Hunting Washington Forum
Big Game Hunting => Elk Hunting => Topic started by: ridgefire on April 26, 2009, 07:13:00 PM
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does anybody know where the link is to see the draw units average number of points and number of apps and what not
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That should be the link you are looking for...
http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/game/hunter/specperm/elk.htm
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that was it thanks
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Interesting numbers. I should be getting close with 6 points!!
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That's what I'm thinking with 10 :chuckle:
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That column that shows average number of points means almost nothing. Don't think that just because you have that many points, or more, that you're going to draw that permit. Just think, there's probably 2000 other people with the same number of points you've got who applied for that permit. It's pure luck and nothing more.
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That column that shows average number of points means almost nothing. Don't think that just because you have that many points, or more, that you're going to draw that permit. Just think, there's probably 2000 other people with the same number of points you've got who applied for that permit. It's pure luck and nothing more.
You mean it has nothing to do with Santa Claus :dunno: :'( >:(
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I am kicking my self for not putting in for ghost units on years I did not hunt elk due to scheduling!! :bash:
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I drew Toutle A tag my first year applying with no points. :P
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+1 bobcat, It cracks me up how many people have no idea how the system works! They see that average points who drew the tag column and assume they are getting close. The reality is without a lot of luck many guys will be sitting on 20 to 30 points at some time and many will never draw unless they switch and put in for cow tags. Most guys have over 5 points and the odds for most of the best hunts are over 40 to 1. That means the average guy will draw once in 40 years so most of you have a long time to wait. There will always be the guy who says he drew with 2 pts but there are also 100's of guys with 10+ points who did not draw. Good luck! It is what we all need.
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Lets say a guy has 10 points then the wdfw squares that,that means his wild id number will go through 100 times. Let's say a guy has 2 points then the wdfw squares that,that means his wild id number goes through 4 times. It is all the luck of the draw but your odds do increase the more times your wild id number goes around in the pot. Lets say we where entered to a million dollar raffle and I had 100 tickets in the pot and you only had 4,who do you think has a better chance at the money? All I am saying is I would not mind having 10 points and a lot of luck.
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Funkster, that is correct.
Assume there is a hunt with 10 permits and 100 applicants. The nominal odds of drawing a tag without considering points would be 10%. Next, assume that each applicant has five points. That means there would be 2500 total names in the hat (25 for each of the 100). Since each applicant has 25 names in the drawing, each one still has a 10% chance of getting one of the ten permits.
Now assume that one of the applicants has one point. He has a 10 in 2500, or 1 in 250 (.4%) chance of being drawn for one of the 10 permits.
Lastly, assume an applicant has 10 points. He has 100 names in the hat, so his chances of being drawn for one of the ten tags are essentially 100/2500 ten times, or about 1 in 2.5 (40%).
The applicant with 10 points has less than a 50/50 chance of being drawn, but he has a 100 times greater chance of being drawn than the applicant with one point.
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Do you guys know if there is any link on the fish and game website similar to the harvest report, but has information on the size of the bulls that were shot in each unit? How many 5pts, 6pts, etc? I think i have seen this discussed somewhere on here before, but im not sure where. This kind of info would be good to know when putting in for permits too.
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You can get that information on the "Go Hunt" map site. That's the only place I have seen it.
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Thanks bobcat, i will check that out.
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Are you talking about last years results? The previous years results are all on the WDFW website except last years and they said they will be out in August.
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Of course you could always lower the amount of choices to 2 and then you'd see just how many people really want to put in for premium hunts. Another way would be to increase the multiplier then you might have a chance to draw every 20 years but its still all luck. I drew with 2 points my Friends son drew with none my wife still has 16 points we only put in for good tags. I guess that's why people gamble.
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Did your wife get poacher points? Otherwise she dont have 16 points.
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I think I am just going to hunt for poachers this year.. :chuckle:
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She was awarded an extra point for the wdfw draw messup a couply years ago. I really dont like them fixing things that way they should have just re-run the draw so it would have been fair too all. It seems they do this quite a bit.
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Thats complete crap, There is no way anybody should have more points then the people who have been putting in since the beggining. Wdfw is such a joke!
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I am up 2 extra points for WDFW's screw ups on my special permit apps., and have been putting in since the start of the apps. I don't have 16 pts, but your wife will be in dbl digits for sure. Not practical to re-run the entire draw for missing/errors unless the majority were affected. Personally I think they should give more points if WDFW screws up your application. I know a guy who put in for the Entiat with 22 points (Yes he had 20 points for poachers) and he did not get drawn several years ago. He drew the next year, but that just goes to show. I know a lot of people who drew the first or second year just recently when others were putting in with dbl digit points.
