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Author Topic: sheep odds  (Read 1129 times)

Offline oldschool

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sheep odds
« on: December 06, 2018, 08:50:27 AM »
 has anybody figured out the odds for drawing with max points?

Offline X-Force

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2018, 09:00:59 AM »
In 2015 when I looked at this last, Mount Hull which had the best draw odds, had about 0.5% chance with max points. I would think that is slightly less than that now.
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Offline Stein

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sheep odds
« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2018, 09:13:57 AM »
Itís very difficult to calculate true odds with multiple choices in a category.  I believe the only way to do it is run computer models where they run the drawing millions of times to key in on the odds.

That said, itís very low and the vast majority will never draw in their lifetime regardless of how many points one has.


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Offline Buckjunkie

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2018, 09:23:38 AM »
I just checked on the WDFW website and it shows 21 for Sheep and Goat for me. Iím trying to remember if I missed a year. Can someone tel me what the max is if you didnít miss a year. I know a few guys have more from turning in poachers. Iím not interested in their count.

Thanks!

Offline bobcat

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2018, 09:26:08 AM »
The maximum points a person could have is 23. The first year of the point system was 1996.

Offline X-Force

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2018, 09:31:50 AM »
The maximum points a person could have is 23. The first year of the point system was 1996.

And there are no OIL points for turning in poachers.
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Offline boneaddict

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2018, 09:32:31 AM »
I wonder if someone could do the math and show that youd have better odds of drawing with zero points (clean slate) than continuing with the pool flooded with those with 23 (exponential) points.  In other words.....true odds versus the point pool.

Offline X-Force

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2018, 10:42:18 AM »
Draw odds in this state are impossible to get exact.

however,

Last year there were 1,666,684 points in the any ram category, for 20 permits.

If you average points across permits there are 83,334 points per permit. A max point holder had 529 points. 529/83,334= 0.635%

Last year there were 12,530 applicants in the any ram category, for 20 permits.

If you average the applicants across permits there are 627 applicants per permit. Any applicant without a point system would have 1 application. 1/627= 0.159%


Max point holders have 4x better odds then if there were no points.

Last year anyone below 12 points had worse odds than if there were no points. And anyone below 10 points had less than 1/1000 odds. Putting in for the first time had 1/100,000 odds.
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Offline D-Rock425

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2018, 10:49:34 AM »
Draw odds in this state are impossible to get exact.

however,

Last year there were 1,666,684 points in the any ram category, for 20 permits.

If you average points across permits there are 83,334 points per permit. A max point holder had 529 points. 529/83,334= 0.635%

Last year there were 12,530 applicants in the any ram category, for 20 permits.

If you average the applicants across permits there are 627 applicants per permit. Any applicant without a point system would have 1 application. 1/627= 0.159%


Max point holders have 4x better odds then if there were no points.

Last year anyone below 12 points had worse odds than if there were no points. And anyone below 10 points had less than 1/1000 odds. Putting in for the first time had 1/100,000 odds.

so you're telling me there's a chance?

Offline X-Force

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2018, 10:55:23 AM »
Thats one way to look at it.  :chuckle: :chuckle:
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Offline WSU

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2018, 12:20:53 PM »
Draw odds in this state are impossible to get exact.

however,

Last year there were 1,666,684 points in the any ram category, for 20 permits.

If you average points across permits there are 83,334 points per permit. A max point holder had 529 points. 529/83,334= 0.635%

Last year there were 12,530 applicants in the any ram category, for 20 permits.

If you average the applicants across permits there are 627 applicants per permit. Any applicant without a point system would have 1 application. 1/627= 0.159%


Max point holders have 4x better odds then if there were no points.

Last year anyone below 12 points had worse odds than if there were no points. And anyone below 10 points had less than 1/1000 odds. Putting in for the first time had 1/100,000 odds.

so you're telling me there's a chance?

Not really?

Offline boneaddict

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2018, 12:28:53 PM »
There you have it.  Iím trusting your math was good. I refuse to try.   Seems pretty reasonable.   

Now if you really want to fix the odds, go like Idaho.  You can apply for one controlled oil hunt and if you do, no deer or elk.    You gots to make choices.  But I tell you what.  It very much helps with drawing tags.

Offline Rainier10

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2018, 03:21:38 PM »
There you have it.  Iím trusting your math was good. I refuse to try.   Seems pretty reasonable.   

Now if you really want to fix the odds, go like Idaho.  You can apply for one controlled oil hunt and if you do, no deer or elk.    You gots to make choices.  But I tell you what.  It very much helps with drawing tags.
Yep, I put in my $2,200 in advance and still didn't draw an Idaho sheep tag.  I was $2,200  lighter in the wallet for a few months but I had a much better chance.  :chuckle:
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Offline idaho guy

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2018, 04:00:35 PM »
There you have it.  Iím trusting your math was good. I refuse to try.   Seems pretty reasonable.   

Now if you really want to fix the odds, go like Idaho.  You can apply for one controlled oil hunt and if you do, no deer or elk.    You gots to make choices.  But I tell you what.  It very much helps with drawing tags.


I used too hate the way Idaho did it till I saw the odds in other states. Now that I have been educated I love it! It sucks that it took 20 years for my moose and I have not drawn much else but at least least I have a reasonable chance every year. I had 20% odds on an "unpopular" goat hunt last year. Still didn't draw! but nice having not only a chance but a really good one. Those Washington sheep odds are depressing but I will never put in anyways.     

Offline oldschool

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Re: sheep odds
« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2018, 04:19:34 PM »
Why do I live in this state? :bash:

 

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