Post by: boneaddict on January 30, 2010, 10:19:42 AM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on January 30, 2010, 10:21:23 AM
Post by: boneaddict on January 30, 2010, 10:22:47 AM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on January 30, 2010, 10:24:41 AM
Post by: boneaddict on January 30, 2010, 10:25:35 AM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on January 30, 2010, 10:28:26 AM
with the loyalty and hunter ed points in adds up quick ...
Post by: boneaddict on January 30, 2010, 10:29:39 AM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on January 30, 2010, 10:31:24 AM
Post by: boneaddict on January 30, 2010, 10:35:03 AM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on January 30, 2010, 10:41:13 AM
Post by: jjhunter on January 30, 2010, 10:45:59 AM
Post by: boneaddict on January 30, 2010, 10:47:17 AM
Post by: jjhunter on January 30, 2010, 10:55:47 AM
Post by: boneaddict on January 30, 2010, 12:13:28 PM
Post by: Craig on January 30, 2010, 12:17:58 PM
you might regret it ten years from now.
Post by: boneaddict on January 30, 2010, 12:20:19 PM
Post by: jjhunter on January 30, 2010, 01:15:22 PM
Post by: Romulus on January 30, 2010, 03:32:44 PM
Post by: ridgefire on January 30, 2010, 09:55:48 PM
Post by: heavy hauler on January 30, 2010, 11:11:16 PM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on January 31, 2010, 12:21:19 PM
Quote
I don't think I will be buying my 4K in Idaho Supertag tickets!
Thats alot of tickets :o
Post by: boneaddict on January 31, 2010, 12:36:25 PM
Post by: Grizzly95 on January 31, 2010, 12:42:04 PM
Post by: boneaddict on January 31, 2010, 12:47:05 PM
Post by: boneaddict on January 31, 2010, 12:51:06 PM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on January 31, 2010, 12:52:43 PM
Post by: boneaddict on January 31, 2010, 12:55:52 PM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on January 31, 2010, 12:59:21 PM
Post by: zhunter on January 31, 2010, 07:31:35 PM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on January 31, 2010, 07:46:22 PM
Post by: 3dvapor on February 01, 2010, 07:21:57 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on February 01, 2010, 10:22:49 PM
Post by: Elkstuffer on February 02, 2010, 05:26:31 PM
Post by: TheHunt on February 03, 2010, 06:47:48 PM
Post by: WAcoueshunter on February 03, 2010, 10:15:33 PM
I probably have a better chance of drawin 9 in Arizona than I do a big bull hunt here in Washington. Now thats pitiful.
Actually you have an infinitely better chance of drawing a Blues rifle rut tag. Romulus is right on the money...NR's have ZERO chance of drawing the primo AZ tags (Unit 9 included) unless you're in the max points pool for that particular hunt. The 10% NR cap gets met as part of the max pool draw, so there are literally no NR tags left for the random draw. You can see it happen in the point/draw breakdown they publish. Makes sense - the residents draw more frequently and therefore have fewer points. So the max pool for those primo tags are almost entirely NR's. If 20% of the tags go to the max pool, but only 10% of the TOTAL tags can go to NR's...well, you can see the problem. You can actually see it at work in the draw statistics they publish.
Here's an example, which isn't far from a tag I wanted last year. If there's 100 total tags for the hunt, 20 of them go to the guys with the most points, and the NR cap is 10 tags. So all five of the guys with 12 points draw, and all six of the guys with 11 points draw, but then only 3 of 10 applicants with 10 points draw. How can that be if the 20 max point tags haven't been issued? Well, at least 10 of those who drew the first 14 tags must have been NR's, or else 9 of those 10 applicants with 10 points should have drawn. So the max point allocation keeps going for residents for the remaining six max pool tags, but the NR's are completely done. Once the 20 max tags are issued, they go to a true draw for the other 80 tags, but all 80 go to residents.
I've got 10 points for elk and goats and put in for points only, knowing that I don't have a chance (literally zero) to draw the tags I want and would rather not give them the $1,000 to sit on for a couple months.
Post by: firedog on February 04, 2010, 10:39:22 AM
Post by: nwhunter on February 04, 2010, 08:15:00 PM
Post by: zhunter on February 04, 2010, 09:37:11 PM
Post by: BC CHASER on February 04, 2010, 09:52:52 PM
I probably have a better chance of drawin 9 in Arizona than I do a big bull hunt here in Washington. Now thats pitiful.
Actually you have an infinitely better chance of drawing a Blues rifle rut tag. Romulus is right on the money...NR's have ZERO chance of drawing the primo AZ tags (Unit 9 included) unless you're in the max points pool for that particular hunt. The 10% NR cap gets met as part of the max pool draw, so there are literally no NR tags left for the random draw. You can see it happen in the point/draw breakdown they publish. Makes sense - the residents draw more frequently and therefore have fewer points. So the max pool for those primo tags are almost entirely NR's. If 20% of the tags go to the max pool, but only 10% of the TOTAL tags can go to NR's...well, you can see the problem. You can actually see it at work in the draw statistics they publish.
Here's an example, which isn't far from a tag I wanted last year. If there's 100 total tags for the hunt, 20 of them go to the guys with the most points, and the NR cap is 10 tags. So all five of the guys with 12 points draw, and all six of the guys with 11 points draw, but then only 3 of 10 applicants with 10 points draw. How can that be if the 20 max point tags haven't been issued? Well, at least 10 of those who drew the first 14 tags must have been NR's, or else 9 of those 10 applicants with 10 points should have drawn. So the max point allocation keeps going for residents for the remaining six max pool tags, but the NR's are completely done. Once the 20 max tags are issued, they go to a true draw for the other 80 tags, but all 80 go to residents.
I've got 10 points for elk and goats and put in for points only, knowing that I don't have a chance (literally zero) to draw the tags I want and would rather not give them the $1,000 to sit on for a couple months.
You are right on but............ most game departments are broke and are looking to bring in as much $$$$ as they can. So expect to see higher numbers of non-residents drawing (including AZ) until the economy recovers.
Post by: WAcoueshunter on February 04, 2010, 10:12:03 PM
You are right on but............ most game departments are broke and are looking to bring in as much $$$$ as they can. So expect to see higher numbers of non-residents drawing (including AZ) until the economy recovers.
I sure hope so...it will only get more and more skewed against the NR's, so at some point you'd think the game departments would need to even things out to some extent. Hopefully they'll eventually realize that the current system is non-sustainable and they'll start losing all that free money from the NR's. For now though, they've got no incentive to change. Just from the responses to this board we're talking about a couple grand to them in hunting licenses from guys who will not hunt in AZ in 2010.
Post by: BC CHASER on February 05, 2010, 06:09:10 PM
Post by: Elkstuffer on February 05, 2010, 09:23:27 PM
we can all thank osu outfitters for this and the big money it cost to apply for out of state tags :bash: :bash: :bash:
Did you mean USO?
Post by: Bigshooter on February 06, 2010, 05:42:21 AM
I probably have a better chance of drawin 9 in Arizona than I do a big bull hunt here in Washington. Now thats pitiful.
Actually you have an infinitely better chance of drawing a Blues rifle rut tag. Romulus is right on the money...NR's have ZERO chance of drawing the primo AZ tags (Unit 9 included) unless you're in the max points pool for that particular hunt. The 10% NR cap gets met as part of the max pool draw, so there are literally no NR tags left for the random draw. You can see it happen in the point/draw breakdown they publish. Makes sense - the residents draw more frequently and therefore have fewer points. So the max pool for those primo tags are almost entirely NR's. If 20% of the tags go to the max pool, but only 10% of the TOTAL tags can go to NR's...well, you can see the problem. You can actually see it at work in the draw statistics they publish.
Here's an example, which isn't far from a tag I wanted last year. If there's 100 total tags for the hunt, 20 of them go to the guys with the most points, and the NR cap is 10 tags. So all five of the guys with 12 points draw, and all six of the guys with 11 points draw, but then only 3 of 10 applicants with 10 points draw. How can that be if the 20 max point tags haven't been issued? Well, at least 10 of those who drew the first 14 tags must have been NR's, or else 9 of those 10 applicants with 10 points should have drawn. So the max point allocation keeps going for residents for the remaining six max pool tags, but the NR's are completely done. Once the 20 max tags are issued, they go to a true draw for the other 80 tags, but all 80 go to residents.
I've got 10 points for elk and goats and put in for points only, knowing that I don't have a chance (literally zero) to draw the tags I want and would rather not give them the $1,000 to sit on for a couple months.
What you are saying is right on for deer if you don't have max as a nonresident you will not be drawn for the late tags in 12 or 13. But for elk it is not entirely ture. 9 and 10 achery there is always a few tags that go to nonresident in the draw after the max guys get there 20%. Arizona sells a booklet that breaks down all the units and how many points it took to draw. It is worth the money to buy to see where you actually sit with your points.
Post by: boneaddict on February 06, 2010, 06:29:36 AM
Post by: WAcoueshunter on February 06, 2010, 09:04:24 PM
I haven't plunked down for the book, but you can pretty well figure it our from the draw data they put on their site. They have an unvelievable amount of info available. Just found a breakdown of the total number of outstanding bonus points between residents and NRs. Here: http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/IndividualBonusPointsTotalsbySpecies_000.pdf (http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/IndividualBonusPointsTotalsbySpecies_000.pdf)
The interesting thing is that elk points are roughly equal between residents and NRs at the higher numbers - so ultimately it will depend on the particular hunt and whether more than half of the max pool is made up of NR's - if so, no NR tags are getting through.
For deer, it's skewed to NR's. For goats, it's heavily skewed to residents. In other words, the NR cap probably doesn't get met too often for goats (at least not from the max pool), so there will always be some chance you could draw a goat tag.
If you can find the 2009 hunt numbers, you can see the max pool breakdown for deer here: http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/2009FallDraw-BonusPointReport-BonusPassbyHuntNumber.pdf (http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/2009FallDraw-BonusPointReport-BonusPassbyHuntNumber.pdf)
And here's the total points breakdown for deer: http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/2009FallDraw-BonusPointReport-1-2PassbyHuntNumber.pdf (http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/2009FallDraw-BonusPointReport-1-2PassbyHuntNumber.pdf)
Here they are for elk and goats:
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/2009PronghornandElk-BonusPointReport-BonusPassbyHuntNumber_000.pdf (http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/2009PronghornandElk-BonusPointReport-BonusPassbyHuntNumber_000.pdf)
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/2009PronghornandElk-BonusPointReport-1-2PassbyHuntNumber_000.pdf (http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/2009PronghornandElk-BonusPointReport-1-2PassbyHuntNumber_000.pdf)
Post by: WAcoueshunter on February 06, 2010, 09:27:01 PM
I'll take a look at the breakdown in 9...I've been applying for unit 1 archery and came to the conclusion that no tags were getting through based on how the draw broke down last year, and the same happened with the coues tag I apply for.
I just took a look at Unit 9 archery. Looks to me like the NR cap was reached well before the max point 20% was reached. That was hunt number 3124 in 2009. 100 total tags, so 10 for NRs. The max pool went down to 12 points per the report linked above, but there were guys with 14 points who put 9 down as their first choice and didn't get drawn. Only explanation is that 10 of the first 12 people drawn (those with 16, 15, and 14 points) were NR's and the NR cap was met. Doesn't give you a lot of hope if you've got less than 14 points.
Post by: ridgefire on February 06, 2010, 11:23:46 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on February 11, 2010, 06:58:19 PM
Post by: 3dvapor on February 12, 2010, 12:03:45 AM
Post by: ridgefire on February 12, 2010, 10:36:13 PM