Big Game Hunting > Other Big Game

best draw for moose unit wise

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boneaddict:
The wolves moved into the Idaho side of Mica, and they go where their food is, as you know, the  stateline means nothing.

WAcoueshunter:

--- Quote from: Bob33 on January 20, 2014, 01:40:48 PM ---With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.

--- End quote ---

Definitely good advice, although I'm not sure about the math. 

In 2012, there were 13,068 49DN applicants with an average of 6 points, or 470,448 total numbers in the draw.  Divide by 21 49DN tags, equals 22,402 numbers in the draw per tag.  Someone with 19 points would have 361 numbers in the draw.  22,402/361 = 62, or 1:62 odds.

If that same person put in for three other units, his/her overall odds would get down to 1:15 or so.

bobcat:
There's no possible way moose odds ever get close to 1 in 15. But I sure wish that were true!

WAcoueshunter:

--- Quote from: bobcat on January 21, 2014, 10:49:05 AM ---There's no possible way moose odds ever get close to 1 in 15. But I sure wish that were true!

--- End quote ---

Feel free to point out where the math is incorrect.  I'm not a statistician, but I think that math gets you pretty close.  Also, if you just eyeball the point totals, those guys at the top are in the 1:30 range.  10 successful applicants out of 372 applications with 18 points, 7 out of 244 with 16 points, etc.  Could be that some of those guys don't put in for all four choices, which would lower their odds.  Could be that my math is a little off somewhere.  Either way, it's a whole lot lower than 1:125.

Bob33:

--- Quote from: WAcoueshunter on January 21, 2014, 10:36:12 AM ---
--- Quote from: Bob33 on January 20, 2014, 01:40:48 PM ---With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.

--- End quote ---

Definitely good advice, although I'm not sure about the math. 

In 2012, there were 13,068 49DN applicants with an average of 6 points, or 470,448 total numbers in the draw.  Divide by 21 49DN tags, equals 22,402 numbers in the draw per tag.  Someone with 19 points would have 361 numbers in the draw.  22,402/361 = 62, or 1:62 odds.

If that same person put in for three other units, his/her overall odds would get down to 1:15 or so.

--- End quote ---
Average points don't work for this. You need to compute "names in the hat" individually.  There were 890,434 names in the hat for 49 DN. See below. Example - for the three applicants with 19 points, there were 1083 names in the hat: 19^2 x 3.

Points   Applications   Names
19   3   1083
18   5   1620
17   332   95948
16   189   48384
15   203   45675
14   568   111328
13   568   95992
12   584   84096
11   617   74657
10   677   67700
9   847   68607
8   860   55040
7   875   42875
6   992   35712
5   1095   27375
4   1130   18080
3   1148   10332
2   1185   4740
1   1190   1190
Totals   13068   890434

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