Blue Mountains - Quality Elk permits drop

[kentrek]

I can't seem to come up with my percentage of drawing, can someone help me with this? 9,176 names in the hat I have 289 of them, with 2 tags given out. Should be simple but I just can't figure it out. The other tag has 3,462 names in the hat, 289 of them are mine also with just 2 tags. Thanks

6.299% for the first and 16.69 % for the second 

Pretty damn sad when you see the real odds, guys with that many points probably think they have a much better chance than they really do. Even if you add more permits it still doesn't increase much.

yeah thats why i posted that other thread of all the numbers...its kinda funny what some people put in for, i think fish and game needs to do up odds so every one can see the truth behind these draws..it would greatly affect where people apply

[Bob33]

[your points^2/((average points^2)*number of applicants)]*number of tags*100 = % odds

It's unfortunately not quite that simple.

Think of flipping a coin and wanting to get heads. If you flip it once, your chance of getting heads is 50%. If you flip it twice, your chance of getting at least one head is not 50% x 2. It is 75%. If you flip it five times, it is still not 100% (it is actually about 97%).

Here's the best way to do it. First, compute the odds of NOT drawing. Your odds of NOT drawing is one minus your odds of drawing. In your example, the odds of drawing is 289 / 9176 or .0314. Your odds of NOT drawing is therefore .9685.  Your odds of NOT drawing the second tag is also roughly .9685 (I'll explain in a moment why that is not entirely true.). 

Now the easy part: your odds of NOT drawing the first and second tags is .9685 x 9685 or .938.  If there are more than two tags, then the odds would be .9685 raised to the power of the number of tags. If your odds of NOT drawing either tag is .938, then your odds of drawing at least one is 1 - .938 = .0619 or 6.19%.

Here is why this is not precise, and why the true odds cannot be computed exactly. When the first tag is drawn, the number of names left in the hat is no longer 9176. How many less? That depends on who was drawn. If the person drawn had 1 point, then there's just one less name in the hat. If the person drawn had 10 points, then the number of names in the hat would be 100 less. Thus your odds on each subsequent draw improve, but by how much depends on who is drawn and you cannot predict that.

It's tough to write a math formula with letters and characters, but here's an attempt:

Y = Your points
T = Total names in the hat (which equals total applications x average points per application)
N = Total permits available

Odds = 1 - { [1-(Y^2)/(A^2) ] ^ N }

[trophyhunt]

Wow that is completely Chinese to me, when I was in high school the highest math they required was pre-algebra and I graduated in 87'. Thanks for your help guys, kentrek, I saw your post on odds, that was very impressive. Thanks again, now I'm really confused on what to apply for.

[jackelope]

I firmly do not  believe there's an accurate way, or even semi-accurate way to calculate draw odds in this state. There's way too many variables. I'm not a math guru by any stretch but I could hold my own back when.

[kentrek]

[your points^2/((average points^2)*number of applicants)]*number of tags*100 = % odds

It's unfortunately not quite that simple.

Think of flipping a coin and wanting to get heads. If you flip it once, your chance of getting heads is 50%. If you flip it twice, your chance of getting at least one head is not 50% x 2. It is 75%. If you flip it five times, it is still not 100% (it is actually about 97%).

Here's the best way to do it. First, compute the odds of NOT drawing. Your odds of NOT drawing is one minus your odds of drawing. In your example, the odds of drawing is 289 / 9176 or .0314. Your odds of NOT drawing is therefore .9685.  Your odds of NOT drawing the second tag is also roughly .9685 (I'll explain in a moment why that is not entirely true.). 

Now the easy part: your odds of NOT drawing the first and second tags is .9685 x 9685 or .938.  If there are more than two tags, then the odds would be .9685 raised to the power of the number of tags. If your odds of NOT drawing either tag is .938, then your odds of drawing at least one is 1 - .938 = .0619 or 6.19%.

Here is why this is not precise, and why the true odds cannot be computed exactly. When the first tag is drawn, the number of names left in the hat is no longer 9176. How many less? That depends on who was drawn. If the person drawn had 1 point, then there's just one less name in the hat. If the person drawn had 10 points, then the number of names in the hat would be 100 less. Thus your odds on each subsequent draw improve, but by how much depends on who is drawn and you cannot predict that.

It's tough to write a math formula with letters and characters, but here's an attempt:

Y = Your points
T = Total names in the hat (which equals total applications x average points per application)
N = Total permits available

Odds = 1 - { [1-(Y^2)/(A^2) ] ^ N }

yes you are correct but since the numbers are as result from the years prior and i dont feel like taking the time to do the linear regression to come up with best guess odds for current year, i figured the error from what your talking about would be minimal....except with the units with the large amounts of tags 

not sure the difference in figuring the odds of not drawing a tag and then subtracting it from one are compared to just figuring out your odds in the first place  but what ever works for ya lol

Wow that is completely Chinese to me, when I was in high school the highest math they required was pre-algebra and I graduated in 87'. Thanks for your help guys, kentrek, I saw your post on odds, that was very impressive. Thanks again, now I'm really confused on what to apply for.

id say just look at general odds and not get to crazzy picky with the numbers and then... cross your fingers 

[kentrek]

wait.....yup...i just had an idea....back to excel 

[Bob33]

Not the mathematically less inclined, here's a simple formula for Blue Mountains draw odds: "slim and none".

[JLS]

Not the mathematically less inclined, here's a simple formula for Blue Mountains draw odds: "slim and none".

Technically Bob, it's slim and slimmer

[jackelope]

...and Slim left town.

[Bob33]

Not the mathematically less inclined, here's a simple formula for Blue Mountains draw odds: "slim and none".

Technically Bob, it's slim and slimmer

I forgot about that. I know I learned that in my probability class, but it's been a few years.

[trophyhunt]

Luck is something I've never had when it comes to drawing in this state, the second year I put in for Idaho I was drawn for 18. I don't know exactly how Colorado or Wyoming work there point system but Wyomings seems to be my favorite. I believe they put 50% of the tags aside for those with max points and when those are gone they throw everyone in the other half. I don't need exact odds, you guys have been great with what you've provided, thats close enough for me.

[Bob33]

To circle back to the original thread: why has there been such a significant drop in permits?

Does this not come as a surprise to anyone?

[kentrek]

with a nearly 30% cut in tags you would think fish and game would justify the reason and let people know whats going on

[JLS]

The bio is Paul Wik, call him and ask.  He's been helpful to me.

[huntnphool]

To circle back to the original thread: why has there been such a significant drop in permits?

Does this not come as a surprise to anyone?

Page 197 of your final wolf proposal says......;

To accommodate larger elk and deer losses from wolves, reductions in antlerless take and perhaps other restrictions such as shortened hunting seasons or reduced availability of special permits may be needed in some areas where wolves become common.

......Its all good though because the next page has......;

The presence of wolves may provide an additional benefit for some hunters by enhancing their overall hunting experience. The possibility of seeing or hearing wolves, finding wolf tracks or a wolf kill, or hunting among wolves could give considerable enjoyment to these hunters.

........enjoy!