices will continue to rise. In the PNW I'd rather be buying equity than paying rent.
Post by: vandeman17 on February 10, 2021, 12:00:08 PM
I disagree that high interest rates limit options.
In fact, I'd much rather live in a world with high interest rates and low housing prices than the inverse.
Low prices mean lower down payment, lower taxes. When the 10k cap on mortgage interest deduction was not in place, this would've also been a preference as part of your monthly payment is tax deductible.
The only thing low interest rates are good for (and rates that become progressively lower over time) are total home prices, which benefit the investor only and those who want to take cash out of their home. Rising house prices are really not beneficial for those who want to live in a forever home, they only cost you more in taxes and insurance. If you die in your home, there's no value to you in your home value going it, it just costs you more to keep.
As rates rise, if they do, it'll put significant downward pressure on home values. Anyone who "locks it in low" will struggle if rates rise from an investment perspective. If its your forever home, you don't mind this at all as a lower value only reduces your tax and insurance burden.
so you buy a less expensive house but interest rates are high and that is better than buying a more expensive house with low interest rates? The end result is the same out of pocket purely from a monthly mortgage payment perspective. I would much prefer to buy a house with the low interest rates where they are now and not have to worry when they go up. That 600k home that you could afford with a 3% interest rate becomes a $500k home that you can afford when interest rates go up.
Post by: Sandberm on February 10, 2021, 12:07:39 PM
Im a saver and it kills me getting only .25%?
Post by: luvmystang67 on February 10, 2021, 12:09:00 PM
I disagree that high interest rates limit options.
In fact, I'd much rather live in a world with high interest rates and low housing prices than the inverse.
Low prices mean lower down payment, lower taxes. When the 10k cap on mortgage interest deduction was not in place, this would've also been a preference as part of your monthly payment is tax deductible.
The only thing low interest rates are good for (and rates that become progressively lower over time) are total home prices, which benefit the investor only and those who want to take cash out of their home. Rising house prices are really not beneficial for those who want to live in a forever home, they only cost you more in taxes and insurance. If you die in your home, there's no value to you in your home value going it, it just costs you more to keep.
As rates rise, if they do, it'll put significant downward pressure on home values. Anyone who "locks it in low" will struggle if rates rise from an investment perspective. If its your forever home, you don't mind this at all as a lower value only reduces your tax and insurance burden.
so you buy a less expensive house but interest rates are high and that is better than buying a more expensive house with low interest rates? The end result is the same out of pocket purely from a monthly mortgage payment perspective. I would much prefer to buy a house with the low interest rates where they are now and not have to worry when they go up. That 600k home that you could afford with a 3% interest rate becomes a $500k home that you can afford when interest rates go up.
I actually agree with you, but we are talking about the same house. I'm saying the value of your house that you purchased at $600 will go DOWN to $500. Or if you're buying a house that is in a development (for ease of thought), the average house in that development today may be $600k and in the future may be $500k with rising interest rates.
If interest rates make the payment the same for each home, I'd rather have a higher percentage of my payment go to the bank than to the principle for a variety of reasons.
1) In the case above, if I "lock in my good rate early" I'm also underwater on my home.
2) If its the same $3k out of pocket in each scenario, then in the higher interest rate scenario, I can write off more of my payment (since its interest).
3) In the scenario above, if it IS as an investment... you will have a better position to make money if the total price is lower.
4) Lower asking prices come with lower down payments and higher interest rates on your cash in-hand. Its easier to come up with the money down for a home when prices are low and interest rates are high.
The only real way to justify liking lower rates in exchange for the higher prices that come with it are that you have more equity to borrow against if you want to do some kind of cash-out loan on your asset. If you don't plan on doing this, its really a lot of negative.
Post by: luvmystang67 on February 10, 2021, 12:11:48 PM
Post by: Stein on February 10, 2021, 12:39:09 PM
If all housing prices in an area fall, the property "per capita" tax rate will rise so taxes won't necessarily change. Taxing authorities will get their money. The $600K house and the $450K house will pay the same taxes in that scenario.
We may be in bubble presently, but over a longer period of time I believe housing prices will continue to rise. In the PNW I'd rather be buying equity than paying rent.
There will always be insurance, interest, upkeep, heating, cooling and a bunch of other things that are based on the current value (and size usually), in addition to taxes. More expensive houses cost more, there just isn't any way around that.
It's interesting to look not only at the average cost of a home over time, but the average size and build quality. The average house since I have been alive has grown over 1,000 square feet and now has solid surface countertops, a/c, an office or extra rooms and a host of other things they never used to have. In 1950, the average house was 983 square feet!
Provided you can afford it, holding on a home for long periods of time is likely one of the safer investments outside of treasuries. The only problem is you will always need someplace to live and treating it like a savings account gets people into all kinds of trouble. Even so, it won't be too long before your all in annual costs are less than rent and the difference will only grow.
It's one of the few things I would never try to market time, if your time horizon is a couple decades, timing on the buy doesn't matter.
Post by: vandeman17 on February 10, 2021, 12:50:38 PM
I disagree that high interest rates limit options.
In fact, I'd much rather live in a world with high interest rates and low housing prices than the inverse.
Low prices mean lower down payment, lower taxes. When the 10k cap on mortgage interest deduction was not in place, this would've also been a preference as part of your monthly payment is tax deductible.
The only thing low interest rates are good for (and rates that become progressively lower over time) are total home prices, which benefit the investor only and those who want to take cash out of their home. Rising house prices are really not beneficial for those who want to live in a forever home, they only cost you more in taxes and insurance. If you die in your home, there's no value to you in your home value going it, it just costs you more to keep.
As rates rise, if they do, it'll put significant downward pressure on home values. Anyone who "locks it in low" will struggle if rates rise from an investment perspective. If its your forever home, you don't mind this at all as a lower value only reduces your tax and insurance burden.
so you buy a less expensive house but interest rates are high and that is better than buying a more expensive house with low interest rates? The end result is the same out of pocket purely from a monthly mortgage payment perspective. I would much prefer to buy a house with the low interest rates where they are now and not have to worry when they go up. That 600k home that you could afford with a 3% interest rate becomes a $500k home that you can afford when interest rates go up.
I actually agree with you, but we are talking about the same house. I'm saying the value of your house that you purchased at $600 will go DOWN to $500. Or if you're buying a house that is in a development (for ease of thought), the average house in that development today may be $600k and in the future may be $500k with rising interest rates.
If interest rates make the payment the same for each home, I'd rather have a higher percentage of my payment go to the bank than to the principle for a variety of reasons.
1) In the case above, if I "lock in my good rate early" I'm also underwater on my home.
2) If its the same $3k out of pocket in each scenario, then in the higher interest rate scenario, I can write off more of my payment (since its interest).
3) In the scenario above, if it IS as an investment... you will have a better position to make money if the total price is lower.
4) Lower asking prices come with lower down payments and higher interest rates on your cash in-hand. Its easier to come up with the money down for a home when prices are low and interest rates are high.
The only real way to justify liking lower rates in exchange for the higher prices that come with it are that you have more equity to borrow against if you want to do some kind of cash-out loan on your asset. If you don't plan on doing this, its really a lot of negative.
My scenario was for a buyer looking to buy now and the potential to by two different priced houses based on interest rates :tup:
Post by: idaho guy on February 10, 2021, 02:53:52 PM
I think my main point, is that unless you're super early to the party, the idea that low interest rates let you buy a BETTER house for the same monthly payment is something I reject. It allows you to agree to a higher total price for the same house you would've bought before, for the same monthly payment.
Thats an interesting perspective. There is no doubt lower interest rates help housing prices but its not a teeter totter where every 1% increase or decrease in interest rates corresponds to an exact decrease or increase in the price of a home. Wages grow-we had a long period where inflation adjusted wages didnt grow but the last 4 years real wages grew quite a bit above inflation. You're right the price of the home we buy is dictated by our income. As long as real wages are growing housing prices will increase and thats why people accurately believe real estate is a good hedge against inflation. The greatest contributor to inflation is wage growth. The feds mandate is to fight inflation so we could easily have a period of rising home prices, rising and higher interest rates with higher wages which could be in our future
Post by: Stein on February 10, 2021, 03:21:31 PM
Post by: Angry Perch on February 10, 2021, 03:54:22 PM
Post by: idaho guy on February 10, 2021, 04:11:26 PM
The prices we are seeing now have way more to do with the supply shortage than interest rates which have been low for some time. I refinanced at 2.7% seven or so years ago.
:yeah: My point exactly there is a many things driving real estate besides interest rates. Basic supply and demand is having a lot bigger impact than interest rates right now . The US had a housing boom in the late 80s and I wouldn't call interest rates low at that time . A 1 or 2% increase or decrease in interest rates doesn't automatically adjust home prices by hundreds of thousands of dollars. It does makes a home more affordable and help appreciation. Interest rates have been historically low for a long time. What's really driving prices in smaller northwestern towns and cities is technology and the ability to work from home or a remote office location. Everyone is piling out of bigger cities and into nicer areas of the northwest. There is not even close to enough supply to keep up with all the new demand. Where do we all go when everybody gets here? :chuckle:
Post by: cbond3318 on February 10, 2021, 04:12:55 PM
The prices we are seeing now have way more to do with the supply shortage than interest rates which have been low for some time. I refinanced at 2.7% seven or so years ago.
:yeah: My point exactly there is a many things driving real estate besides interest rates. Basic supply and demand is having a lot bigger impact than interest rates right now . The US had a housing boom in the late 80s and I wouldn't call interest rates low at that time . A 1 or 2% increase or decrease in interest rates doesn't automatically adjust home prices by hundreds of thousands of dollars. It does makes a home more affordable and help appreciation. Interest rates have been historically low for a long time. What's really driving prices in smaller northwestern towns and cities is technology and the ability to work from home or a remote office location. Everyone is piling out of bigger cities and into nicer areas of the northwest. There is not even close to enough supply to keep up with all the new demand. Where do we all go when everybody gets here? :chuckle:
Wyoming! :chuckle:
Post by: idaho guy on February 10, 2021, 04:15:45 PM
The prices we are seeing now have way more to do with the supply shortage than interest rates which have been low for some time. I refinanced at 2.7% seven or so years ago.
:yeah: My point exactly there is a many things driving real estate besides interest rates. Basic supply and demand is having a lot bigger impact than interest rates right now . The US had a housing boom in the late 80s and I wouldn't call interest rates low at that time . A 1 or 2% increase or decrease in interest rates doesn't automatically adjust home prices by hundreds of thousands of dollars. It does makes a home more affordable and help appreciation. Interest rates have been historically low for a long time. What's really driving prices in smaller northwestern towns and cities is technology and the ability to work from home or a remote office location. Everyone is piling out of bigger cities and into nicer areas of the northwest. There is not even close to enough supply to keep up with all the new demand. Where do we all go when everybody gets here? :chuckle:
Wyoming! :chuckle:
I am with you pard! Still enjoying Idaho for the time being though
Post by: pianoman9701 on February 10, 2021, 04:24:01 PM
I laugh when I hear about how we don't have inflation yet. Shop for a house, boat, car, bullets, canning stuff, sausage making stuff, aka any stuff and I have a hard time seeing that we aren't in a high inflation period now.
For the average Joe, their house is the best and most significant investment they will ever make.
Yes, count housing and its horrible. All this low interest rates have done is raise home pries. Its terrible. We bought our place in 2015 for $320,000...a neighboring place just sold for $520,000 that is comparable.
I saw 10-15 years ago that 25% of first time home buyers get help from family in the down payment....no wonder poor people are bent out of shape and think the rich have advantage...they do!
Horrible housing market here in the Tri -Cities for buyers, only 300 or so listings, half what it was a year ago.
We're far from rich. We both had saved money. We bought a small home. Lived in it. Improved it. Sold it later for a profit. We bought a slightly bigger home, have improved it and made it worth more plus. Almost anyone can own a home but they have to work and save, sometimes do things like join the military to get benefits like VA loans. I have no advanced education. I've been given nothing and have worked my butt off for 48 years and intend to work another 7 or 8. So far, people have the most opportunity for success here than any other place in the world. But it's not instant and you've got to be willing to do more than the others.
Post by: JimmyHoffa on February 10, 2021, 04:52:33 PM
A few of the developers I know are all interested in Idaho right now. They've been going over there on work and scouting trips. The one guy is building another 45 places in CdA, one of his buddies is doing stuff in Sandpoint. The other guys were looking hard at places like McCall and Ketchum. They're all talking about it like the next gold rush. The biggest thing they're looking at to get in early on are ski destinations (existing-underdeveloped or undiscovered). Their main interest is building 'ski in-ski out', where they think they're going to make loads of money.The prices we are seeing now have way more to do with the supply shortage than interest rates which have been low for some time. I refinanced at 2.7% seven or so years ago.
:yeah: My point exactly there is a many things driving real estate besides interest rates. Basic supply and demand is having a lot bigger impact than interest rates right now . The US had a housing boom in the late 80s and I wouldn't call interest rates low at that time . A 1 or 2% increase or decrease in interest rates doesn't automatically adjust home prices by hundreds of thousands of dollars. It does makes a home more affordable and help appreciation. Interest rates have been historically low for a long time. What's really driving prices in smaller northwestern towns and cities is technology and the ability to work from home or a remote office location. Everyone is piling out of bigger cities and into nicer areas of the northwest. There is not even close to enough supply to keep up with all the new demand. Where do we all go when everybody gets here? :chuckle:
Wyoming! :chuckle:
I am with you pard! Still enjoying Idaho for the time being though
Post by: Mudman on February 10, 2021, 06:14:40 PM
Post by: Gentrys on February 16, 2021, 06:57:44 PM
So I've seen some crazy shifts over the years. Never seen a sellers market as strong as this one. It's tough to be a buyer right now, especially if you're purchasing under $500,000 in King and Pierce Counties. I'm sure it's elsewhere in WA also, but these are the areas we cover. Not uncommon to see 15-20 offers on a home with escalation clauses going $25,000+ above asking price. Some buyers are even willing to waive inspection contingencies and help pay a seller's closing costs, just to get a home. Not things I recommend or like to see in today's market. Obviously a great time to be a seller (assuming your not turning around and trying to buy something yourself in the area).
Post by: JimmyHoffa on February 16, 2021, 07:03:54 PM
Post by: HUNTINCOUPLE on February 16, 2021, 07:39:13 PM
I laugh when I hear about how we don't have inflation yet. Shop for a house, boat, car, bullets, canning stuff, sausage making stuff, aka any stuff and I have a hard time seeing that we aren't in a high inflation period now.
For the average Joe, their house is the best and most significant investment they will ever make.
Yes, count housing and its horrible. All this low interest rates have done is raise home pries. Its terrible. We bought our place in 2015 for $320,000...a neighboring place just sold for $520,000 that is comparable.
I saw 10-15 years ago that 25% of first time home buyers get help from family in the down payment....no wonder poor people are bent out of shape and think the rich have advantage...they do!
Horrible housing market here in the Tri -Cities for buyers, only 300 or so listings, half what it was a year ago.
We're far from rich. We both had saved money. We bought a small home. Lived in it. Improved it. Sold it later for a profit. We bought a slightly bigger home, have improved it and made it worth more plus. Almost anyone can own a home but they have to work and save, sometimes do things like join the military to get benefits like VA loans. I have no advanced education. I've been given nothing and have worked my butt off for 48 years and intend to work another 7 or 8. So far, people have the most opportunity for success here than any other place in the world. But it's not instant and you've got to be willing to do more than the others.
Very well said!!!!! :tup:
Post by: jstone on February 16, 2021, 07:42:25 PM
We started out the same.
Our first home costed us 80,000
Fixed it made money to get a bigger house. Mainly cause our first only had one bathroom. We have been in the same house for 20 years just refid to get property money. Was going to be in Wenatchee BUT with all of the taxes Jay is going to impose probably leave the state
Post by: Buckhunter24 on February 16, 2021, 07:46:21 PM
We offered 630k on a house listed for 600k, it was a swing and a miss. The sellers agent asked our agent if we wanted to strengthen our offer the day they were reviewing offers. Not sure what it sold for but our impression is we weren't close, and 630k was already about 200k too much. Never in my life did I think I would offer to pay that sort of money for a house :bdid:
Post by: pianoman9701 on February 17, 2021, 10:08:48 AM
Post by: pianoman9701 on February 17, 2021, 10:11:43 AM
Post by: Buckhunter24 on February 17, 2021, 10:34:05 AM
Post by: vandeman17 on February 17, 2021, 10:54:44 AM
Post by: pianoman9701 on February 17, 2021, 10:58:09 AM
Post by: Mtnwalker on February 17, 2021, 11:01:46 AM
Ha yeah kidding about the recession. That offer was as much as we could muster up. We don't like renting, but may be doing that for the next year.
Paying rent sucks but man was it nice to just make a phone call whenever something broke, I kinda miss it sometimes :chuckle:
Post by: Ironhead on February 17, 2021, 11:21:37 AM
We have a house we live in and a house that we have renter's in. If we didn't like our renters so much, I would sell my house and live in our rental for a while since the mortgage is like $1k per month. I would love to build but like stated, the cost of new construction is just as crazy as buying an existing homeThe difference in the two is, that if you build one you will have equity on day one. Not typically the case if you buy one.
Post by: Ironhead on February 17, 2021, 11:25:35 AM
The cost of building materials just seems to continue to rise. :dunno:The cost of building materials will not go down unless something forces their hand. Such as high interest rates, recession or something to make the suppliers have to start cutting each others throats.
Post by: Birdguy on February 17, 2021, 07:59:48 PM
The cost of building materials just seems to continue to rise. :dunno:
The thousands of homes last year to fires and other disasters have lumber in very high demand. If we can go a year or three without destroying millions of dollars in homes it would sure help.
Post by: MIKEXRAY on February 18, 2021, 06:20:59 AM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on February 18, 2021, 07:02:43 AM
Post by: Buckhunter24 on February 18, 2021, 07:26:32 AM
Post by: pianoman9701 on February 18, 2021, 09:50:47 AM
My in-laws sold a house last week , listed for $ 450k They received 23 offers in a week , accepted a $ 475k all cash offer and closed in two weeks. Some offers over $ 500k but needed financing. Would not be fun to be a buyer right now. Good luck Pianoman.
The reason I started in mortgages is because of how it's insulated against real estate market swings. People will always need homes. When rates are low, they'll need refis. If the bottom falls out of the market, investors will need loans. It's one of the top earning occupations and has been during a variety of market conditions.
Post by: MacAttack on February 18, 2021, 03:30:17 PM
Post by: JimmyHoffa on February 18, 2021, 05:22:59 PM
Yeah, I've heard most of the guys buying all cash turn around and are doing the cash out re-fi anyways with such low rates. Then use the cash back for other investments.My in-laws sold a house last week , listed for $ 450k They received 23 offers in a week , accepted a $ 475k all cash offer and closed in two weeks. Some offers over $ 500k but needed financing. Would not be fun to be a buyer right now. Good luck Pianoman.
The reason I started in mortgages is because of how it's insulated against real estate market swings. People will always need homes. When rates are low, they'll need refis. If the bottom falls out of the market, investors will need loans. It's one of the top earning occupations and has been during a variety of market conditions.