Big Game Hunting > Other Big Game
best draw for moose unit wise
idahohuntr:
--- Quote from: WAcoueshunter on January 21, 2014, 10:58:46 AM ---
--- Quote from: bobcat on January 21, 2014, 10:49:05 AM ---There's no possible way moose odds ever get close to 1 in 15. But I sure wish that were true!
--- End quote ---
Ummm, okay. Feel free to point out where the math is incorrect. I'm not a statistician, but I think that math gets you pretty close.
--- End quote ---
Your average points calculation is incorrect...there were approximately 890,000 "names in the hat" for the 49 moose tag in 2012...not 470k.
I am really uncertain how best to go about cumulative probabilities with putting in for 4 moose hunts...it is definitely in your interest to do so...1:15 does seem too low...just looking at the distribution of tags for "max" points holders it has hovered around 1:35-1:40...which is acutally quite a bit lower (better) odds than I would have expected...maybe in some scenarios your odds approach 1:15 :dunno:
I think with the OIL species draw odds are kind of pointless (pun intended) :chuckle: :chuckle:
Bob33:
"I am really uncertain how best to go about cumulative probabilities with putting in for 4 moose hunts...it is definitely in your interest to do so"
Here's how. First, compute the odds of not drawing any of the four.
The odds of not drawing the first choice is 1 - 'odds of drawing'. For sake of discussion, let's assume all four units have a 1 in 100 chance. That means the chance of not drawing the first choice = 1 - .01 = .99. The odds of not drawing the second choice is .99. Same for the third and four.
Therefore the odds of not drawing any of the four is .99 x .99 x .99 x .99 = approximately .9606. The odds of drawing one of them is thus 1 - .9606 or about .0394.
Some people mistakenly believe that you can add individual probabilites. It's easy to see the falacity of this if you consider a coin flip. The odds of flipping heads is 50%. However, flipping the coin twice does not produce a 100% chance of getting heads.
Using the reverse method is often the easiest way to solve this problem.
WAcoueshunter:
--- Quote from: Bob33 on January 21, 2014, 11:12:51 AM ---
--- Quote from: WAcoueshunter on January 21, 2014, 10:36:12 AM ---
--- Quote from: Bob33 on January 20, 2014, 01:40:48 PM ---With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.
--- End quote ---
Definitely good advice, although I'm not sure about the math.
In 2012, there were 13,068 49DN applicants with an average of 6 points, or 470,448 total numbers in the draw. Divide by 21 49DN tags, equals 22,402 numbers in the draw per tag. Someone with 19 points would have 361 numbers in the draw. 22,402/361 = 62, or 1:62 odds.
If that same person put in for three other units, his/her overall odds would get down to 1:15 or so.
--- End quote ---
Average points don't work for this. You need to compute "names in the hat" individually. There were 890,434 names in the hat for 49 DN. See below. Example - for the three applicants with 19 points, there were 1083 names in the hat: 19^2 x 3.
Points Applications Names
19 3 1083
18 5 1620
17 332 95948
16 189 48384
15 203 45675
14 568 111328
13 568 95992
12 584 84096
11 617 74657
10 677 67700
9 847 68607
8 860 55040
7 875 42875
6 992 35712
5 1095 27375
4 1130 18080
3 1148 10332
2 1185 4740
1 1190 1190
Totals 13068 890434
--- End quote ---
Yes, the average I used is off. I assumed 6 (for all moose applicants), but it appears to be closer to 8. The average 49DN applicant has 8.255 points, so odds for someone with 19 points would be 890,434/21/361 = 1:117.
I just added up the numbers for Hangman and got 166,592/7/361 = 1:66 for someone with 19 points. If you also applied for three of the other less popular units (Kettle, Three Forks, etc.), overall odds with four choices should be down in the 1:25 range.
Bob33:
"I just added up the numbers for Hangman and got 166,592/7/361 = 1:66 for someone with 19 points. If you also applied for three of the other less popular units (Kettle, Three Forks, etc.), overall odds with four choices should be down in the 1:25 range."
A person with 19 points, assume he lives long enough does have some hope of drawing in his lifetime if he puts in for multiple units every year. Still, he would have to put in with the with 1 in 25 odds for 17 years to get to a 50/50 chance of drawing. Anyone with less than 19 points obviously has worse odds.
WAcoueshunter:
--- Quote from: Bob33 on January 21, 2014, 12:13:00 PM ---"I just added up the numbers for Hangman and got 166,592/7/361 = 1:66 for someone with 19 points. If you also applied for three of the other less popular units (Kettle, Three Forks, etc.), overall odds with four choices should be down in the 1:25 range."
A person with 19 points, assume he lives long enough does have some hope of drawing in his lifetime if he puts in for multiple units every year. Still, he would have to put in with the with 1 in 25 odds for 17 years to get to a 50/50 chance of drawing. Anyone with less than 19 points obviously has worse odds.
--- End quote ---
Besides tag numbers and number of applicants, points creep could have a huge impact over time. Wonder what the trend is?
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