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Author Topic: "points" is there really a point  (Read 4947 times)

Offline SteelheadTed

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #105 on: May 21, 2019, 12:10:10 PM »
Im pretty sure that I can hit an elk with 28 shots...but Im also pretty sure that 10 guys with 10 shots each will hit it before me.

OK, but YOU have better odds than everyone of those guys.   
I know I've lost it, let me know if you come across it

Offline SteelheadTed

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #106 on: May 21, 2019, 12:13:50 PM »

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.
:yeah:

I think the majority understand how the odds go but at least for me, I know that the difference between 5 points and 20 points for the "quality" tags is negligible in the grand scheme of things. When both have below 1% odds, the difference in those point totals don't really mean much to me.

THAT is the important distinction, that yes, you have better odds with more points but if your odds are 1% and someone else's is 0.7% you both have poor odds.  Agreed. 
I know I've lost it, let me know if you come across it

Offline Mr Mykiss

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #107 on: May 21, 2019, 09:38:58 PM »
Im pretty sure that I can hit an elk with 28 shots...but Im also pretty sure that 10 guys with 10 shots each will hit it before me.

OK, but YOU have better odds than everyone of those guys.
Ah ha!!
Indeed I do.
See ...will hit it before I do
Most of the points in the hat are from guys with 10-15 Points, not max.
Hence the fact that a lot of people draw in that point range...even with much worse individual odds.

Offline SuperX

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #108 on: May 22, 2019, 05:43:44 AM »
Im pretty sure that I can hit an elk with 28 shots...but Im also pretty sure that 10 guys with 10 shots each will hit it before me.

OK, but YOU have better odds than everyone of those guys.
Ah ha!!
Indeed I do.
See ...will hit it before I do
Most of the points in the hat are from guys with 10-15 Points, not max.
Hence the fact that a lot of people draw in that point range...even with much worse individual odds.
of course one of them would draw first, they have the better odds as a group - 100 shots to 28.  If you pick one of the 10, you have the odds on your side 28 to 10

Offline ljsommer

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #109 on: May 22, 2019, 06:18:51 AM »
Here's a question I've never asked before but have wondered: How good are our quality tags? For example, how good is our quality bull elk tag compared to say, Idaho OTC elk?

Online Magnum_Willys

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #110 on: May 22, 2019, 06:29:59 AM »
Our Quality tags while down are still much better than Idaho Otc in general.  Now if you have an Idaho honey hole you may have a better chance than an unscouted  road hunt in a quality WA area but all else being equal look at success odds of WA Quality vs Idaho general.    Much better in WA quality WA - if you are the lucky one in a hundred.

Offline Karl Blanchard

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #111 on: May 22, 2019, 07:08:26 AM »
We have incredible bull tags in this state! Most units have world class top end potential and there are lots of critters.

Deer though? There's only one tag in this state I would return my zero point CO tag for :twocents:
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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #112 on: May 22, 2019, 07:11:03 AM »
We have incredible bull tags in this state! Most units have world class top end potential and there are lots of critters.

Deer though? There's only one tag in this state I would return my zero point CO tag for :twocents:
AAAAAAAAAAnd which one is that????????????     :chuckle:
In common with..... not so much!!

Offline ctwiggs1

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #113 on: May 22, 2019, 07:45:55 AM »
We have incredible bull tags in this state! Most units have world class top end potential and there are lots of critters.

Deer though? There's only one tag in this state I would return my zero point CO tag for :twocents:
AAAAAAAAAAnd which one is that????????????     :chuckle:

Why do I have a feeling you aren't going to say Entiat or Desert.... :dunno:

Offline Karl Blanchard

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #114 on: May 22, 2019, 07:57:49 AM »
We have incredible bull tags in this state! Most units have world class top end potential and there are lots of critters.

Deer though? There's only one tag in this state I would return my zero point CO tag for :twocents:
AAAAAAAAAAnd which one is that????????????     :chuckle:

Why do I have a feeling you aren't going to say Entiat or Desert.... :dunno:
I'm not gonna say another word  :hello: :chuckle:
It is foolish and wrong to mourn these men.  Rather, we should thank god that such men lived.  -General George S. Patton

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Offline JimmyHoffa

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #115 on: May 22, 2019, 08:05:41 AM »
Here's a question I've never asked before but have wondered: How good are our quality tags? For example, how good is our quality bull elk tag compared to say, Idaho OTC elk?
There's one unit I've hunted for a long time chasing bear after early archery season.  It is the same time that a couple quality bull permits are active for that area.  It's crazy to think it is the same unit.  Almost no people and elk are running around and rutting like normal, weather is finally cooling.  If it rains, mushroomers might be around looking for chants, but that's it.  So, the quality permits are actually a pretty good deal, imo.

Offline Stein

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #116 on: May 22, 2019, 08:34:12 AM »
I haven't drawn a quality, but I will say the Peaches bull tag I drew was overall a better tag then the general MT hunts I have been on.  Of course that really depends on what tag you draw in WA and how good of a spot you hunt on the general tag.

The best part of the tags in WA isn't the quality of the elk, it is that there are severely restricted hunters (quality of the experience).  You can look at the B&C books and see that WA doesn't hold a candle to most of the big elk states, but with a good WA tag you will be facing very little hunting pressure in places with good hunting.

I'm sure there are exceptions to that, but if you are the 1/1,000 that draws one, you will have a good tag.

Offline D-Rock425

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #117 on: May 22, 2019, 09:11:43 AM »
We have incredible bull tags in this state! Most units have world class top end potential and there are lots of critters.

Deer though? There's only one tag in this state I would return my zero point CO tag for :twocents:
AAAAAAAAAAnd which one is that????????????     :chuckle:

Why do I have a feeling you aren't going to say Entiat or Desert.... :dunno:
I'm not gonna say another word  :hello: :chuckle:
:chuckle:

Offline vandeman17

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #118 on: May 22, 2019, 09:17:09 AM »
I haven't drawn a quality, but I will say the Peaches bull tag I drew was overall a better tag then the general MT hunts I have been on.  Of course that really depends on what tag you draw in WA and how good of a spot you hunt on the general tag.

The best part of the tags in WA isn't the quality of the elk, it is that there are severely restricted hunters (quality of the experience).  You can look at the B&C books and see that WA doesn't hold a candle to most of the big elk states, but with a good WA tag you will be facing very little hunting pressure in places with good hunting.

I'm sure there are exceptions to that, but if you are the 1/1,000 that draws one, you will have a good tag.

Also an aspect to note is that states like montana, their OTC seasons are MUCH longer so instead of the quality permit being like 6 days, you can have 2 months to hunt. That is a huge factor as far as "quality" for me. Not to mention not having to use a specific weapon. This gives me tons more schedule flexibility as well as being able to play the weather or make multiple trips.  :twocents:
" I have hunted almost every day of my life, the rest have been wasted"

Offline Stein

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #119 on: May 22, 2019, 10:52:26 AM »
Very true.  In MT, the season is 11 weeks and in many if not most OTC units you can take a bull or cow so there is more opportunity if you are most interested in meat.

There is also the comparison that you can hunt nearly every year in MT & CO and you will most likely be waiting a couple of decades for that WA tag, if the tag still exists when you win the lottery.

 


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