Post by: Bob33 on April 20, 2013, 09:37:51 AM
Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 09:46:47 AM
Post by: snowpack on April 20, 2013, 10:20:12 AM
Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 11:00:13 AM
Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 11:08:52 AM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on April 20, 2013, 11:50:35 AM
As for the native thing. I'm pretty sure we all know about it. However I don't see the point in saying that you have a picture of them doing blah blah blah and then not sharing the picture at all. Might as well just say nothing. :twocents:
Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 01:01:31 PM
I was thinking of making an XL sheet like that myself, glad you did it instead. Now I feel even more lucky for getting my tag in 2011!! ...with 5 points :sry:.I agree with you, it was hard to even say it. I deleted it, without being able to post the pic's what's the point.
As for the native thing. I'm pretty sure we all know about it. However I don't see the point in saying that you have a picture of them doing blah blah blah and then not sharing the picture at all. Might as well just say nothing. :twocents:
Post by: JLS on April 20, 2013, 01:09:06 PM
The wolves will absolutly make a huge impact on the best elk heard in our state and one of the best in the country.
Lentils, garbanzo beans, peas, winter wheat, and Nez Perce members are a much bigger threat to the Blue Mountain herd than wolves are.
Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 01:19:40 PM
The nez perce are definetly making an impact on the elk, I have family that live in Lewiston Id and they have had problems with that tribe since before I was born. I can't think of the other tribe that hunts that area but they are bad also.The wolves will absolutly make a huge impact on the best elk heard in our state and one of the best in the country.
Lentils, garbanzo beans, peas, winter wheat, and Nez Perce members are a much bigger threat to the Blue Mountain herd than wolves are.
Post by: Houndhunter on April 20, 2013, 01:32:23 PM
Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 03:07:21 PM
Post by: kentrek on April 20, 2013, 03:13:15 PM
I can't seem to come up with my percentage of drawing, can someone help me with this? 9,176 names in the hat I have 289 of them, with 2 tags given out. Should be simple but I just can't figure it out. The other tag has 3,462 names in the hat, 289 of them are mine also with just 2 tags. Thanks
6.299% for the first and 16.69 % for the second :tup:
Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 03:16:05 PM
Post by: kentrek on April 20, 2013, 03:24:28 PM
thanks, how did you come up with that so I can right it down. Thanks again. :tup:
[your points^2/((average points^2)*number of applicants)]*number of tags*100 = % odds
Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 03:34:28 PM
Pretty damn sad when you see the real odds, guys with that many points probably think they have a much better chance than they really do. Even if you add more permits it still doesn't increase much.I can't seem to come up with my percentage of drawing, can someone help me with this? 9,176 names in the hat I have 289 of them, with 2 tags given out. Should be simple but I just can't figure it out. The other tag has 3,462 names in the hat, 289 of them are mine also with just 2 tags. Thanks
6.299% for the first and 16.69 % for the second :tup:
Post by: kentrek on April 20, 2013, 03:42:27 PM
Pretty damn sad when you see the real odds, guys with that many points probably think they have a much better chance than they really do. Even if you add more permits it still doesn't increase much.I can't seem to come up with my percentage of drawing, can someone help me with this? 9,176 names in the hat I have 289 of them, with 2 tags given out. Should be simple but I just can't figure it out. The other tag has 3,462 names in the hat, 289 of them are mine also with just 2 tags. Thanks
6.299% for the first and 16.69 % for the second :tup:
yeah thats why i posted that other thread of all the numbers...its kinda funny what some people put in for, i think fish and game needs to do up odds so every one can see the truth behind these draws..it would greatly affect where people apply
Post by: Bob33 on April 20, 2013, 03:42:54 PM
Quote
[your points^2/((average points^2)*number of applicants)]*number of tags*100 = % oddsIt's unfortunately not quite that simple.
Think of flipping a coin and wanting to get heads. If you flip it once, your chance of getting heads is 50%. If you flip it twice, your chance of getting at least one head is not 50% x 2. It is 75%. If you flip it five times, it is still not 100% (it is actually about 97%).
Here's the best way to do it. First, compute the odds of NOT drawing. Your odds of NOT drawing is one minus your odds of drawing. In your example, the odds of drawing is 289 / 9176 or .0314. Your odds of NOT drawing is therefore .9685. Your odds of NOT drawing the second tag is also roughly .9685 (I'll explain in a moment why that is not entirely true.).
Now the easy part: your odds of NOT drawing the first and second tags is .9685 x 9685 or .938. If there are more than two tags, then the odds would be .9685 raised to the power of the number of tags. If your odds of NOT drawing either tag is .938, then your odds of drawing at least one is 1 - .938 = .0619 or 6.19%.
Here is why this is not precise, and why the true odds cannot be computed exactly. When the first tag is drawn, the number of names left in the hat is no longer 9176. How many less? That depends on who was drawn. If the person drawn had 1 point, then there's just one less name in the hat. If the person drawn had 10 points, then the number of names in the hat would be 100 less. Thus your odds on each subsequent draw improve, but by how much depends on who is drawn and you cannot predict that.
It's tough to write a math formula with letters and characters, but here's an attempt:
Y = Your points
T = Total names in the hat (which equals total applications x average points per application)
N = Total permits available
Odds = 1 - { [1-(Y^2)/(A^2) ] ^ N }
Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 03:56:25 PM
Post by: jackelope on April 20, 2013, 04:03:16 PM
Post by: kentrek on April 20, 2013, 04:05:02 PM
Quote[your points^2/((average points^2)*number of applicants)]*number of tags*100 = % oddsIt's unfortunately not quite that simple.
Think of flipping a coin and wanting to get heads. If you flip it once, your chance of getting heads is 50%. If you flip it twice, your chance of getting at least one head is not 50% x 2. It is 75%. If you flip it five times, it is still not 100% (it is actually about 97%).
Here's the best way to do it. First, compute the odds of NOT drawing. Your odds of NOT drawing is one minus your odds of drawing. In your example, the odds of drawing is 289 / 9176 or .0314. Your odds of NOT drawing is therefore .9685. Your odds of NOT drawing the second tag is also roughly .9685 (I'll explain in a moment why that is not entirely true.).
Now the easy part: your odds of NOT drawing the first and second tags is .9685 x 9685 or .938. If there are more than two tags, then the odds would be .9685 raised to the power of the number of tags. If your odds of NOT drawing either tag is .938, then your odds of drawing at least one is 1 - .938 = .0619 or 6.19%.
Here is why this is not precise, and why the true odds cannot be computed exactly. When the first tag is drawn, the number of names left in the hat is no longer 9176. How many less? That depends on who was drawn. If the person drawn had 1 point, then there's just one less name in the hat. If the person drawn had 10 points, then the number of names in the hat would be 100 less. Thus your odds on each subsequent draw improve, but by how much depends on who is drawn and you cannot predict that.
It's tough to write a math formula with letters and characters, but here's an attempt:
Y = Your points
T = Total names in the hat (which equals total applications x average points per application)
N = Total permits available
Odds = 1 - { [1-(Y^2)/(A^2) ] ^ N }
yes you are correct but since the numbers are as result from the years prior and i dont feel like taking the time to do the linear regression to come up with best guess odds for current year, i figured the error from what your talking about would be minimal....except with the units with the large amounts of tags
not sure the difference in figuring the odds of not drawing a tag and then subtracting it from one are compared to just figuring out your odds in the first place :dunno: but what ever works for ya lol
Wow that is completely Chinese to me, when I was in high school the highest math they required was pre-algebra and I graduated in 87'. Thanks for your help guys, kentrek, I saw your post on odds, that was very impressive. Thanks again, now I'm really confused on what to apply for.
id say just look at general odds and not get to crazzy picky with the numbers and then... cross your fingers :tup:
Post by: kentrek on April 20, 2013, 04:12:22 PM
Post by: Bob33 on April 20, 2013, 04:58:59 PM
Post by: JLS on April 20, 2013, 05:09:38 PM
Not the mathematically less inclined, here's a simple formula for Blue Mountains draw odds: "slim and none".
Technically Bob, it's slim and slimmer :chuckle:
Post by: jackelope on April 20, 2013, 05:10:08 PM
Post by: Bob33 on April 20, 2013, 05:13:28 PM
I forgot about that. I know I learned that in my probability class, but it's been a few years.Not the mathematically less inclined, here's a simple formula for Blue Mountains draw odds: "slim and none".
Technically Bob, it's slim and slimmer :chuckle:
Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 05:28:55 PM
Post by: Bob33 on April 20, 2013, 05:43:43 PM
Does this not come as a surprise to anyone?
Post by: kentrek on April 20, 2013, 05:50:11 PM
Post by: JLS on April 20, 2013, 05:55:43 PM
Post by: huntnphool on April 20, 2013, 06:13:05 PM
To circle back to the original thread: why has there been such a significant drop in permits?
Does this not come as a surprise to anyone?
Page 197 of your final wolf proposal says......;
Quote
To accommodate larger elk and deer losses from wolves, reductions in antlerless take and perhaps other restrictions such as shortened hunting seasons or reduced availability of special permits may be needed in some areas where wolves become common.
......Its all good though because the next page has......;
Quote
The presence of wolves may provide an additional benefit for some hunters by enhancing their overall hunting experience. The possibility of seeing or hearing wolves, finding wolf tracks or a wolf kill, or hunting among wolves could give considerable enjoyment to these hunters.
........enjoy! :chuckle:
Post by: Bob33 on April 20, 2013, 06:18:54 PM
Post by: huntnphool on April 20, 2013, 06:21:57 PM
I'm sure wolves have an impact but there were wolves in the Blues last year. Thirty percent drop in one year? :dunno:What units are you considering the Blues? Looking through the regs the percentage drop seems to be higher than 28%.
Post by: Harborhunter on April 20, 2013, 06:24:29 PM
To circle back to the original thread: why has there been such a significant drop in permits?
Does this not come as a surprise to anyone?
Page 197 of your final wolf proposal says......;QuoteTo accommodate larger elk and deer losses from wolves, reductions in antlerless take and perhaps other restrictions such as shortened hunting seasons or reduced availability of special permits may be needed in some areas where wolves become common.
......Its all good though because the next page has......;QuoteThe presence of wolves may provide an additional benefit for some hunters by enhancing their overall hunting experience. The possibility of seeing or hearing wolves, finding wolf tracks or a wolf kill, or hunting among wolves could give considerable enjoyment to these hunters.
........enjoy! :chuckle:
My God, that last quote is a friggin joke. :bash: I have had some pretty darn good hunting experiences without wolves around....What liberal clown wrote that??
Post by: huntnphool on April 20, 2013, 06:25:53 PM
Your WDFW......doesn't it just make you all warm and fuzzy? :chuckle:To circle back to the original thread: why has there been such a significant drop in permits?
Does this not come as a surprise to anyone?
Page 197 of your final wolf proposal says......;QuoteTo accommodate larger elk and deer losses from wolves, reductions in antlerless take and perhaps other restrictions such as shortened hunting seasons or reduced availability of special permits may be needed in some areas where wolves become common.
......Its all good though because the next page has......;QuoteThe presence of wolves may provide an additional benefit for some hunters by enhancing their overall hunting experience. The possibility of seeing or hearing wolves, finding wolf tracks or a wolf kill, or hunting among wolves could give considerable enjoyment to these hunters.
........enjoy! :chuckle:
What liberal clown wrote that??
Post by: Wea300mag on April 20, 2013, 06:27:09 PM
Post by: Bob33 on April 20, 2013, 06:28:10 PM
Check my Excel file in the first post in this thread.I'm sure wolves have an impact but there were wolves in the Blues last year. Thirty percent drop in one year? :dunno:What units are you considering the Blues? Looking through the regs the percentage drop seems to be higher than 28%.
Post by: jackelope on April 20, 2013, 06:33:26 PM
I'm sure wolves have an impact but there were wolves in the Blues last year. Thirty percent drop in one year? :dunno:What units are you considering the Blues? Looking through the regs the percentage drop seems to be higher than 28%.
He's got them all and 28% is the overall average loss.
Post by: Bob33 on April 20, 2013, 06:34:40 PM
Post by: huntnphool on April 20, 2013, 06:36:37 PM
Got it, missed it as part of your signiture.Check my Excel file in the first post in this thread.I'm sure wolves have an impact but there were wolves in the Blues last year. Thirty percent drop in one year? :dunno:What units are you considering the Blues? Looking through the regs the percentage drop seems to be higher than 28%.
Post by: idahohuntr on April 20, 2013, 06:41:22 PM
I too wish WDFW would actually provide estimates of draw odds by hunt/point total. You shouldn't have to have a strong mathematical background to understand your draw odds by point total.
Quote[your points^2/((average points^2)*number of applicants)]*number of tags*100 = % oddsIt's unfortunately not quite that simple.
Think of flipping a coin and wanting to get heads. If you flip it once, your chance of getting heads is 50%. If you flip it twice, your chance of getting at least one head is not 50% x 2. It is 75%. If you flip it five times, it is still not 100% (it is actually about 97%).
Here's the best way to do it. First, compute the odds of NOT drawing. Your odds of NOT drawing is one minus your odds of drawing. In your example, the odds of drawing is 289 / 9176 or .0314. Your odds of NOT drawing is therefore .9685. Your odds of NOT drawing the second tag is also roughly .9685 (I'll explain in a moment why that is not entirely true.).
Now the easy part: your odds of NOT drawing the first and second tags is .9685 x 9685 or .938. If there are more than two tags, then the odds would be .9685 raised to the power of the number of tags. If your odds of NOT drawing either tag is .938, then your odds of drawing at least one is 1 - .938 = .0619 or 6.19%.
Here is why this is not precise, and why the true odds cannot be computed exactly. When the first tag is drawn, the number of names left in the hat is no longer 9176. How many less? That depends on who was drawn. If the person drawn had 1 point, then there's just one less name in the hat. If the person drawn had 10 points, then the number of names in the hat would be 100 less. Thus your odds on each subsequent draw improve, but by how much depends on who is drawn and you cannot predict that.
It's tough to write a math formula with letters and characters, but here's an attempt:
Y = Your points
T = Total names in the hat (which equals total applications x average points per application)
N = Total permits available
Odds = 1 - { [1-(Y^2)/(A^2) ] ^ N }
Post by: Harborhunter on April 20, 2013, 06:54:38 PM
Your WDFW......doesn't it just make you all warm and fuzzy? :chuckle:To circle back to the original thread: why has there been such a significant drop in permits?
Does this not come as a surprise to anyone?
Page 197 of your final wolf proposal says......;QuoteTo accommodate larger elk and deer losses from wolves, reductions in antlerless take and perhaps other restrictions such as shortened hunting seasons or reduced availability of special permits may be needed in some areas where wolves become common.
......Its all good though because the next page has......;QuoteThe presence of wolves may provide an additional benefit for some hunters by enhancing their overall hunting experience. The possibility of seeing or hearing wolves, finding wolf tracks or a wolf kill, or hunting among wolves could give considerable enjoyment to these hunters.
........enjoy! :chuckle:
What liberal clown wrote that??
Haha, something like that. :chuckle: That sure lets you know where the WDFW stands.
Post by: 270Flat on April 20, 2013, 07:14:02 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on April 20, 2013, 07:16:31 PM
wait.....yup...i just had an idea....back to excel :chuckle:Hey Jack!! I'm waiting for the latest XL file...or did it require Access...not access, please please not access.
Post by: Mr Mykiss on April 20, 2013, 07:50:38 PM
Post by: Wea300mag on April 20, 2013, 07:55:39 PM
So really what's the point in buying "ghost points" for any quality hunt?? You never know when your five numbers and the powerball will come up!! :chuckle: :chuckle:
I've been telling that to my friends for years. Put in for the quality permits no matter what and if you get drawn, rearrange your life so you can make the most of it.
Post by: kentrek on April 20, 2013, 07:59:20 PM
wait.....yup...i just had an idea....back to excel :chuckle:Hey Jack!! I'm waiting for the latest XL file...or did it require Access...not access, please please not access.
haha im still getting smarter at the moment,prolly wont be till tommorow,this math stuff gets deep fast :chuckle:....i went back an got the trends for the west side units from the last four years,now i just need to apply that to the odds equations and what not..then i wana figure out a way to make it understandable to everyone thats not a stock broker..prolly post it in the "just for bow guys" thread
So really what's the point in buying "ghost points" for any quality hunt?? You never know when your five numbers and the powerball will come up!! :chuckle: :chuckle:
ghost point are nice for people that cant hunt that particular year..like military or college students...if i draw that oil tag i better not only have a weekend to hunt :bash:
Post by: snowpack on April 20, 2013, 08:16:34 PM
Post by: nwhunter on April 20, 2013, 09:14:42 PM
Post by: dvolmer on April 20, 2013, 10:04:18 PM
Post by: Bob33 on April 21, 2013, 07:29:14 AM
Post by: snowpack on April 21, 2013, 07:37:53 AM
Post by: ChadH on April 21, 2013, 04:07:05 PM
My future?
:chuckle: :chuckle: :chuckle: :chuckle: :chuckle:
Post by: trophyhunt on April 21, 2013, 04:10:43 PM
Get a gov tag or a raffle tag and skip the wait. Aren't the Blues where all those tags get filled anyways?Yup
Post by: BLUEBULLS on April 22, 2013, 09:45:27 AM
Post by: 270Flat on April 22, 2013, 12:35:42 PM
Post by: B.G.hunter on April 22, 2013, 01:57:09 PM
Post by: huntnphool on April 22, 2013, 02:01:56 PM
The tag numbers are now back to where they should be :twocents:+1
Post by: yelp on April 22, 2013, 02:22:17 PM
The tag numbers are now back to where they should be :twocents:
I agree.
Post by: Skillet on April 22, 2013, 02:32:33 PM
Modern = -39%
Archery = -21%
Muzzleloader = -36%
Not to start infighting, but the pain wasn't spread across the groups very well, IMHO. The guys with bangsticks must enjoy sharing the woods with the wolves than the sharp stick guys...
Post by: jackelope on April 22, 2013, 02:45:24 PM
The one thing I can't figure out is why did they increase the archery bull tags in Lick Creek, where muzzleloader and modern decreased?
Poor archery success rates. I think 1 archery tag was filled last year in there?? Tag numbers are relative to success rates among other things. The goal is x amount of bulls killed. If they want 10 bulls killed and there's a 50% success rate, they're going to offer 20 permits. I pulled those numbers out of my hind quarters but you get the idea.
Post by: jackelope on April 22, 2013, 02:47:02 PM
Per numbers from Bob's spreadsheet-
Modern = -39%
Archery = -21%
Muzzleloader = -36%
Not to start infighting, but the pain wasn't spread across the groups very well, IMHO. The guys with bangsticks must enjoy sharing the woods with the wolves than the sharp stick guys...
See my above post. The gun guys(muzz and rifle) had good success rates and the archery guys did not.
Post by: B.G.hunter on April 22, 2013, 02:52:03 PM
But they dropped or stayed the same in every other unit for archery except that one. And Lick Creek is already a rat race with the general cow archery tag. My question is why that one unit?The one thing I can't figure out is why did they increase the archery bull tags in Lick Creek, where muzzleloader and modern decreased?
Poor archery success rates. I think 1 archery tag was filled last year in there?? Tag numbers are relative to success rates among other things. The goal is x amount of bulls killed. If they want 10 bulls killed and there's a 50% success rate, they're going to offer 20 permits. I pulled those numbers out of my hind quarters but you get the idea.
Post by: Maverick on April 22, 2013, 04:11:05 PM
Post by: Landowner on April 22, 2013, 08:29:09 PM
The tag numbers are now back to where they should be :twocents:
Agreed
Post by: bucklucky on April 22, 2013, 10:16:25 PM
Post by: BLUEBULLS on April 22, 2013, 11:00:19 PM
It seems like we saw a peak in the trophy bulls about 5 or 6 years ago. I'd say the numbers are down due to overharvest more than wolves. The wolves probably will get bad but it's not horrible yet. Give it a year or two.
Post by: bucklucky on April 23, 2013, 06:40:13 AM
Post by: igotbigbulls on April 23, 2013, 03:22:04 PM
The nez perce are definetly making an impact on the elk, I have family that live in Lewiston Id and they have had problems with that tribe since before I was born. I can't think of the other tribe that hunts that area but they are bad also.The wolves will absolutly make a huge impact on the best elk heard in our state and one of the best in the country.
Lentils, garbanzo beans, peas, winter wheat, and Nez Perce members are a much bigger threat to the Blue Mountain herd than wolves are.
Umatillas hunt there also. But very few do. Very few.