Hunting Washington Forum

Big Game Hunting => Other Big Game => Topic started by: teanawayslayer on May 18, 2018, 02:44:13 PM

Title: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: teanawayslayer on May 18, 2018, 02:44:13 PM
Itís that time of year again. I see the whales are dropping some major coin again this year. I told myself I was going to stay away from them this year but had the itch and couldnít help myself. Iíve donated quite a bit of cash over the past several years on these things with no luck. Had a buddy win mule deer two years ago with minimal tickets purchased and of course gringo with the sheep with one ticket :tup:! Must be nice to be lucky lol. Anyways good luck to everyone playing!
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 18, 2018, 03:48:27 PM
Yes the whales dropped in ALOT of money early into many of the raffles, I've been tracking the sales, I might throw a little in but the odds are definitely stacked against us, more so than most years. 
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: NRA4LIFE on May 18, 2018, 03:51:02 PM
I stopped buying them several years ago.  I sure wish they'd limit the number of tickets you can buy.  But it's the WDFW, and sadly that will never happen.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Rainier10 on May 18, 2018, 04:28:15 PM
Odds of drawing are still better than in some regular permit hunts.  I think I may have to buy one










thousand tickets.  :chuckle:
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Duckhunter14 on May 21, 2018, 10:51:20 AM
Odds of drawing are still better than in some regular permit hunts.  I think I may have to buy one










thousand tickets.  :chuckle:

Only a thousand? Come on...go all in! Don't you want to hunt elk in the rut again??  :chuckle:

It appears someone may know about something special in a certain sheep unit...they seem to be getting a lot of attention early.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: boneaddict on May 21, 2018, 12:31:12 PM
I stopped a couple years ago.  I always get excited about thinking about the hunt, then realize after itís done, man I just saved some coin. 
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Timberstalker on May 21, 2018, 12:37:02 PM
@Gringo31

Go buy that one (1) winning ticket again! :tup:
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Gringo31 on May 21, 2018, 01:58:06 PM
It's hard to think about.....  I'd rather someone else get the joy of doing what I did.



That being said, I'd take the tag over a whale just to piss them off  :chuckle:
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: mulehunter on May 21, 2018, 03:22:30 PM
@Gringo31

Go buy that one (1) winning ticket again! :tup:

 :yeah:
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 21, 2018, 03:22:42 PM
Gringo I couldn't have said it better myself, I feel the exact same way. 
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: mulehunter on May 21, 2018, 03:24:47 PM
It's hard to think about.....  I'd rather someone else get the joy of doing what I did.



That being said, I'd take the tag over a whale just to piss them off  :chuckle:

 :chuckle:   :chuckle:
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: baker5150 on May 21, 2018, 03:32:43 PM
When they say "1 additional any buck mule deer"  does it still have to be 3 point or better in a 3 point or better GMU?
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Miles on May 21, 2018, 03:46:03 PM
When they say "1 additional any buck mule deer"  does it still have to be 3 point or better in a 3 point or better GMU?

Depends on how much you can spend on a lawyer.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Bob33 on May 21, 2018, 03:51:16 PM
When they say "1 additional any buck mule deer"  does it still have to be 3 point or better in a 3 point or better GMU?
It only needs visible antlers.

"Any Buck/Bull: Only deer/elk/moose with visible antlers may be taken (fawns/calves illegal). Visible antler is a horn-like growth projecting above the hairline."
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: teanawayslayer on May 30, 2018, 05:16:14 PM
I got on the wdfw website and saw the raffle tickets sales havenít been updated in two weeks. I emailed  them to see if they would update the ticket sales.  This is there response.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: teanawayslayer on May 30, 2018, 05:18:14 PM
I guess they will sell more tickets and take more money from us. I like seeing how many tickets are sold especially if a whale comes in and blows it up.  :bash:
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: gee_unit360 on May 30, 2018, 06:07:53 PM
Thatís bull crap. WDFW is garbage.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Skillet on May 30, 2018, 06:19:23 PM
Clearly, they realized reporting the early buy-in by the heavy hitters was discouraging sales. 

It is ALWAYS about the revenue with the WDFW, never forget that.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Skillet on May 30, 2018, 06:26:51 PM
I got on the wdfw website and saw the raffle tickets sales havenít been updated in two weeks. I emailed  them to see if they would update the ticket sales.  This is there response.

"The raffels will be updated after there deadline..."
And these are supposed to be the highly educated professionals that manage the resource?
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Bango skank on May 30, 2018, 06:27:03 PM
Id bet that the persom who replied is clueless, and sales will be updated before long.  They usually only update once every 2 or 3 weeks.  That being said, yes, posting updated sales showing whale activity does discourage people from buying, so maybe they have figured that out.  I drew a raffle tag last year, and was going to dump some $$ into it this year, but somebody else went pretty big right off the bat, so i decided not to.  Bought 10 tickets this year is all.  Why go big when odds will be significantly worse than normal?
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Bango skank on May 30, 2018, 06:29:21 PM
I got on the wdfw website and saw the raffle tickets sales havenít been updated in two weeks. I emailed  them to see if they would update the ticket sales.  This is there response.

"The raffels will be updated after there deadline..."
And these are supposed to be the highly educated professionals that manage the resource?

I saw that too.  Also "these date," not "this date."  I highly doubt this person knows anything.  Expect an update within a week.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: MtnMuley on May 30, 2018, 11:11:03 PM
Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your personal views, WDFW will be involved in a legitimate lawsuit over their raffles. That's a fact. Whether you are a "whale" or an Average Joe, you have the right to know the current sales as per the WDFW "rules" concerning raffles and how and when they will be updated. I'm disgusted WDFW hasn't learned their lesson earlier when "gambling" is involved.........
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: huntnphool on May 30, 2018, 11:20:56 PM
Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your personal views, WDFW will be involved in a legitimate lawsuit over their raffles. That's a fact. Whether you are a "whale" or an Average Joe, you have the right to know the current sales as per the WDFW "rules" concerning raffles and how and when they will be updated. I'm disgusted WDFW hasn't learned their lesson earlier when "gambling" is involved.........

 +1
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Skyvalhunter on May 31, 2018, 05:38:30 AM
Time for some transparency. Now days most info on state computers is subject to public records act
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: B4noon on May 31, 2018, 06:49:10 AM
speaking of public records and tags do the incentive permits for reporting harvest on time even exist.  I have yet to hear of any individual draw an incentive permit and we never hear of any results or reports from wdfw saying the incentive permit drawing has taken place, or hey remember to report your harvest cause bob from wenatchee harvested a nice muley buck with his incentive tag last year curious if these really do exist and if so why its such a hush hush scenario
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Timberstalker on May 31, 2018, 07:15:59 AM
speaking of public records and tags do the incentive permits for reporting harvest on time even exist.  I have yet to hear of any individual draw an incentive permit and we never hear of any results or reports from wdfw saying the incentive permit drawing has taken place, or hey remember to report your harvest cause bob from wenatchee harvested a nice muley buck with his incentive tag last year curious if these really do exist and if so why its such a hush hush scenario

There have been multiple Incentive Tags reported on this website.  Do a search.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: jagermiester on May 31, 2018, 07:22:56 AM
Odds of drawing are still better than in some regular permit hunts.  I think I may have to buy one










thousand tickets.  :chuckle:


That's kinda how I see it. I figure that being lucky is just that though and I buy one ticket in a couple of categories.
Im a little confused on how it works though. If you draw the North Central big game for example can you hunt from Sept to Dec with a rifle or can you hunt every open season with that specific weapon?
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: X-Force on May 31, 2018, 07:31:02 AM
Odds of drawing are still better than in some regular permit hunts.  I think I may have to buy one










thousand tickets.  :chuckle:


That's kinda how I see it. I figure that being lucky is just that though and I buy one ticket in a couple of categories.
Im a little confused on how it works though. If you draw the North Central big game for example can you hunt from Sept to Dec with a rifle or can you hunt every open season with that specific weapon?

Rifle, muzzleloader, Bow, crossbow... dont matter. For raffles, incentive tags or oil permits are not weapon specific unless otherwise posted (basically a couple moose permits are Archery or muzzleloader)  and the season for whatever weapon you choose...
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: ctwiggs1 on May 31, 2018, 07:33:07 AM
Odds of drawing are still better than in some regular permit hunts.  I think I may have to buy one










thousand tickets.  :chuckle:


That's kinda how I see it. I figure that being lucky is just that though and I buy one ticket in a couple of categories.
Im a little confused on how it works though. If you draw the North Central big game for example can you hunt from Sept to Dec with a rifle or can you hunt every open season with that specific weapon?

From the raffle page
Quote
If selected, any legal weapon may be used during the hunt.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: jagermiester on May 31, 2018, 07:42:52 AM
Odds of drawing are still better than in some regular permit hunts.  I think I may have to buy one










thousand tickets.  :chuckle:


That's kinda how I see it. I figure that being lucky is just that though and I buy one ticket in a couple of categories.
Im a little confused on how it works though. If you draw the North Central big game for example can you hunt from Sept to Dec with a rifle or can you hunt every open season with that specific weapon?

From the raffle page
Quote
If selected, any legal weapon may be used during the hunt.

Yeah I've always read it that way as well.
Were I am confused though is that it says " Any 200 series GMU open to deer hunting" Just got me thinking they don't mean the GMU has to be open to deer, to hunt it.

Just seems to good to be true right guys......
Could you imagine any weapon from Sept. to Dec.
Id probably get divorced over the whole thing. I love my wife, I hope I don't win.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: bobcat on May 31, 2018, 07:48:15 AM
Odds of drawing are still better than in some regular permit hunts.  I think I may have to buy one










thousand tickets.  :chuckle:


That's kinda how I see it. I figure that being lucky is just that though and I buy one ticket in a couple of categories.
Im a little confused on how it works though. If you draw the North Central big game for example can you hunt from Sept to Dec with a rifle or can you hunt every open season with that specific weapon?

From the raffle page
Quote
If selected, any legal weapon may be used during the hunt.

Yeah I've always read it that way as well.
Were I am confused though is that it says " Any 200 series GMU open to deer hunting" Just got me thinking they don't mean the GMU has to be open to deer, to hunt it.

Just seems to good to be true right guys......
Could you imagine any weapon from Sept. to Dec.
Id probably get divorced over the whole thing. I love my wife, I hope I don't win.

You can use a rifle except during an open archery or muzzleloader season.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: bobcat on May 31, 2018, 07:50:13 AM
speaking of public records and tags do the incentive permits for reporting harvest on time even exist.  I have yet to hear of any individual draw an incentive permit and we never hear of any results or reports from wdfw saying the incentive permit drawing has taken place, or hey remember to report your harvest cause bob from wenatchee harvested a nice muley buck with his incentive tag last year curious if these really do exist and if so why its such a hush hush scenario

There have been several people on this forum who have drawn incentive tags and posted about their hunt.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: ctwiggs1 on May 31, 2018, 07:51:01 AM
I thought you could use any legal weapon during any season:
If selected, any legal weapon may be used during the hunt.

So a legal rifle during archery would be acceptable wouldn't it?
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: bobcat on May 31, 2018, 07:54:18 AM
I thought you could use any legal weapon during any season:
If selected, any legal weapon may be used during the hunt.

So a legal rifle during archery would be acceptable wouldn't it?

No, I believe you would have to hunt with a bow during archery season. But there's plenty of time outside of established general seasons when you could hunt with a rifle and have it all to yourself.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: ctwiggs1 on May 31, 2018, 07:58:41 AM
Interesting.  Just for clarity I e-mailed WDFW.  We'll see what the response is.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: huntnphool on May 31, 2018, 08:30:41 AM
Odds of drawing are still better than in some regular permit hunts.  I think I may have to buy one










thousand tickets.  :chuckle:


That's kinda how I see it. I figure that being lucky is just that though and I buy one ticket in a couple of categories.
Im a little confused on how it works though. If you draw the North Central big game for example can you hunt from Sept to Dec with a rifle or can you hunt every open season with that specific weapon?

Rifle, muzzleloader, Bow, crossbow... dont matter. For raffles, incentive tags or oil permits are not weapon specific unless otherwise posted (basically a couple moose permits are Archery or muzzleloader)  and the season for whatever weapon you choose...

 "Incentive" tags are weapon specific for that particular season you are hunting. If there is no "open" season the day you are hunting, then you may use any weapon.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: ctwiggs1 on May 31, 2018, 08:51:27 AM
From the WAC for west side elk incentive permit:

Quote
Weapon: Any legal weapon, EXCEPT must use archery equipment during
archery seasons and muzzleloader equipment during muzzleloader
seasons.

From the WAC for west side elk raffle:

Quote
Weapon: Any legal weapon.

Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: X-Force on May 31, 2018, 08:54:03 AM
Thanks for the clarification.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Britt-dog on May 31, 2018, 09:01:34 AM
I thought you could use any legal weapon during any season:
If selected, any legal weapon may be used during the hunt.

So a legal rifle during archery would be acceptable wouldn't it?

Legal weapon for that season. Archery equipment during archery season ect. Similar to multi season deer and elk tags.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: ctwiggs1 on May 31, 2018, 09:06:41 AM
I thought you could use any legal weapon during any season:
If selected, any legal weapon may be used during the hunt.

So a legal rifle during archery would be acceptable wouldn't it?

Legal weapon for that season. Archery equipment during archery season ect. Similar to multi season deer and elk tags.

I don't believe that is correct.  See my last post.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: benhuntin on May 31, 2018, 10:16:37 AM
Any weapon any season I believe.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: emac on May 31, 2018, 10:55:17 AM
Incentive tags have to use the weapon of the open season during that season but in between seasons you can use whatever weapon you want
Raffle tags use whatever weapon you want when you want

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: bobcat on May 31, 2018, 11:03:41 AM
I always thought raffle tags and incentive tags were the same. Guess I was wrong. Doesn't matter since I'll never have either one. 
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Bob33 on May 31, 2018, 11:43:02 AM
Your answers are here: http://apps.leg.wa.gov/wac/default.aspx?cite=220-412-070

During auction and raffle hunts you can use any legal weapon.

Incentive hunts must abide by whatever weapons restrictions the particular season they are hunting during has. If they are hunting outside of a general season they can use any legal weapon.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: jagermiester on May 31, 2018, 12:56:13 PM
Your answers are here: http://apps.leg.wa.gov/wac/default.aspx?cite=220-412-070

During auction and raffle hunts you can use any legal weapon.

Incentive hunts must abide by whatever weapons restrictions the particular season they are hunting during has. If they are hunting outside of a general season they can use any legal weapon.

OK new question. So what about quality areas like Quilomene or Desert. Are these units open as well. Its kind of open to interpretation.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: huntnphool on May 31, 2018, 01:36:02 PM
I thought you could use any legal weapon during any season:
If selected, any legal weapon may be used during the hunt.

So a legal rifle during archery would be acceptable wouldn't it?

Legal weapon for that season. Archery equipment during archery season ect. Similar to multi season deer and elk tags.

I don't believe that is correct.  See my last post.

Pretty clear!
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Bango skank on May 31, 2018, 04:47:23 PM
I got on the wdfw website and saw the raffle tickets sales havenít been updated in two weeks. I emailed  them to see if they would update the ticket sales.  This is there response.

"The raffels will be updated after there deadline..."
And these are supposed to be the highly educated professionals that manage the resource?

I saw that too.  Also "these date," not "this date."  I highly doubt this person knows anything.  Expect an update within a week.

Updated today.  Told ya.  9/10 people who answer questions at wdfw dont have a clue.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: teanawayslayer on May 31, 2018, 10:12:52 PM
I got on the wdfw website and saw the raffle tickets sales havenít been updated in two weeks. I emailed  them to see if they would update the ticket sales.  This is there response.

"The raffels will be updated after there deadline..."
And these are supposed to be the highly educated professionals that manage the resource?

I saw that too.  Also "these date," not "this date."  I highly doubt this person knows anything.  Expect an update within a week.

Updated today.  Told ya.  9/10 people who answer questions at wdfw dont have a clue.
:tup:
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Rainier10 on June 01, 2018, 09:32:29 AM
Man that eastside elk raffle blew up.  :chuckle:
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: teanawayslayer on June 01, 2018, 10:31:10 AM
Man that eastside elk raffle blew up.  :chuckle:
no kidding wish I wouldíve just saved my 600 bucks  :chuckle:
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Westside88 on June 01, 2018, 10:42:02 AM
I know people get discouraged by those that drop big bucks on tickets, but for me it just encourages me to buy 1 or 2 in hopes of pulling a lucky break. Someoneís gonna get lucky and itís still probably better odds than some of the other draws
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: johnnyaustin44 on June 01, 2018, 11:55:33 AM
I know people get discouraged by those that drop big bucks on tickets, but for me it just encourages me to buy 1 or 2 in hopes of pulling a lucky break. Someoneís gonna get lucky and itís still probably better odds than some of the other draws
Yeah Iím with ya. Wasnít gonna play but it looks too inviting now.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: trophyhunt on June 01, 2018, 12:29:11 PM
Man that eastside elk raffle blew up.  :chuckle:
no kidding wish I wouldíve just saved my 600 bucks  :chuckle:
COACH!!!!!!  Damn him!!








 :chuckle:
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: ctwiggs1 on June 01, 2018, 12:31:31 PM
The only way to ensure you won't get drawn is to not play.  Could be the best $6 you ever spent!
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Rainier10 on June 01, 2018, 01:08:13 PM
I don't think that the big ticket buyers really hurt the odds as much as people think. I agree they do lower the odds for everyone that is buying just a few tickets.

Steve buys one ticket, Jim buys one ticket, whale buys 100 tickets, Kevin buys one, Eddie buys one, whale buys 100 and so on.  The whale is just buying a block of tickets.  It doesn't matter if he has the 100 tickets in between Jim and Kevin or just 1 ticket between Jim and Kevin.  Jim and Kevin were never going to get that ticket or tickets.

It doesn't matter if you buy one ticket or 1,000 they are still only going to draw one winning ticket.

I think the guy that buys one or 10 tickets doesn't care what his odds are, he is just happy to be in the game and have a chance.  The guy buying 1,000 is trying to hedge his odds but it's still a game of chance and I am just not sure the odds are that much greater.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Stein on June 01, 2018, 01:18:57 PM
I don't think that the big ticket buyers really hurt the odds as much as people think. I agree they do lower the odds for everyone that is buying just a few tickets.

Steve buys one ticket, Jim buys one ticket, whale buys 100 tickets, Kevin buys one, Eddie buys one, whale buys 100 and so on.  The whale is just buying a block of tickets.  It doesn't matter if he has the 100 tickets in between Jim and Kevin or just 1 ticket between Jim and Kevin.  Jim and Kevin were never going to get that ticket or tickets.

It doesn't matter if you buy one ticket or 1,000 they are still only going to draw one winning ticket.

I think the guy that buys one or 10 tickets doesn't care what his odds are, he is just happy to be in the game and have a chance.  The guy buying 1,000 is trying to hedge his odds but it's still a game of chance and I am just not sure the odds are that much greater.

In your example, if the whale shows up, Jim's odds are 1/105 = .9%.  If the whale doesn't show up, Jim's odds are 1/4 = 25% or 27 times greater.  Whales make huge differences in the odds, but they don't always win and it would be pretty sweet to be the guy who won with a few bucks worth of tickets.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Karl Blanchard on June 01, 2018, 01:23:56 PM
I don't think that the big ticket buyers really hurt the odds as much as people think. I agree they do lower the odds for everyone that is buying just a few tickets.

Steve buys one ticket, Jim buys one ticket, whale buys 100 tickets, Kevin buys one, Eddie buys one, whale buys 100 and so on.  The whale is just buying a block of tickets.  It doesn't matter if he has the 100 tickets in between Jim and Kevin or just 1 ticket between Jim and Kevin.  Jim and Kevin were never going to get that ticket or tickets.

It doesn't matter if you buy one ticket or 1,000 they are still only going to draw one winning ticket.

I think the guy that buys one or 10 tickets doesn't care what his odds are, he is just happy to be in the game and have a chance.  The guy buying 1,000 is trying to hedge his odds but it's still a game of chance and I am just not sure the odds are that much greater.

In your example, if the whale shows up, Jim's odds are 1/105 = .9%.  If the whale doesn't show up, Jim's odds are 1/4 = 25% or 27 times greater.  Whales make huge differences in the odds, but they don't always win and it would be pretty sweet to be the guy who won with a few bucks worth of tickets.
  while you are correct, the raffles aren't meant to make opportunity.  They are mean to raise revenue.  No whale= less revenue.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Rainier10 on June 01, 2018, 01:36:13 PM
I don't think that the big ticket buyers really hurt the odds as much as people think. I agree they do lower the odds for everyone that is buying just a few tickets.

Steve buys one ticket, Jim buys one ticket, whale buys 100 tickets, Kevin buys one, Eddie buys one, whale buys 100 and so on.  The whale is just buying a block of tickets.  It doesn't matter if he has the 100 tickets in between Jim and Kevin or just 1 ticket between Jim and Kevin.  Jim and Kevin were never going to get that ticket or tickets.

It doesn't matter if you buy one ticket or 1,000 they are still only going to draw one winning ticket.

I think the guy that buys one or 10 tickets doesn't care what his odds are, he is just happy to be in the game and have a chance.  The guy buying 1,000 is trying to hedge his odds but it's still a game of chance and I am just not sure the odds are that much greater.

In your example, if the whale shows up, Jim's odds are 1/105 = .9%.  If the whale doesn't show up, Jim's odds are 1/4 = 25% or 27 times greater.  Whales make huge differences in the odds, but they don't always win and it would be pretty sweet to be the guy who won with a few bucks worth of tickets.
Either way the whale is going to show up.  He is either going to buy one ticket if he is limited to only one or buy 100.  If the whale is only allowed to buy 1 ticket there are more people that say that they would play the raffle game again decreasing your odds.

Again I said think that the whales decrease your odds, I just don't think they decrease them as much as people think.

Using your numbers with 4 tickets sold versus 105 tickets it is a big difference.  But we aren't talking about 4 tickets or 105 tickets.  Eastside elk had 4,200 tickets sold last year and so far this year 5,400 have been sold.  A guy with 1 ticket right now has a .0185%chance of winning, a guy with 100 tickets has a 1% chance.  Yep the guy with a 1% chance is way better off than the guy with one ticket.  Is he planning his hunt and expecting to draw since he is 50 times more likely to draw than the guy with one ticket?  No way, his odds are still slim.  Even if you had 1,000 tickets right now you have a 20 percent chance of winning.  That means you would have an 80% chance of losing.  So spend $6,000 to get 1,000 elk raffle tickets and give yourself an 80% chance to donate that $6,000 to the WDFW.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: bearpaw on June 01, 2018, 01:53:28 PM
Someone must have spotted a big bull!
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: huntnphool on June 01, 2018, 02:15:08 PM
I don't think that the big ticket buyers really hurt the odds as much as people think. I agree they do lower the odds for everyone that is buying just a few tickets.

Steve buys one ticket, Jim buys one ticket, whale buys 100 tickets, Kevin buys one, Eddie buys one, whale buys 100 and so on.  The whale is just buying a block of tickets.  It doesn't matter if he has the 100 tickets in between Jim and Kevin or just 1 ticket between Jim and Kevin.  Jim and Kevin were never going to get that ticket or tickets.

It doesn't matter if you buy one ticket or 1,000 they are still only going to draw one winning ticket.

I think the guy that buys one or 10 tickets doesn't care what his odds are, he is just happy to be in the game and have a chance.  The guy buying 1,000 is trying to hedge his odds but it's still a game of chance and I am just not sure the odds are that much greater.

In your example, if the whale shows up, Jim's odds are 1/105 = .9%.  If the whale doesn't show up, Jim's odds are 1/4 = 25% or 27 times greater.  Whales make huge differences in the odds, but they don't always win and it would be pretty sweet to be the guy who won with a few bucks worth of tickets.
No whale= less revenue.

 Unfortunately that has yet to be proven.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: Stein on June 01, 2018, 02:50:20 PM
I think it is certain that if you capped it the revenue would drop.  If people are not buying because of the odds, once the cap was in place and more people bought, the odds would go back down to where they were when people stopped buying because of the odds.

It's just a different version of the Governor's tag but everybody gets at least some shot at it.
Title: Re: 2018 raffle tickets
Post by: .257mag on June 01, 2018, 10:31:54 PM
I think it is certain that if you capped it the revenue would drop.  If people are not buying because of the odds, once the cap was in place and more people bought, the odds would go back down to where they were when people stopped buying because of the odds.

It's just a different version of the Governor's tag but everybody gets at least some shot at it.

Correct.....whale - Joe population = x
Joe population - whale also = x