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“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.

Quote from: Bob33 on April 30, 2018, 10:54:28 AM“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year. I believe odds are even less - run the names in hat with two applicants with 2 pts ea and two with 20 points ea and you see its more names then the average squared time # of applicants. Like you say - Not that it matters !

My advice to young hunters, don’t live by the draw/points system! Buy the tag you want and go hunt, buy your points if you want, ghost point until you draw the multi season elk tag. Then put in for the special hunt you want, I’m talking about elk hunting here. Don’t wait year after year for that one special permit, you’ll just get old!! Go hunt!!