Some quality hunts, the real numbers of guys in the hat! Shocking!

[bobcat]

With 10 points your name IS "in the hat" 100 times. That's how our point system works. So you'd have 100 chances to get the lowest number possible. You actually get 100 random numbers, but only the lowest one is used. The drawing is basically done at that point. All that is left to do is to go through the applications and assign permits beginning with the lowest random number in that permit category. When they get to your number, if there are permits available for your first choice, you just "drew" that permit. If your first choice has no permits left, they go to your second choice. If any of those are available, you "drew" that permit.

[6x6in6]

Run the numbers for the 1 tag in each of the Colockum rifle tag hunts.
It's worse odds than any OIL tag.   

What are you talking about those odds were great for my wife!!!!

I think I will put her in for it again!  What are those odds is the question!!!! lol

 
I was trying to send people into a state of depression over their chances of drawing to reduce the applicant count.
You blew that all apart. 

[Opportunist]

Bobcat, all you did was repeat my first post. Tell me more Mr. Science.

[6x6in6]

Dont like the system. Move somewhere else.  Its really that easy

I don't like the system.
I'd like to move elsewhere.
What's really easy is hunt out of state.  If one is so incredibly fortunate to draw a good tag in this state, then you make room to make it happen around one's out of state endeavors.

[bobcat]

Bobcat, all you did was repeat my first post. Tell me more Mr. Science.

Mr. Science?      

Sorry I guess I didn't realize there was a rule that says you can't post the same thing that someone else posts. I'll try to refrain in the future.   

[WAcoueshunter]

I sure wouldn't say the system is a joke. We actually have one of the best point systems out of all the western states. (in my opinion)

If you don't like it or don't want to spend the money, then hunt the general seasons. No problem. It's true some of the hunts are nearly impossible to ever draw in a person's lifetime. But there are also good hunts that you could reasonably expect to draw in 5 to 10 years.

+1

The number of applicants, number of tags, hunt quality, and draw odds are all interrelated.  You can't tweak one of the variables without having an effect on the others.

I like our system as well as (or more than) the other western states in terms of balancing opportunity for newcomers with rewarding those that have applied for many years.  Definitely some long odds for some of the hunts.  No way around that if you want to keep them "quality".  There are crazy long odds for tags in every state.  Just try getting an AZ muley Strip tag or Unit 9 or 10 antelope tag, a Missouri breaks sheep tag in MT, one of the high end Colorado muley tags, just about anything in Utah, a rifle Ibex tag in NM, the list goes on and on.  Long odds everywhere for the best tags.

[Bob33]

As has been pointed out, Washington’s bonus point system squares the bonus points for applicants which should lead to improved draw odds.

However, analysis has shown that the overall odds of drawing a quality permit are, for the most part, decreasing each year for those with high bonus point counts. Someone with 15 bonus points this year will have 16 bonus points next year, but his odds of drawing a Quality or OIL permit with 16 points next year will probably be worse than drawing a permit this year with 15.

That is because of the large mass of applicants with fewer points that also move up. Take the hunter with 15 points: he has 225 “names in the hat”. Next year he will have 256 names in the hat: 31 more chances to draw. However, assume there are 50 applicants with five points this year. They each have 25 names in the hat for a total of 1,250. Next year, each will have 36 names in the hat: a total of 1,800, so overall odds of the applicant with 16 points will be worse.

As the bell curve bulge moves to the right, draw odds will flatten, decreasing the odds for those at the upper end of drawing.

Therefore, while odds increase each year relative to those with fewer points, the actual odds of drawing are probably worsening for many.

There is no way around this: Washington has many hunters vying for a small quantity of quality permits. While some improvement could be made, no draw system can change those two factors.

[monster]

Its called a lottery          You will never know if you don't play    Stop bitching and don't apply  It will only increase the odds for those who do every year 

[Bigshooter]

As has been pointed out, Washington’s bonus point system squares the bonus points for applicants which should lead to improved draw odds.

However, analysis has shown that the overall odds of drawing a quality permit are, for the most part, decreasing each year for those with high bonus point counts. Someone with 15 bonus points this year will have 16 bonus points next year, but his odds of drawing a Quality or OIL permit with 16 points next year will probably be worse than drawing a permit this year with 15.

That is because of the large mass of applicants with fewer points that also move up. Take the hunter with 15 points: he has 225 “names in the hat”. Next year he will have 256 names in the hat: 31 more chances to draw. However, assume there are 50 applicants with five points this year. They each have 25 names in the hat for a total of 1,250. Next year, each will have 36 names in the hat: a total of 1,800, so overall odds of the applicant with 16 points will be worse.

As the bell curve bulge moves to the right, draw odds will flatten, decreasing the odds for those at the upper end of drawing.

Therefore, while odds increase each year relative to those with fewer points, the actual odds of drawing are probably worsening for many.

There is no way around this: Washington has many hunters vying for a small quantity of quality permits. While some improvement could be made, no draw system can change those two factors.

No draw system can fix this.

[Jingles]

All this proves to me is those with the money get to hunt the best places and times by being able to put in for multiple permits year after year while those without the money get Fcensored over

[Mudman]

All this proves to me is those with the money get to hunt the best places and times by being able to put in for multiple permits year after year while those without the money get Fcensored over

Well said Jingles.  Im happy with gen. seasons.  They really need to address this issue.  A few years from now it will change as people will realize they are wasting their money and revenue will drop.  Then the people who have dumped money for 10+ years will be angry!  I think you should have to hunt ten years before becoming eligble to apply!  This is fair and would reduce applicants.

[SkookumHntr]

As has been pointed out, Washington’s bonus point system squares the bonus points for applicants which should lead to improved draw odds.

However, analysis has shown that the overall odds of drawing a quality permit are, for the most part, decreasing each year for those with high bonus point counts. Someone with 15 bonus points this year will have 16 bonus points next year, but his odds of drawing a Quality or OIL permit with 16 points next year will probably be worse than drawing a permit this year with 15.

That is because of the large mass of applicants with fewer points that also move up. Take the hunter with 15 points: he has 225 “names in the hat”. Next year he will have 256 names in the hat: 31 more chances to draw. However, assume there are 50 applicants with five points this year. They each have 25 names in the hat for a total of 1,250. Next year, each will have 36 names in the hat: a total of 1,800, so overall odds of the applicant with 16 points will be worse.

As the bell curve bulge moves to the right, draw odds will flatten, decreasing the odds for those at the upper end of drawing.

Therefore, while odds increase each year relative to those with fewer points, the actual odds of drawing are probably worsening for many.

There is no way around this: Washington has many hunters vying for a small quantity of quality permits. While some improvement could be made, no draw system can change those two factors.

No draw system can fix this.

-Yes it can! Be like idaho, make you pic between oil or deer & elk! Right there would cut draw odds in half!! Have the 3day restriction like there was before 96! Those 2 things would be so huge for draw odds!

[billdo5]

ive been drawn two years in a row so i dont get consider it wasting my money but its just luck.... people will continue buying them too... Look at the Champion/Hancock permits the prices were at 350$ this year and most people just put in to try and get drawn for the elk hunt.... And they dont consider that a waste of money.....

[Bwana Bob]

Like some one already said, think of drawing a special tag as icing on the cake. If you draw it will be like hitting lotto. Spending more time in the areas you hunt  during the reg season will increase your chances of success.
Plan on hunting out of state maybe once every 5Th year. You can get some good hunting in with left over tags in states like WY and CO.
Four of us bought leftover cow elk tags in WY last Nov. It cost me less that $500 for the tag, hotel and gas as we rode in one rig. Going to buy some doe deer and antelope tags in WY this year. They are a sure thing if you apply. These out of state hunts put some meat in the freezer and take the edge off when you don't draw that special tag here in WA.
I know some can't afford it but two or three guys riding together can buy left over doe deer and antelope tags for $34 each and have a good time and see some new scenery.

[dreamingbig]

It is a lottery system with the odds getting worse and worse every year.  It would be better without the points squared.