Elk points

[judojudd]

He can ghost point it and still hunt branch antlered bulls on the west side. That's what I would do if I was saving points for the Blues and didn't want to hunt spikes.

That's what I do. Not preferable but there are some great hunts on the westside if you do some homework. When I get to 15+ points I may start spike hunting the eastside unit I'm putting in for (unless I get lucky and get drawn). Ah, the travails of the washington elk system. 

[idahohuntr]

"at least the probabilities keep adding from year to year..so around 10-15 points it shouldnt take too long to get the tag ya want..which is still way to long  gives lots of time to scout tho"

Not exactly sure what you mean here...but your probabilities do not get added from year to year...each draw is an independent event.

[grundy53]

The Margaret hunt is no longer a "quality" hunt just bull so you won't burn any of your quality points...

sent from my typewriter

[kentrek]

"at least the probabilities keep adding from year to year..so around 10-15 points it shouldnt take too long to get the tag ya want..which is still way to long  gives lots of time to scout tho"

Not exactly sure what you mean here...but your probabilities do not get added from year to year...each draw is an independent event.

if thev prob or drawing first year is "x" and the prob of drawing the second year is "y"...the prob of drawing one of those two years is "x"+"y"

statistics comes in handy 

[trophyhunt]

It's already been said but I'll say it again, put in for multi elk so if you get it you can put in for east but hunt the west where you don't have to wait 20+ years to draw a big bull tag.  I have 17 this year and I hope to draw the multi tag so when I don't get drawn I won't miss out on my Wa elk hunt either. Don't get your hopes up of drawing cause you have 9 points, I had my hopes up when I hit 8 points all the way till 13, then I just gave up hoping and realized my odds weren't that much better than when I had 8. No poacher points for me, just getting older and waiting. I don't hunt spikes where I'm putting in because I plan on using mnt cook's help, that will be the only time I pay for a guided hunt in Wa for elk. If you put in for margaret and draw, don't shoot the limping bull with the 10'' long, rotting toe nails. I wouldn't waste my points on margaret, I'd go for the white myself. I wouldn't over look those good little natches tags, with those points and the help of a certain outfitter over there you could end up with a wall hanger. There are some big bulls in the 346, and the guides know where they are at.

[steeleywhopper]

It's already been said but I'll say it again, put in for multi elk so if you get it you can put in for east but hunt the west where you don't have to wait 20+ years to draw a big bull tag.  I have 17 this year and I hope to draw the multi tag so when I don't get drawn I won't miss out on my Wa elk hunt either. Don't get your hopes up of drawing cause you have 9 points, I had my hopes up when I hit 8 points all the way till 13, then I just gave up hoping and realized my odds weren't that much better than when I had 8. No poacher points for me, just getting older and waiting. I don't hunt spikes where I'm putting in because I plan on using mnt cook's help, that will be the only time I pay for a guided hunt in Wa for elk. If you put in for margaret and draw, don't shoot the limping bull with the 10'' long, rotting toe nails. I wouldn't waste my points on margaret, I'd go for the white myself. I wouldn't over look those good little natches tags, with those points and the help of a certain outfitter over there you could end up with a wall hanger. There are some big bulls in the 346, and the guides know where they are at.

My plan exactly!

[idahohuntr]

"at least the probabilities keep adding from year to year..so around 10-15 points it shouldnt take too long to get the tag ya want..which is still way to long  gives lots of time to scout tho"

Not exactly sure what you mean here...but your probabilities do not get added from year to year...each draw is an independent event.

if thev prob or drawing first year is "x" and the prob of drawing the second year is "y"...the prob of drawing one of those two years is "x"+"y"

statistics comes in handy 

Yes, statistics does come in handy, but unfortunately you are not correct.  You are repeating what is refferred to as the Gambler's Fallacy.  Because each years draw is an independent event it is not appropriate to add the probabilities together.  For example, if you flip a coin 20 times and get a heads each time, that does not change the probability of getting a heads on the 21st toss...the probability is still 1/2 (if you are flipping a fair coin of course). 

So, in something like a tag draw suppose I have 15 points and that is ~12% chance of drawing a Dayton bull tag and I do not get drawn.  I put in next year with 16 points and lets assume my draw odds go up to 13% because I have more points. The probability of drawing the second year is not 12+13 = 25%....my draw odds for the second year are still 13%...and they only increased because I have more points...which may not be a correct assumption depending on whether permit levels or hunter applications/point combos increased or decreased.

This seems like too much math for a hunting forum....although all the draws these days darn near require a lawyer and statistician

[Bob33]

If the odds one year are 12% and the odds the second year are 13% , the odds of drawing at least one year are 23.4%.

[pendoreilleadventures]

86.54765432% of all statistics are made up on the spot!!!!  

[idahohuntr]

If the odds one year are 12% and the odds the second year are 13% , the odds of drawing at least one year are 23.4%.

Im just not going to win on this one

I wish what you were saying was true b/c I would have a lot more hope about getting a tag!...but a draw one year has no effect on drawing the second year.  My odds of drawing a tag the second year are not influenced (save for an additional point) by my not drawing in the previous year. 

What you guys are suggesting probability wise would require 2 random draws to occur in the same year with the same hunters/points/tags etc.  Then yes, if we run the draw twice or 5 times or 10 times then my probability increases that in one of those random 2, 5, or 10 draws in a year I will get a tag.

[Bob33]

Your odds the second year are independent of the first, but the odds of drawing in one of the two years is greater than one year alone. The 23.4% is correct.

[kentrek]

im talking the joint probability of getting one tag out of those two years,not the probability of drawing on the third year

an example,if  one plans on applying for a mudflow Archery Tag for the next 20 years they can expect a 59.2828 % chance of drawing that tag in those 20 years

[Bob33]

im talking the joint probability of getting one tag out of those two years,not the probability of drawing on the third year

If the odds the first year are 12 percent and the odds the second year are 13 percent the answer is 23.4 percent.

[kentrek]

btw i got the 24206 # by

(494 applicants)*((7 av points)^2)=24206

that should be the number of options from which "they" draw from



i could be wrong tho 

[idahohuntr]

This is trickier than it appears.  The critical thing here is that each draw is an INDEPENDENT event...that's where I struggle with the numbers you guys are suggesting. Its because of this independence that point systems were designed.

If you were correct that your probability is cumulative or additive with successive draws then the guys who put in 10, 15, 20 years would have higher draw odds than someone putting in for the first time.  But this is clearly not the case...and States implementing point systems supports my argument.  The systems are designed to increase odds of multi-year applicants...but by your math all these point systems are unnecessary on the incorrect premise that the multi year applicants have higher odds the more years they apply. 

In Idaho (with no point system) for example, my Dad has put in for a deer unit with 10% draw odds for 10 years.  When I put in for this unit next year for the first time, he and I will have identical draw odds because each draw is an independent event.