Post by: tjgerm on March 04, 2011, 08:00:54 PM
Post by: mack2255 on March 04, 2011, 08:05:49 PM
Post by: bobcat on March 04, 2011, 08:07:11 PM
Post by: tjgerm on March 04, 2011, 08:16:57 PM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 04, 2011, 08:18:08 PM
Post by: tjgerm on March 04, 2011, 08:20:52 PM
Post by: jackelope on March 04, 2011, 08:22:12 PM
Post by: tjgerm on March 04, 2011, 08:23:54 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 08:30:13 PM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 04, 2011, 08:31:15 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 08:33:21 PM
theres always hope
what about change? :chuckle:
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 04, 2011, 08:34:36 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 08:36:01 PM
Post by: bobcat on March 04, 2011, 08:44:09 PM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 04, 2011, 09:04:09 PM
Washington's system places a multiplier on the points. The number of points is squared and it is this number of random numbers that are issued to the application (or number of cards in the barrel). If a person applies for an elk permit for the first time, they have one card in the barrel. If a person has built up two points, they have four cards in the barrel. If a person has three points built up, nine cards are in the barrel and so on.
Placing a multiplier on the points more noticeably increases the chances of being selected over someone who is a new applicant or was recently awarded a permit.
Post by: jackelope on March 04, 2011, 09:06:54 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 09:13:10 PM
Post by: bobcat on March 04, 2011, 09:14:34 PM
But the fact is, last year out of 1854 applicants for the Pearrygin permit, only 15 of those drew it. That is 1,839 who did not draw. With only 9 points odds of drawing Pearrygin are still extremely low. To put it in perspective I think it helps to think of it in terms of how many years it takes to draw a permit, based on the odds (not considering points). So as I said, for Pearrygin, a person should draw it once in 124 years of applying.
Another way to look at it is that your odds of drawing a moose tag are about the same.
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 09:17:10 PM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 04, 2011, 09:21:57 PM
Post by: jackelope on March 04, 2011, 09:22:56 PM
Post by: jackelope on March 04, 2011, 09:24:19 PM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 04, 2011, 09:25:47 PM
Post by: bobcat on March 04, 2011, 09:26:13 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 09:27:46 PM
Post by: jackelope on March 04, 2011, 09:28:21 PM
Post by: tjgerm on March 04, 2011, 09:29:44 PM
Post by: bobcat on March 04, 2011, 09:31:14 PM
Post by: jackelope on March 04, 2011, 09:31:27 PM
Any of the Chelan or Okanogan County permits are going to be good hunts. With only 9 points I would be applying for the hunts with the best odds. That eliminates Pearrygin. But that's just me. If you only apply for the most popular permits every year, there's a good chance you will NEVER draw a permit in your lifetime.
But he has 2 more points than what it took to draw it last year on average. I can't figure out how Pearrygin is eliminated in your theory. I may be overthinking this...it happens.
Post by: bobcat on March 04, 2011, 09:32:51 PM
Ok I've based my confidence on what wdfw posts (average points for tags drawn). So i've been humbled I've been putting in for ghost hunts to accumilate points in hope that one day I could draw a tag where I would have an opportunity at a very large Mule deer without all the pressure you see during general. Now back to the question. I now want to use the points that I have accumilated in attempt to try and draw a permit tag. Since the odds are very slim that you might not even draw once in a lifetime what would your number one selection be on your ballot?
Put down Pearrying for your #1 and then pick the permit with the best odds of drawing for your #2 choice.
Post by: jackelope on March 04, 2011, 09:34:12 PM
Since the odds are very slim that you might not even draw once in a lifetime what would your number one selection be on your ballot?
No offense but the odds of someone posting an answer to your question is slim.
I drew my permit last year with 4 points. Turned out to not be as awesome a hunt as I was hoping for but it could be for the right guy and the right weather. I just got lucky. My mule deer I killed is not "very large" either.
Post by: tjgerm on March 04, 2011, 09:35:51 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 09:35:53 PM
Any of the Chelan or Okanogan County permits are going to be good hunts. With only 9 points I would be applying for the hunts with the best odds. That eliminates Pearrygin. But that's just me. If you only apply for the most popular permits every year, there's a good chance you will NEVER draw a permit in your lifetime.
But he has 2 more points than what it took to draw it last year on average. I can't figure out how Pearrygin is eliminated in your theory. I may be overthinking this...it happens.
I'll bet there were close to 700 plus people that applied with 7 or more points. With only 15 tags given out in the Pearrygin your odds are still just 1 in 46.
Post by: bobcat on March 04, 2011, 09:36:13 PM
Any of the Chelan or Okanogan County permits are going to be good hunts. With only 9 points I would be applying for the hunts with the best odds. That eliminates Pearrygin. But that's just me. If you only apply for the most popular permits every year, there's a good chance you will NEVER draw a permit in your lifetime.
But he has 2 more points than what it took to draw it last year on average. I can't figure out how Pearrygin is eliminated in your theory. I may be overthinking this...it happens.
Tons of people had more than 7 points and they didn't get drawn. I guess I wouldn't totally eliminate Pearrygin, but like I said in my last post, I would put it for #1 and then an easier draw for #2. But really it just depends on if a person is willing to wait or if he wants to hunt THIS YEAR.
Post by: bobcat on March 04, 2011, 09:39:14 PM
So on your ballot if you were looking for the best chance of harvesting a once in a lifetime mule deer. ZYour telling me you would choose Pearragin
No, I would probably pick a couple of the Chelan GMU's. But Pearrygin sure isn't a bad choice either. And I recall one of the nicest bucks I've seen posted and it came out of Chewuch. So flip a coin I guess. They can all be good.
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 04, 2011, 09:40:40 PM
Here's about as close to an approximate guesstimate which i use for my own somewhat sane mathematical purpose. chuckle
1854 applicants.
A LOT of those I'm assuming have 1 or 2 and hoping for the hail Mary.
Some have max. Some have sub 1, sub 2 of max.
So I just use the number 5 as a baseline, for no better purpose than to make me feel good with my 10 points. LOL
25 (the square of 5) X 1854 = 39600
39600 Divided by the OP's 81 (9 squared) = 1/488
488
He has 1/488 chance.
So yeah, by my twisted method, the OP has about 4 times the life of Bobcats 124 years to go, with his 1/488.
Damn, we are gonna be old for those whose luck sucks. chuckle
Moral, there is no rhyme or reason to draw odds in this state. It's flat out luck no matter how many point you have.
Post by: tjgerm on March 04, 2011, 09:40:57 PM
Post by: Curly on March 04, 2011, 09:41:51 PM
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 04, 2011, 09:43:43 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 09:46:06 PM
I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.
I would put down two choices. There are about 10 or more late mule deer hunts that can make dreams come true.
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 04, 2011, 09:46:40 PM
I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.I'm content on going out of state where having points actually relates to a mathematical computation resulting in a legitimate opportunity draw a tag.
Washington's weighted points system blows!!!!!!
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 09:46:53 PM
I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.
By the way what is a huge trophy for you?
Post by: bobcat on March 04, 2011, 09:47:48 PM
I think the important thing to think about with the average number of points to draw..........is that with such a low number of permits, statistically the numbers don't mean a lot when talking about an average. It only takes one lucky *censored* to draw his permit with 1 point to throw the average out the window. (If that makes any sense).
That's exactly right. It would be different if there were 900 permits with 1800 applications. In that case the average number of points it took to draw would mean something.
Just like in 2009, the first year they had those modern firearm elk permits in September for some eastside GMU's. A friend of mine drew Observatory- there was only 1 permit and I think around three to four THOUSAND applications for that hunt. He drew it with, I believe 5 points. So the average points to draw that hunt was 5. Does that mean if you applied in 2010 with 5 points you should "be confident" in drawing? Hell no! Your odds are still something like 1 in 3500.
That's a good example of why the average points to draw doesn't mean squat.
Post by: jackelope on March 04, 2011, 09:48:14 PM
I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.
How huge is huge? 170? 190? bigger?
a 170" buck is a big buck in this state. I think we saw on this forum...2 bucks that were reported to be 200" on here last season? Maybe only a couple more that were bigger than 190...
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 09:48:19 PM
I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.I'm content on going out of state where having points actually relates to a mathematical computation resulting in a legitimate opportunity draw a tag.
Washington's weighted points system blows!!!!!!
Now 3/4 or better of the guys on MM would disagree with you. They all think that Nevada's style system is the best.
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 04, 2011, 09:48:57 PM
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 04, 2011, 09:50:50 PM
Yeah, and how many residents are there in NM which makes their system work?I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.I'm content on going out of state where having points actually relates to a mathematical computation resulting in a legitimate opportunity draw a tag.
Washington's weighted points system blows!!!!!!
Now 3/4 or better of the guys on MM would disagree with you. They all think that Nevada's style system is the best.
Nothing compared to WA and it's resident applicants.
At least they can lay claim to decent odds for their residents.
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 09:52:44 PM
Yeah, and how many residents are there in NM which makes their system work?I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.I'm content on going out of state where having points actually relates to a mathematical computation resulting in a legitimate opportunity draw a tag.
Washington's weighted points system blows!!!!!!
Now 3/4 or better of the guys on MM would disagree with you. They all think that Nevada's style system is the best.
Nothing compared to WA and it's resident applicants.
At least they can lay claim to decent odds for their residents.
I didn't say anything about New Mexico. I was talking about Monster Muleys forum.
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 04, 2011, 09:54:20 PM
Yeah, and how many residents are there in NM which makes their system work?I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.I'm content on going out of state where having points actually relates to a mathematical computation resulting in a legitimate opportunity draw a tag.
Washington's weighted points system blows!!!!!!
Now 3/4 or better of the guys on MM would disagree with you. They all think that Nevada's style system is the best.
Nothing compared to WA and it's resident applicants.
At least they can lay claim to decent odds for their residents.
I didn't say anything about New Mexico. I was talking about Monster Muleys forum.
Ooops, I misread that. LOL
Moving right along now. :chuckle:
Post by: jackelope on March 04, 2011, 09:55:23 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 09:55:49 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 09:56:20 PM
Isn't our system modeled after NV's system?
Yup
Post by: bobcat on March 04, 2011, 09:59:02 PM
Post by: tjgerm on March 04, 2011, 10:01:46 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 10:02:06 PM
Same as Nevada's and I think it's the best system there is, other than having no point system at all.
I think its the best system there is for your home state. I like preference points for out of state hunting. That way I can kinda pick when I want to draw a tag.
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 10:03:44 PM
Well If I got lucky driving during hunting season in an area I've never been and shot a 200 inch mule deer from the road I wouldn't mount it I would probably hang the horns in the garage. If I hunted my ass off hiking miles upon miles every day and finally killed a 170 inch deer and it took hours to pack it out thats the one I would mount. Well maybe if I'd been hunting for years and never harvested a monster and in my older days when my body couldn't keep up I got lucky I might mount the big luck deer then. But a trophy to me right now is one that you feel you earned. thru hours and miles of scouting and hunting.
So really then you would be happy with a 140 buck that you hunted your ass off for?
Post by: tjgerm on March 04, 2011, 10:11:25 PM
Post by: Ridgerunner on March 04, 2011, 10:14:11 PM
Post by: sakoshooter on March 04, 2011, 10:24:07 PM
not totally right
Washington's system places a multiplier on the points. The number of points is squared and it is this number of random numbers that are issued to the application (or number of cards in the barrel). If a person applies for an elk permit for the first time, they have one card in the barrel. If a person has built up two points, they have four cards in the barrel. If a person has three points built up, nine cards are in the barrel and so on.
Placing a multiplier on the points more noticeably increases the chances of being selected over someone who is a new applicant or was recently awarded a permit.
You are absolutely correct.
Post by: Bigshooter on March 04, 2011, 11:01:25 PM
No I think I would eat my tag. Rather go home skunked even if I hunted my ass off I think 170 is as low as I would go on mule deer during a draw hunt.
A 170 buck isn't going to be easy in any unit in washington. But most of the late season mule deer tags will kick out a buck or two like that every year.
Post by: coachcw on March 05, 2011, 06:51:26 AM
Post by: Ironhead on March 05, 2011, 10:41:17 AM
You have a chance every year in Wa to draw, it may be a slim chance but it is better than no chance at all.
Good luck in the draw this year.
Post by: jackelope on March 05, 2011, 08:48:19 PM
I couldn't walk away...
Post by: Armadillo on March 06, 2011, 10:54:37 AM
Post by: YoterHunter on March 06, 2011, 05:57:45 PM
Post by: Ironhead on March 06, 2011, 09:00:04 PM
took me 7 years to get drawn for my muly tag .hunted my but off ended up shooting a 150 class buck 27 wide.my biggest so far and i came home proudI would be too Yoter, ya got any pics?
Post by: tjgerm on March 06, 2011, 11:10:42 PM
Post by: bowhunterforever on March 07, 2011, 12:33:10 AM
Post by: jackelope on March 07, 2011, 07:24:17 AM
if you don't mind was this a special hunt and if it was were you seeing many big deer? Did you pass on any possibles before this one or was that the first big deer you saw and how many days into the season was it?
This was the 1st buck other than a spike we saw on the 3rd day of a 5 day hunt. It was a late permit hunt. The way it was snowing and the weather that was coming, we weren't sure if we were going to be able to get back back into where the deer were at. It was about 15 degrees and snowing hard. It's kind of a good example that you never know what will happen on these late hunts. My intention was 160 or bust but after having a very hard time finding deer, I couldn't hold off. I don't have the discipline at this point to eat my tag when a buck like that walks out at that point in my hunt.
Post by: coachcw on March 07, 2011, 05:28:02 PM
Post by: goober on March 16, 2011, 09:18:24 AM
Regarding one's chances of drawing a good tag in this state....they suck! Sure, someone drew the tag, but no one can have a reasonable expectation of drawing any tag, even with max points. Why? Because too many people have max points. IMO, preference point systems are better for resident hunters (if they include a percentage of tags (25%) which are available to all applicants) and bonus point systems are better for non-resident hunters (only because the non-resident caps on tags keep all but the top tier applicants out of the game).
Post by: NoBark on March 16, 2011, 11:09:43 AM
not totally right
Washington's system places a multiplier on the points. The number of points is squared and it is this number of random numbers that are issued to the application (or number of cards in the barrel). If a person applies for an elk permit for the first time, they have one card in the barrel. If a person has built up two points, they have four cards in the barrel. If a person has three points built up, nine cards are in the barrel and so on.
Placing a multiplier on the points more noticeably increases the chances of being selected over someone who is a new applicant or was recently awarded a permit.
You are absolutely correct.
Almost correct. You need to add the 1 chance for the current year.
So, with 3 points you would have 10 chances not 9. 3 squared = 9 PLUS 1 for the current draw.
First time = 1 chance
with 1 point = 2 chances
with 2 points = 5 chances
etc......
Post by: Curly on March 16, 2011, 11:14:51 AM
Post by: Bigshooter on March 16, 2011, 01:05:05 PM
NoBark, I think the point gets added first and then it is squared. So, if you have 2 points from previous years applications, then you will have 3 going into this years draw........thus 3 squared = 9 chances. That is how I understand it anyway.
Washingtons system is based off of Nevadas system. And I know for sure that NoBark is right when it comes to the way Nevada does there draw. And I think he is right when it comes to Washington, but i'm not sure.
Post by: Curly on March 16, 2011, 01:51:35 PM
Post by: Curly on March 16, 2011, 02:59:30 PM
I don't know which way they do it, I always thought the latter, but doesn't really matter as long as it's the same for everyone........
Post by: Ridgerunner on March 16, 2011, 03:47:57 PM
year 3 = 9 points
year 4 = 16 and on and on.
It is slightly different than Nevada's in that way.
Post by: Bigshooter on March 16, 2011, 04:46:03 PM
Post by: bobcat on March 16, 2011, 07:20:04 PM
Curly's first post was right:
NoBark, I think the point gets added first and then it is squared. So, if you have 2 points from previous years applications, then you will have 3 going into this years draw........thus 3 squared = 9 chances. That is how I understand it anyway.
Post by: huntnnw on March 17, 2011, 06:52:25 AM
Post by: Huntnphish on April 19, 2011, 10:13:36 PM
The Pearrygin had 1854 applications for 15 permits last year for odds of 1 in 124. That means you should expect to draw once in 124 years of applying.
Huh? :o
Post by: bobcat on April 19, 2011, 10:34:17 PM
Post by: Alan K on April 19, 2011, 10:43:30 PM
I really wish the WDFW would publish information like they did in 2009 so that everyone can calculate their true odds. By the way, I used the following link to get the information needed for the calculation:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html)
Post by: Huntnphish on April 19, 2011, 10:56:41 PM
Huntnphish, what part of that don't you understand?
How do 1-124 odds equate to 1 in 124 years? What kind of algorithm are you using to come up with that?
Post by: Alan K on April 19, 2011, 11:08:36 PM
What are the odds of flipping a coin and having it land heads up? One in two. So you SHOULD get 1 heads up every 2 flips. Obviously it doesn't always happen that way because of the luck of the draw (or flip in this case) though.
He was just applying the same logic. In one year your odds of drawing by the simple permits/applications calculation you come up with 1/124 chance. By that logic you SHOULD draw once every 124 years. Just like the coin flipping example.
The whole 1/124 thing is completely off though with our system. With a purely random draw it would be accurate.
Post by: bobcat on April 19, 2011, 11:10:58 PM
Huntnphish, what part of that don't you understand?
How do 1-124 odds equate to 1 in 124 years? What kind of algorithm are you using to come up with that?
I don't even know what an algorithm is. It's not that complicated. 1 in 124 means 1 out of every 124 applicants will be drawm. Or, if everything stays the same (same number of applicants and same number of permits) then each person could expect to be drawn 1 time in 124 years of applying for that permit.
Post by: bobcat on April 19, 2011, 11:13:44 PM
I really wish the WDFW would publish information like they did in 2009 so that everyone can calculate their true odds. By the way, I used the following link to get the information needed for the calculation:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html)
I think that information will be available as soon as they get the 2010 harvest report posted.
Post by: grundy53 on April 20, 2011, 05:40:47 AM
That was just a way of oversimplifying it, and with the points squaring it wasn't entirely accurate.
What are the odds of flipping a coin and having it land heads up? One in two. So you SHOULD get 1 heads up every 2 flips. Obviously it doesn't always happen that way because of the luck of the draw (or flip in this case) though.
He was just applying the same logic. In one year your odds of drawing by the simple permits/applications calculation you come up with 1/124 chance. By that logic you SHOULD draw once every 124 years. Just like the coin flipping example.
The whole 1/124 thing is completely off though with our system. With a purely random draw it would be accurate.
:yeah:
Post by: jackelope on April 20, 2011, 07:19:05 AM
Huntnphish, what part of that don't you understand?
How do 1-124 odds equate to 1 in 124 years? What kind of algorithm are you using to come up with that?
I don't even know what an algorithm is. It's not that complicated. 1 in 124 means 1 out of every 124 applicants will be drawm. Or, if everything stays the same (same number of applicants and same number of permits) then each person could expect to be drawn 1 time in 124 years of applying for that permit.
I've never been able to figure out how to calculate odds in a weighted point system like we have. You can't calculate 1:1 because it's not that way. I don't personally think there's any truly accurate way to calculate odds. You can do it based on averages, like average the number of points someone has when they apply but we don't have access to that info. Just my opinion...I just have never been able to figure out how people come up with odds.
Post by: Bigshooter on April 20, 2011, 07:44:51 AM
Post by: Curly on April 20, 2011, 10:28:38 AM
I've never been able to figure out how to calculate odds in a weighted point system like we have. You can't calculate 1:1 because it's not that way. I don't personally think there's any truly accurate way to calculate odds. You can do it based on averages, like average the number of points someone has when they apply but we don't have access to that info. Just my opinion...I just have never been able to figure out how people come up with odds.
What Alan K did is about as accurate as you're gonna get. You can take a look at past years data and assume that applicants will be similar for other years.
Here are your odds in 2009 with the various amounts of points. Obviously now that the categories have been broken down, only two choices allowed in the quality category etc. things have changed.
I really wish the WDFW would publish information like they did in 2009 so that everyone can calculate their true odds. By the way, I used the following link to get the information needed for the calculation:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html)
Post by: jackelope on April 20, 2011, 12:32:19 PM
I can tell you what your odds are for a late rifle mule deer tag: Poor at best and if your lucky you'll draw once in your lifetime. :bash:
I drew last year with 4 points.
:o
:peep:
Post by: jackelope on April 20, 2011, 12:34:48 PM
I've never been able to figure out how to calculate odds in a weighted point system like we have. You can't calculate 1:1 because it's not that way. I don't personally think there's any truly accurate way to calculate odds. You can do it based on averages, like average the number of points someone has when they apply but we don't have access to that info. Just my opinion...I just have never been able to figure out how people come up with odds.
What Alan K did is about as accurate as you're gonna get. You can take a look at past years data and assume that applicants will be similar for other years.Here are your odds in 2009 with the various amounts of points. Obviously now that the categories have been broken down, only two choices allowed in the quality category etc. things have changed.
I really wish the WDFW would publish information like they did in 2009 so that everyone can calculate their true odds. By the way, I used the following link to get the information needed for the calculation:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html)
I bet you could see that again once a couple years of this new system goes by...I think the numbers would be way too skewed right now. Look at the doe permit guys...7 points average to draw? Because everyone who put in for those permits had all their points.
Post by: Curly on April 20, 2011, 12:41:11 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on April 20, 2011, 01:15:03 PM
I can tell you what your odds are for a late rifle mule deer tag: Poor at best and if your lucky you'll draw once in your lifetime. :bash:
I drew last year with 4 points.
:o
:peep:
You might as well stop applying then. That was your one time.
Post by: Bigshooter on April 20, 2011, 01:18:45 PM
Yeah, that is a good point. It is going to be really hard to estimate odds of drawing for a while since so many people had lots of points dumped into the various categories. Antlerless permits are going to be really hard to draw for a while.
I don't see them get any easier to draw. More guys are applying now for tags they have in the past. I think it's only going to get harder to draw tags that use to be fairly easy to draw.
Post by: jackelope on April 20, 2011, 01:23:04 PM
I can tell you what your odds are for a late rifle mule deer tag: Poor at best and if your lucky you'll draw once in your lifetime. :bash:
I drew last year with 4 points.
:o
:peep:
You might as well stop applying then. That was your one time.
For what it's worth the permit I drew only had 400something applicants and it was a 1st timer. I'm interested to see how it goes in the future, especially now that whitetails can be harvested too.
:dunno:
Post by: jackelope on April 20, 2011, 01:26:10 PM
I suspec that people will be burning their points quick in the antlerless or 2nd deer categories. That or not applying at all. So maybe the odds will improve on them quicker than maybe we think. I drew a 2nd deer tag last year too so I have no points there. I will put in for it again and it'll be interesting to see what happens. What I'm really interested in seeing this year will be the "Buck Deer" category and how that plays out. Will permits that folks drew with 4-5 points now take 7-8 to draw? We shall see.Yeah, that is a good point. It is going to be really hard to estimate odds of drawing for a while since so many people had lots of points dumped into the various categories. Antlerless permits are going to be really hard to draw for a while.
I don't see them get any easier to draw. More guys are applying now for tags they have in the past. I think it's only going to get harder to draw tags that use to be fairly easy to draw.
Post by: Bigshooter on April 20, 2011, 01:46:27 PM
I don't see them not applying again after drawing an antlerless tag or a 2nd deer tag. If you have 10,000 people applying for those now your going to have to give out 5,000 of those tags a year to see odds get any better.I suspec that people will be burning their points quick in the antlerless or 2nd deer categories. That or not applying at all. So maybe the odds will improve on them quicker than maybe we think. I drew a 2nd deer tag last year too so I have no points there. I will put in for it again and it'll be interesting to see what happens. What I'm really interested in seeing this year will be the "Buck Deer" category and how that plays out. Will permits that folks drew with 4-5 points now take 7-8 to draw? We shall see.Yeah, that is a good point. It is going to be really hard to estimate odds of drawing for a while since so many people had lots of points dumped into the various categories. Antlerless permits are going to be really hard to draw for a while.
I don't see them get any easier to draw. More guys are applying now for tags they have in the past. I think it's only going to get harder to draw tags that use to be fairly easy to draw. You need to be turning a lot of people over to 0 points every year to see odds get better. And there are not enough tags given out to do that.
Post by: jess on April 20, 2011, 02:15:43 PM
Post by: Bob33 on April 20, 2011, 04:00:55 PM
I suspec that people will be burning their points quick in the antlerless or 2nd deer categories. That or not applying at all. So maybe the odds will improve on them quicker than maybe we think.It looks like overall average draw odds for antlerless deer were only about 3 percent last year. That means there will still be quite a few applicants with lots of points for a few more years.
Post by: sakoshooter on April 20, 2011, 05:07:47 PM
not totally right
Washington's system places a multiplier on the points. The number of points is squared and it is this number of random numbers that are issued to the application (or number of cards in the barrel). If a person applies for an elk permit for the first time, they have one card in the barrel. If a person has built up two points, they have four cards in the barrel. If a person has three points built up, nine cards are in the barrel and so on.
Placing a multiplier on the points more noticeably increases the chances of being selected over someone who is a new applicant or was recently awarded a permit.
You are 100% correct Skyvalhunter
Post by: jharstad on April 20, 2011, 06:41:23 PM
Post by: carpsniperg2 on April 20, 2011, 06:53:48 PM
Post by: jharstad on April 20, 2011, 07:18:30 PM
Post by: grundy53 on April 20, 2011, 07:20:23 PM
Post by: carpsniperg2 on April 20, 2011, 07:30:26 PM
wonder y they never get drawn. i suppose i would be bitter too.
I draw about every couple of years. But some people just arn't lucky I guess.
Post by: rtspring on April 20, 2011, 07:34:29 PM
Post by: bobcat on April 20, 2011, 07:44:29 PM
What I'm really interested in seeing this year will be the "Buck Deer" category and how that plays out. Will permits that folks drew with 4-5 points now take 7-8 to draw? We shall see.
I think permits in the Buck category will be harder to draw than Quality permits, on average, because there are less permits available.
Post by: jackelope on April 20, 2011, 08:19:06 PM
wonder y they never get drawn. i suppose i would be bitter too.
I draw about every couple of years. But some people just arn't lucky I guess.
You guys drawing every couple years are not putting in for the premier tags that the guys who haven't drawn permits in many years of applying are. Granted there's a little luck involved, but the more times your name is in the pot, the better your odds of drawing are.
What deer permits are you applying for that you're drawing every couple years?
Post by: grundy53 on April 20, 2011, 08:25:48 PM
wonder y they never get drawn. i suppose i would be bitter too.
I draw about every couple of years. But some people just arn't lucky I guess.
You guys drawing every couple years are not putting in for the premier tags that the guys who haven't drawn permits in many years of applying are. Granted there's a little luck involved, but the more times your name is in the pot, the better your odds of drawing are.
What deer permits are you applying for that you're drawing every couple years?
That was the point I was trying to make. Thanks for clearing it up for me.
Post by: jackelope on April 20, 2011, 08:27:22 PM
:dunno:
Post by: link on April 20, 2011, 08:35:23 PM
Post by: WAmuleyHunter on April 20, 2011, 08:40:33 PM
Post by: rosscrazyelk on April 20, 2011, 09:11:47 PM
what i don't understand is how do all you guys have all these points 9, 16, 23, and so on. Ive been putting in 4 permits since 1999 and the most points Ive ever had for deer was 3 and for elk was 4. Ive drew buck tags, doe tags, and cow tags, never a bull. but nevertheless i still drew. Ive drew 2 natches cows with a rifle. a bumping cow with a front stuffer. and a Margarette cow archery last year. ever outher year or so i would get drawn for a deer permit. right know i have 3 points for deer so honestly I'm optimistic for a deer tag. I'm i out of my mind. once again how do you guys have all these points. my buddy has 7 points down the board but he has the post points out of ne body i know. I'm really excited for him to get drawn.This was not for deer but I had 14 points when I finally got drawn. One reason was I only put in one choice so my chances were never good. I know someone who has over 30
Post by: jharstad on April 21, 2011, 07:35:56 AM
Post by: remington300mag on April 21, 2011, 08:13:48 AM
I also think guys when they get up in their points just start applying for one unit. That coupled with being a low odds unit for a premier hunt drastically reduces your chances. And also depends on how your luck is running. :)
This is exactly why I now have 26 points for deer!! 10 poacher points.... plus I have never drew the one tag I want so I have 16 regular points this year! Every year I say it has got to be my year....just to be let down every year!
Post by: Bigshooter on April 21, 2011, 08:34:07 AM
i understand what u all are saying. i did just put in for the high percentage hunts but i also put in for one of two of the more quality hunts. for me getting drawn period means I'm going to have a quality hunt. Ive shot alot of deer nothing big. s small 3 point on the eastside, and a bunch of spike and does on the west side, and 4 tasty fat cow elk. me and my family look forward to the meat in the freezer every year, yes horns look great on the wall (and one of this days i will put some there) but they don't taste very good. to me theirs alot to be said on constantly harvesting animals. just my :twocents:
I put meat in the freezer every year on otc tags. I save my points for horns not meat.
Post by: CJ-5 on April 21, 2011, 10:02:49 AM
Quote
You say you feel fairly confident in drawing, because you have 9 points? Well then you must not understand how bad your odds really are. The Pearrygin had 1854 applications for 15 permits last year for odds of 1 in 124. That means you should expect to draw once in 124 years of applying. If you've only applied for 9 years you have a long way to go. The problem is there are lots of people with just as many points as you have, or more. Many people will have 16 points this year. So your 9 points really doesn't help you a whole lot. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but it's the truth. If you want a little better odds apply for Chewuch. It was 1 in 66 last year, so almost twice as much chance of drawing as the Pearrygin.
Bobcat, who cares if the guy only has 9 points or not. There is nothing wrong with having some hope and being optimistic. The question was about what unit to possibly put in for, not to go off on how bad the drawing odds are.
To answer the question I think the Pearrygin tag would be a good one to put in for if you want a good buck. Put in and hope for the best!
Post by: Alan K on April 21, 2011, 10:13:16 AM
i understand what u all are saying. i did just put in for the high percentage hunts but i also put in for one of two of the more quality hunts. for me getting drawn period means I'm going to have a quality hunt. Ive shot alot of deer nothing big. s small 3 point on the eastside, and a bunch of spike and does on the west side, and 4 tasty fat cow elk. me and my family look forward to the meat in the freezer every year, yes horns look great on the wall (and one of this days i will put some there) but they don't taste very good. to me theirs alot to be said on constantly harvesting animals. just my :twocents:
I put meat in the freezer every year on otc tags. I save my points for horns not meat.
:yeah:
Post by: bobcat on April 21, 2011, 06:58:11 PM
QuoteYou say you feel fairly confident in drawing, because you have 9 points? Well then you must not understand how bad your odds really are. The Pearrygin had 1854 applications for 15 permits last year for odds of 1 in 124. That means you should expect to draw once in 124 years of applying. If you've only applied for 9 years you have a long way to go. The problem is there are lots of people with just as many points as you have, or more. Many people will have 16 points this year. So your 9 points really doesn't help you a whole lot. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but it's the truth. If you want a little better odds apply for Chewuch. It was 1 in 66 last year, so almost twice as much chance of drawing as the Pearrygin.
Bobcat, who cares if the guy only has 9 points or not. There is nothing wrong with having some hope and being optimistic. The question was about what unit to possibly put in for, not to go off on how bad the drawing odds are.
To answer the question I think the Pearrygin tag would be a good one to put in for if you want a good buck. Put in and hope for the best!
Sorry if you didn't like my post, but I usually "go off" on whatever I want. I didn't know I was required to only answer specific questions. I felt my post was informative and helpful since he apparently is thinking he has a good chance of drawing one of the hardest permits there is to draw, and I tried to put it in perspective for him. The advice I gave was just how I apply for permits. I look for the ones with the best odds of drawing. Why would he not want to double his chances of drawing a good permit? I'll try to remember not to offer any advice to any questions you may ask on here.
Post by: SkookumHntr on April 21, 2011, 07:47:55 PM
Post by: WDFW Hates ME!!! on April 21, 2011, 09:54:02 PM
Points Applicants Tags drawn
16 1 0
15 1 0
14 1 0
13 9 0
12 11 2
11 34 1
10 50 2
9 67 2
8 90 1
7 143 1
6 139 1
5 170 1
4 218 0
3 299 1
2 371 0
1 522 0
Post by: grundy53 on April 21, 2011, 09:55:45 PM
OK i didn't look through every post, but the results for 2010 arn't up yet so i have 2009. Maybe you can figure out your odds.
Points Applicants Tags drawn
16 1 0
15 1 0
14 1 0
13 9 0
12 11 2
11 34 1
10 50 2
9 67 2
8 90 1
7 143 1
6 139 1
5 170 1
4 218 0
3 299 1
2 371 0
1 522 0
which hunt is this?
Post by: WDFW Hates ME!!! on April 21, 2011, 09:58:08 PM
| 1023 | Pearrygin A |
Post by: bobcat on April 21, 2011, 09:59:15 PM
I only put in for the best units with the biggest Bucks!! There's only 3 units that interest me, actually just 2!
Which ones?
Post by: WDFW Hates ME!!! on April 21, 2011, 10:00:15 PM
But i don't hunt deer much. I focus more on elk. But once i draw that OIL tag for a big mulie i will probably be hooked.
Wife says i don't really need another obsession. Elk and salmon are enough for one person. But there is always that chance...
Post by: rtspring on April 21, 2011, 10:12:25 PM
you put in for that big bull tag? If you draw let me know. I will be aorund much more this year and have him pegged for ya...
I will pretty much be up there from OCT 1st thru all of Elk season.......retired ha ha ha
Post by: SkookumHntr on April 22, 2011, 09:10:48 AM
Hey chris,-Who is this? lol
you put in for that big bull tag? If you draw let me know. I will be aorund much more this year and have him pegged for ya...
I will pretty much be up there from OCT 1st thru all of Elk season.......retired ha ha ha
Post by: Skyvalhunter on April 23, 2011, 05:53:57 AM
Post by: WDFW Hates ME!!! on April 23, 2011, 06:44:38 AM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on April 23, 2011, 07:01:58 AM
Post by: WDFW Hates ME!!! on April 23, 2011, 04:40:56 PM
Post by: throttlejocky20 on April 24, 2011, 08:50:26 AM
Post by: steen on April 28, 2011, 01:48:39 PM
Post by: fremont on April 29, 2011, 03:30:22 PM
The longest shot is getting selected, THEN having your #1 choice still available.
If you're not too picky, then put down the maximum # of choices available for that type of hunt.
Unless this info is out there in the public domain (WDFW), then it's impossible to know what your statistical odds are of being picked, since data such as the average # of preference points for those selected tell you almost nothing. If the average is 7 with 20 permits drawn, 10 winners may have had 13 points each and the other 10 having 1 point each. The question is how many aggregate (in total) cumulative preference points are in the ENTIRE pool, divided by the number of applicants. That would tell you the weighted average # of pref points per applicant, thus giving the applicant an idea of where they are on the histogram.
Speaking of a histogram, it would great if (assuming they don't) WDFW would disclose the # of applicants by preference points--as well as the winners--so we could do the math and see how far out on the right end of the distribution most of the winners really are.
Post by: buckhorn2 on April 30, 2011, 01:07:44 PM
Post by: bobcat on April 30, 2011, 01:21:18 PM
Post by: SkookumHntr on April 30, 2011, 01:32:14 PM
I just got mail from the guy who does all the hunting draw odds and permits for the state of oregon and wa. He said if I sent him the points I have for the hunts I want to put in for he would send me my odds of getting drawn. But I sent in last night but at least I will be able to see my odds. I still wish they would just pay money instead of points for turning in a poacher some guys got way to much advantage over most everyone. I am glad they turned them in but not so glad they get points. Some guys will never draw a tag or see a poacher.- Buckhorn I feel the same way! I wish they would just give money! Or at least not let the poacher points people go ahead of the guys that never drawn in 16+ years :twocents:
Post by: BOWHUNTER45 on April 30, 2011, 01:43:32 PM
Post by: Bob33 on April 30, 2011, 01:49:35 PM
Speaking of a histogram, it would great if (assuming they don't) WDFW would disclose the # of applicants by preference points--as well as the winners--so we could do the math and see how far out on the right end of the distribution most of the winners really are.2009 data: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html)
Post by: buckhorn2 on April 30, 2011, 06:50:20 PM
Post by: Chesapeake on May 03, 2011, 03:42:08 PM
I'll tell you the bottom line in draw odds.
You cant get drawn if your not in the draw.
You need to put in every year. No ghost points. Put in for a tag. Your best chance of increasing your odds is to enter more draws.
Example: Lets say your odds are 1:480 (probably pretty close). If you put in for 2 years your odds just doubled to 2:480.
Now some naysayer is going to say increasing your points from say 9 (81) to 10 (100) did more to increase your odds.
But it didnt, because all the rest of us added points just the same. The number of other peoples tickets in the pail goes up every year along with the number of your tickets. (of course this doesnt take into account the variables of people with points getting taken out of the draw by drawing, people entering the draw, ect..... because there is no way to do that, and there isnt enough reduction of points due to drawing to make a difference)
Post by: Alan K on May 03, 2011, 04:14:19 PM
I'll tell you the bottom line in draw odds.
You cant get drawn if your not in the draw.
You need to put in every year. No ghost points. Put in for a tag. Your best chance of increasing your odds is to enter more draws.
Example: Lets say your odds are 1:480 (probably pretty close). If you put in for 2 years your odds just doubled to 2:480.
Now some naysayer is going to say increasing your points from say 9 (81) to 10 (100) did more to increase your odds.
But it didnt, because all the rest of us added points just the same. The number of other peoples tickets in the pail goes up every year along with the number of your tickets. (of course this doesnt take into account the variables of people with points getting taken out of the draw by drawing, people entering the draw, ect..... because there is no way to do that, and there isnt enough reduction of points due to drawing to make a difference)
In general your odds actually do increase, at least when you get into the upper tier of points, even with everyone else's points increasing as well. If your points increase from 11 points to 12 points, and john doe's points increase from 3-4 points, the number of times your name is in the hat increased by 23, while john doe's only increased by 7. Now it's impossible to say what the change in the overall odds would be because of new people putting in and others putting in for other hunts, but in general you will slowly lose ground on people who have more points than you and gain ground on people with fewer than you.
Post by: Romulus on May 03, 2011, 04:37:41 PM
I'll tell you the bottom line in draw odds.
You cant get drawn if your not in the draw.
You need to put in every year. No ghost points. Put in for a tag. Your best chance of increasing your odds is to enter more draws.
Example: Lets say your odds are 1:480 (probably pretty close). If you put in for 2 years your odds just doubled to 2:480.
Now some naysayer is going to say increasing your points from say 9 (81) to 10 (100) did more to increase your odds.
But it didnt, because all the rest of us added points just the same. The number of other peoples tickets in the pail goes up every year along with the number of your tickets. (of course this doesnt take into account the variables of people with points getting taken out of the draw by drawing, people entering the draw, ect..... because there is no way to do that, and there isnt enough reduction of points due to drawing to make a difference)
The addition of points is the only thing potentially increasing your odds. If you are putting in for a hunt with 1 in 100 odds and you put in the following year you still have only 1 in 100 odds.
Post by: Chesapeake on May 03, 2011, 05:11:04 PM
In general your odds actually do increase, at least when you get into the upper tier of points, even with everyone else's points increasing as well. If your points increase from 11 points to 12 points, and john doe's points increase from 3-4 points, the number of times your name is in the hat increased by 23, while john doe's only increased by 7. Now it's impossible to say what the change in the overall odds would be because of new people putting in and others putting in for other hunts, but in general you will slowly lose ground on people who have more points than you and gain ground on people with fewer than you.
but in general you will slowly lose ground on people who have more points than you and gain ground on people with fewer than you.
You say it all when you say "slowly". You aint kidding there. There isnt neer enough tags in the best units to whittle down the 3 to 5k applicants each year. Pluss you get point collectors entering the best draws every year as units go through thier changes in quality.
My main point was, put in. If your going to collect points, do it trying for the best tags. Who knows, you might just draw.
Post by: Curly on May 03, 2011, 05:29:00 PM
(I'm only going to put in for ghost points on moose because I don't think I can afford to spend the money on fuel if I were to get drawn). :(
Post by: Skyvalhunter on May 03, 2011, 05:31:56 PM
Post by: Chesapeake on May 03, 2011, 05:53:52 PM
Post by: Alan K on May 03, 2011, 05:54:26 PM
Post by: throttlejocky20 on May 03, 2011, 06:13:46 PM
Post by: bobcat on May 03, 2011, 06:46:40 PM
Especially this year, because if you draw next year the tag will cost three times as much! You might as well take your chances this year and if drawn you'll save $200 on the tag, from what it will cost in the future.
Post by: Curly on May 03, 2011, 07:06:49 PM
Post by: fremont on May 03, 2011, 09:23:16 PM
If you shoot a moose, give a quarter away for a tank of gas and come home with 3 quarters for the freezer.
:twocents:
Post by: coachcw on May 04, 2011, 11:22:05 AM
Post by: leed on May 04, 2011, 04:52:10 PM