Post by: bowman31 on February 23, 2013, 04:45:33 PM
Post by: jrebel on February 23, 2013, 04:50:41 PM
Post by: JPhelps on February 23, 2013, 04:52:16 PM
Post by: huntnphool on February 23, 2013, 04:55:27 PM
Want to get everyone opinion last year i gambled on the east side tag and did not draw so I did not hunt elk and do not want to do that again that being said with 9 points would you put in for Marget bull And mudflow bull and maybe draw losing 9 years of points or buy a ghost points for a few years and try for the eastside again so my ? is is the margret or mudflow worth the pointsIf you want to hunt the east side then why would you wait a few years while ghost pointing to apply? You could draw with 10, 11 or 12 points, you never know. :twocents:
Post by: jrebel on February 23, 2013, 04:59:04 PM
Want to get everyone opinion last year i gambled on the east side tag and did not draw so I did not hunt elk and do not want to do that again that being said with 9 points would you put in for Marget bull And mudflow bull and maybe draw losing 9 years of points or buy a ghost points for a few years and try for the eastside again so my ? is is the margret or mudflow worth the pointsIf you want to hunt the east side then why would you wait a few years while ghost pointing to apply? You could draw with 10, 11 or 12 points, you never know. :twocents:
The way I undstand it...if he doesn't draw the tag, he doesn't hunt at all because all he wants to hunt the eastside for is a big bull. If this is indeed the case you will likely not hunt elk for many a year till you finally draw. Huntnphool is right though, you could draw with any amount of points.....just the odds are not in your favor with low points.
Post by: jackelope on February 23, 2013, 05:09:17 PM
Post by: JPhelps on February 23, 2013, 05:12:15 PM
Post by: bowman31 on February 23, 2013, 05:13:24 PM
Post by: huntnphool on February 23, 2013, 05:29:46 PM
That being said is the margaret or mudflow a good tag to draw anymore or should i hold out and gain so more pointsI dont think you are understanding. Either way you choose, east or west, you should not use ghost points if you want to hunt. If you want to hunt east, and are content with ghost points for a few years until you have what you believe is going to be enough, then you have already conceded to the fact that you are not going to hunt elk for those ghost point years. What I'm saying is if you are already prepared to not hunt, then why not just apply for the east side permit you want anyway? Your point situation will not change either way, you still get your point if you don't draw but at least you have a chance of drawing, with the ghost point you don't.
If you just want to accumulate points until you have 12 or so before applying east, but still want to hunt, then buy a west side tag and go with your ghost point to make sure you don't draw. If you apply with 9 points to mudflow or Margaret you risk losing those points for the east. :twocents:
Post by: kentrek on February 23, 2013, 05:44:20 PM
plus that way you could get a killer pic of your kill with the other side of the mtn in the back ground :tup:
Post by: sirmissalot on February 23, 2013, 05:48:58 PM
Post by: bowman31 on February 23, 2013, 06:06:31 PM
not nessecarally a monster just one i would love to hang on the wall I guess i dont understand the point buy thing i thought u could buy a point not put in for any tags and then next year have a new point just like i put in for a tag not sure what you mean buy not being able to hunt if i buy a point
Post by: jrebel on February 23, 2013, 06:12:21 PM
I have killed a bull before and i would like if i draw to shoot an above average bull
not nessecarally a monster just one i would love to hang on the wall I guess i dont understand the point buy thing i thought u could buy a point not put in for any tags and then next year have a new point just like i put in for a tag not sure what you mean buy not being able to hunt if i buy a point
You can just buy a "ghost point"
Post by: skywalker253 on February 23, 2013, 06:13:48 PM
Want to get everyone opinion last year i gambled on the east side tag and did not draw so I did not hunt elk and do not want to do that again that being said with 9 points would you put in for Marget bull And mudflow bull and maybe draw losing 9 years of points or buy a ghost points for a few years and try for the eastside again so my ? is is the margret or mudflow worth the pointsIf you want to hunt the east side then why would you wait a few years while ghost pointing to apply? You could draw with 10, 11 or 12 points, you never know. :twocents:
Or you could draw at 24 points and waste several years of hunting. I would ghost point until you get 15 points and hunt the westside. You can still harvest a nice bull during any of the general seasons. I think a giant 6 x 6 Rosie is much more fullfilling then a giant 6 x 6 eastside elk. Rosie's are way more challenging to harvest. IMO
Post by: jrebel on February 23, 2013, 06:19:53 PM
Post by: mtman on February 23, 2013, 06:24:08 PM
Post by: bucklucky on February 23, 2013, 07:21:24 PM
Post by: bobcat on February 23, 2013, 07:31:46 PM
Post by: JPhelps on February 23, 2013, 07:57:02 PM
I have set up a system that certain units are worth a certain amount of points. Once I get "invested" past that unit I move on to the next tier of units that I feel are WORTH my points.
Post by: kentrek on February 23, 2013, 08:38:27 PM
I have set up a system that certain units are worth a certain amount of points. Once I get "invested" past that unit I move on to the next tier of units that I feel are WORTH my points.
just for kicks id like to see your system
im having a hard time putting years of applying to inches of horn
Post by: LBES on February 23, 2013, 09:34:37 PM
Post by: jasonstevens on February 24, 2013, 12:03:25 PM
Post by: JBar on February 24, 2013, 12:24:21 PM
Post by: JPhelps on February 24, 2013, 12:47:47 PM
I have set up a system that certain units are worth a certain amount of points. Once I get "invested" past that unit I move on to the next tier of units that I feel are WORTH my points.
just for kicks id like to see your system
im having a hard time putting years of applying to inches of horn
Here is my system. It uses out of state hunts to supplement my need for a chance at big bulls.
I have 5 west side units that I would ever use points on:
Tier 1: Only one unit that I will use all points on
Tier 2: One unit I was willing to use 7 points on
Tier 3. There were 3 units I thought were worth 3 to 4 points
Some Day I would like to use my points on the east side but it isn't that important.
Post by: coachcw on February 24, 2013, 02:05:56 PM
Post by: colockumelk on February 24, 2013, 03:34:09 PM
Just draw a muti season elk tag then you can put in for whatever hunt you want . If your a west side hunter then whats wrong with putting in for a west side quality tag ? you get to hunt bulls every year any how . I was gonna start putting in for the blues this year but figured that I rather hunt a unit I know better .
I hope you draw the tag I think your putting in for. :tup:
Post by: coachcw on February 25, 2013, 12:48:06 PM
;)thanks cloc.Just draw a muti season elk tag then you can put in for whatever hunt you want . If your a west side hunter then whats wrong with putting in for a west side quality tag ? you get to hunt bulls every year any how . I was gonna start putting in for the blues this year but figured that I rather hunt a unit I know better .
I hope you draw the tag I think your putting in for. :tup:
Post by: dvolmer on February 26, 2013, 02:02:50 PM
Post by: idahohuntr on February 26, 2013, 10:29:59 PM
The only way not to get drawn is to not put in, but when you look at the numbers they are grim...I really lost hope when I found that even IF I had 20 points going into the 2012 draw, the odds of getting a Dayton tag would be 16.825% :bash:
Post by: kentrek on February 27, 2013, 08:06:45 AM
I am not sure about quality of either unit you discussed...but I do crunch numbers on all the draw units and your odds of drawing the mudflow permit (hunt 2041) with 9 points using 2012 data is 1.658%. For comparative purposes, again using 2012 draw info., if you had 9 points for the Dayton unit (hunt 2006) your draw odds more than double to a whopping 3.652% :)
The only way not to get drawn is to not put in, but when you look at the numbers they are grim...I really lost hope when I found that even IF I had 20 points going into the 2012 draw, the odds of getting a Dayton tag would be 16.825% :bash:
at least the probabilities keep adding from year to year..so around 10-15 points it shouldnt take too long to get the tag ya want..which is still way to long :bash: gives lots of time to scout tho
Here is my system. It uses out of state hunts to supplement my need for a chance at big bulls.
I have 5 west side units that I would ever use points on:
Tier 1: Only one unit that I will use all points on
Tier 2: One unit I was willing to use 7 points on
Tier 3. There were 3 units I thought were worth 3 to 4 points
thats pretty much the same idea ive came up with..starting to feel like im past "my" tier 3 and tier 2 already tho so who knows how long its gona take to draw
im starting to think a Vancouver island hunt might not be such a bad idea....
Post by: judojudd on February 27, 2013, 12:56:51 PM
He can ghost point it and still hunt branch antlered bulls on the west side. That's what I would do if I was saving points for the Blues and didn't want to hunt spikes.
That's what I do. Not preferable but there are some great hunts on the westside if you do some homework. When I get to 15+ points I may start spike hunting the eastside unit I'm putting in for (unless I get lucky and get drawn). Ah, the travails of the washington elk system. :'(
Post by: idahohuntr on February 27, 2013, 01:12:18 PM
Not exactly sure what you mean here...but your probabilities do not get added from year to year...each draw is an independent event.
Post by: grundy53 on February 27, 2013, 01:38:21 PM
sent from my typewriter
Post by: kentrek on February 27, 2013, 01:40:58 PM
"at least the probabilities keep adding from year to year..so around 10-15 points it shouldnt take too long to get the tag ya want..which is still way to long :bash: gives lots of time to scout tho"
Not exactly sure what you mean here...but your probabilities do not get added from year to year...each draw is an independent event.
if thev prob or drawing first year is "x" and the prob of drawing the second year is "y"...the prob of drawing one of those two years is "x"+"y"
statistics comes in handy :tup:
Post by: trophyhunt on February 27, 2013, 02:27:45 PM
Post by: steeleywhopper on February 27, 2013, 02:56:44 PM
It's already been said but I'll say it again, put in for multi elk so if you get it you can put in for east but hunt the west where you don't have to wait 20+ years to draw a big bull tag. I have 17 this year and I hope to draw the multi tag so when I don't get drawn I won't miss out on my Wa elk hunt either. Don't get your hopes up of drawing cause you have 9 points, I had my hopes up when I hit 8 points all the way till 13, then I just gave up hoping and realized my odds weren't that much better than when I had 8. No poacher points for me, just getting older and waiting. I don't hunt spikes where I'm putting in because I plan on using mnt cook's help, that will be the only time I pay for a guided hunt in Wa for elk. If you put in for margaret and draw, don't shoot the limping bull with the 10'' long, rotting toe nails. I wouldn't waste my points on margaret, I'd go for the white myself. I wouldn't over look those good little natches tags, with those points and the help of a certain outfitter over there you could end up with a wall hanger. There are some big bulls in the 346, and the guides know where they are at.
My plan exactly!
Post by: idahohuntr on February 27, 2013, 04:02:23 PM
"at least the probabilities keep adding from year to year..so around 10-15 points it shouldnt take too long to get the tag ya want..which is still way to long :bash: gives lots of time to scout tho"
Not exactly sure what you mean here...but your probabilities do not get added from year to year...each draw is an independent event.
if thev prob or drawing first year is "x" and the prob of drawing the second year is "y"...the prob of drawing one of those two years is "x"+"y"
statistics comes in handy :tup:
Yes, statistics does come in handy, but unfortunately you are not correct. You are repeating what is refferred to as the Gambler's Fallacy. Because each years draw is an independent event it is not appropriate to add the probabilities together. For example, if you flip a coin 20 times and get a heads each time, that does not change the probability of getting a heads on the 21st toss...the probability is still 1/2 (if you are flipping a fair coin of course).
So, in something like a tag draw suppose I have 15 points and that is ~12% chance of drawing a Dayton bull tag and I do not get drawn. I put in next year with 16 points and lets assume my draw odds go up to 13% because I have more points. The probability of drawing the second year is not 12+13 = 25%....my draw odds for the second year are still 13%...and they only increased because I have more points...which may not be a correct assumption depending on whether permit levels or hunter applications/point combos increased or decreased.
This seems like too much math for a hunting forum....although all the draws these days darn near require a lawyer and statistician :chuckle:
Post by: Bob33 on February 27, 2013, 04:11:05 PM
Post by: pendoreilleadventures on February 27, 2013, 04:18:52 PM
Post by: idahohuntr on February 27, 2013, 04:30:22 PM
If the odds one year are 12% and the odds the second year are 13% , the odds of drawing at least one year are 23.4%.
Im just not going to win on this one :chuckle:
I wish what you were saying was true b/c I would have a lot more hope about getting a tag!...but a draw one year has no effect on drawing the second year. My odds of drawing a tag the second year are not influenced (save for an additional point) by my not drawing in the previous year.
What you guys are suggesting probability wise would require 2 random draws to occur in the same year with the same hunters/points/tags etc. Then yes, if we run the draw twice or 5 times or 10 times then my probability increases that in one of those random 2, 5, or 10 draws in a year I will get a tag.
Post by: Bob33 on February 27, 2013, 04:39:01 PM
Post by: kentrek on February 27, 2013, 05:01:51 PM
an example,if one plans on applying for a mudflow Archery Tag for the next 20 years they can expect a 59.2828 % chance of drawing that tag in those 20 years
Post by: Bob33 on February 27, 2013, 05:37:56 PM
im talking the joint probability of getting one tag out of those two years,not the probability of drawing on the third yearIf the odds the first year are 12 percent and the odds the second year are 13 percent the answer is 23.4 percent.
Post by: kentrek on February 27, 2013, 05:44:38 PM
(494 applicants)*((7 av points)^2)=24206
that should be the number of options from which "they" draw from
i could be wrong tho :dunno:
Post by: idahohuntr on February 27, 2013, 08:07:42 PM
If you were correct that your probability is cumulative or additive with successive draws then the guys who put in 10, 15, 20 years would have higher draw odds than someone putting in for the first time. But this is clearly not the case...and States implementing point systems supports my argument. The systems are designed to increase odds of multi-year applicants...but by your math all these point systems are unnecessary on the incorrect premise that the multi year applicants have higher odds the more years they apply.
In Idaho (with no point system) for example, my Dad has put in for a deer unit with 10% draw odds for 10 years. When I put in for this unit next year for the first time, he and I will have identical draw odds because each draw is an independent event.
Post by: Bob33 on February 27, 2013, 08:12:35 PM
Next year you will have the same odds of drawing a tag in 2014. The odds of him drawing a tag in the 11 year period are much better than yours.
Post by: kentrek on February 27, 2013, 08:26:17 PM
:tup:
Post by: bobcat on February 27, 2013, 08:37:38 PM
Post by: idahohuntr on February 27, 2013, 10:20:26 PM
odds, probability, bla bla bla, I am glad to see somebody else puts together spreadsheets of draw data :chuckle: :chuckle: Maybe my wife won't think Im so crazy after all!!!
Post by: Bob33 on February 27, 2013, 10:26:46 PM
Post by: cwuhunter on February 27, 2013, 10:34:27 PM
I have killed a bull before and i would like if i draw to shoot an above average bull
not nessecarally a monster just one i would love to hang on the wall I guess i dont understand the point buy thing i thought u could buy a point not put in for any tags and then next year have a new point just like i put in for a tag not sure what you mean buy not being able to hunt if i buy a point
You can just buy a "ghost point"
for how much? I didnt know WA did this
Post by: seaduckhunter on February 27, 2013, 10:46:19 PM
Post by: huntnnw on February 28, 2013, 01:14:56 AM
Post by: kentrek on February 28, 2013, 01:56:58 AM
I agree...two different things being discussed. I am talking about your annual draw odds, which do not increase or change based on prior failures in a draw. However, in my Idaho tag example, at the beginning of a period of 10 years there is a 1 - (9/10)^10, or 65% probability of drawing at least one tag in that 10 years. However, these numbers are over a 10 year period...meaning that in 10 years there is still a decent chance or a fair number of hunters (35/100) who will not draw a tag in that 10 year period (these are the guys who support point systems :chuckle:). The long-term cumulative outlook is more abstract/theoretical. Each year, my odds are 10 percent of drawing, irrespective of what happened in prior years. In the 10th year of unsuccessfully drawing I would not call my hunting buddies and tell them "hey, I haven't drawn for 9 years, so my odds are 65% I will draw this year". In fact, my odds are still 10%....that is why I am more critical of the cumulative odds being reported....they are often interpreted/applied incorrectly.
odds, probability, bla bla bla, I am glad to see somebody else puts together spreadsheets of draw data :chuckle: :chuckle: Maybe my wife won't think Im so crazy after all!!!
sweeet we are on the same path :tup:
your not crazy at all...i even have pie charts for the percent categories of weight in my backpack :chuckle:
how can one be too crazy about trying to experiance more about some of the most life changing experiences one can experience ?? sorry drugs dont touch having a bull,that yove worked 6 years for,come screaming into bow range and get dead fast...if only we could market that "rush" to the gen public :tup:
aim steady friends :archery_smiley: