Blue Mountains - Quality Elk permits drop

[Bob33]

I'm sure wolves have an impact but there were wolves in the Blues last year. Thirty percent drop in one year? 

[huntnphool]

I'm sure wolves have an impact but there were wolves in the Blues last year. Thirty percent drop in one year? 

What units are you considering the Blues? Looking through the regs the percentage drop seems to be higher than 28%.

[Harborhunter]

To circle back to the original thread: why has there been such a significant drop in permits?

Does this not come as a surprise to anyone?

Page 197 of your final wolf proposal says......;

To accommodate larger elk and deer losses from wolves, reductions in antlerless take and perhaps other restrictions such as shortened hunting seasons or reduced availability of special permits may be needed in some areas where wolves become common.

......Its all good though because the next page has......;

The presence of wolves may provide an additional benefit for some hunters by enhancing their overall hunting experience. The possibility of seeing or hearing wolves, finding wolf tracks or a wolf kill, or hunting among wolves could give considerable enjoyment to these hunters.

........enjoy!

My God, that last quote is a friggin joke.     I have had some pretty darn good hunting experiences without wolves around....What liberal clown wrote that??

[huntnphool]

To circle back to the original thread: why has there been such a significant drop in permits?

Does this not come as a surprise to anyone?

Page 197 of your final wolf proposal says......;

To accommodate larger elk and deer losses from wolves, reductions in antlerless take and perhaps other restrictions such as shortened hunting seasons or reduced availability of special permits may be needed in some areas where wolves become common.

......Its all good though because the next page has......;

The presence of wolves may provide an additional benefit for some hunters by enhancing their overall hunting experience. The possibility of seeing or hearing wolves, finding wolf tracks or a wolf kill, or hunting among wolves could give considerable enjoyment to these hunters.

........enjoy!

What liberal clown wrote that??

Your WDFW......doesn't it just make you all warm and fuzzy?

[Wea300mag]

It's a sad day in WA when we have to give up "real" hunting experiences to feed the wolves.

[Bob33]

I'm sure wolves have an impact but there were wolves in the Blues last year. Thirty percent drop in one year? 

What units are you considering the Blues? Looking through the regs the percentage drop seems to be higher than 28%.

Check my Excel file in the first post in this thread.

[jackelope]

I'm sure wolves have an impact but there were wolves in the Blues last year. Thirty percent drop in one year? 

What units are you considering the Blues? Looking through the regs the percentage drop seems to be higher than 28%.

He's got them all and 28% is the overall average loss.

[Bob33]

Here's an image. Hopefully this works.

[huntnphool]

I'm sure wolves have an impact but there were wolves in the Blues last year. Thirty percent drop in one year? 

What units are you considering the Blues? Looking through the regs the percentage drop seems to be higher than 28%.

Check my Excel file in the first post in this thread.

Got it, missed it as part of your signiture.

[idahohuntr]

Bob33's method is how I estimate draw odds by point total for a given hunt...however, if tag numbers are low then the simpler method described by kentrek will give you a pretty similar answer to the more complicated method.  Higher tag numbers you start to see more divergence in the draw odds between the two methods.

I too wish WDFW would actually provide estimates of draw odds by hunt/point total.  You shouldn't have to have a strong mathematical background to understand your draw odds by point total.

[your points^2/((average points^2)*number of applicants)]*number of tags*100 = % odds

It's unfortunately not quite that simple.

Think of flipping a coin and wanting to get heads. If you flip it once, your chance of getting heads is 50%. If you flip it twice, your chance of getting at least one head is not 50% x 2. It is 75%. If you flip it five times, it is still not 100% (it is actually about 97%).

Here's the best way to do it. First, compute the odds of NOT drawing. Your odds of NOT drawing is one minus your odds of drawing. In your example, the odds of drawing is 289 / 9176 or .0314. Your odds of NOT drawing is therefore .9685.  Your odds of NOT drawing the second tag is also roughly .9685 (I'll explain in a moment why that is not entirely true.). 

Now the easy part: your odds of NOT drawing the first and second tags is .9685 x 9685 or .938.  If there are more than two tags, then the odds would be .9685 raised to the power of the number of tags. If your odds of NOT drawing either tag is .938, then your odds of drawing at least one is 1 - .938 = .0619 or 6.19%.

Here is why this is not precise, and why the true odds cannot be computed exactly. When the first tag is drawn, the number of names left in the hat is no longer 9176. How many less? That depends on who was drawn. If the person drawn had 1 point, then there's just one less name in the hat. If the person drawn had 10 points, then the number of names in the hat would be 100 less. Thus your odds on each subsequent draw improve, but by how much depends on who is drawn and you cannot predict that.

It's tough to write a math formula with letters and characters, but here's an attempt:

Y = Your points
T = Total names in the hat (which equals total applications x average points per application)
N = Total permits available

Odds = 1 - { [1-(Y^2)/(A^2) ] ^ N }

[Harborhunter]

To circle back to the original thread: why has there been such a significant drop in permits?

Does this not come as a surprise to anyone?

Page 197 of your final wolf proposal says......;

To accommodate larger elk and deer losses from wolves, reductions in antlerless take and perhaps other restrictions such as shortened hunting seasons or reduced availability of special permits may be needed in some areas where wolves become common.

......Its all good though because the next page has......;

The presence of wolves may provide an additional benefit for some hunters by enhancing their overall hunting experience. The possibility of seeing or hearing wolves, finding wolf tracks or a wolf kill, or hunting among wolves could give considerable enjoyment to these hunters.

........enjoy!

What liberal clown wrote that??

Your WDFW......doesn't it just make you all warm and fuzzy?

Haha, something like that.      That sure lets you know where the WDFW stands.

[270Flat]

 

[Mr Mykiss]

wait.....yup...i just had an idea....back to excel 

Hey Jack!! I'm waiting for the latest XL file...or did it require Access...not access, please please not access.

[Mr Mykiss]

So really what's the point in buying "ghost points" for any quality hunt?? You never know when your five numbers and the powerball will come up!!

[Wea300mag]

So really what's the point in buying "ghost points" for any quality hunt?? You never know when your five numbers and the powerball will come up!!

I've been telling that to my friends for years. Put in for the quality permits no matter what and if you get drawn, rearrange your life so you can make the most of it.