Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 07:18:25 PM
Post by: Bob33 on April 20, 2013, 07:29:18 PM
Very true, and many don't understand that.
Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 07:52:30 PM
Post by: buckfvr on April 20, 2013, 08:18:54 PM
Post by: elksnout on April 20, 2013, 08:46:00 PM
Post by: pope on April 20, 2013, 09:02:38 PM
Hunt#2023 little naches oct 1st rifle bull hunt had......72,240 names in the hat for 10 permits
I don't typically apply for tags, so correct me if I'm wrong but I think you're allowed to build up to 15 points? If so, you'd have 225 copies of your name in that hat which brings your probability of getting drawn to about 0.003 (or 1/3 of 1%) after 15 years of disappointment. I put in for the Green River quality deer tag a few times because it's close to home, but after looking at the numbers (and the fact you can't get in there to scout), I quit playing the game. I think good hunting is found w/o drawing a tag, by instead putting effort into getting away from hunting pressure and by scouting. This year, I had an opportunity on a really nice buck (yeah, I missed) in the most unlikely place.
Post by: 6x6in6 on April 20, 2013, 09:09:55 PM
It's worse odds than any OIL tag. :chuckle:
Post by: 6x6in6 on April 20, 2013, 09:14:55 PM
Take your last example:There is no cap on the amount of points one can build.Hunt#2023 little naches oct 1st rifle bull hunt had......72,240 names in the hat for 10 permits
I don't typically apply for tags, so correct me if I'm wrong but I think you're allowed to build up to 15 points? If so, you'd have 225 copies of your name in that hat which brings your probability of getting drawn to about 0.003 (or 1/3 of 1%) after 15 years of disappointment. I put in for the Green River quality deer tag a few times because it's close to home, but after looking at the numbers (and the fact you can't get in there to scout), I quit playing the game. I think good hunting is found w/o drawing a tag, by instead putting effort into getting away from hunting pressure and by scouting. This year, I had an opportunity on a really nice buck (yeah, I missed) in the most unlikely place.
Quite a few people have over 20. One of the Wenaha West rifle quality tags went to someone with 37 points last year.
Post by: nwhunter on April 20, 2013, 09:20:40 PM
Post by: 6x6in6 on April 20, 2013, 09:30:17 PM
Click on the blue text at the bottom of each animal type category to see the draw details.
Post by: sakoshooter on April 20, 2013, 09:42:53 PM
That is why I feel that 2nd, 3rd & 4th choices shouldn't be included with 1st choices in raffles.
Post by: KFhunter on April 20, 2013, 09:52:32 PM
Post by: trophyhunt on April 20, 2013, 10:34:02 PM
WHere do you find a list showing how many people put in for a unit and how many points they each had? And yes the odds for good hunts are staggering but someone has to get lucky so we keep playing the game. So would the odds be the same if the points werent squared and you just had the true amount of points you accrued each year? nwhunterI will probably keep playing the game, but I might just switch to the westside where I can hunt the weapon, season and big bulls every year insted of hunting spikes or not at all on the eastside. I wonder if the odds would be the same, I bet they would be, good question. I also agree with some sort of waiting period, but I would prefer a ten point requirement for area's that we consider OIL hunts, like the blue's. Those number's I posted really expanded when I started adding the guys up between 4 to 8, that's what sent the numbers over the charts.
Post by: rtspring on April 20, 2013, 10:58:08 PM
Post by: iRem on April 20, 2013, 11:09:59 PM
Dont like the system. Move somewhere else. Its really that easyI like that system! That's what's been happening for quit some time, maybe not moving out of state but diffenetly hunting out of state.
Post by: Watimberghost on April 20, 2013, 11:44:56 PM
Post by: Opportunist on April 21, 2013, 07:32:15 AM
This is off the WDFW website.
"Under our current system, a hunter’s points are squared and he/she is assigned that number of random numbers. (For example, a hunter with 7 points is assigned 49 (7 X 7) random, computer-generated numbers.) This is done for all hunters. Then the computer throws out all but the best (lowest) number for each hunter. Next, the hunters are ranked by their number - lowest (best number) to highest (worst number). The computer then (starting at the top of the list) looks at a hunter’s first hunt choice selection. If a permit is available for that hunt, it is awarded (the person is drawn for that hunt). If that hunt has already been filled (all permits have been awarded), it looks at the hunter’s second choice. This same process is followed for all of the hunter’s hunt choice selections. Then the computer follows the same process for each hunter."
If you have good luck you can randomly be assigned a low number and draw every year with no points while someone with 20 points may never draw if they have bad luck. None of the draw systems in the different states are perfect and this one is ours.
Post by: idahohuntr on April 21, 2013, 08:16:36 AM
That is not the way your points work in the draw. I copied this off of the WDFW web page. Everyone goes into the draw with their ONE lowest number for each hunt series. Not your mutliplied total sets of numbers.
Reducing everyone down to their lowest number is a step in the draw process, however, it is correct to say that someone with 7 points has 49 "names in the hat" even though it is reduced to his lowest random number. His lowest number was selected from 49 different random numbers. The guy with 1 point was assigned 1 random number.
Post by: Mudman on April 21, 2013, 08:33:06 AM
Post by: SkookumHntr on April 21, 2013, 09:14:06 AM
Post by: HoofsandWings on April 21, 2013, 09:36:23 AM
By you not buying a permit, my odds improve. Now if you can convince 99.99 percent of the usual permit applicants to not apply, my odds of drawing will increase to 100 percent. :IBCOOL:
Post by: autodink13 on April 21, 2013, 04:19:54 PM
So would the odds be the same if the points werent squared and you just had the true amount of points you accrued each year? nwhunter
The odds are better for people with more points. It really depends on the scenario though. For example, lets simplify and say there's 2 people in the draw with 2 points and one with 10 points. True numbers-10/12=83.3% 2/12=16.7% squared points-100/104=96.2% 4/104=3.8%
Lets do one more example. One person has 10points and one person has 11 points. True numbers-11/21=52.38% 10/21=47.62% squared points-121/221=54.75% 100/221=45.25%
Post by: trophyhunt on April 21, 2013, 04:20:20 PM
Post by: Mudman on April 21, 2013, 08:53:53 PM
Post by: bobcat on April 21, 2013, 09:02:10 PM
If you don't like it or don't want to spend the money, then hunt the general seasons. No problem. It's true some of the hunts are nearly impossible to ever draw in a person's lifetime. But there are also good hunts that you could reasonably expect to draw in 5 to 10 years.
Post by: Mudman on April 21, 2013, 09:15:42 PM
Post by: runamuk on April 21, 2013, 09:16:41 PM
Somebody posted the mathematical formula on here a week ago. I ran every decent tag that I apply for, some were 1-2% at best, but most were well under 1%. But guess what, ill be applying again this year just most everyone else. Honestly, most people applying for the same units as me have about the same disgusting odds that I do. So its kind of a sad level playing field. The wdfw loves people like me. The dreams of big bucks and big bulls keep me spending moneyor people could look at this as there is a 98-99% probability you will not draw :tup: I dont play might put in for a doe tag if I feel like spending the money way before I even know if I will be able to hunt, hell I could get hit by a bus tomorrow so buying tags to put in for draws that are a 99% chance of failure seems sort of like asking to be struck by lightning, oddly I know 2 people personally who have been struck by lightning ....
Post by: hunterrcc on April 21, 2013, 11:08:47 PM
Run the numbers for the 1 tag in each of the Colockum rifle tag hunts.
It's worse odds than any OIL tag. :chuckle:
What are you talking about those odds were great for my wife!!!! :chuckle: :chuckle: :chuckle:
I think I will put her in for it again! What are those odds is the question!!!! lol
Post by: HoofsandWings on April 22, 2013, 06:29:30 AM
I sure wouldn't say the system is a joke. We actually have one of the best point systems out of all the western states. (in my opinion)
If you don't like it or don't want to spend the money, then hunt the general seasons. No problem. It's true some of the hunts are nearly impossible to ever draw in a person's lifetime. But there are also good hunts that you could reasonably expect to draw in 5 to 10 years.
:yeah:
Post by: Opportunist on April 22, 2013, 08:24:15 AM
If my name was in the draw 100 times=10 points and my buddy puts in with no points so his name is in the draw one time for his application, my odds at drawing would be much better, versus how it works where we all go in the draw with one random number. Good luck you will draw, bad luck you won't.
I'm not bitching about our system, I play the game in alot of states and like I said in my other post all of the draw systems have their upside and downside, none are perfect. I've been fairly lucky drawing 2 Peaches and one Toutle tag under the current system, so like a good friend of mine always says "I'd rather be lucky than good"
Post by: bobcat on April 22, 2013, 08:38:43 AM
Post by: 6x6in6 on April 22, 2013, 09:17:26 AM
Run the numbers for the 1 tag in each of the Colockum rifle tag hunts.
It's worse odds than any OIL tag. :chuckle:
What are you talking about those odds were great for my wife!!!! :chuckle: :chuckle: :chuckle:
I think I will put her in for it again! What are those odds is the question!!!! lol
:chuckle:
I was trying to send people into a state of depression over their chances of drawing to reduce the applicant count.
You blew that all apart. :chuckle:
Post by: Opportunist on April 22, 2013, 09:22:17 AM
Post by: 6x6in6 on April 22, 2013, 09:23:25 AM
Dont like the system. Move somewhere else. Its really that easyI don't like the system.
I'd like to move elsewhere.
What's really easy is hunt out of state. If one is so incredibly fortunate to draw a good tag in this state, then you make room to make it happen around one's out of state endeavors.
Post by: bobcat on April 22, 2013, 09:30:02 AM
Bobcat, all you did was repeat my first post. Tell me more Mr. Science.
Mr. Science? :dunno: :chuckle:
Sorry I guess I didn't realize there was a rule that says you can't post the same thing that someone else posts. I'll try to refrain in the future. :rolleyes:
Post by: WAcoueshunter on April 22, 2013, 10:44:28 AM
I sure wouldn't say the system is a joke. We actually have one of the best point systems out of all the western states. (in my opinion)
If you don't like it or don't want to spend the money, then hunt the general seasons. No problem. It's true some of the hunts are nearly impossible to ever draw in a person's lifetime. But there are also good hunts that you could reasonably expect to draw in 5 to 10 years.
+1
The number of applicants, number of tags, hunt quality, and draw odds are all interrelated. You can't tweak one of the variables without having an effect on the others.
I like our system as well as (or more than) the other western states in terms of balancing opportunity for newcomers with rewarding those that have applied for many years. Definitely some long odds for some of the hunts. No way around that if you want to keep them "quality". There are crazy long odds for tags in every state. Just try getting an AZ muley Strip tag or Unit 9 or 10 antelope tag, a Missouri breaks sheep tag in MT, one of the high end Colorado muley tags, just about anything in Utah, a rifle Ibex tag in NM, the list goes on and on. Long odds everywhere for the best tags.
Post by: Bob33 on April 22, 2013, 11:26:00 AM
However, analysis has shown that the overall odds of drawing a quality permit are, for the most part, decreasing each year for those with high bonus point counts. Someone with 15 bonus points this year will have 16 bonus points next year, but his odds of drawing a Quality or OIL permit with 16 points next year will probably be worse than drawing a permit this year with 15.
That is because of the large mass of applicants with fewer points that also move up. Take the hunter with 15 points: he has 225 “names in the hat”. Next year he will have 256 names in the hat: 31 more chances to draw. However, assume there are 50 applicants with five points this year. They each have 25 names in the hat for a total of 1,250. Next year, each will have 36 names in the hat: a total of 1,800, so overall odds of the applicant with 16 points will be worse.
As the bell curve bulge moves to the right, draw odds will flatten, decreasing the odds for those at the upper end of drawing.
Therefore, while odds increase each year relative to those with fewer points, the actual odds of drawing are probably worsening for many.
There is no way around this: Washington has many hunters vying for a small quantity of quality permits. While some improvement could be made, no draw system can change those two factors.
Post by: monster on April 22, 2013, 03:54:59 PM
Post by: Bigshooter on April 22, 2013, 04:01:44 PM
As has been pointed out, Washington’s bonus point system squares the bonus points for applicants which should lead to improved draw odds.
However, analysis has shown that the overall odds of drawing a quality permit are, for the most part, decreasing each year for those with high bonus point counts. Someone with 15 bonus points this year will have 16 bonus points next year, but his odds of drawing a Quality or OIL permit with 16 points next year will probably be worse than drawing a permit this year with 15.
That is because of the large mass of applicants with fewer points that also move up. Take the hunter with 15 points: he has 225 “names in the hat”. Next year he will have 256 names in the hat: 31 more chances to draw. However, assume there are 50 applicants with five points this year. They each have 25 names in the hat for a total of 1,250. Next year, each will have 36 names in the hat: a total of 1,800, so overall odds of the applicant with 16 points will be worse.
As the bell curve bulge moves to the right, draw odds will flatten, decreasing the odds for those at the upper end of drawing.
Therefore, while odds increase each year relative to those with fewer points, the actual odds of drawing are probably worsening for many.
There is no way around this: Washington has many hunters vying for a small quantity of quality permits. While some improvement could be made, no draw system can change those two factors.
No draw system can fix this.
Post by: Jingles on April 22, 2013, 04:08:18 PM
Post by: Mudman on April 22, 2013, 09:23:55 PM
All this proves to me is those with the money get to hunt the best places and times by being able to put in for multiple permits year after year while those without the money get Fcensored overWell said Jingles. Im happy with gen. seasons. They really need to address this issue. A few years from now it will change as people will realize they are wasting their money and revenue will drop. Then the people who have dumped money for 10+ years will be angry! I think you should have to hunt ten years before becoming eligble to apply! This is fair and would reduce applicants.
Post by: SkookumHntr on April 23, 2013, 08:44:22 AM
-Yes it can! Be like idaho, make you pic between oil or deer & elk! Right there would cut draw odds in half!! Have the 3day restriction like there was before 96! Those 2 things would be so huge for draw odds!As has been pointed out, Washington’s bonus point system squares the bonus points for applicants which should lead to improved draw odds.
However, analysis has shown that the overall odds of drawing a quality permit are, for the most part, decreasing each year for those with high bonus point counts. Someone with 15 bonus points this year will have 16 bonus points next year, but his odds of drawing a Quality or OIL permit with 16 points next year will probably be worse than drawing a permit this year with 15.
That is because of the large mass of applicants with fewer points that also move up. Take the hunter with 15 points: he has 225 “names in the hat”. Next year he will have 256 names in the hat: 31 more chances to draw. However, assume there are 50 applicants with five points this year. They each have 25 names in the hat for a total of 1,250. Next year, each will have 36 names in the hat: a total of 1,800, so overall odds of the applicant with 16 points will be worse.
As the bell curve bulge moves to the right, draw odds will flatten, decreasing the odds for those at the upper end of drawing.
Therefore, while odds increase each year relative to those with fewer points, the actual odds of drawing are probably worsening for many.
There is no way around this: Washington has many hunters vying for a small quantity of quality permits. While some improvement could be made, no draw system can change those two factors.
No draw system can fix this.
Post by: billdo5 on April 23, 2013, 08:49:33 AM
Post by: Bwana Bob on April 23, 2013, 10:43:20 AM
Plan on hunting out of state maybe once every 5Th year. You can get some good hunting in with left over tags in states like WY and CO.
Four of us bought leftover cow elk tags in WY last Nov. It cost me less that $500 for the tag, hotel and gas as we rode in one rig. Going to buy some doe deer and antelope tags in WY this year. They are a sure thing if you apply. These out of state hunts put some meat in the freezer and take the edge off when you don't draw that special tag here in WA.
I know some can't afford it but two or three guys riding together can buy left over doe deer and antelope tags for $34 each and have a good time and see some new scenery.
Post by: dreamingbig on April 23, 2013, 09:30:27 PM
Post by: bobcat on April 23, 2013, 09:35:12 PM
Quote
It would be better without the points squared.
Better for who?
Post by: fishngamereaper on April 23, 2013, 09:46:59 PM
Post by: dreamingbig on April 24, 2013, 04:03:13 PM
QuoteIt would be better without the points squared.
Better for who?
Everyone! Right now you are losing ground to the field even with max points. Statistics don't lie. Why is it so hard to understand?
Post by: billdo5 on April 25, 2013, 07:06:54 AM
Post by: billdo5 on April 25, 2013, 02:25:07 PM
Post by: snowpack on April 25, 2013, 02:36:33 PM
:yeah: Your odds should keep going down faster because all the other people that also have high points are being squared, so the total of possible selectees goes up (the pool keeps getting bigger).QuoteIt would be better without the points squared.
Better for who?
Everyone! Right now you are losing ground to the field even with max points. Statistics don't lie. Why is it so hard to understand?
Post by: jackmaster on April 25, 2013, 02:36:51 PM
Post by: steeleywhopper on April 26, 2013, 12:13:57 AM
take away the multiple choice, only allow a person to put in for one place, you could increase youth tags and senior and disabled tags as well and it would give the guys that want to hunt the oil hunt alot better shot at it before they are to damn old to wipe their own arse, its that simple, there are bigger fish to fry, not trying to go off topic but if we dont do somethn about predation then we wont be putting in for permits for to much longer or the number of permits are gonna be a hell of alot lower than they already are. cats and wolves need a serious overhaul especially for you blues guys and us wetside hunters when it comes to cats, and from the sounds of it the wetsiders arent to far from having wolf issues either :twocents:
I say go back to the old days. Example..If you put in for a special permit you don't get to hunt on opening day (Saturday) , you have to wait till Monday to hunt. You only get one choice in each category. I know it will never happen due to the monies it would cut out of the Democraps pockets, but all I have left is a crumb of hope I will draw and the right to bear arms!
Post by: Alan K on April 26, 2013, 06:29:54 AM
As has been pointed out, Washington’s bonus point system squares the bonus points for applicants which should lead to improved draw odds.
However, analysis has shown that the overall odds of drawing a quality permit are, for the most part, decreasing each year for those with high bonus point counts. Someone with 15 bonus points this year will have 16 bonus points next year, but his odds of drawing a Quality or OIL permit with 16 points next year will probably be worse than drawing a permit this year with 15.
That is because of the large mass of applicants with fewer points that also move up. Take the hunter with 15 points: he has 225 “names in the hat”. Next year he will have 256 names in the hat: 31 more chances to draw. However, assume there are 50 applicants with five points this year. They each have 25 names in the hat for a total of 1,250. Next year, each will have 36 names in the hat: a total of 1,800, so overall odds of the applicant with 16 points will be worse.
As the bell curve bulge moves to the right, draw odds will flatten, decreasing the odds for those at the upper end of drawing.
Therefore, while odds increase each year relative to those with fewer points, the actual odds of drawing are probably worsening for many.
There is no way around this: Washington has many hunters vying for a small quantity of quality permits. While some improvement could be made, no draw system can change those two factors.
That right there is it. Sure, your odds are going down, but everyone's odds are. That's the nature of a system where everyone has a chance to draw. The number of people applying is increasing, so everyone odds go down. Even in a system that was 100% random, the odds of drawing would be going down assuming the same people keep applying, and new applicant's join in each year. Only difference with ours is that the longer you've put in, the better your odds relative to those who have applied for a shorter period of time.
I think our system is the best around. Only thing I'd do is increase the hunt choices by adding 1 rut hunt permits for every GMU in the state that holds deer or elk, and limit hunt choices to 1. Spread the people out across more hunt choices, and limiting everyone to their top choice would do wonders for odds.
Post by: danderson on April 26, 2013, 07:12:58 AM
Post by: billdo5 on April 26, 2013, 07:31:25 AM
Post by: danderson on April 26, 2013, 07:40:18 AM