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Author Topic: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds  (Read 6097 times)

Offline Stein

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #45 on: May 06, 2018, 02:09:50 PM »
The odds are actually a bit worse as you apply for more than one choice.  Gohunt is the best but they don’t run WA.  For states like ours, you need to run simulations to get the true  odds.

Plug it in, run the draw a couple million times and you approach true odds.

Or, buy the lottery ticket and hop Lady Luck is on your side.


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Offline Biggerhammer

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #46 on: May 20, 2018, 12:36:55 PM »
I drew Observatory Modern Bull with 4 points and Peaches Ridge Modern Bull with 5 Points.

Point is, you never know. The world record California Sheep out of the Swakane Unit was drawn with 6 points.

Throw the dice! 
Embrace the hate.

"Democrats hated my guts, hurled insults at me, made lewd accusations, protested my election and started a civil war.
- Abraham Lincoln -.

“The true eye sees not the despair of its victims, Only the elegance of equilibrium. It's a Demonstration of Superior judgement.”

Offline wheels

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #47 on: May 20, 2018, 12:58:59 PM »
odds are long but someone has to draw

Offline Duckhunter14

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #48 on: May 22, 2018, 12:51:40 PM »
I drew Observatory Modern Bull with 4 points and Peaches Ridge Modern Bull with 5 Points.

Point is, you never know. The world record California Sheep out of the Swakane Unit was drawn with 6 points.

Throw the dice!

Let's see some pics Bighammer!
"I don't hunt to live, I live to hunt."

"Elk don't know how many feet a horse has!"

My two favorite words? Take em!

Offline Biggerhammer

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #49 on: May 22, 2018, 08:25:44 PM »
I’ll laugh my A$$ off if I draw either again with one point this year.

I just have this tingling feeling I’m due for a Colockum Quality Bull permit. 😈
Embrace the hate.

"Democrats hated my guts, hurled insults at me, made lewd accusations, protested my election and started a civil war.
- Abraham Lincoln -.

“The true eye sees not the despair of its victims, Only the elegance of equilibrium. It's a Demonstration of Superior judgement.”

Offline D-Rock425

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #50 on: May 30, 2018, 08:07:35 AM »
The odds are actually a bit worse as you apply for more than one choice.  Gohunt is the best but they don’t run WA.  For states like ours, you need to run simulations to get the true  odds.

Plug it in, run the draw a couple million times and you approach true odds.

Or, buy the lottery ticket and hop Lady Luck is on your side.


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how are odds worse if you apply for more than one hunt?

Offline Stein

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #51 on: May 30, 2018, 10:11:27 AM »
The odds are actually a bit worse as you apply for more than one choice.  Gohunt is the best but they don’t run WA.  For states like ours, you need to run simulations to get the true  odds.

Plug it in, run the draw a couple million times and you approach true odds.

Or, buy the lottery ticket and hop Lady Luck is on your side.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
how are odds worse if you apply for more than one hunt?

The guy that has a number lower than you can have it as his first, second or third choice and pull the tag before they get to your number.  Unless I am wrong, in WA, they look at all your choices before going on to the next guy.  Some states only look at your first before going on, then all the seconds, then all the thirds.

Offline NRA4LIFE

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #52 on: May 30, 2018, 11:48:43 AM »
That is correct.  If you're name comes up, they look at all 4 from your first to last.  If there are any tags left for one of your choices, then you get that tag. 
Look man, some times you just gotta roll the dice

So many free days, so few fish....

Offline Reidus

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #53 on: May 30, 2018, 12:45:26 PM »
That is correct.  If you're name comes up, they look at all 4 from your first to last.  If there are any tags left for one of your choices, then you get that tag.

That's what they say they do anyway.

Offline D-Rock425

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #54 on: May 30, 2018, 01:09:21 PM »
I just always put in for a super hard to draw hunt with normally very few tags available my first choice then a hunt with more tags available on my 2nd choice.

Offline Mr Mykiss

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #55 on: May 30, 2018, 09:07:41 PM »
I put in for hunts and maintain a negative attitude for as long as possible throughout the draw process...at some point I cave and start daydreaming about drawing hunts, then
.
.
.
Dreams shattered!!!!

Offline Duckhunter14

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #56 on: May 30, 2018, 09:19:41 PM »
I put in for hunts and maintain a negative attitude for as long as possible throughout the draw process...at some point I cave and start daydreaming about drawing hunts, then
.
.
.
Dreams shattered!!!!

You an me both! Im staying strong with the negative attitude this year though. Im convinced Im not drawing anything and I wont let the draws play with my heart again!   :bash:
"I don't hunt to live, I live to hunt."

"Elk don't know how many feet a horse has!"

My two favorite words? Take em!

Offline D-Rock425

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #57 on: May 31, 2018, 07:19:55 AM »
I think I'm drawing every single year.

Offline jagermiester

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #58 on: May 31, 2018, 07:59:49 AM »
It's all irrelevant.  I drew a quality with 5 pts.  Dont care what my odds are it's just *censored* ass luck.

Hilarious I think you censored the wrong word :chuckle:

Cmon fellas some lucky dog has to win it. Someday it may be you!
I think its gonna be me this year though I got like 5 points. Sorry 
Lead em if they're running.

Offline notsosneaky

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Re: Peaches Ridge Draw Odds
« Reply #59 on: June 02, 2018, 01:29:24 PM »
It’s extremely difficult to establish actual odds of drawing a given tag. The “names in the hat” analogy is lacking because each “name in the hat” is a randomly generated number, only the lowest of which is put on the list. Meaning, overall, thousands of guys with one point have really long odds and a couple hundred guys with 23 points have really long odds.

 

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