collapse
Elk Hunting University Headin West

Author Topic: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds  (Read 5821 times)

Offline Mr Mykiss

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Sourdough
  • *
  • Join Date: Apr 2009
  • Posts: 1441
Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« on: April 30, 2018, 10:29:13 AM »
I chose this hunt because I always considered it one of the "easy" hunts to draw in WA
For those of you curious...
-The regs state that the "average" points for someone who draw was 10 for 2017
-Some people say "I have 12 points, it only takes 10 to draw, I'm gonna draw"
-Nope
-The average points of the people who drew last year was 10
-That's because the VAST MAJORITY of the names in the hat come from people who have 10 or fewer names in the hat, therefore...
-It's six times more likely that someone from the 8 point pool (289 people, 18496 names in the hat) will draw than the 18 point pool (9 people, 2916 names in the hat)
-Bueno?
-Since there used to be 110 tags and now there's 61 you could basically assume these states used to be doubled

Here's draw odds for individuals with certain point totals...you get the idea.
Have a nice day :hello: :hello:

Points  Odds
20      12.1%
15        7.0%
10        3.2%
5          0.8%

PS: If you do the math and extrapolate (not recommended) you will find that if the number of hunts/hunters/tags stay relatively the same that a 20 year old who starts "building points" in the famous Washington BULL ELK category this year would have odds of drawing progressively get better going from 0.03% to probably around 8-10% (if that>>>point creep) in 40 years...giving you...wait for it...about a 50/50 chance of drawing a Peaches tag in your next 40 years of hunting. Just sayin.

Offline X-Force

  • Solo Hunter
  • Political Topics
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Frontiersman
  • *
  • Join Date: Sep 2007
  • Posts: 3948
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2018, 10:39:49 AM »
Thanks for the info.

Im glad i have all these points it really improves my odds.  :chuckle:
Groupie:                         Podcast:
RMEF                              Gritty
NRA                                Western bowhunter
SCI                                 The Hunt Backcountry
BHA                                MeatEater
SAB                                Hunt Talk Radio

Offline Karl Blanchard

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Old Salt
  • *
  • Join Date: Aug 2008
  • Posts: 5027
  • Location: Selah, WA
  • Jonathan_S hunting apparel prostaff
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2018, 10:49:29 AM »
Tagging along  :chuckle: :chuckle: :chuckle: :'(
It is foolish and wrong to mourn these men.  Rather, we should thank god that such men lived.  -General George S. Patton

Aaron's Profile:  http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php?action=profile;u=2875
Aaron's Posts:  http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=2875
Aaron's Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/aaron.blanchard.94

Offline Duckhunter14

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Longhunter
  • *****
  • Join Date: Jul 2013
  • Posts: 548
  • Location: Arlington
  • Groups: RMEF, WSF Life Member, RMGA
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2018, 10:53:52 AM »
Very uplifting. Thanks for posting on a Monday. Really gives a guy hope.  :bash:
"I don't hunt to live, I live to hunt."

"Elk don't know how many feet a horse has!"

My two favorite words? Take em!

Offline Bob33

  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2009
  • Posts: 17406
  • Groups: SCI, RMEF, NRA
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2018, 10:54:28 AM »
“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.

If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Online vandeman17

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Old Salt
  • *
  • Join Date: Jul 2007
  • Posts: 8562
  • Location: East Wenatchee
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2018, 11:08:39 AM »
“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.

If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.

 :yeah: That whole "average points" is very misleading. The way I look at the whole draw/point system is to apply for the hunt you WANT and forget about the one you think you SHOULD BE ABLE to draw. Majority have such low odds that the difference is minuscule  :twocents:
" I have hunted almost every day of my life, the rest have been wasted"

Offline Mr Mykiss

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Sourdough
  • *
  • Join Date: Apr 2009
  • Posts: 1441
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2018, 11:39:11 AM »
I was referring to peaches rifle, hence the tag allocation going from 110 to 61, as well as the reference to the BULL category.
Copy that. To do a totally precise estimation you’d have to add one, estimate the number of people jumping in with zero (aka one) point, account for those that did draw and take them out and I guess I coulda given the percentage down to the thousandth but when we get into all that stuff it’s really splitting hairs and would likely only move numbers a tenth of a percent or thereabouts.

PS: Yeah happy Monday...but it’s da truth :/

Offline trophyhunt

  • Site Sponsor
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2008
  • Posts: 10463
  • Location: Wetside
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2018, 11:48:10 AM »
My advice to young hunters, don’t live by the draw/points system!  Buy the tag you want and go hunt, buy your points if you want, ghost point until you draw the multi season elk tag.  Then put in for the special hunt you want, I’m talking about elk hunting here. Don’t wait year after year for that one special permit, you’ll just get old!!  Go hunt!!
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline Magnum_Willys

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Frontiersman
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2009
  • Posts: 2973
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #8 on: April 30, 2018, 12:00:18 PM »
“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.

If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.
   I believe odds are even less - run the names in hat with two applicants with 2 pts ea and two with 20 points ea and you see its more names then the average squared time # of applicants.  Like you say - Not that it matters !  :tup:

Offline coachcw

  • Site Sponsor
  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Old Salt
  • *****
  • Join Date: Jun 2009
  • Posts: 8535
  • Groups: Team getsum !
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2018, 12:04:15 PM »
so your saying I have a chance ?
My wife told me that I hunt way more than I did when we first got married. I said yeah I know isn't it great !

Offline Bob33

  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2009
  • Posts: 17406
  • Groups: SCI, RMEF, NRA
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2018, 12:08:31 PM »
“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.

If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.
   I believe odds are even less - run the names in hat with two applicants with 2 pts ea and two with 20 points ea and you see its more names then the average squared time # of applicants.  Like you say - Not that it matters !  :tup:
If there are two applications with two points each, and two with 20 points each I would compute there are 808 names in the hat and average points per application would be 14.2. 14.2 squared times 4 is 808.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline knighttime25

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Pilgrim
  • *
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 32
  • Location: Mount Vernon
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2018, 12:08:55 PM »
 :IBCOOL: :IBCOOL: :IBCOOL:

Offline Magnum_Willys

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Frontiersman
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2009
  • Posts: 2973
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #12 on: April 30, 2018, 12:47:16 PM »
Thx Bob how did you get the 14.4 average? 

Offline LongBomb

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hunter
  • ***
  • Join Date: Apr 2018
  • Posts: 117
  • Location: Clark County
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2018, 02:30:09 PM »
My advice to young hunters, don’t live by the draw/points system!  Buy the tag you want and go hunt, buy your points if you want, ghost point until you draw the multi season elk tag.  Then put in for the special hunt you want, I’m talking about elk hunting here. Don’t wait year after year for that one special permit, you’ll just get old!!  Go hunt!!
:yeah:

Online vandeman17

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Old Salt
  • *
  • Join Date: Jul 2007
  • Posts: 8562
  • Location: East Wenatchee
Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2018, 02:34:12 PM »
My advice to young hunters, don’t live by the draw/points system!  Buy the tag you want and go hunt, buy your points if you want, ghost point until you draw the multi season elk tag.  Then put in for the special hunt you want, I’m talking about elk hunting here. Don’t wait year after year for that one special permit, you’ll just get old!!  Go hunt!!

Spot on. This is why I pinch pennies during the year and travel out of state to hunt. Never know when we are off to meet our maker and I want to make the most of the time we have.
" I have hunted almost every day of my life, the rest have been wasted"

 

* Recent Topics

Awesome Hunting Videos by benhuntin
[Today at 02:32:43 PM]


Buddy's first bear by W_Ellison2011
[Today at 02:32:39 PM]


Big Win for the NRA!!! by bearpaw
[Today at 02:32:09 PM]


Badlands Super Day vs Silent Stalker? by Wolfdog2314
[Today at 02:28:31 PM]


Anyone ferment? by merkaba93
[Today at 02:24:50 PM]


Olympic 621 elk tag by weatherbow21
[Today at 02:16:36 PM]


WTS: Martin Prowler Pro 50# and accessories by rabbott
[Today at 02:11:18 PM]


FS: Kifaru Megatarp with Annex by X-Force
[Today at 01:53:08 PM]


How are the berries ripening? by yakimanoob
[Today at 01:28:07 PM]


Brooks Range Caribou Hunt by Machias
[Today at 01:08:23 PM]


Rathdrum Idaho by Machias
[Today at 01:06:54 PM]


Walla Walla area Hunting/Fishing buddy by RookieBow1967
[Today at 01:00:55 PM]


For those that prefer Blondes by Southpole
[Today at 01:00:22 PM]


Helix 7 chirp di GPS g2 hummingbird by Stein
[Today at 12:42:39 PM]


Play Free: Hunting-Washington $100 Monthly Lotto! by gaddy
[Today at 12:36:03 PM]


WTS Camo Hunting Pants by TriggerMike
[Today at 12:16:31 PM]


2018 bear by pianoman9701
[Today at 12:07:28 PM]


Olympic GMU 621 Muzzleloader ELK by Mooner
[Today at 12:04:08 PM]


Project truck by 724wd
[Today at 11:52:21 AM]


Anybody ever build one of these? by fishnfur
[Today at 11:48:25 AM]