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Author Topic: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds  (Read 2667 times)

Offline Mr Mykiss

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Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« on: April 30, 2018, 10:29:13 AM »
I chose this hunt because I always considered it one of the "easy" hunts to draw in WA
For those of you curious...
-The regs state that the "average" points for someone who draw was 10 for 2017
-Some people say "I have 12 points, it only takes 10 to draw, I'm gonna draw"
-Nope
-The average points of the people who drew last year was 10
-That's because the VAST MAJORITY of the names in the hat come from people who have 10 or fewer names in the hat, therefore...
-It's six times more likely that someone from the 8 point pool (289 people, 18496 names in the hat) will draw than the 18 point pool (9 people, 2916 names in the hat)
-Bueno?
-Since there used to be 110 tags and now there's 61 you could basically assume these states used to be doubled

Here's draw odds for individuals with certain point totals...you get the idea.
Have a nice day :hello: :hello:

Points  Odds
20      12.1%
15        7.0%
10        3.2%
5          0.8%

PS: If you do the math and extrapolate (not recommended) you will find that if the number of hunts/hunters/tags stay relatively the same that a 20 year old who starts "building points" in the famous Washington BULL ELK category this year would have odds of drawing progressively get better going from 0.03% to probably around 8-10% (if that>>>point creep) in 40 years...giving you...wait for it...about a 50/50 chance of drawing a Peaches tag in your next 40 years of hunting. Just sayin.
Have you called your district biologist to voice your concerns?
Have you attended a public meeting on season setting?
You are getting exactly what you deserve from WDFW

Offline X-Force

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2018, 10:39:49 AM »
Thanks for the info.

Im glad i have all these points it really improves my odds.  :chuckle:
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Offline Karl Blanchard

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2018, 10:49:29 AM »
Tagging along  :chuckle: :chuckle: :chuckle: :'(
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Offline Duckhunter14

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2018, 10:53:52 AM »
Very uplifting. Thanks for posting on a Monday. Really gives a guy hope.  :bash:
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Offline Bob33

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2018, 10:54:28 AM »
“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.

If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.
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Online vandeman17

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2018, 11:08:39 AM »
“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.

If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.

 :yeah: That whole "average points" is very misleading. The way I look at the whole draw/point system is to apply for the hunt you WANT and forget about the one you think you SHOULD BE ABLE to draw. Majority have such low odds that the difference is minuscule  :twocents:
" I have hunted almost every day of my life, the rest have been wasted"

Offline Mr Mykiss

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2018, 11:39:11 AM »
I was referring to peaches rifle, hence the tag allocation going from 110 to 61, as well as the reference to the BULL category.
Copy that. To do a totally precise estimation you’d have to add one, estimate the number of people jumping in with zero (aka one) point, account for those that did draw and take them out and I guess I coulda given the percentage down to the thousandth but when we get into all that stuff it’s really splitting hairs and would likely only move numbers a tenth of a percent or thereabouts.

PS: Yeah happy Monday...but it’s da truth :/
Have you called your district biologist to voice your concerns?
Have you attended a public meeting on season setting?
You are getting exactly what you deserve from WDFW

Offline trophyhunt

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2018, 11:48:10 AM »
My advice to young hunters, don’t live by the draw/points system!  Buy the tag you want and go hunt, buy your points if you want, ghost point until you draw the multi season elk tag.  Then put in for the special hunt you want, I’m talking about elk hunting here. Don’t wait year after year for that one special permit, you’ll just get old!!  Go hunt!!
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline Magnum_Willys

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #8 on: April 30, 2018, 12:00:18 PM »
“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.

If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.
   I believe odds are even less - run the names in hat with two applicants with 2 pts ea and two with 20 points ea and you see its more names then the average squared time # of applicants.  Like you say - Not that it matters !  :tup:

Offline coachcw

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2018, 12:04:15 PM »
so your saying I have a chance ?
My wife told me that I hunt way more than I did when we first got married. I said yeah I know isn't it great !

Offline Bob33

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2018, 12:08:31 PM »
“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.

If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.
   I believe odds are even less - run the names in hat with two applicants with 2 pts ea and two with 20 points ea and you see its more names then the average squared time # of applicants.  Like you say - Not that it matters !  :tup:
If there are two applications with two points each, and two with 20 points each I would compute there are 808 names in the hat and average points per application would be 14.2. 14.2 squared times 4 is 808.
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Offline knighttime25

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2018, 12:08:55 PM »
 :IBCOOL: :IBCOOL: :IBCOOL:

Offline Magnum_Willys

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #12 on: April 30, 2018, 12:47:16 PM »
Thx Bob how did you get the 14.4 average? 

Offline LongBomb

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2018, 02:30:09 PM »
My advice to young hunters, don’t live by the draw/points system!  Buy the tag you want and go hunt, buy your points if you want, ghost point until you draw the multi season elk tag.  Then put in for the special hunt you want, I’m talking about elk hunting here. Don’t wait year after year for that one special permit, you’ll just get old!!  Go hunt!!
:yeah:

Online vandeman17

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2018, 02:34:12 PM »
My advice to young hunters, don’t live by the draw/points system!  Buy the tag you want and go hunt, buy your points if you want, ghost point until you draw the multi season elk tag.  Then put in for the special hunt you want, I’m talking about elk hunting here. Don’t wait year after year for that one special permit, you’ll just get old!!  Go hunt!!

Spot on. This is why I pinch pennies during the year and travel out of state to hunt. Never know when we are off to meet our maker and I want to make the most of the time we have.
" I have hunted almost every day of my life, the rest have been wasted"

 

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