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Author Topic: "points" is there really a point  (Read 5591 times)

Offline beauhunter

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #60 on: May 15, 2019, 01:13:29 PM »
Well take peaches ridge drawing, 1706 applications, say that each person has 10 points that puts in. That means there will be 170,600 random numbers generated and each applicant will get their lowest RANDOM number assigned.

Offline bobcat

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #61 on: May 15, 2019, 01:16:18 PM »
The person with 1 point gets 1 random number. The person with 10 points gets 100 random numbers. Who is more likely to have the lowest number?

Offline beauhunter

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #62 on: May 15, 2019, 01:24:59 PM »
Ask all the people that have 15 and above points the likelihood. F&g use to show a spreadsheet of how many points each category was drawn with and most were in the lower end 8-12

Offline Skillet

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #63 on: May 15, 2019, 01:43:32 PM »
The person with 1 point gets 1 random number. The person with 10 points gets 100 random numbers. Who is more likely to have the lowest number?
For the single year that only two people apply for the one available tag, one guy with one point and one with 10 points, clearly the guy with 10 points has better odds.

But that never happens, nor will it.  A more appropriate analogy-

The guy with 10 points this year goes in a hat against the 9 guys with 4 points this year.

Last year, he had 9 points (representing 81 chances) against 10 guys with their total of 3 points (representing 90 chances).  That gave him a 81 in 171 chance of getting the lowest number assigned, or 47.36% odds. 

But, one of the 3 point guys drew his tag, so now there's a single 10 point guy and only nine 4 point guys for this year.  Slam dunk, right? 

Nope.

This year he has 10 points for 100 chances vs. the other 9 guys' 4 points for 144 cumulative chances.  That gives him a 100 in 244 chance of getting the lowest number, or 40.98% odds.

He's losing ground, and that's with nobody else getting into the draws.  My example is a bit extreme, the actual reduction in year-over-year odds are very small, but make no mistake - odds to draw for the higher point holders go down every year.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2019, 01:52:41 PM by Skillet »
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Offline Bob33

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #64 on: May 15, 2019, 02:03:53 PM »
The person with 1 point gets 1 random number. The person with 10 points gets 100 random numbers. Who is more likely to have the lowest number?
For the single year that only two people apply for the one available tag, one guy with one point and one with 10 points, clearly the guy with 10 points has better odds.

But that never happens, nor will it.  A more appropriate analogy-

The guy with 10 points this year goes in a hat against the 9 guys with 4 points this year.

Last year, he had 9 points (representing 81 chances) against 10 guys with their total of 3 points (representing 90 chances).  That gave him a 81 in 171 chance of getting the lowest number assigned, or 47.36% odds. 

But, one of the 3 point guys drew his tag, so now there's a single 10 point guy and only nine 4 point guys for this year.  Slam dunk, right? 

Nope.

This year he has 10 points for 100 chances vs. the other 9 guys' 4 points for 144 cumulative chances.  That gives him a 100 in 244 chance of getting the lowest number, or 40.98% odds.

He's losing ground, and that's with nobody else getting into the draws.  My example is a bit extreme, the actual reduction in year-over-year odds are very small, but make no mistake - odds to draw for the higher point holders go down every year.
Bobcat's point is that the applicant with ten points will have better odds than the applicant with one point. That will be true regardless of what his own odds do year-to-year.
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Offline vandeman17

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #65 on: May 15, 2019, 02:23:05 PM »
All I know is that unless the format changes, if/when I draw something, it will be the last application for me in that category. I am sitting on 14 quality deer points and would be absolutely shocked if I drew this year, or in the next 5-10.
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Offline Skillet

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #66 on: May 15, 2019, 02:25:17 PM »
The person with 1 point gets 1 random number. The person with 10 points gets 100 random numbers. Who is more likely to have the lowest number?
For the single year that only two people apply for the one available tag, one guy with one point and one with 10 points, clearly the guy with 10 points has better odds.

But that never happens, nor will it.  A more appropriate analogy-

The guy with 10 points this year goes in a hat against the 9 guys with 4 points this year.

Last year, he had 9 points (representing 81 chances) against 10 guys with their total of 3 points (representing 90 chances).  That gave him a 81 in 171 chance of getting the lowest number assigned, or 47.36% odds. 

But, one of the 3 point guys drew his tag, so now there's a single 10 point guy and only nine 4 point guys for this year.  Slam dunk, right? 

Nope.

This year he has 10 points for 100 chances vs. the other 9 guys' 4 points for 144 cumulative chances.  That gives him a 100 in 244 chance of getting the lowest number, or 40.98% odds.

He's losing ground, and that's with nobody else getting into the draws.  My example is a bit extreme, the actual reduction in year-over-year odds are very small, but make no mistake - odds to draw for the higher point holders go down every year.
Bobcat's point is that the applicant with ten points will have better odds than the applicant with one point. That will be true regardless of what his own odds do year-to-year.
Sure, but that's like me complaining about my taxes going way up this year, and somebody else simply saying "I paid $5000 in taxes" without saying what they paid last year.  There's no context, it's just a single data point.

There's two points that keep coming up in this topic that people try to make more important than the other.

 Point #1 - The guy with higher points has better odds than the guy with lower points in any given draw.  Obvious. 2 is always more than 1.

Point #2 - The "accumulation" of points is not increasing year-over-year odds for the higher point holders.  Counter-intuitive, and definitely off-message for the WDFW fee generating machine.

Using point #1 to argue against point #2 doesn't make sense.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2019, 03:03:31 PM by Skillet »
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Offline hunterednate

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #67 on: May 15, 2019, 02:37:43 PM »
I'd be curious to see the overall age demographics of current point builders/holders.

For big game hunters in general, there's a huge population of boomers and older, decreasing sharply with the millennial generation. I talked with an older guy yesterday who is holding 19 mountain goat points but decided he's no longer applying - feels like he couldn't handle the mountain this year.

What will the application game look like 30 years from now when the youngest babyboomers are in their 90's?

I'd be surprised if there's not a dramatic decrease in applicants as older hunters age out of applying for hunts. This will cause massive management budget shortfalls, so I'm sure tag prices will skyrocket...but I also wouldn't be surprised if some tags are easier to draw in the year 2049 (assuming hunting is still legal).

Offline vandeman17

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #68 on: May 15, 2019, 02:41:28 PM »
All I know is that unless the format changes, if/when I draw something, it will be the last application for me in that category. I am sitting on 14 quality deer points and would be absolutely shocked if I drew this year, or in the next 5-10.
Sure, but that's like me complaining about my taxes going way up this year, and somebody else simply saying "I paid $5000 in taxes" without saying what they paid last year.  There's no context, it's just a single data point.

There's two points that keep coming up in this topic that people try to make more important than the other.

 Point #1 - The guy with higher points has better odds than the guy with lower points in any given draw.  Obvious. 2 is always more than 1.

Point #2 - The "accumulation" of points is not increasing year-over-year odds for the higher point holders.  Counter-intuitive, and definitely off-message for the WDFW fee generating machine.

Using point #1 to argue against point #2 doesn't make sense.

Not sure I follow but basically what I am saying is that, while I know technically everyone has a chance, I don't see myself starting over and going back in with one point. It has nothing to do with the cost of the applications but more so what I get in return. I have hunted other states and know that many of their OTC hunts are as good, if not better, than our quality tags. For that reason, I have no problem paying the extra money for license and then applying for a special permit there. At least I have good OTC hunts to fall back on instead of here where, if you apply for eastside archery elk and strike out, you are stuck going after cows/spike in a crowded season.  :twocents:
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Offline slowhand

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #69 on: May 15, 2019, 02:52:28 PM »
I'd be curious to see the overall age demographics of current point builders/holders.

For big game hunters in general, there's a huge population of boomers and older, decreasing sharply with the millennial generation. I talked with an older guy yesterday who is holding 19 mountain goat points but decided he's no longer applying - feels like he couldn't handle the mountain this year.

What will the application game look like 30 years from now when the youngest babyboomers are in their 90's?

I'd be surprised if there's not a dramatic decrease in applicants as older hunters age out of applying for hunts. This will cause massive management budget shortfalls, so I'm sure tag prices will skyrocket...but I also wouldn't be surprised if some tags are easier to draw in the year 2049 (assuming hunting is still legal).
This is exactly what I'm banking on. The old guys with tons of points die every year and others throw in the towel. I'm 42 now and plan to put in for every option I can until I draw or die of old age. My hope is to get two quality tags for elk and Deer before My days of hunting are done.
I do hope they go to a preference point system at some point. People with loads of points should get their tags first. Or at least 75% of the tags should go to the top points holders. My opinion is Wyoming has the best system.
This will be My first year putting in for Wyoming points as well as Washington.
Looking into others also. They are all so different. Takes quite a bit of time to just learn one state much less all of the good ones.
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Offline Skillet

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #70 on: May 15, 2019, 03:01:55 PM »
Not sure I follow but basically what I am saying is that, while I know technically everyone has a chance, I don't see myself starting over and going back in with one point. It has nothing to do with the cost of the applications but more so what I get in return. I have hunted other states and know that many of their OTC hunts are as good, if not better, than our quality tags. For that reason, I have no problem paying the extra money for license and then applying for a special permit there. At least I have good OTC hunts to fall back on instead of here where, if you apply for eastside archery elk and strike out, you are stuck going after cows/spike in a crowded season.  :twocents:
My bad, meant to quote Bob.  I'll fix it
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Offline jeffitz

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #71 on: May 15, 2019, 04:28:28 PM »
Just applied for Quality Elk(19pts),Bull Elk(19), Any Moose(15), and Goat(6) lastnight and have zero faith i will draw a damn thing but i cant stop trying
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Offline Stein

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #72 on: May 15, 2019, 07:20:47 PM »
It's not the old guys you need to worry about, it's everyone.  My kid already has 3 elk points and he's in elementary school.  The total number of applicants goes up every year.  It would really take a big change to drive the applications down and since that would mean a big loss of revenue, I don't see it.

It's like Powerball, play if you want but don't expect to ever have anything other than long odds. 

Offline slowhand

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #73 on: May 15, 2019, 10:55:55 PM »
Just applied for Quality Elk(19pts),Bull Elk(19), Any Moose(15), and Goat(6) lastnight and have zero faith i will draw a damn thing but i cant stop trying
Thatís some serious ammo. I have a good feeling this is your year.
I hope you get the quality tag your after. You deserve it with that many points.
Can I ask your age? Whatís your #1 hope tag wise?
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Offline Skyvalhunter

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #74 on: May 16, 2019, 05:17:45 AM »
Just applied for Quality Elk(19pts),Bull Elk(19), Any Moose(15), and Goat(6) lastnight and have zero faith i will draw a damn thing but i cant stop trying

Sure you can

 


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