Post by: NataSS on May 29, 2010, 12:25:58 PM
Any help appreciated.
Post by: carpsniperg2 on May 29, 2010, 12:28:00 PM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on May 29, 2010, 12:41:49 PM
Post by: carpsniperg2 on May 29, 2010, 12:43:40 PM
Post by: NataSS on May 29, 2010, 12:50:31 PM
tags do not get you points only buying specail apps gets you a point for each year you don't draw so you will have 1 point in each area you bought a app in this year you would not have any for just buying tags
:bash:
Post by: NataSS on May 29, 2010, 12:54:02 PM
Post by: carpsniperg2 on May 29, 2010, 12:58:23 PM
Post by: NataSS on May 29, 2010, 02:03:38 PM
Post by: carpsniperg2 on May 29, 2010, 02:12:36 PM
Post by: Bob33 on May 29, 2010, 03:28:33 PM
yeah, 11 points would almost be a dead ringer.Here are the actual odds for drawing a moose permit in 2009, based on the applicants' number of points. You can draw your own conclusions.
Points Odds
16 14.29%
15 0.00%
14 3.34%
13 2.26%
12 2.95%
11 1.54%
10 1.56%
9 1.24%
8 0.95%
7 0.74%
6 0.47%
5 0.54%
4 0.45%
3 0.20%
2 0.24%
1 0.07%
Post by: WDFW-SUX on May 29, 2010, 03:30:16 PM
Post by: Bob33 on May 29, 2010, 03:43:01 PM
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html)
Post by: yelp on May 29, 2010, 04:40:46 PM
https://fishhunt.dfw.wa.gov/wa/specialhuntlookup
log in it will show several years worth of your permits..If you go to 2009 you will see how many points you have in certain categories or permits you put in for in the past. add one to 2009 and that is what you will have going into the draw this year.
Post by: WDFW-SUX on May 29, 2010, 05:40:01 PM
Winning applicants divided by total applicants.
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html)
I though you were more exact than that :dunno:
Post by: Bob33 on May 29, 2010, 06:21:45 PM
I'm not sure what you're looking for?Winning applicants divided by total applicants.
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html)
I though you were more exact than that :dunno:
The data in the website indicates how many applicants there were at each point level, and how many actually drew. For example, for moose there were 7 applicants with 16 points, and 1 of them drew: 1 / 7 = 14%. There were 11 applicants with 15 points and none drew: 0/15 = 0%. There were 509 applicants with 14 points and 17 drew: 17/509 = 3.3%, and so forth for each point level.
There are some who believe that once you get to a certain point level, your odds of drawing approach 100 percent. That is not the case, especially with the OIL permits.
Post by: WDFW-SUX on May 29, 2010, 06:24:13 PM
Post by: SI Eagle on May 30, 2010, 08:28:18 PM
Post by: Bob33 on May 30, 2010, 08:31:22 PM
1point or 11. With our system I am not sure it really matters that much. Good luck.It does matter, but it does not appear to matter to the extent that it should. Someone with 10 points should have a 100 times better chance of drawing than someone with 1 point. When you look at the actual number of applicants drawn by point level for every specie, the odds increase along what is almost a straight line: in other words, someone with 10 points is drawing 10 times more frequently than someone with 1 point, not 100 times more.
Post by: yelp on May 30, 2010, 08:45:52 PM
Post by: billythekidrock on May 30, 2010, 08:56:59 PM
Post by: Bob33 on May 30, 2010, 09:04:19 PM
Or does it matter if you place your first choice ahead of your second and so on..Yes it does matter. Everyone that applies essentially has one or more names in a hat for each subcategory in which he applies. It is not a literal hat: the drawing is by computer, but you can think of it as a hat. If you have one point, your name goes in the hat once. In theory, points are squared so someone with ten points should have 10x10 or 100 names in the hat.
Everyone will have his name drawn from the hat once.
When your name is drawn, your first choice is considered. Is there a permit available for your first hunt choice? If yes, you are awarded the permit, and you are done. If no, your second choice (assuming you have one) is considered. Is a permit available? If yes, you are awarded a permit for your second choice. If no, you third choice is considered. Is a permit available? If yes, you are awarded the permit. If not, your fourth choice is considered. If a permit is available for your fourth hunt choice, you are awarded the permit. If not, you are done and will not draw.
The advantage of having multiple names in the hat is that you are likely to be drawn earlier in the process, thereby having a greater chance that one of your choices is still available.
Post by: bobcat on May 30, 2010, 10:12:06 PM
So basically what you have done if you put a harder to draw hunt after another hunt in your list of choices, is you have wasted one of your four choices. If you go for a permit like the Desert, it should always be listed as a 1st choice. Otherwise you will draw one of your other choices first, and never have a shot at the Desert. But your order doesn't affect your odds of being drawn for one of the permits. Of course now with the quality permits there are only two choices, so there's not quite so much to think about as far as order. But still, the same thing is true, if you were to put down Desert as one choice and Chiwawa as another, it wouldn't make sense to have Desert as a #2 choice.
Post by: provider on June 01, 2010, 09:14:50 AM
Quote
The data in the website indicates how many applicants there were at each point level, and how many actually drew. For example, for moose there were 7 applicants with 16 points, and 1 of them drew: 1 / 7 = 14%. There were 11 applicants with 15 points and none drew: 0/15 = 0%. There were 509 applicants with 14 points and 17 drew: 17/509 = 3.3%, and so forth for each point level.
How do some applicants have more than 14 points?
Post by: Bob33 on June 01, 2010, 09:16:54 AM
Turning in a poacher can result in 10 points. Also, some were given an extra point a few years back when WDFW made an error in drawing.QuoteThe data in the website indicates how many applicants there were at each point level, and how many actually drew. For example, for moose there were 7 applicants with 16 points, and 1 of them drew: 1 / 7 = 14%. There were 11 applicants with 15 points and none drew: 0/15 = 0%. There were 509 applicants with 14 points and 17 drew: 17/509 = 3.3%, and so forth for each point level.
How do some applicants have more than 14 points?
Post by: provider on June 01, 2010, 09:31:12 AM
So it appears 18 applicants have been awarded extra points at sometime since 1996. Because of the exponential affect these points have (and they do), I question who they are arbitrarily awarding points too and why. Is it consistent and what criteria constitutes getting awarded extra bonus points?
Post by: Bob33 on June 01, 2010, 09:48:48 AM
Post by: bobcat on June 01, 2010, 09:50:08 AM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on June 01, 2010, 09:52:36 AM
Im pretty sure the 2 extra points were for having the incorrect number of points applied to there account for a number of years........like 5 :yike:
Post by: bobcat on June 01, 2010, 09:58:43 AM
Post by: Curly on June 01, 2010, 10:15:03 AM
Maybe these were the 18 people who supported the changes to the permit system this year?:chuckle: :chuckle:
Hell, the state gave out points like candy on Halloween before the draw this year. Everyone was given points they hadn't earned in all categories..........
Post by: Bob33 on June 01, 2010, 10:17:28 AM
How do we know the people with 16 points acquired 2 points in some way other than applying for permits? I mean, couldn't they have been given 10 points for whatever reason? (like providing public testimony in support of the changes to the permit system this year) :)We don't know, but if they were given 10 they would have had to have six to start. We do know the points were not from turning in a poacher, since those 10 points can only be applied for deer and elk.