Hunting Washington Forum

Big Game Hunting => Elk Hunting => Topic started by: beauhunter on May 09, 2019, 08:05:15 AM

Title: "points" is there really a point
Post by: beauhunter on May 09, 2019, 08:05:15 AM
For the longest time people acquire points to try their hand at the lottery we all anticipate in the big game "draw" but every year your chances are depleting. I had a discussion about this system that wdfw uses with a fellow gambler in the big game lottery and realized that most people have no idea how it actually works. Most people think the more points they have the better their chances.  Not so much. This is the reality your points are squared then a computer assigns random numbers then you are assigned the lowest RANDOM number that was generated and enter into the drawing with one number. It's not like a raffle the more points you have the more entries, each person enters with one random number. Sorry to those who already knew this for the history lesson but it's was mind blowing of the amount of people I talk to that think they have 400 entries cause the have 20 points
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Stein on May 09, 2019, 08:12:28 AM
You do get 400 "entries", they just drop all random numbers but the lowest one.

That said, the odds are so long that even if your odds double, it doesn't really matter.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: JimmyHoffa on May 09, 2019, 08:25:11 AM
Right, each of the 400 gets a random assigned and the lowest is entered into the draw.  400 random numbers (20 pts) has a better chance of having lower number than 100 random numbers (10 pts).
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: beauhunter on May 09, 2019, 08:39:31 AM
But it is not impossible for someone who only has 1 point to be assigned #1, that's why it's is more a lottery then a drawing
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Stein on May 09, 2019, 08:46:50 AM
What's the difference between a lottery and drawing?  In any bonus point system, it is random and there is a possibility that a guy with one can draw while a guy with 1000 might not.  Same with the lottery, one ticket can win.  Same with a drawing, one ticket can win.  It's a simple math discussion and I agree most don't understand and greatly overvalue their points.

The issue is that people with 10 or 20 points think they have an advantage when they don't realize how many other people have the same advantage.  This is because all point systems need to clear out max point holders every year or they end up in the same situation.  WA is already there and has been for several years and other states are on their way. 
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: BULLBLASTER on May 09, 2019, 08:52:37 AM
Yes the guy with 1 point can be assigned #1 but the guy with 20 points has 399 more chances to be #1 than the guy with 1 point. The system works as it was designed too, it is just a terrible system.  :twocents:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: JimmyHoffa on May 09, 2019, 08:58:55 AM
Agree Stein.  The throughput rate is negative.  The points are entering faster than they are exiting, so there's an accumulation (when squared) that is really increasing and in most cases the value of the points decreases annually. About ten years ago I seem to remember some lesser known permits with little interest (anterless, much on private land) where more were leaving than coming in, so a few guys figured it out and were getting tags fairly regularly.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Brute on May 09, 2019, 09:00:21 AM
 It's not Points it's Year's.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: beauhunter on May 09, 2019, 09:15:10 AM
So humor me.  what exactly is the point to "square" points. Why not if you have 20 points get 20 numbers,
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Bob33 on May 09, 2019, 09:26:30 AM
The guy with 21 points may have slightly worse odds than he did the year before when he had 20 points. However, with 21 points he will always have better odds than someone with 20 points and far greater odds than someone with one point.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Woodchuck on May 09, 2019, 09:26:52 AM
So humor me.  what exactly is the point to "square" points. Why not if you have 20 points get 20 numbers,
To give you false hope, it doesn't change the odds.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: kentrek on May 09, 2019, 09:41:52 AM
Why play if it sucks so bad ?....you go into this knowing your odds are terrible esp with tag numbers dropping so much..do you bank on winning the lottery? Then why bank on getting some of these tags....its just as bad in other states regardless of the system...I'm in for 8 states this year an still havent drawn....but that was my choice

You also cant change the amount of people changing which permit they put in for....heck one year your odds could go up or down just based off podcast with Steven rhinella.....

Dont choose to be miserable.. This is an awesome time we are living in
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: beauhunter on May 09, 2019, 10:15:01 AM
No one said anything about suck or bad we were just talking about the process and understanding it and yes I do play the lottery and think I am going to win otherwise why play. However if you start a lottery with 60-70/1 odds and then go to hundreds to 1 can't help feeling a little mislead lottery has always remained millions to one.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Karl Blanchard on May 09, 2019, 10:28:17 AM
If a guy feels he has been misled or tricked he must only look in the mirror to see the reason. We are all grown adults with the ability to look things up rcw's or game laws.  We all have a phone we can use to call wdfw licensing officials who would be happy to explain how the draws work.  Instead however, most choose to stay uninformed and just complain about how they didn't draw a Colockum quality rifle rut tag because they have 15pts and the game regs say it's a 14pt average (there is only 1 tag :chuckle:).  Knowledge is power.  The better you understand how these systems work (not just in WA) the more calculated you will be with your application strategy which will result in more tags.   :twocents:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Mr Mykiss on May 09, 2019, 10:49:35 AM
If a guy feels he has been misled or tricked he must only look in the mirror to see the reason. We are all grown adults with the ability to look things up rcw's or game laws.  We all have a phone we can use to call wdfw licensing officials who would be happy to explain how the draws work.  Instead however, most choose to stay uninformed and just complain about how they didn't draw a Colockum quality rifle rut tag because they have 15pts and the game regs say it's a 14pt average (there is only 1 tag :chuckle:).  Knowledge is power.  The better you understand how these systems work (not just in WA) the more calculated you will be with your application strategy which will result in more tags.   :twocents:
I have many "application strategy" consultants, they all work for free and they all hate their jobs...
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: bobcat on May 09, 2019, 11:00:54 AM
So humor me.  what exactly is the point to "square" points. Why not if you have 20 points get 20 numbers,
To give you false hope, it doesn't change the odds.

Squaring points does give better odds. Why would it give someone false hope? Only for those who don't understand how it works. 20 points squared gives you 400 chances, which gives you a 20 times greater chance of being drawn than if the points weren't squared.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Woodchuck on May 09, 2019, 11:09:47 AM
Except everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: ljsommer on May 09, 2019, 11:18:20 AM
Dont choose to be miserable.. This is an awesome time we are living in

This should probably be sticked. Just create a subform called "Special tags in WA" and then sticky this quote.

I do second the post that mentioned that understanding a system is useful. There's definitely a contradiction between "We need more hunters" and "Your odds are going way, way, way down every single year". It feels like they should be inline at best, or neutral at worst.
"More people, fewer (percentage) winners" is the core tenet of a pyramid scheme.

That said, WA is gorgeous and our OTC tag options are far bigger than I imagined when I got into this sport. The more time I spend on keyboard-scouting the more I realize that I don't have *any room at all* to complain about anything until I've really gotten out there and see what all an OTC tag can offer, and frankly, that's going to take me about 50 years. So if you see me on here complaining from now until about 2070, remind me of this post ;)
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: jackelope on May 09, 2019, 11:21:27 AM
The guy with 21 points may have slightly worse odds than he did the year before when he had 20 points. However, with 21 points he will always have better odds than someone with 20 points and far greater odds than someone with one point.

It doesn't have to be significantly better...it just has to be "better" to be accurate.
My odds with 10 points are .025%. My odds with 20 points are .015%. What...they're better...

:chuckle:

Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: bobcat on May 09, 2019, 11:22:10 AM
Well, what does change is those who draw and lose their points, go into the draw the following year with only one point. The problem is too many applicants for not enough permits to clear people with high points out of the system. It was much better before they created all the additional categories back in 2010(?)

Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Woodchuck on May 09, 2019, 11:25:42 AM
Well, what does change is those who draw and lose their points, go into the draw the following year with only one point. The problem is too many applicants for not enough permits to clear people with high points out of the system. It was much better before they created all the additional categories back in 2010(?)
That sir is absolutely correct.  :tup:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: bobcat on May 09, 2019, 11:32:05 AM
You know what's really stupid is using the point system for the moose, sheep, and goat draws. Those should be a 100% random draw. Just think, 30 years from now many people will be at 50+ points. Just so dumb. If there aren't enough tags to cycle most applicants through the system in say ten years or so, then it shouldn't be on a point system, in my opinion.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: X-Force on May 09, 2019, 11:34:13 AM
In washington points arent the issue the issue is categories and the ability to have multiple applications across every permitted species. Though I would strongly support having no points at all.

With a finite amount of available permits there should be a more discerning amount of options available.

We enjoy OTC Cougar, Bear, Deer and Elk so IMO there is no reason to have such a broad application system.

There are roughly 24,000 deer, elk, moose, sheep and goat permits issued every year and there is roughly 50,000 (probably less) people applying for them. Simply changing the application to 1 species and 1 or 2 options would drastically increase odd of people drawing permits they really want because they would have to be more discerning about their applications.

No one wants to make a choice, instead they want their cake and eat it too... and WDFW wants revenue so our current system is a win win.  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: BULLBLASTER on May 09, 2019, 11:38:40 AM
In washington points arent the issue the issue is categories and the ability to have multiple applications across every permitted species. Though I would strongly support having no points at all.

With a finite amount of available permits there should be a more discerning amount of options available.

We enjoy OTC Cougar, Bear, Deer and Elk so IMO there is no reason to have such a broad application system.

There are roughly 24,000 deer, elk, moose, sheep and goat permits issued every year and there is roughly 50,000 (probably less) people applying for them. Simply changing the application to 1 species and 1 or 2 options would drastically increase odd of people drawing permits they really want because they would have to be more discerning about their applications.

No one wants to make a choice, instead they want their cake and eat it too... and WDFW wants revenue so our current system is a win win.  :rolleyes:

 :yeah: itís been said many many times and in many many ways but this post is exactly right!
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: SuperX on May 09, 2019, 12:04:23 PM
You know what's really stupid is using the point system for the moose, sheep, and goat draws. Those should be a 100% random draw. Just think, 30 years from now many people will be at 50+ points. Just so dumb. If there aren't enough tags to cycle most applicants through the system in say ten years or so, then it shouldn't be on a point system, in my opinion.
Agree though I think in 10 years, judging by moose population declines further east and predator proliferation, we'll be lucky to have any draw at all. 
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: JimmyHoffa on May 09, 2019, 12:04:59 PM
You know what's really stupid is using the point system for the moose, sheep, and goat draws. Those should be a 100% random draw. Just think, 30 years from now many people will be at 50+ points. Just so dumb. If there aren't enough tags to cycle most applicants through the system in say ten years or so, then it shouldn't be on a point system, in my opinion.
I think WDFW tries to figure on the people paying for points only.  But the high number of people that don't mess with those species due to the competition having built so many points costs them new people.  Which is a bigger revenue/cost, though?  :dunno: 
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: milldozer on May 09, 2019, 12:16:25 PM
Everyone should keep their points.  You should be able to submit 1 special permit application: deer, elk, moose, goat, etc.  Anything, but you can only pick 1 per year.  That 1 application should cost ~70 to makeup for the lost revenue from dropping multiple applications (assuming everyone submits for all quality/oil tags).  WDFW would keep their revenue, and hunters would be able to draw quality hunts on a more realistic interval.  Personally, if I had drawn a quality tag I wouldn't want another one the same year.  I don't really see a down side.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Stein on May 09, 2019, 12:31:25 PM
Everyone should keep their points.  You should be able to submit 1 special permit application: deer, elk, moose, goat, etc.  Anything, but you can only pick 1 per year.  That 1 application should cost ~70 to makeup for the lost revenue from dropping multiple applications (assuming everyone submits for all quality/oil tags).  WDFW would keep their revenue, and hunters would be able to draw quality hunts on a more realistic interval.  Personally, if I had drawn a quality tag I wouldn't want another one the same year.  I don't really see a down side.

A bunch of people like being able to apply for multiple tags per year even if the odds are lower.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: SteelheadTed on May 09, 2019, 01:00:59 PM
Except everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.

I'm not sure I understand.  With more points your odds improve BECAUSE you have more entries. 
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: milldozer on May 09, 2019, 01:07:32 PM
I can see that, but what is the point of applying for a bunch of tags every year if you can't reasonably expect to draw one in your lifetime?  I did some quick math on the a few of the premier quality tags based on last years draw data..  For Entiat, an applicant with 10 points had a .5% chance to draw a tag.  15 points was 1.11% and 20 was 2%.  Disclaimer: I am no mathematician, but even if I'm off by a factor of 2 the odds are still abysmal.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: JimmyHoffa on May 09, 2019, 01:12:14 PM
Except everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.

I'm not sure I understand.  With more points your odds improve BECAUSE you have more entries.
But if everyone else gains a point, a few new players join and not many high point holders leave, then the overall number of points goes up more than the number of people coming/going; so overall the odds will go down. ( I think that is what he's saying.)
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Stein on May 09, 2019, 01:15:22 PM
Yeah, it's the truth.  If you have 19 points this year, you have better odds now than next year with 20 points.  It initially sounds backwards, but it's what happens with these types of schemes where you don't clear enough people out every year.

This year will be the best odds you ever have at any of the hard to draw tags (quality and OIL).

If you don't draw, your odds go down next year, the year after, the year after.....
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: X-Force on May 09, 2019, 01:17:23 PM
I can see that, but what is the point of applying for a bunch of tags every year if you can't reasonably expect to draw one in your lifetime?  I did some quick math on the a few of the premier quality tags based on last years draw data..  For Entiat, an applicant with 10 points had a .5% chance to draw a tag.  15 points was 1.11% and 20 was 2%.  Disclaimer: I am no mathematician, but even if I'm off by a factor of 2 the odds are still abysmal.

 :chuckle: those are GOhunt odds.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Woodchuck on May 09, 2019, 01:21:49 PM
Except everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.

I'm not sure I understand.  With more points your odds improve BECAUSE you have more entries.
What I mean is that your odds don't change because of the squaring. The thing is that as your points go up, so does everyone else's points that don't draw, the proportion stays the same versus everyone else in the pool. The fact that the permit numbers are dwindling and we can't even clear out the max point holders means that as the years go by, the value of your points actually is dwindling.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: NOCK NOCK on May 09, 2019, 01:26:20 PM
The guy with 21 points may have slightly worse odds than he did the year before when he had 20 points. However, with 21 points he will always have better odds than someone with 20 points and far greater odds than someone with one point.


24 x 24 = 576
25 x 25 = 625 ~ 49 more than 24,s
26 x 26 = 676 ~ 51 more than 25ís
27 x 27 = 729 ~ 53 more than 26ís
For every applicant that your 1 point ahead of you get 2 extra chances  :chuckle:
Those who have obtained bonus/awarded points get an even greater advantage  :chuckle: :chuckle:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: milldozer on May 09, 2019, 02:00:59 PM
I can see that, but what is the point of applying for a bunch of tags every year if you can't reasonably expect to draw one in your lifetime?  I did some quick math on the a few of the premier quality tags based on last years draw data..  For Entiat, an applicant with 10 points had a .5% chance to draw a tag.  15 points was 1.11% and 20 was 2%.  Disclaimer: I am no mathematician, but even if I'm off by a factor of 2 the odds are still abysmal.

 :chuckle: those are GOhunt odds.
.
X-Force, care to share the GoHunt odds for that draw?  I just made a quick excel spreadsheet.  Curious how close I was.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: kentrek on May 09, 2019, 02:03:18 PM
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Buckhunter24 on May 09, 2019, 02:07:27 PM
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: BULLBLASTER on May 09, 2019, 03:25:31 PM
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop

Remember you are buying a chance at drawing the tag, not just a point.
Youíll never draw if you donít apply. People draw with low points every year.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Karl Blanchard on May 09, 2019, 04:13:57 PM
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop

Remember you are buying a chance at drawing the tag, not just a point.
Youíll never draw if you donít apply. People draw with low points every year.
well not every year.  Some are on an every other year cycle
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: X-Force on May 09, 2019, 04:20:20 PM
I can see that, but what is the point of applying for a bunch of tags every year if you can't reasonably expect to draw one in your lifetime?  I did some quick math on the a few of the premier quality tags based on last years draw data..  For Entiat, an applicant with 10 points had a .5% chance to draw a tag.  15 points was 1.11% and 20 was 2%.  Disclaimer: I am no mathematician, but even if I'm off by a factor of 2 the odds are still abysmal.

 :chuckle: those are GOhunt odds.
.
X-Force, care to share the GoHunt odds for that draw?  I just made a quick excel spreadsheet.  Curious how close I was.

For eniat quality rifle deer they are .5, 1.1, 2
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: avidnwoutdoorsman on May 09, 2019, 04:31:07 PM
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/hunting/permits/2018_bull_elk_drawing_results_by_hunt_number.pdf

Bull Elk Drawing 2018, who was selected with how many points... can see any other permit hunt as well.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: milldozer on May 09, 2019, 04:34:55 PM
I can see that, but what is the point of applying for a bunch of tags every year if you can't reasonably expect to draw one in your lifetime?  I did some quick math on the a few of the premier quality tags based on last years draw data..  For Entiat, an applicant with 10 points had a .5% chance to draw a tag.  15 points was 1.11% and 20 was 2%.  Disclaimer: I am no mathematician, but even if I'm off by a factor of 2 the odds are still abysmal.

 :chuckle: those are GOhunt odds.
.
X-Force, care to share the GoHunt odds for that draw?  I just made a quick excel spreadsheet.  Curious how close I was.

For eniat quality rifle deer they are .5, 1.1, 2

Hot damn!  Right on the money.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: avidnwoutdoorsman on May 09, 2019, 04:41:42 PM
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/hunting/permits/2018_bull_elk_drawing_results_by_hunt_number.pdf

Bull Elk Drawing 2018, who was selected with how many points... can see any other permit hunt as well.

Sorry, you asked for Quality Elk

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/hunting/permits/2018_quality_elk_drawing_results_by_hunt_number.pdf
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Stein on May 09, 2019, 05:06:09 PM
The real point in points is to get people to apply year after year and not skip years or give up because you have the "investment" to protect.  I know the math and odds and it still half killed me to pull the plug on the state this year.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: BULLBLASTER on May 09, 2019, 07:16:43 PM
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop

Remember you are buying a chance at drawing the tag, not just a point.
Youíll never draw if you donít apply. People draw with low points every year.
well not every year.  Some are on an every other year cycle
:bash: I didnít mean the same person every year. But I guess some people just get it.  :chuckle:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Bullkllr on May 09, 2019, 07:20:51 PM
I now have a headache.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: carlyoungs on May 09, 2019, 07:58:52 PM
I responded earlier in this thread.  It is a lottery and some what cheap gamble in my opinion.  Pretty much all categories and throw in some oils.  What does that cost? A half days work to a full days work depending on pay.
The thing is if you draw you get a tag that most people could fill without too much effort. If you dont draw you still get over the counter hunting for a chance to fill your tag. I would say if you are a dedicated hunter you have a pretty good chance at filling your tag or getting a close chance to.
The price for the apps and tags to apply really isn't that bad if you think about it. Apply for decent hunts, and draw odds, maybe get drawn and if not hunt hard and fill your otc tag. And if that doesn't work out for you drive over to Idaho and pay $600 bucks and tag out.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: ljsommer on May 10, 2019, 06:59:29 AM
And if that doesn't work out for you drive over to Idaho and pay $600 bucks and tag out.

That's my plan in 2020!
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: DOUBLELUNG on May 10, 2019, 02:59:19 PM
Regardless of how the drawings are done, odds of drawing a high-demand permit are and will continue to be low.  If I were to make one change, it would be to remove from the big game pamphlet the average number of points of successful applicants the previous year, this greatly contributes to the misconception that applicants are "getting close to drawing" when their points approach or exceed that number. 

My own approach is to not buy ghost points, I only apply for hunts.  If I know I couldn't wouldn't be able to do that hunt, I save a few bucks on the special permit application for that hunt.  It doesn't bother me at all that as a result I have worse odds in future years, higher numbers of points do improve your odds but they all remain incredibly long is the reality.  That the points I accrue give me slightly better odds is like saying your odds of winning the Powerball is better than mine because I bought one ticket and you bought 20.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: X-Force on May 10, 2019, 04:16:47 PM
For premium most permits your odds do not increase every year with the accumulation of points they actually remain the same or go down because everyone else is also increasing in points with no reduction of applications so that your points difference as a total sum of points actually remains the same or goes down.

 People say that because we do not have a preference point system we do not have point creep but we do have a point creep because there are not enough permits turn over the number of applications.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Bob33 on May 10, 2019, 04:29:50 PM
For premium most permits your odds do not increase every year with the accumulation of points they actually remain the same or go down because everyone else is also increasing in points with no reduction of applications so that your points difference as a total sum of points actually remains the same or goes down.

 People say that because we do not have a preference point system we do not have point creep but we do have a point creep because there are not enough permits turn over the number of applications.
That is generally true for those in the upper ends of the point ranges. For applicants at the lower end they do increase year-to-year. For example an applicant with one point has one name in that hat; the second year he has four: a 300% increase. (Thatís also why those at the upper end donít increase, because of the exponential increase in points from those to the lower end.) It seems that the break-even point is usually about the middle of the points range.

That said it is still true that someone with 20 points who applies will have better odds next year with 21 points than if he hadnít applied.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: SteelheadTed on May 14, 2019, 12:58:52 PM
Except everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.

I'm not sure I understand.  With more points your odds improve BECAUSE you have more entries.
What I mean is that your odds don't change because of the squaring. The thing is that as your points go up, so does everyone else's points that don't draw, the proportion stays the same versus everyone else in the pool. The fact that the permit numbers are dwindling and we can't even clear out the max point holders means that as the years go by, the value of your points actually is dwindling.

Your last sentence is really getting at point creep, a related but different issue.  Squaring does increase your odds as you acquire points and is more advantageous for those with higher points (since it is an exponential increase over time).  If you want to argue odds are getting worse overtime since more people are entering the draws than are exiting the drawings (because they drew a tag), I agree and that is happening all over the West.  But that isn't related to real odds necessarily.  If I have one point and you have 4, you have 16 times better odds then me.  Squaring does make a difference (though I think serves to discourage new hunters in the process).
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: SuperX on May 14, 2019, 01:12:49 PM
Except everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.

I'm not sure I understand.  With more points your odds improve BECAUSE you have more entries.
What I mean is that your odds don't change because of the squaring. The thing is that as your points go up, so does everyone else's points that don't draw, the proportion stays the same versus everyone else in the pool. The fact that the permit numbers are dwindling and we can't even clear out the max point holders means that as the years go by, the value of your points actually is dwindling.

Your last sentence is really getting at point creep, a related but different issue.  Squaring does increase your odds as you acquire points and is more advantageous for those with higher points (since it is an exponential increase over time).  If you want to argue odds are getting worse overtime since more people are entering the draws than are exiting the drawings (because they drew a tag), I agree and that is happening all over the West.  But that isn't related to real odds necessarily.  If I have one point and you have 4, you have 16 times better odds then me.  Squaring does make a difference (though I think serves to discourage new hunters in the process).
Squaring weeds out the 1 pointers, new hunters like you say.  If I've got 4 points I'll have 16 chances.  If I've got 8 points I'll have 64 chances.  Without squaring, my 8 points would be twice your 4 points, after squaring it is 4 times more than your 16 points.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: beauhunter on May 14, 2019, 02:08:47 PM
Yes it gives you more chances to get  a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawn
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: bobcat on May 14, 2019, 02:25:50 PM
Yes it gives you more chances to get  a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawn

It sure does increase your chances. A low number, relative to other applicants' lowest number is HOW you get drawn for a particular hunt. If you don't think squaring points increases a person's chance of being drawn, then you don't understand how the draw works.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: blackveltbowhunter on May 14, 2019, 03:18:35 PM
 :yeah:

    Besides not understanding how the draw works ( which I will not attempt to explain ) I think there is confusion regarding some of the lingo. I will do my best to add to the confusion :chuckle:

   Preference Point. Not applicable in Washington.  The more points you have the smaller the pool of applicants you are entered into for a given tag. This can vary greatly from hunt to hunt. For highly coveted hunts odds with many applicants often times getting to the pool itself is impossible much less being chosen. Point Creep is becoming very visible.

   Bonus Point. Same Pool as all other applicants. But more opportunities to get picked from that pool. Point creep is still an issue, because although your odds go up, so do every other person entering the pool. 
   
   Point Creep. Occurs when significant applicants are not moved through the pool and begins to significantly decrease odds of drawing a given tag. IE..... OIL, or highly coveted units or rut hunts. Because so few tags are drawn, there are many many applicants with large numbers of points entering the pool.

  PERSONAL ODDS VS OVERALL ODDS!!! This seems to be a biggie..... If you have decent amounts of points and are looking for the simple solution here it is. This year will likely be your best odds of drawing the hunt your applying for! Don't ghost point. Next year OVERALL odds of drawing a particular coveted hunt will likely decrease because out of the 100 applicants that applied this year only one left the pool. (Hopefully it was someone with more points than you, and it wont be it will be the guy who was first time ever, never set foot in weneha :chuckle:) And Next year there will be 99 folks going in with squared points pushing OVERALL odds back down again.  However YOUR odds with 10 points are 100x better than the new guy with 1. So your points are working great to give you an advantage over others with less points, but they are lacking at working to improve your odds of drawing a particular hunt. Especially if that hunt is a coveted permit.

 
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: SteelheadTed on May 15, 2019, 12:34:11 PM
Yes it gives you more chances to get  a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawn

That is precisely why you would have better odds, because you have a lower number.  I am trying to understand what some folks don't understand about this but the math is clear, more points = better odds.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Stein on May 15, 2019, 12:48:56 PM
Yes it gives you more chances to get  a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawn

That is precisely why you would have better odds, because you have a lower number.  I am trying to understand what some folks don't understand about this but the math is clear, more points = better odds.

That is true, but it is more nuanced.  0.2% is better odds than 0.15% mathematically, but in reality it is the same thing.  Also, your "better" odds go down over time.  The misunderstanding is that by accumulating points, you are moving to a point in time where your odds go up until you have great or even guaranteed odds to draw a certain tag.  The reality as several have said is that your odds are likely better now at X points than they will be in 10 years with X+10 points.  That's what 95% of hunters don't understand.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Woodchuck on May 15, 2019, 01:00:38 PM
Yes it gives you more chances to get  a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawn

That is precisely why you would have better odds, because you have a lower number.  I am trying to understand what some folks don't understand about this but the math is clear, more points = better odds.

That is true, but it is more nuanced.  0.2% is better odds than 0.15% mathematically, but in reality it is the same thing.  Also, your "better" odds go down over time.  The misunderstanding is that by accumulating points, you are moving to a point in time where your odds go up until you have great or even guaranteed odds to draw a certain tag.  The reality as several have said is that your odds are likely better now at X points than they will be in 10 years with X+10 points.  That's what 95% of hunters don't understand.
Thank you for making the words I couldn't without sounding like an overly sarcastic jerk.  :tup:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: beauhunter on May 15, 2019, 01:13:29 PM
Well take peaches ridge drawing, 1706 applications, say that each person has 10 points that puts in. That means there will be 170,600 random numbers generated and each applicant will get their lowest RANDOM number assigned.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: bobcat on May 15, 2019, 01:16:18 PM
The person with 1 point gets 1 random number. The person with 10 points gets 100 random numbers. Who is more likely to have the lowest number?
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: beauhunter on May 15, 2019, 01:24:59 PM
Ask all the people that have 15 and above points the likelihood. F&g use to show a spreadsheet of how many points each category was drawn with and most were in the lower end 8-12
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Skillet on May 15, 2019, 01:43:32 PM
The person with 1 point gets 1 random number. The person with 10 points gets 100 random numbers. Who is more likely to have the lowest number?
For the single year that only two people apply for the one available tag, one guy with one point and one with 10 points, clearly the guy with 10 points has better odds.

But that never happens, nor will it.  A more appropriate analogy-

The guy with 10 points this year goes in a hat against the 9 guys with 4 points this year.

Last year, he had 9 points (representing 81 chances) against 10 guys with their total of 3 points (representing 90 chances).  That gave him a 81 in 171 chance of getting the lowest number assigned, or 47.36% odds. 

But, one of the 3 point guys drew his tag, so now there's a single 10 point guy and only nine 4 point guys for this year.  Slam dunk, right? 

Nope.

This year he has 10 points for 100 chances vs. the other 9 guys' 4 points for 144 cumulative chances.  That gives him a 100 in 244 chance of getting the lowest number, or 40.98% odds.

He's losing ground, and that's with nobody else getting into the draws.  My example is a bit extreme, the actual reduction in year-over-year odds are very small, but make no mistake - odds to draw for the higher point holders go down every year.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Bob33 on May 15, 2019, 02:03:53 PM
The person with 1 point gets 1 random number. The person with 10 points gets 100 random numbers. Who is more likely to have the lowest number?
For the single year that only two people apply for the one available tag, one guy with one point and one with 10 points, clearly the guy with 10 points has better odds.

But that never happens, nor will it.  A more appropriate analogy-

The guy with 10 points this year goes in a hat against the 9 guys with 4 points this year.

Last year, he had 9 points (representing 81 chances) against 10 guys with their total of 3 points (representing 90 chances).  That gave him a 81 in 171 chance of getting the lowest number assigned, or 47.36% odds. 

But, one of the 3 point guys drew his tag, so now there's a single 10 point guy and only nine 4 point guys for this year.  Slam dunk, right? 

Nope.

This year he has 10 points for 100 chances vs. the other 9 guys' 4 points for 144 cumulative chances.  That gives him a 100 in 244 chance of getting the lowest number, or 40.98% odds.

He's losing ground, and that's with nobody else getting into the draws.  My example is a bit extreme, the actual reduction in year-over-year odds are very small, but make no mistake - odds to draw for the higher point holders go down every year.
Bobcat's point is that the applicant with ten points will have better odds than the applicant with one point. That will be true regardless of what his own odds do year-to-year.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: vandeman17 on May 15, 2019, 02:23:05 PM
All I know is that unless the format changes, if/when I draw something, it will be the last application for me in that category. I am sitting on 14 quality deer points and would be absolutely shocked if I drew this year, or in the next 5-10.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Skillet on May 15, 2019, 02:25:17 PM
The person with 1 point gets 1 random number. The person with 10 points gets 100 random numbers. Who is more likely to have the lowest number?
For the single year that only two people apply for the one available tag, one guy with one point and one with 10 points, clearly the guy with 10 points has better odds.

But that never happens, nor will it.  A more appropriate analogy-

The guy with 10 points this year goes in a hat against the 9 guys with 4 points this year.

Last year, he had 9 points (representing 81 chances) against 10 guys with their total of 3 points (representing 90 chances).  That gave him a 81 in 171 chance of getting the lowest number assigned, or 47.36% odds. 

But, one of the 3 point guys drew his tag, so now there's a single 10 point guy and only nine 4 point guys for this year.  Slam dunk, right? 

Nope.

This year he has 10 points for 100 chances vs. the other 9 guys' 4 points for 144 cumulative chances.  That gives him a 100 in 244 chance of getting the lowest number, or 40.98% odds.

He's losing ground, and that's with nobody else getting into the draws.  My example is a bit extreme, the actual reduction in year-over-year odds are very small, but make no mistake - odds to draw for the higher point holders go down every year.
Bobcat's point is that the applicant with ten points will have better odds than the applicant with one point. That will be true regardless of what his own odds do year-to-year.
Sure, but that's like me complaining about my taxes going way up this year, and somebody else simply saying "I paid $5000 in taxes" without saying what they paid last year.  There's no context, it's just a single data point.

There's two points that keep coming up in this topic that people try to make more important than the other.

 Point #1 - The guy with higher points has better odds than the guy with lower points in any given draw.  Obvious. 2 is always more than 1.

Point #2 - The "accumulation" of points is not increasing year-over-year odds for the higher point holders.  Counter-intuitive, and definitely off-message for the WDFW fee generating machine.

Using point #1 to argue against point #2 doesn't make sense.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: hunterednate on May 15, 2019, 02:37:43 PM
I'd be curious to see the overall age demographics of current point builders/holders.

For big game hunters in general, there's a huge population of boomers and older, decreasing sharply with the millennial generation. I talked with an older guy yesterday who is holding 19 mountain goat points but decided he's no longer applying - feels like he couldn't handle the mountain this year.

What will the application game look like 30 years from now when the youngest babyboomers are in their 90's?

I'd be surprised if there's not a dramatic decrease in applicants as older hunters age out of applying for hunts. This will cause massive management budget shortfalls, so I'm sure tag prices will skyrocket...but I also wouldn't be surprised if some tags are easier to draw in the year 2049 (assuming hunting is still legal).
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: vandeman17 on May 15, 2019, 02:41:28 PM
All I know is that unless the format changes, if/when I draw something, it will be the last application for me in that category. I am sitting on 14 quality deer points and would be absolutely shocked if I drew this year, or in the next 5-10.
Sure, but that's like me complaining about my taxes going way up this year, and somebody else simply saying "I paid $5000 in taxes" without saying what they paid last year.  There's no context, it's just a single data point.

There's two points that keep coming up in this topic that people try to make more important than the other.

 Point #1 - The guy with higher points has better odds than the guy with lower points in any given draw.  Obvious. 2 is always more than 1.

Point #2 - The "accumulation" of points is not increasing year-over-year odds for the higher point holders.  Counter-intuitive, and definitely off-message for the WDFW fee generating machine.

Using point #1 to argue against point #2 doesn't make sense.

Not sure I follow but basically what I am saying is that, while I know technically everyone has a chance, I don't see myself starting over and going back in with one point. It has nothing to do with the cost of the applications but more so what I get in return. I have hunted other states and know that many of their OTC hunts are as good, if not better, than our quality tags. For that reason, I have no problem paying the extra money for license and then applying for a special permit there. At least I have good OTC hunts to fall back on instead of here where, if you apply for eastside archery elk and strike out, you are stuck going after cows/spike in a crowded season.  :twocents:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: slowhand on May 15, 2019, 02:52:28 PM
I'd be curious to see the overall age demographics of current point builders/holders.

For big game hunters in general, there's a huge population of boomers and older, decreasing sharply with the millennial generation. I talked with an older guy yesterday who is holding 19 mountain goat points but decided he's no longer applying - feels like he couldn't handle the mountain this year.

What will the application game look like 30 years from now when the youngest babyboomers are in their 90's?

I'd be surprised if there's not a dramatic decrease in applicants as older hunters age out of applying for hunts. This will cause massive management budget shortfalls, so I'm sure tag prices will skyrocket...but I also wouldn't be surprised if some tags are easier to draw in the year 2049 (assuming hunting is still legal).
This is exactly what I'm banking on. The old guys with tons of points die every year and others throw in the towel. I'm 42 now and plan to put in for every option I can until I draw or die of old age. My hope is to get two quality tags for elk and Deer before My days of hunting are done.
I do hope they go to a preference point system at some point. People with loads of points should get their tags first. Or at least 75% of the tags should go to the top points holders. My opinion is Wyoming has the best system.
This will be My first year putting in for Wyoming points as well as Washington.
Looking into others also. They are all so different. Takes quite a bit of time to just learn one state much less all of the good ones.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Skillet on May 15, 2019, 03:01:55 PM
Not sure I follow but basically what I am saying is that, while I know technically everyone has a chance, I don't see myself starting over and going back in with one point. It has nothing to do with the cost of the applications but more so what I get in return. I have hunted other states and know that many of their OTC hunts are as good, if not better, than our quality tags. For that reason, I have no problem paying the extra money for license and then applying for a special permit there. At least I have good OTC hunts to fall back on instead of here where, if you apply for eastside archery elk and strike out, you are stuck going after cows/spike in a crowded season.  :twocents:
My bad, meant to quote Bob.  I'll fix it
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: jeffitz on May 15, 2019, 04:28:28 PM
Just applied for Quality Elk(19pts),Bull Elk(19), Any Moose(15), and Goat(6) lastnight and have zero faith i will draw a damn thing but i cant stop trying
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Stein on May 15, 2019, 07:20:47 PM
It's not the old guys you need to worry about, it's everyone.  My kid already has 3 elk points and he's in elementary school.  The total number of applicants goes up every year.  It would really take a big change to drive the applications down and since that would mean a big loss of revenue, I don't see it.

It's like Powerball, play if you want but don't expect to ever have anything other than long odds. 
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: slowhand on May 15, 2019, 10:55:55 PM
Just applied for Quality Elk(19pts),Bull Elk(19), Any Moose(15), and Goat(6) lastnight and have zero faith i will draw a damn thing but i cant stop trying
Thatís some serious ammo. I have a good feeling this is your year.
I hope you get the quality tag your after. You deserve it with that many points.
Can I ask your age? Whatís your #1 hope tag wise?
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Skyvalhunter on May 16, 2019, 05:17:45 AM
Just applied for Quality Elk(19pts),Bull Elk(19), Any Moose(15), and Goat(6) lastnight and have zero faith i will draw a damn thing but i cant stop trying

Sure you can
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: jeffitz on May 16, 2019, 08:33:38 AM
Age 43 - First choice Quality is the Rut rifle Goose Prairie permit- 2nd choice Little Naches Rut rifle- this is one reason i have high points cuz i always apply for the most difficult draws- There might be better permits to draw than these but i know the area a little bit so...
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: wooltie on May 16, 2019, 09:47:38 AM
In washington points arent the issue the issue is categories and the ability to have multiple applications across every permitted species. Though I would strongly support having no points at all.

With a finite amount of available permits there should be a more discerning amount of options available.

We enjoy OTC Cougar, Bear, Deer and Elk so IMO there is no reason to have such a broad application system.

There are roughly 24,000 deer, elk, moose, sheep and goat permits issued every year and there is roughly 50,000 (probably less) people applying for them. Simply changing the application to 1 species and 1 or 2 options would drastically increase odd of people drawing permits they really want because they would have to be more discerning about their applications.

No one wants to make a choice, instead they want their cake and eat it too... and WDFW wants revenue so our current system is a win win.  :rolleyes:

This was my thinking as well.

What if people could apply points only to as many permits/draws each year, but each person could only use those points on one or two permits/draws per year?  Like said, each person would have to choose which hunts they want to actually apply for on a given year, then pay $ to accumulate points in other hunts.  Might increase the chances of actually drawing because fewer people could apply for a given hunt each year.  You could be the guy applying with 15 points while the other applicants have 5-10 points or less, and the quantity of applicants is capped to ensure that the higher point applicants have a greater %.  Could backfire if all applicants have more equal points.

Could be that you just happen to apply during a given year where the other applicants have significant fewer points than you do, effectively increasing your chances of drawing.  It could also be the case where you draw with historically fewer points simply because the other applicants had fewer points than you did for that year's draw.

Or, end result is you might not get drawn while paying $ to accumulate points.

Isn't that the case now though LOL?
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: slowhand on May 16, 2019, 10:42:56 AM
Age 43 - First choice Quality is the Rut rifle Goose Prairie permit- 2nd choice Little Naches Rut rifle- this is one reason i have high points cuz i always apply for the most difficult draws- There might be better permits to draw than these but i know the area a little bit so...
Those are both great tags and areas. I have hunted both many times and seen tons of elk.
Once had a 6x6 at 20yard while bow hunting, no bull tag so I just watched him.
I wish You luck, those are very hard tags to get.
I pulled a peaches bull rifle tag years ago. Hunted hard for over a week. I had three good chances just didn't come together. I took a couple years off in complete disgust after.
I truly can't describe the feelings I had driving home after working that hard and coming up empty handed.
Now I look back at it as by far my all time favorite hunting experience.
I do feel guilty for spending one entire day just watching and following a large group of mountain goats. I was so amazed with them I totally forgot I had a fancy bull tag and was hunting. I felt like I was in a national geographic episode watching the little ones play and but heads. I think I counted 12 goats total.
If your at such a high points number have you never drawn a bull or quality tag?
or any special permit?
 
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: X-Force on May 16, 2019, 10:55:53 AM
Age 43 - First choice Quality is the Rut rifle Goose Prairie permit- 2nd choice Little Naches Rut rifle- this is one reason i have high points cuz i always apply for the most difficult draws- There might be better permits to draw than these but i know the area a little bit so...

How many points?
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: jeffitz on May 16, 2019, 11:01:53 AM
Ive drawn 3 Cow permits over the years and two Buck permits but never a Bull/Quality Bull - got to help a buddy a couple years ago get his Goose P 6X6- awesome times.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: D-Rock425 on May 16, 2019, 12:21:48 PM
When the application system changed in 2010 it made drawing "quality" tags tougher I believe.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Woodchuck on May 16, 2019, 12:46:58 PM
When the application system changed in 2010 it made drawing "quality" tags tougher I believe.
I think it made all permits harder to draw, it allowed for everyone to get into all pools without risk of losing points in "premium" pools.  :twocents:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: BULLBLASTER on May 16, 2019, 01:04:52 PM
 
When the application system changed in 2010 it made drawing "quality" tags tougher I believe.
I think it made all permits harder to draw, it allowed for everyone to get into all pools without risk of losing points in "premium" pools.  :twocents:
:yeah:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Stein on May 16, 2019, 01:14:39 PM
Yeah, it made all tags harder to draw but did increase permit revenue by several fold.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Woodchuck on May 16, 2019, 02:01:03 PM
Yeah, it made all tags harder to draw but did increase permit revenue by several fold.
Which was the real goal IMHO.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: D-Rock425 on May 16, 2019, 02:41:09 PM
When the application system changed in 2010 it made drawing "quality" tags tougher I believe.
I think it made all permits harder to draw, it allowed for everyone to get into all pools without risk of losing points in "premium" pools.  :twocents:
I drew deer and elk in 09 and started new system with zero points.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: slowhand on May 16, 2019, 03:11:40 PM
When the application system changed in 2010 it made drawing "quality" tags tougher I believe.
I think it made all permits harder to draw, it allowed for everyone to get into all pools without risk of losing points in "premium" pools.  :twocents:
I drew deer and elk in 09 and started new system with zero points.
Ouch! talk about worst case. I only had 3 at that time.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: 7mmfan on May 16, 2019, 04:39:59 PM
Since I started applying religiously Iíve drawn 1 cow tag, 2 bull tags, a quality bull tag and a 2nd deer tag. My dad has drawn 3 cow tags, 1 bull tag, and a buck tag, and a friend of mine has drawn 1 bull tag, 2 cow tags, and 2 quality buck tags. We all started about the same time, so similar point totals. The long and short is just apply for what interests you and hope you get it. Points have little bearing on whether youíre drawn or not. Case in point, my quality bull tag was drawn on 5 points, and a friend applied for the same tag with 23. He didnít get it. My buddy thatís drawn 2 quality buck tags did so with less than 5 points each time. Just apply and hope.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Woodchuck on May 16, 2019, 05:09:03 PM
When the application system changed in 2010 it made drawing "quality" tags tougher I believe.
I think it made all permits harder to draw, it allowed for everyone to get into all pools without risk of losing points in "premium" pools.  :twocents:
I drew deer and elk in 09 and started new system with zero points.
Ouch! talk about worst case. I only had 3 at that time.
I drew elk in 09.  :bash:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: SteelheadTed on May 16, 2019, 05:48:51 PM
Since I started applying religiously Iíve drawn 1 cow tag, 2 bull tags, a quality bull tag and a 2nd deer tag. My dad has drawn 3 cow tags, 1 bull tag, and a buck tag, and a friend of mine has drawn 1 bull tag, 2 cow tags, and 2 quality buck tags. We all started about the same time, so similar point totals. The long and short is just apply for what interests you and hope you get it. Points have little bearing on whether youíre drawn or not. Case in point, my quality bull tag was drawn on 5 points, and a friend applied for the same tag with 23. He didnít get it. My buddy thatís drawn 2 quality buck tags did so with less than 5 points each time. Just apply and hope.

Let me try with an analogy.  If you had to roll a six with a dice would you rather have 23 chances to do it or 5?  Of course you'd rather have 23 chances and that is why points do mater, it gives you more chances to draw a tag.

When dealing with probabilities you can't take two cases as you have above to prove that points don't matter.  That isn't at all how the draw works or how probability works in general. 

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Shawn Ryan on May 17, 2019, 03:13:35 PM

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.
:yeah:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: vandeman17 on May 17, 2019, 03:25:27 PM

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.
:yeah:

I think the majority understand how the odds go but at least for me, I know that the difference between 5 points and 20 points for the "quality" tags is negligible in the grand scheme of things. When both have below 1% odds, the difference in those point totals don't really mean much to me.   
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Skillet on May 17, 2019, 04:09:30 PM

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.
:yeah:

I think the majority understand how the odds go but at least for me, I know that the difference between 5 points and 20 points for the "quality" tags is negligible in the grand scheme of things. When both have below 1% odds, the difference in those point totals don't really mean much to me.   

 :yeah:

Nobody is saying if you have more points than another applicant that your odds to draw vs that applicant are lower.  More points = better odds than fewer points in any draw. 

The main issue is the actual odds of pulling a permit.  As Vandeman says, having 20 years in and still looking at a less then 1% chance to draw isn't very uplifting.

The general lack of awareness on here is that the odds are going down every year for higher point total holders.  If you hold 10+ points and didn't draw in 2018, all things being equal, your odds to pull that quality bull permit in 2019 are actually lower.  Even with another point squared.  It's counterintuitive, but it's true.  And when permits are reduced, almost everybody's odds go down significantly from the previous year.

Somebody earlier nailed it when they said don't ghost point, this year is the best your odds are going to be.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: dscubame on May 17, 2019, 04:39:45 PM
Yep.  The high point holder likely to draw hayday is past.  My going forward plan is continue to put in until drawn and if drawn will not put in any more.  If I never draw o.k. sucks but still will enjoy the hope for that rare chance. 

Draw and Done is my motto in WA.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: The scout on May 17, 2019, 04:45:34 PM
 :yeah: if the opportunity was the same when I started applying, I would have never started.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: 7mmfan on May 17, 2019, 07:57:19 PM

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.
:yeah:

Thanks Ted I understand exactly how it works. I know 23 chances is better than 5, pretty easy math there. I also understand that the number of points had nothing to do with drawings tags in this state. It's just more chances in the barrel.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Mr Mykiss on May 17, 2019, 10:04:08 PM
Iím pretty sure that I can hit an elk with 28 shots...but Iím also pretty sure that 10 guys with 10 shots each will hit it before me.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: dscubame on May 18, 2019, 06:32:27 AM

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.
:yeah:

Thanks Ted I understand exactly how it works. I know 23 chances is better than 5, pretty easy math there. I also understand that the number of points had nothing to do with drawings tags in this state. It's just more chances in the barrel.

Not true.  Using your 23 vs 5 chances, for example it use to be 5 chances out of 25 giving you 20 percent chance to draw but now it is 23 out of a 1,000 giving you a 2 percent chance to draw.  That is what is being referred to that you truely do not understand.  Cheers.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: opdinkslayer on May 18, 2019, 06:49:49 AM
Reading all this makes me want to cry as I hit the checkout button & donate another $200 to the state! :bash:  But hey somebody has to win right & im in too deep to quit now! :chuckle: 8)
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Mr Mykiss on May 18, 2019, 07:36:31 AM
Not true.  Using your 23 vs 5 chances, for example it use to be 5 chances out of 25 giving you 20 percent chance to draw but now it is 23 out of a 1,000 giving you a 2 percent chance to draw.  That is what is being referred to that you truely do not understand.  Cheers.
What in the world?? I donít follow one bit...are you trying to talk points? Tag numbers? Applicants?
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Mr Mykiss on May 18, 2019, 07:39:25 AM
Iím pretty sure that I can hit an elk with 28 shots...but Iím also pretty sure that 10 guys with 10 shots each will hit it before me.
Since youíre gonna ask...
10 guys with 10 points is 1000 names in the hat, one guy with 28 points is 784 names in the hat.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Tbar on May 18, 2019, 07:53:52 AM
Can we get Cryder to chime in? I'm getting confused.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: trophyhunt on May 18, 2019, 09:13:06 AM
Can we get Cryder to chime in? I'm getting confused.
now thatís funny !!   :chuckle:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Bob33 on May 18, 2019, 09:28:34 AM
Can we get Cryder to chime in? I'm getting confused.
  :chuckle:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: beauhunter on May 18, 2019, 10:43:41 AM
The sad truth is the most hunters now will not draw these coveted tags, but all you can do is hope for the best and expect the worst. I wish everyone the best in the draw and am thankful for just being able to hunt still
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: SteelheadTed on May 21, 2019, 12:10:10 PM
Iím pretty sure that I can hit an elk with 28 shots...but Iím also pretty sure that 10 guys with 10 shots each will hit it before me.

OK, but YOU have better odds than everyone of those guys.   
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: SteelheadTed on May 21, 2019, 12:13:50 PM

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.
:yeah:

I think the majority understand how the odds go but at least for me, I know that the difference between 5 points and 20 points for the "quality" tags is negligible in the grand scheme of things. When both have below 1% odds, the difference in those point totals don't really mean much to me.

THAT is the important distinction, that yes, you have better odds with more points but if your odds are 1% and someone else's is 0.7% you both have poor odds.  Agreed. 
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Mr Mykiss on May 21, 2019, 09:38:58 PM
Iím pretty sure that I can hit an elk with 28 shots...but Iím also pretty sure that 10 guys with 10 shots each will hit it before me.

OK, but YOU have better odds than everyone of those guys.
Ah ha!!
Indeed I do.
See ď...will hit it before I doĒ
Most of the points in the hat are from guys with 10-15 Points, not max.
Hence the fact that a lot of people draw in that point range...even with much worse individual odds.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: SuperX on May 22, 2019, 05:43:44 AM
Iím pretty sure that I can hit an elk with 28 shots...but Iím also pretty sure that 10 guys with 10 shots each will hit it before me.

OK, but YOU have better odds than everyone of those guys.
Ah ha!!
Indeed I do.
See ď...will hit it before I doĒ
Most of the points in the hat are from guys with 10-15 Points, not max.
Hence the fact that a lot of people draw in that point range...even with much worse individual odds.
of course one of them would draw first, they have the better odds as a group - 100 shots to 28.  If you pick one of the 10, you have the odds on your side 28 to 10
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: ljsommer on May 22, 2019, 06:18:51 AM
Here's a question I've never asked before but have wondered: How good are our quality tags? For example, how good is our quality bull elk tag compared to say, Idaho OTC elk?
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Magnum_Willys on May 22, 2019, 06:29:59 AM
Our Quality tags while down are still much better than Idaho Otc in general.  Now if you have an Idaho honey hole you may have a better chance than an unscouted  road hunt in a quality WA area but all else being equal look at success odds of WA Quality vs Idaho general.    Much better in WA quality WA - if you are the lucky one in a hundred.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Karl Blanchard on May 22, 2019, 07:08:26 AM
We have incredible bull tags in this state! Most units have world class top end potential and there are lots of critters.

Deer though? There's only one tag in this state I would return my zero point CO tag for :twocents:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: trophyhunt on May 22, 2019, 07:11:03 AM
We have incredible bull tags in this state! Most units have world class top end potential and there are lots of critters.

Deer though? There's only one tag in this state I would return my zero point CO tag for :twocents:
AAAAAAAAAAnd which one is that????????????     :chuckle:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: ctwiggs1 on May 22, 2019, 07:45:55 AM
We have incredible bull tags in this state! Most units have world class top end potential and there are lots of critters.

Deer though? There's only one tag in this state I would return my zero point CO tag for :twocents:
AAAAAAAAAAnd which one is that????????????     :chuckle:

Why do I have a feeling you aren't going to say Entiat or Desert.... :dunno:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Karl Blanchard on May 22, 2019, 07:57:49 AM
We have incredible bull tags in this state! Most units have world class top end potential and there are lots of critters.

Deer though? There's only one tag in this state I would return my zero point CO tag for :twocents:
AAAAAAAAAAnd which one is that????????????     :chuckle:

Why do I have a feeling you aren't going to say Entiat or Desert.... :dunno:
I'm not gonna say another word  :hello: :chuckle:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: JimmyHoffa on May 22, 2019, 08:05:41 AM
Here's a question I've never asked before but have wondered: How good are our quality tags? For example, how good is our quality bull elk tag compared to say, Idaho OTC elk?
There's one unit I've hunted for a long time chasing bear after early archery season.  It is the same time that a couple quality bull permits are active for that area.  It's crazy to think it is the same unit.  Almost no people and elk are running around and rutting like normal, weather is finally cooling.  If it rains, mushroomers might be around looking for chants, but that's it.  So, the quality permits are actually a pretty good deal, imo.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Stein on May 22, 2019, 08:34:12 AM
I haven't drawn a quality, but I will say the Peaches bull tag I drew was overall a better tag then the general MT hunts I have been on.  Of course that really depends on what tag you draw in WA and how good of a spot you hunt on the general tag.

The best part of the tags in WA isn't the quality of the elk, it is that there are severely restricted hunters (quality of the experience).  You can look at the B&C books and see that WA doesn't hold a candle to most of the big elk states, but with a good WA tag you will be facing very little hunting pressure in places with good hunting.

I'm sure there are exceptions to that, but if you are the 1/1,000 that draws one, you will have a good tag.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: D-Rock425 on May 22, 2019, 09:11:43 AM
We have incredible bull tags in this state! Most units have world class top end potential and there are lots of critters.

Deer though? There's only one tag in this state I would return my zero point CO tag for :twocents:
AAAAAAAAAAnd which one is that????????????     :chuckle:

Why do I have a feeling you aren't going to say Entiat or Desert.... :dunno:
I'm not gonna say another word  :hello: :chuckle:
:chuckle:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: vandeman17 on May 22, 2019, 09:17:09 AM
I haven't drawn a quality, but I will say the Peaches bull tag I drew was overall a better tag then the general MT hunts I have been on.  Of course that really depends on what tag you draw in WA and how good of a spot you hunt on the general tag.

The best part of the tags in WA isn't the quality of the elk, it is that there are severely restricted hunters (quality of the experience).  You can look at the B&C books and see that WA doesn't hold a candle to most of the big elk states, but with a good WA tag you will be facing very little hunting pressure in places with good hunting.

I'm sure there are exceptions to that, but if you are the 1/1,000 that draws one, you will have a good tag.

Also an aspect to note is that states like montana, their OTC seasons are MUCH longer so instead of the quality permit being like 6 days, you can have 2 months to hunt. That is a huge factor as far as "quality" for me. Not to mention not having to use a specific weapon. This gives me tons more schedule flexibility as well as being able to play the weather or make multiple trips.  :twocents:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Stein on May 22, 2019, 10:52:26 AM
Very true.  In MT, the season is 11 weeks and in many if not most OTC units you can take a bull or cow so there is more opportunity if you are most interested in meat.

There is also the comparison that you can hunt nearly every year in MT & CO and you will most likely be waiting a couple of decades for that WA tag, if the tag still exists when you win the lottery.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Mr Mykiss on May 22, 2019, 02:16:55 PM
 :brew:
Cheers gentleman!!
We're about to abandon this thread for the annual DNRY thread...holla!!
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Woodchuck on May 22, 2019, 02:21:00 PM
Already started.  :bash:
https://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,239415.30.html
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Bob33 on May 22, 2019, 02:39:23 PM
There is a point. Here it is:
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: blackveltbowhunter on May 22, 2019, 02:48:08 PM
Here's a question I've never asked before but have wondered: How good are our quality tags? For example, how good is our quality bull elk tag compared to say, Idaho OTC elk?

It is a bit dependent, but I would hunt 95 percent of the quality tags for Elk here over OTC in pretty much any western state. Deer is more species dependent, But for elk I basically plan my fall with Washington on the back burner unless I draw a permit. Almost all the Bull or Quality permits are worth spending the time IMO, and for sure it beats OTC in Idaho.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: JimmyHoffa on May 22, 2019, 09:15:54 PM
nearing the deadline for the apps!
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Stein on May 22, 2019, 09:51:19 PM
The big difference is ID is every year and WA quality is every.......  Iíll let you know when I draw.

Iíve shot 7 animals otc in the other state while waiting for my resident draw.  I would have a 0.7% chance here this year for all the years of my loyalty, dollars and patience.

Itís not a bad hunt, just a bad deal. Same as powerball, a mountain of losers and one lucky guy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: dvolmer on May 23, 2019, 05:50:05 AM
The big difference is ID is every year and WA quality is every.......  Iíll let you know when I draw.

Iíve shot 7 animals otc in the other state while waiting for my resident draw.  I would have a 0.7% chance here this year for all the years of my loyalty, dollars and patience.

Itís not a bad hunt, just a bad deal. Same as powerball, a mountain of losers and one lucky guy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Exactly!!!
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: huntnnw on May 23, 2019, 06:09:51 AM
Here's a question I've never asked before but have wondered: How good are our quality tags? For example, how good is our quality bull elk tag compared to say, Idaho OTC elk?

It is a bit dependent, but I would hunt 95 percent of the quality tags for Elk here over OTC in pretty much any western state. Deer is more species dependent, But for elk I basically plan my fall with Washington on the back burner unless I draw a permit. Almost all the Bull or Quality permits are worth spending the time IMO, and for sure it beats OTC in Idaho.

quality elk tags are not a comparison to hunting ID OTC. Very few hunters, lots of bulls and not just lots of bulls, but some very big bulls in the units. Ive drawn 2 in WA and by far better than any elk hunt I have been on.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: ljsommer on May 23, 2019, 06:26:00 AM
Wow that's really encouraging! Thanks for chiming in, everyone, regarding the quality of our "Quality" elk hunts. I am not a particularly lucky dude when it comes to lottery stuff but I'll keep trying! In the mean time, I'll keep hunting and enjoying OTC. Looking forward to a great 2019.
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: NOCK NOCK on May 23, 2019, 07:21:29 AM
There are exceptions, Quality archery in Colockum happens while general is open. Sucks archers donít get true quality experience
Title: Re: "points" is there really a point
Post by: Stein on May 23, 2019, 07:42:35 AM
Yeah, you really need to research the other tags and general seasons for the unit you are applying.  If the spike rifle season opens in the middle of the permit hunt it will dramatically lower the quality of said hunt starting two days before the general opener.

The other thing is that the animals can be fairly pressured before you even show up if you are putting in for a rifle tag.  For the bull tag I drew, there was an archery season, smoke pole, disabled and master hunt before my hunt and by the time I got there they were already in the nocturnal hunting season routine.